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Author Topic: 2023-2024 Expectations  (Read 53334 times)

brewcity77

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #300 on: June 02, 2023, 03:29:58 PM »
-If this teams stays healthy anything less than a 3 seed and a Sweet 16 will be disappointing. GE03 mentioning the possibility of a 6 to 8 seed is amusing.

They might once again be the 6-8 seed. But they won't be given a 6-8 seed
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Jay Bee

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #301 on: June 02, 2023, 03:52:54 PM »

-But who’s to say Oso, Kam and Kolek can’t continue to improve significantly and reach another level?

-If this teams stays healthy anything less than a 3 seed and a Sweet 16 will be disappointing. GE03 mentioning the possibility of a 6 to 8 seed is amusing.

<Raises Hand> on first point

On second point, 6 seems reasonable to me.
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StillAWarrior

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #302 on: June 02, 2023, 04:10:23 PM »
Am I remembering correctly that the Italy trip allows MU to start practicing earlier? Does anyone have information on how much additional gym time with coaches the freshman will have going into the season because of the trip?
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Jay Bee

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #303 on: June 02, 2023, 04:17:56 PM »
Am I remembering correctly that the Italy trip allows MU to start practicing earlier? Does anyone have information on how much additional gym time with coaches the freshman will have going into the season because of the trip?

10 days prior I believe. Let me look up later. Frosh can participate if academics are in order
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jfp61

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #304 on: June 02, 2023, 06:00:38 PM »

-who’s to say Oso, Kam and Kolek can’t continue to improve significantly and reach another level? Maybe Stevie becomes much more consistent from deep. Not to mention the continuity of all these guys playing together another season.

-Anything from the freshman is a bonus and you know at least one will end up a contributor.

-If this teams stays healthy anything less than a 3 seed and a Sweet 16 will be disappointing. GE03 mentioning the possibility of a 6 to 8 seed is amusing.


As to Kolek, Oso and Kam. I'll say it.

I'll just do a stat nerd thing for two seconds. Looking at evanmiya, Kolek was the 11th best player in college basketball last year, Oso was 44th, and Kam Jones was 69th (noice). Here is a complete list of guys ranked that highly that MU has had before that back until 2012. 2018-19 Sam Hauser (50th), Markus Howard (60th), Jae Crowder (5th). That is it.

Improvement from this level is difficult. Improvement again for all three so at the same time, seemingly impossible. I like Oso as a long time pro, but that is alot to expect Kolek and Kam to improve.

Personally, it is hard to me to think that the two guards haven't nearly maxed out their defensive output.

2nd point

Its reasonable.
might quible and say 3 seed and the sweet 16 depend on matchups. But its close.

I'll say 4 seed and not set anything beyond a first round win.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2023, 07:15:06 PM by jfp61 »

brewcity77

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #305 on: June 02, 2023, 06:30:40 PM »
As to Kolek, Oso and Kam. I'll say it.

I'll just do a stat nerd thing for two seconds. Looking at evanmiya, Kolek was the 11th best player in college basketball last year, Oso was 44th, and Kam Jones was 69th (noice). Here is a complete list of guys ranked that highly that MU has had before that back until 2012. 2018-19 Sam Hauser (50th), Markus Howard (60th), Jae Crowder (5th). That is it.

Improvement from this level is difficult. Improvement again for all three so at the same time, seemingly impossible. I like Oso as a long time pro, but that is alot to expect Kolek and Kam to improve.

Personally, s hard to me to think that the two guards haven't nearly maxed out their defensive output.

2nd point

Its reasonable.
might quible and say 3 seed and the sweet 16 depend on matchups. But its close.

I'll say 4 seed and not set anything beyond a first round win.

Not a huge sample size, but I looked at the top-50 on EvanMiya from 2022 and compared them to 2023 results. I may have missed some as it was a quick scan, and I left off guys like Justin Moore who was injured much of the year, but here are some comparisons:

Improved
Zach Edey 11 --> 1
Anton Watson 23 --> 5
Marcus Sasser 36 --> 8
Jamal Shead 37 --> 29
Baylor Scheiermann 40 --> 26
Santiago Vescovi 50 --> 39

Still Really Good
Azoulis Tubelis 8 --> 7
Oscar Tshiebwe 3 --> 17
Drew Timme 5 --> 15
Xavier Johnson 38 --> 54

Notable Decline
Josiah-Jordan James 19 --> 72
Hunter Dickinson 44 --> 76
Dujuan Harris 39 --> 93
Jalen Wilson 43 --> 114
Armando Bacot 7 --> 137

Obviously Kam falls just outside, but there's precedent for even guys at Tyler's level to improve (I'll take 11 --> 1 next year  ;D ) and certainly room for Oso and Kam to improve or sustain where they are at.

