Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”

[TSmith34, Inc.]

When Wiscy won at Oregon recently Oregon played without their starting PG, SG and Center.

It is difficult to win 2 on 5, but that's what the NIT tournament committee decided would be a fair handicap to make the sides even.

[brewcity77]

I'd say they are the 4 best teams, for the past two weeks. They're the only teams that are undefeated the past couple of weeks.

Metrically, though, they aren't. Per Torvik, here are the rankings since Selection Sunday:

1) UConn
4) Miami
9) San Diego State
27) FAU

They also aren't the only undefeated teams the past couple of weeks. North Texas, Utah Valley, UAB, Wisconsin, and Charlotte are also all undefeated. Four of the five rate higher than FAU.

[5DollarPitcher]

Four of the five rate higher than FAU.

Even you can't be this married to advanced stats

[Uncle Rico]

Metrically, though, they aren't. Per Torvik, here are the rankings since Selection Sunday:

1) UConn
4) Miami
9) San Diego State
27) FAU

They also aren't the only undefeated teams the past couple of weeks. North Texas, Utah Valley, UAB, Wisconsin, and Charlotte are also all undefeated. Four of the five rate higher than FAU.

Further proof the tournament is a crapshoot.  As decisive as this poll

[PointWarrior]

Even you can't be this married to advanced stats

I have to agree. 

[brewcity77]

Even you can't be this married to advanced stats

Do you really think FAU is one of the four best teams in the country? Or remotely close to that? They aren't, and they haven't played like it this tournament. They escaped a 50/50 game they honestly should've lost, got the easiest second round game in the history of the NCAA Tournament, and got out of a relatively weak four-team pod at MSG.

They've had a fun run and I've greatly enjoyed it (and made a lot of money on it) but even though they could feasibly win a national championship, they are not one of the four best, nor one of the ten best teams in the country and haven't played like it at any point this season. Including the past two weeks.

[5DollarPitcher]

Do you really think FAU is one of the four best teams in the country? Or remotely close to that? They aren't, and they haven't played like it this tournament. They escaped a 50/50 game they honestly should've lost, got the easiest second round game in the history of the NCAA Tournament, and got out of a relatively weak four-team pod at MSG.

They've had a fun run and I've greatly enjoyed it (and made a lot of money on it) but even though they could feasibly win a national championship, they are not one of the four best, nor one of the ten best teams in the country and haven't played like it at any point this season. Including the past two weeks.

They won the 4 basketball games on their schedule in a region setup exactly the way as everyone else's. It's not any deeper than that.

I am a big stats / analytics guy but there comes a point where you have to close the spreadsheet and look at the results.

[5DollarPitcher]

I'd have to imagine that 4/5 just turned to 3/5.

If not the model is seriously flawed.

[Uncle Rico]

NIT proving single elimination tournaments are crapshoots

[PointWarrior]

Shouldn't we just have the NCAA tourney decided all by analytics - the the most fair and accurate way to do it.

[Uncle Rico]

Shouldn't we just have the NCAA tourney decided all by analytics - the the most fair and accurate way to do it.

Why would you do that?  Tournament wouldn't be a crapshoot then

[brewcity77]

They won the 4 basketball games on their schedule in a region setup exactly the way as everyone else's. It's not any deeper than that.

I am a big stats / analytics guy but there comes a point where you have to close the spreadsheet and look at the results.

If you really think FAU is one of the four best teams in the country, I have some lovely development property in South Florida you might also be interested in west of Boca Raton.

[jesmu84]

NCAA tourney - single elimination and 64+ teams - is this most statistically random outcome of all the major sporting event championships.

Therefore, crapshoot

[5DollarPitcher]

If you really think FAU is one of the four best teams in the country, I have some lovely development property in South Florida you might also be interested in west of Boca Raton.

If you think 4 teams not in the NCAA tournament are better than FAU right now I have some lovely oceanfront property in North Texas you might be interested in.

[5DollarPitcher]

NCAA tourney - single elimination and 64+ teams - is this most statistically random outcome of all the major sporting event championships.

Therefore, crapshoot

Except it's not at all statistically random because a top 6 statistically ranked team wins it 86% of the time.

[Uncle Rico]

NCAA tourney - single elimination and 64+ teams - is this most statistically random outcome of all the major sporting event championships.

Therefore, crapshoot

Yup.  I'm glad over 70% of scoop knows ball

[brewcity77]

If you think 4 teams not in the NCAA tournament are better than FAU right now I have some lovely oceanfront property in North Texas you might be interested in.

I think at least a dozen teams not in the NCAA Tournament are better than FAU right now, including one right here in Milwaukee.

Teams that aren't among the four best teams make the Final Four all the time. It happens pretty much every year. And that's okay. It's that random unpredictability that allows less competent teams to reach the sport's biggest stage that makes it so compelling.

[Uncle Rico]

I think at least a dozen teams not in the NCAA Tournament are better than FAU right now, including one right here in Milwaukee.

Teams that aren't among the four best teams make the Final Four all the time. It happens pretty much every year. And that's okay. It's that random unpredictability that allows less competent teams to reach the sport's biggest stage that makes it so compelling.

I'd take a bakers dozen and then some over Miami, too.

[FartyEightHours]

No way dude.  I picked Miami for the Final Four.  Don't try to take that from me.

[Uncle Rico]

No way dude.  I picked Miami for the Final Four.  Don't try to take that from me.

They've been very impressive in the tournament. 

[FartyEightHours]

Well they won the ACC tournament too so I had to roll with them.  They found the right dice for the crapshoot.

[Uncle Rico]

Well they won the ACC tournament too so I had to roll with them.  They found the right dice for the crapshoot.

They have and they haven't had the luck of FAU.  They've knocked out two very good teams

[brewcity77]

They've been very impressive in the tournament.

Because of the one-off nature, a team like Miami can break through despite there being many better teams in the field. Miami played two such teams this past week in Houston and Texas. If those teams play a 7-game series, Miami loses 4-1 or 4-2 against either, but because it was just the single result, they survived and advanced.

There's nothing wrong with acknowledging that the unpredictability of Tournament results can lead to lesser teams reaching the biggest stage. It's simply a recognition of reality. We've seen it with teams like VCU, George Mason, Butler, UConn, UCLA, we've seen plenty of teams that aren't elite get to the Final Four or beyond because of lucky breaks or playing great games. Even 2003 Marquette, which was one of the sports highlights of my life, probably lose to Kentucky in a 7-game series. But we got the greatest single game performance from the greatest player in program history and ended up beating them comfortably.

The ability for the underdog to win is what makes the tournament so magical. The reason it's awesome is BECAUSE it's a crapshoot. If the top algorithmic team won every year, it wouldn't be compelling. But that's not what happens, and that's why we love it.

[5DollarPitcher]

You're still running with the logic that anything other than the algorithmically 4 best teams pre-tournament in the Final Four means it's a crapshoot.

I need to understand that.

[brewcity77]

You're still running with the logic that anything other than the algorithmically 4 best teams pre-tournament in the Final Four means it's a crapshoot.

I need to understand that.

Was Wisconsin decidedly better than Marquette this year?

I'm not talking about for one game in December, I'm talking about the whole season. Is it your contention that Wisconsin was a superior team to Marquette?