2023-2024 Expectations

[GoldenEagles03]

We already know

Kolek
Jones
Mitchell
OMax
Oso

is good enough to win the Big East.

Looking at the backup unit...how many games do you think they'd win in the Big East?

Jones
Norman
Ross
Joplin
Gold
---
Lowery
Amadou

Could they finish better than 11th in the Conference?

Would they win more than Georgetown did last year?

[Daniel]

The Bi* East is going to be brutal next year even for the starting lineup.  It will be the BEast.

[brewcity77]

The Bi* East is going to be brutal next year even for the starting lineup.  It will be the BEast.

I keep hearing this, but looking team by team, I'm really not sure. Last year, Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown were the clear bottom. Based on roster changes, maybe Georgetown moves up a little, but I see no reason to think Butler and DePaul aren't worse, or that St. John's and Seton Hall aren't poised to drop right down with them.

At the top, Creighton is probably about the same, UConn will be worse unless they get at least Jackson back (seems unlikely). Xavier almost certainly worse with all they lost, Villanova a bit better, but they did lose a lot and need a healthy Justin Moore. Which leaves Providence, who is probably the same talent-wise, but far worse on the bench.

I keep hearing how this will be the best league next year, but it looks worse than last year.

[Uncle Rico]

I keep hearing this, but looking team by team, I'm really not sure. Last year, Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown were the clear bottom. Based on roster changes, maybe Georgetown moves up a little, but I see no reason to think Butler and DePaul aren't worse, or that St. John's and Seton Hall aren't poised to drop right down with them.

At the top, Creighton is probably about the same, UConn will be worse unless they get at least Jackson back (seems unlikely). Xavier almost certainly worse with all they lost, Villanova a bit better, but they did lose a lot and need a healthy Justin Moore. Which leaves Providence, who is probably the same talent-wise, but far worse on the bench.

I keep hearing how this will be the best league next year, but it looks worse than last year.

You must be fun at parties

[Viper]

You must be fun at parties

get that man a Bud Light

[brewcity77]

You must be fun at parties

Only at Marquette parties, because I think our returning players and developing freshmen will be better. The rest of the league can suck eggs.

[Jay Bee]

get that man a Bud Light

Seems like "they" already had a few aina

[The Sultan]

get that man a Bud Light

How many times are you going to bring up this "joke" before you realize it falls flat...as a Bud Light.

[The Equalizer]

I keep hearing this, but looking team by team, I'm really not sure. Last year, Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown were the clear bottom. Based on roster changes, maybe Georgetown moves up a little, but I see no reason to think Butler and DePaul aren't worse, or that St. John's and Seton Hall aren't poised to drop right down with them.

At the top, Creighton is probably about the same, UConn will be worse unless they get at least Jackson back (seems unlikely). Xavier almost certainly worse with all they lost, Villanova a bit better, but they did lose a lot and need a healthy Justin Moore. Which leaves Providence, who is probably the same talent-wise, but far worse on the bench.

I keep hearing how this will be the best league next year, but it looks worse than last year.

This is the type of logic that drove a lot of those 9th-place predictions for MU last season.

There are two things that we should have taken from the first couple of seasons in the insta-transfer era:

1. You can't conclude a team will be worse simply because players leave.  MU lost Lewis, Morsell, Kuath, and Elliot. We got better. 

Similarly, I think it's wrong to conclude that UConn will be worse just because they have some players leave. Arguably on paper UConn has far more left on their bench going into next season than what we had heading into 2022-23. 

2. You can't conclude that incoming transfers that were either little used or coming from lower-level programs won't be significantly better when exposed to Big East-level facilities, coaching, training, and teammates.  Tristan Newton (AAC), Tyler Kolek (A10), Noah Horchler (A-Sun), Souley Boum (C-USA), Baylor Scheierman (Summit), Joel Soriano (A-10), Ryan Hawkins (D-2) and Joey Calcaterra (WCC) have come into the Big East over the last several years and all significantly outperformed what might have been expected based on playing previously at a lower level. 

[PointWarrior]

I keep hearing this, but looking team by team, I'm really not sure. Last year, Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown were the clear bottom. Based on roster changes, maybe Georgetown moves up a little, but I see no reason to think Butler and DePaul aren't worse, or that St. John's and Seton Hall aren't poised to drop right down with them.

At the top, Creighton is probably about the same, UConn will be worse unless they get at least Jackson back (seems unlikely). Xavier almost certainly worse with all they lost, Villanova a bit better, but they did lose a lot and need a healthy Justin Moore. Which leaves Providence, who is probably the same talent-wise, but far worse on the bench.

I keep hearing how this will be the best league next year, but it looks worse than last year.

Another COLE dimension - every other BEast team gets better and Marquette gets worse.  Every year.