I do think the most likely areas for improvement come from guys like Ross, Gold, or an unexpected freshman to blossom early, but even our best players getting better wouldn't be an outlandish expectation, and 80% of the top-15 players like TK out of the (admittedly small) sample stayed in the top-20.
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MU82

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #306 on: June 02, 2023, 07:07:39 PM »
Removing the best defender from an average defensive team is usually not a recipe for success. That's my concern with next season. Replacing OMax with Joplin is a plus for the offense and a minus for the defense. Unfortunately, I don't think our offense can get much better. I do think our defense could get a lot worse.

To counter this we either need:
1. To add a defensive minded transfer to replace OMax
2. See tremendous defensive improvement from Joplin (I'm skeptical given his body type and athleticism)
3. See tremendous defensive improvement from those around Joplin to cover for the drop in defensive ability (more optimistic about this one)
4. Have one or more of the newbies be tremendous defensively (heard good things about Norman and Lowery's defense but wish we had a guy who could defend the 4 at a high level coming in)
5. Some combination of the above

Don't get me wrong, I still expect a season on par with last season or better. I just think OMax is a bigger loss than some are willing to admit

I agree with lots of this, but I don't think "concern" is the same as "pessimism."

One is being worried about what might happen, the other is having a negative outlook.

It's totally legit to look at our situation and have some concerns. Actually being down on our team? Not so legit IMHO.

I can't speak for others, but I absolutely value what O-Max brought, and it sure would have been nice to have him back. And, like Goose and others, I'd really like to see Shaka bring in a transfer to help on D, rebounding and whatnot.

But we still have 8 of 9 rotation players back from last season -- including the BEPOY, an All-BE center, an All-BE guard, the BE 6th man of the year, a defensive stopper, a soph-to-be big whom many here have predicted will be the next guy MU sends to the NBA, a soph-to-be wing who might be the best athlete on the team, and a couple of highly regarded freshmen. Oh, and the AP national coach of the year, who has proven to be outstanding at developing talent.

I'm sticking with there not really being reason for pessimism about the 2023-24 Marquette men's basketball team.
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The Equalizer

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #307 on: June 02, 2023, 09:55:11 PM »
Quote from: brewcity77 link=topic=64697.msg1554686#msg1554686 date=
Not a huge sample size, but I looked at the top-50 on EvanMiya from 2022 and compared them to 2023 results. I may have missed some as it was a quick scan, and I left off guys like Justin Moore who was injured much of the year, but here are some comparisons:

Improved
Zach Edey 11 --> 1
Anton Watson 23 --> 5
Marcus Sasser 36 --> 8
Jamal Shead 37 --> 29
Baylor Scheiermann 40 --> 26
Santiago Vescovi 50 --> 39

Still Really Good
Azoulis Tubelis 8 --> 7
Oscar Tshiebwe 3 --> 17
Drew Timme 5 --> 15
Xavier Johnson 38 --> 54

Notable Decline
Josiah-Jordan James 19 --> 72
Hunter Dickinson 44 --> 76
Dujuan Harris 39 --> 93
Jalen Wilson 43 --> 114
Armando Bacot 7 --> 137

Obviously Kam falls just outside, but there's precedent for even guys at Tyler's level to improve (I'll take 11 --> 1 next year  ;D ) and certainly room for Oso and Kam to improve or sustain where they are at.

I do think the most likely areas for improvement come from guys like Ross, Gold, or an unexpected freshman to blossom early, but even our best players getting better wouldn't be an outlandish expectation, and 80% of the top-15 players like TK out of the (admittedly small) sample stayed in the top-20.

Stated another way, at this level roughly 1/3 of players improve, 1/3 stay the same, and 1/3 decline.

Assuming that your sample is representative, while its not outlandish to think that individualy Tyler, Kam or Oso will improve, there's only a 1 in 27 chance that all three do so. 


brewcity77

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #308 on: June 02, 2023, 10:13:08 PM »
Not at all saying TK, Oso, and Kam will look like Edey, Sasser, and Vescovi next year. But I think it's fair to say the most likely outcome is all three are still high level players in the top-100 range, and Tyler will probably still be in the top 1% of players in the country.