[DoctorV]

I keep hearing this, but looking team by team, I'm really not sure. Last year, Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown were the clear bottom. Based on roster changes, maybe Georgetown moves up a little, but I see no reason to think Butler and DePaul aren't worse, or that St. John's and Seton Hall aren't poised to drop right down with them.

At the top, Creighton is probably about the same, UConn will be worse unless they get at least Jackson back (seems unlikely). Xavier almost certainly worse with all they lost, Villanova a bit better, but they did lose a lot and need a healthy Justin Moore. Which leaves Providence, who is probably the same talent-wise, but far worse on the bench.

I keep hearing how this will be the best league next year, but it looks worse than last year.

Good post.

That said, hard to say if UConn will be better or worse in any case because
1- they will almost certainly be better in conference than this past season.
2- they will almost certainly be worse outside of it.

Unless they win another natty, which they won't, they will have an overall "worse" season but almost certainly a better BE conf season.
I'd be pretty surprised if they ended up with a worse conference record even if Jackson leaves.
As equalizer noted, their guys that will step up and step in are very good.

[DoctorV]

This is the type of logic that drove a lot of those 9th-place predictions for MU last season.

There are two things that we should have taken from the first couple of seasons in the insta-transfer era:

1. You can't conclude a team will be worse simply because players leave.  MU lost Lewis, Morsell, Kuath, and Elliot. We got better. 

Similarly, I think it's wrong to conclude that UConn will be worse just because they have some players leave. Arguably on paper UConn has far more left on their bench going into next season than what we had heading into 2022-23. 

2. You can't conclude that incoming transfers that were either little used or coming from lower-level programs won't be significantly better when exposed to Big East-level facilities, coaching, training, and teammates.  Tristan Newton (AAC), Tyler Kolek (A10), Noah Horchler (A-Sun), Souley Boum (C-USA), Baylor Scheierman (Summit), Joel Soriano (A-10), Ryan Hawkins (D-2) and Joey Calcaterra (WCC) have come into the Big East over the last several years and all significantly outperformed what might have been expected based on playing previously at a lower level.

Excellent.

One could say that recruiting, the transfer portal, and pre-season expectations are a total crapshoot.

Marquette went from being a squad with a new coach that brought in a bunch of no name guys that overachieved, to losing its 2/3 best overall players according to some (admittedly not advance metrics or efficiency best players), to being predicted 9th in conference with those returning players that everyone had seen for a full season with a solo addition that didn't contribute due to injury, to a prognosticated top 5 team next season.

During this entire time, a full offseason and another half offseason, Marquette has added 1 player in the portal.
Most other teams have added/subtracted much much more.

Kentucky has 3 top 5 recruits in this upcoming class.

Arkansas has the best transfer portal in the history of transfer portals with not much to show for it.

Rick Pitino has like 4 guys on scholarship.

I don't even know what I'm saying anymore, but crapshoot

[jfp61]

I keep hearing this, but looking team by team, I'm really not sure. Last year, Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown were the clear bottom. Based on roster changes, maybe Georgetown moves up a little, but I see no reason to think Butler and DePaul aren't worse, or that St. John's and Seton Hall aren't poised to drop right down with them.

At the top, Creighton is probably about the same, UConn will be worse unless they get at least Jackson back (seems unlikely). Xavier almost certainly worse with all they lost, Villanova a bit better, but they did lose a lot and need a healthy Justin Moore. Which leaves Providence, who is probably the same talent-wise, but far worse on the bench.

I keep hearing how this will be the best league next year, but it looks worse than last year.

I agree.

Big East Rankings (so far)

Tier 1
Marquette and Creighton (they will have shockingly similar team efficiencies.) Both are between 5 and 15
UConn (Has a high ceiling and a very low floor, they will start multiple freshmen) (From like 2- 28)

( I edited this because I left Newton off of Uconn's roster like a genius.)


Tier 2
Villanova (from 10-40)
Providence (lower ceiling than UConn, similar floor (15-60)

Tier 3
St. Johns (30- 95)
Depaul (50-110)

Tier 4
Seton Hall (75-130) they somehow have less talent than Depaul when you look at it. It is just Richmond.

Tier 5
Georgetown (80-170)
Butler (80-200)



I expect Uconn, St. Johns, and Hall to keep adding. But we'll see.

[DoctorV]

Jfp61 you are a great poster and I really appreciate all your data, but there no way that

1- Nova is a better team than UConn
2- DePaul is a better team than SH

#1 should be self explanatory. Don't care who is back and who moves where in the portal, haven't even paid that close attention because coach Shaka has kinda made the portal mute for me, but there is no chance Villanova is better than UConn.