In terms of elite players, Marquette can reasonably expect to have 3 of the 100 best players in the country by this measure. And consider the jump those three made:

Tyler Kolek 503 --> 11
Oso Ighodaro 586 --> 44
Kam Jones Sub-1,000 --> 69
Stevie Mitchell 899 --> 97
O-Max Prosper 939 --> 109
David Joplin Sub-1,000 --> 297

If a Joplin, Chase, Gold, or other player makes a jump like what we've seen , this team will stand to be better than they were last year. And better than they were last year has been my personal expectation all along.
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MU82

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #309 on: June 02, 2023, 10:28:28 PM »
Some folks are making the same mistake they made last year, when they looked at the roster and didn't allow at all for the idea that players often improve, and well-coached players can improve considerably.

As brew says, it's hardly outrageous to believe that a coaching staff that helped Kolek, Oso and Kam become all-conference players, O-Max become a possible first-round draft pick and Joplin become the Big East's best 6th man will also help the likes of Ross and Gold improve substantially from their freshman to sophomore seasons.
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Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #310 on: June 02, 2023, 10:59:52 PM »
Some folks are making the same mistake they made last year, when they looked at the roster and didn't allow at all for the idea that players often improve, and well-coached players can improve considerably.

As brew says, it's hardly outrageous to believe that a coaching staff that helped Kolek, Oso and Kam become all-conference players, O-Max become a possible first-round draft pick and Joplin become the Big East's best 6th man will also help the likes of Ross and Gold improve substantially from their freshman to sophomore seasons.

Also exactly what I said. (Not trying to call you out so don’t want that to come off the wrong way).

Obviously we won’t get best case outcomes from all of our guys. And maybe Tyler doesn’t have much more room to improve. But, health permitting, if a couple of guys take big leaps, a couple take more moderate leaps and there’s not any big unexpected regression, things should be looking good.

Of Kam, Tyler and Oso it feels like Oso could be the one to take the biggest jump.

At the same time, it’s totally fair for defense and rebounding to be real concerns.

MU82

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #311 on: June 02, 2023, 11:11:31 PM »
Also exactly what I said. (Not trying to call you out so don’t want that to come off the wrong way).

Obviously we won’t get best case outcomes from all of our guys. And maybe Tyler doesn’t have much more room to improve. But, health permitting, if a couple of guys take big leaps, a couple take more moderate leaps and there’s not any big unexpected regression, things should be looking good.

Of Kam, Tyler and Oso it feels like Oso could be the one to take the biggest jump.

At the same time, it’s totally fair for defense and rebounding to be real concerns.

Agree on all that. (And no call-out inferred.)
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PointWarrior

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #312 on: June 02, 2023, 11:18:24 PM »
GE03 mentioning the possibility of a 6 to 8 seed is amusing.


Are Radford and Georgia Tech on the schedule?

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #313 on: June 03, 2023, 12:00:27 AM »
GE03 mentioning the possibility of a 6 to 8 seed is amusing.


Are Radford and Georgia Tech on the schedule?

Luckily we’ve avoided both of those matchups this season.

Tyler COLEk

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #314 on: June 03, 2023, 01:22:21 AM »
:-[ii ::)
17 conference wins is not repeatable - so that's a fact now?   What if they get 18?   I like the "factness" of all our scoopers - just like the "they will only score in the 50's factness of two years ago.

Some of you scoopers struggle with very basic hyperbole. Of course it’s possible they win 17+ next season, just like it was last season. The point is that the chances of that happening are so low it wouldn’t be a realistic goal, even for a significantly improved team.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #315 on: June 03, 2023, 07:23:47 AM »
Some of you scoopers struggle with very basic hyperbole. Of course it’s possible they win 17+ next season, just like it was last season. The point is that the chances of that happening are so low it wouldn’t be a realistic goal, even for a significantly improved team.