#2 is I guess debatable but coach Shaheen has has an elite defensive team both at a lower level and most recently at SH this past season.
I'm much more confident that he builds a defensive juggernaut that can win games than "blue,blue" who hasn't quite gotten anything together with the Demons.
Best thing about DePaul in recent memory is what Max Strus is doing in the NBA.

[PointWarrior]

Good post.

That said, hard to say if UConn will be better or worse in any case because
1- they will almost certainly be better in conference than this past season.
2- they will almost certainly be worse outside of it.

Unless they win another natty, which they won't, they will have an overall "worse" season but almost certainly a better BE conf season.
I'd be pretty surprised if they ended up with a worse conference record even if Jackson leaves.
As equalizer noted, their guys that will step up and step in are very good.

Why is is certain UConn will be better in conference? 

[jfp61]

Jfp61 you are a great poster and I really appreciate all your data, but there no way that

1- Nova is a better team than UConn
2- DePaul is a better team than SH

#1 should be self explanatory. Don't care who is back and who moves where in the portal, haven't even paid that close attention because coach Shaka has kinda made the portal mute for me, but there is no chance Villanova is better than UConn.

#2 is I guess debatable but coach Shaheen has has an elite defensive team both at a lower level and most recently at SH this past season.
I'm much more confident that he builds a defensive juggernaut that can win games than "blue,blue" who hasn't quite gotten anything together with the Demons.
Best thing about DePaul in recent memory is what Max Strus is doing in the NBA.

1. I screwed up on UConn and Left Newton off the roster. UCONN is (3-29) ahead of Nova. In the Tier 1 with the High Ceiling and the lowest floor.

2. Depaul is a better roster than Seton Hall today... And until Shaheen lands someone halfway decent, he might not be able to get guys.

[The Lens]

St. John's will be a top 5-6 team. That's a no brainer.

Most likely Cooley will have a bye til the quarterfinals. 

Don't underestimate those MFers.

[DoctorV]

Why is is certain UConn will be better in conference?

Just because they underachieved their abilities in conference, by a lot.

I wouldn't say it's certain, but I'd definitely wager they have a better conference season in 23/24.

In the same token, I wouldn't say it's certain, but I'd probably wager that Marquette would have a worse conference season in 23/24.
If OMax returns or if a big splash comes thru the portal id reconsider, but chances are that it's very hard to repeat that feat

[Viper]

How many times are you going to bring up this "joke" before you realize it falls flat...as a Bud Light.

chill bro, maybe kick back with a ...Bu...beer or two. 😉

[Uncle Rico]

UConn has the nation's 3rd best class coming in.  I don't know how it gets put together on the court but the machine has been restarted in Storrs.  Dismiss them at your peril

[Jay Bee]

Just because they underachieved their abilities in conference, by a lot.

I wouldn't say it's certain, but I'd definitely wager they have a better conference season in 23/24.

In the same token, I wouldn't say it's certain, but I'd probably wager that Marquette would have a worse conference season in 23/24.
If OMax returns or if a big splash comes thru the portal id reconsider, but chances are that it's very hard to repeat that feat

100%. With or w/o OMax I'd project MU to have a worse Conf showing this year. And UCONN to improve upon their prior year mark.

All about the comps

[Goose]

If Omax is back or a replacement is landed I think MU will be a better team next year, but do not think they will come close to matching the W-L record. 17-3 might not happen again for quite some time by MU or anyone in the BE.

[Scoop Snoop]

If Omax is back or a replacement is landed I think MU will be a better team next year, but do not think they will come close to matching the W-L record. 17-3 might not happen again for quite some time by MU or anyone in the BE.

This is pretty much where I am Goose, with the exception that I think Marquette will be better regardless of "if Omax is back or a replacement landed" I'm basing that mostly on the experience of returnees (and their working with the staff preseason) and our promising freshmen. Shaka can find a way to take care of the probable loss of Omax by restructuring the team somewhat. Add it all up and I think we are a better team. Add in Omax returning and watch out!

Agree completely about our 17-3 record. It was a lot of fun, but we do not need to repeat and have it as a benchmark.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

UConn has the nation's 3rd best class coming in.  I don't know how it gets put together on the court but the machine has been restarted in Storrs.  Dismiss them at your peril

Today's paper has Danny Hurley saying to have patience and next year's team will shakeout in due time.
UConn is going on a European playing tour this summer also.

[The Equalizer]

Today's paper has Danny Hurley saying to have patience and next year's team will shakeout in due time.
UConn is going on a European playing tour this summer also.

What coach ever talks up his own team?  Before the end of the summer Shaka will likely be telling MU fans to temper expectations given all the coaching upgrades and transfers coming into the league.

Meanwhile, Villanova just landed Maryland's #2 scorer Hakim Hart.  If he doesn't push them up into the top Big East tier, they're getting a lot closer.