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brewcity77

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #316 on: June 03, 2023, 07:36:31 AM »
When I think expectations for this team, I do think areas of improvement. Here's where I think this team can improve:

  • Three-point percentage: We were fine last year, but if this team makes their open threes at a higher clip (possible considering development and the looks TK & Oso create) there's a significantly higher ceiling.
  • Free Throw Rate: Yes, we lose O-Max, but experience and past success should help in this regard. I think some of the calls we didn't get will go our way and the focus on shots near the rim will aid that. Not saying we'll be great, but improving from #317 to top-200 would be a significant jump.
  • Team Defense: Historically, Shaka's teams make defensive jumps in year 3. At VCU, they went 98/78/23 and at Texas they went 40/21/12. There will be focus on the loss of Prosper, but his year 3 VCU lost 4 senior starters from a Final 4 team and year 3 Texas lost their two front court starters (Shaq Cleare & Jarrett Allen). The key here isn't individual losses but team continuity.
  • Rebounding: O-Max had the Xavier put-back, but he was not a good rebounder. He was okay on the offensive end, but Jop and Gold can replicate that, and I think a year of growth will allow them to be better on the defensive end as well. Not expecting miracles, but top-200 on the offensive end and top-250 on the defensive end would go a long way toward improvement.
  • Defensive Turnover Rate: I know this was one of our strengths, but I think having more experience for the guards, the more active hands Joplin showed as the season went on (notably better than O-Max in conference play), and likely more small-ball lineups can take this from strength to elite.
I will concede this is somewhat idealistic, but many of these areas have already shown some modest improvement from year 1 to 2. I believe in what this staff is building, and if the consensus is that we're in the 6-15 range of teams nationally, I think we are being underrated once again. Barring injury, this is a top-5 team in the country.
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MU82

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #317 on: June 03, 2023, 08:48:34 AM »
When I think expectations for this team, I do think areas of improvement. Here's where I think this team can improve:

  • Three-point percentage: We were fine last year, but if this team makes their open threes at a higher clip (possible considering development and the looks TK & Oso create) there's a significantly higher ceiling.
  • Free Throw Rate: Yes, we lose O-Max, but experience and past success should help in this regard. I think some of the calls we didn't get will go our way and the focus on shots near the rim will aid that. Not saying we'll be great, but improving from #317 to top-200 would be a significant jump.
  • Team Defense: Historically, Shaka's teams make defensive jumps in year 3. At VCU, they went 98/78/23 and at Texas they went 40/21/12. There will be focus on the loss of Prosper, but his year 3 VCU lost 4 senior starters from a Final 4 team and year 3 Texas lost their two front court starters (Shaq Cleare & Jarrett Allen). The key here isn't individual losses but team continuity.
  • Rebounding: O-Max had the Xavier put-back, but he was not a good rebounder. He was okay on the offensive end, but Jop and Gold can replicate that, and I think a year of growth will allow them to be better on the defensive end as well. Not expecting miracles, but top-200 on the offensive end and top-250 on the defensive end would go a long way toward improvement.
  • Defensive Turnover Rate: I know this was one of our strengths, but I think having more experience for the guards, the more active hands Joplin showed as the season went on (notably better than O-Max in conference play), and likely more small-ball lineups can take this from strength to elite.
I will concede this is somewhat idealistic, but many of these areas have already shown some modest improvement from year 1 to 2. I believe in what this staff is building, and if the consensus is that we're in the 6-15 range of teams nationally, I think we are being underrated once again. Barring injury, this is a top-5 team in the country.

That's an insightful, info-filled comment filled with modest, realistic expectations.

Experience matters. Continuity matters. Improvement matters. Coaches who know how to develop both individual players and team concepts matter.

Fans in general (not just Scoopers) tend to undervalue or not even consider that. Some look at names on a roster and say, "Here's what we don't have."

Next season, we'll have a lot. We Are Marquette!
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jfp61

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Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
« Reply #318 on: June 03, 2023, 09:38:24 AM »
When I think expectations for this team, I do think areas of improvement. Here's where I think this team can improve:

  • Three-point percentage: We were fine last year, but if this team makes their open threes at a higher clip (possible considering development and the looks TK & Oso create) there's a significantly higher ceiling.
  • Free Throw Rate: Yes, we lose O-Max, but experience and past success should help in this regard. I think some of the calls we didn't get will go our way and the focus on shots near the rim will aid that. Not saying we'll be great, but improving from #317 to top-200 would be a significant jump.
  • Team Defense: Historically, Shaka's teams make defensive jumps in year 3. At VCU, they went 98/78/23 and at Texas they went 40/21/12. There will be focus on the loss of Prosper, but his year 3 VCU lost 4 senior starters from a Final 4 team and year 3 Texas lost their two front court starters (Shaq Cleare & Jarrett Allen). The key here isn't individual losses but team continuity.
  • Rebounding: O-Max had the Xavier put-back, but he was not a good rebounder. He was okay on the offensive end, but Jop and Gold can replicate that, and I think a year of growth will allow them to be better on the defensive end as well. Not expecting miracles, but top-200 on the offensive end and top-250 on the defensive end would go a long way toward improvement.
  • Defensive Turnover Rate: I know this was one of our strengths, but I think having more experience for the guards, the more active hands Joplin showed as the season went on (notably better than O-Max in conference play), and likely more small-ball lineups can take this from strength to elite.
I will concede this is somewhat idealistic, but many of these areas have already shown some modest improvement from year 1 to 2. I believe in what this staff is building, and if the consensus is that we're in the 6-15 range of teams nationally, I think we are being underrated once again. Barring injury, this is a top-5 team in the country.

    Three-point percentage:- yep. i see it.
    • Free Throw Rate: - pretty unlikely, alot of guys need to adjust their play style for this to happen, plus. I like all the 2pFGA we have anyways, so i don't know if i want this increasing too much. If we keep shooting so well from 2 it probably isn't as our best interest for this to happen as it would be for other teams.
    • Team Defense: - HIGHLY, unlikely. Will require that shoot defense. The way to do this is to have opponent eFG to drastically change.
    • Rebounding: sure, but this doesn't matter as much as scoop thinks it does.
    • Defensive Turnover Rate: - it could improve marginally.
    Defensive eFG is probably more important than all of these, though you probably see that as team defense.

    Top 5 is high. probably 8-14 on average. the top 5 upside is there, and the downside is relatively low (maybe 25th). I just don't a path see us being able to be the best team in the country though, which i think could have maybe seen happen with Omax.

    I don't know if this group can become a top 30 defensive team per se.




    Scoop Snoop

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    Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
    « Reply #319 on: June 03, 2023, 10:32:04 AM »
    That's an insightful, info-filled comment filled with modest, realistic expectations.

    Experience matters. Continuity matters. Improvement matters. Coaches who know how to develop both individual players and team concepts matter.

    Fans in general (not just Scoopers) tend to undervalue or not even consider that. Some look at names on a roster and say, "Here's what we don't have."

    Next season, we'll have a lot. We Are Marquette!

    Do free throws matter?

    Agree Big Time with the bolded. The ability of the coaches to help a player improve both individually and as a team member is crucial to overall success and is often seriously undervalued by fans. With the possible exception of some supremely talented 5 star players, the coaches make a huge difference in a player's and team's success.
    Wild horses couldn't drag me into either political party, but for very different reasons.

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    Tha Hound

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    Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
    « Reply #320 on: June 03, 2023, 02:25:09 PM »
    We'll be better than last season no doubt in my mind. Doubters can kick rocks

    GoldenEagles03

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    Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
    « Reply #321 on: June 04, 2023, 08:26:05 PM »
    GE03 mentioning the possibility of a 6 to 8 seed is amusing.


    Are Radford and Georgia Tech on the schedule?

    Why is that amusing?

    6 seeds are still Top 24 teams.
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    Vander Blue Man Group

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    Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
    « Reply #322 on: June 04, 2023, 08:45:29 PM »
    Why is that amusing?

    6 seeds are still Top 24 teams.

    COLE
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    « Last Edit: June 04, 2023, 08:47:08 PM by Vander Blue Man Group »

    Hards Alumni

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    Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
    « Reply #323 on: June 05, 2023, 06:31:32 AM »
    For the first time in the Shaka era I do not know what my expectations are at the moment. Plenty of reasons for optimism and few reasons to be pessimistic. Overall, I am excited for the upcoming season but probably with more muted expectations compared to some on here. That said, plenty of time before opening night and level of optimism can still rise before the season starts.

    +1

    Funny think about Omax is how little attention he got on this team while being as important as TKO and Oso.

    Hards Alumni

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    Re: 2023-2024 Expectations
    « Reply #324 on: June 05, 2023, 06:36:33 AM »
    The narrative that OMAX was our best defender is sure being pushed hard here since he left. I was under the impression Steve was our best defender.https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2023/03/18/marquette-guard-stevie-mitchell-is-teams-top-defensive-player/70023288007/

    Omax could defend different types of players.

    Otherwise, they're both stellar.

     

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