What does it take for us to get a 2 seed?

[Galway Eagle]

They were a 7-seed in '97

Losses as 5-seed to Alabama, Murray State and Tulsa

My bad. Which was the 4 seed year? 96?

4 seed in 96: Ok we handled Monmouth pretty well so maybe I'm not as terrified of a 4 seed as I thought.

Either way didn't include 5 seed because I like to imagine we're pretty much past that at this point.

[Uncle Rico]

My bad. Which was the 4 seed year? 96?

4 seed in 96: Ok we handled Monmouth pretty well so maybe I'm not as terrified of a 4 seed as I thought.

Either way didn't include 5 seed because I like to imagine we're pretty much past that at this point.

Getting off the 4-5 line is preferable either way. 

[wisblue]

I'd much rather but a 3 in Columbus than a 2 anywhere else. Columbus will be a sea of gold!!!

Only if you include the Old Gold and Black of Purdue.

Columbus would be a convenient location but Boiler fans have probably been booking their reservations and buying up tickets there for the last few months.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Only if you include the Old Gold and Black of Purdue.

Columbus would be a convenient location but Boiler fans have probably been booking their reservations and buying up tickets there for the last few months.

Even though it would no longer matter, my guess is that Purdue fans would be largely pro-MU given their win over us.

[brewcity77]

Curious about Baylor being cemented ahead of us.  Currently 3rd place in the Big 12.  It would seem to me that if we win out regular season schedule and finish 25-6 and 17-3 in BE play, that should trump Baylor finishing 22-9 and 11-7 in Big12 play as projected by Ken Pom.  And of course our head to head win against them.

Cemented might be a little strong, but they are ahead of us in 5/6 metrics on the Team Sheets and have 4 Q1A road/neutral wins to our 1. They also have zero losses outside Quadrant 1 (we have 1 currently) and zero losses outside the NET Top-25 (we have 4). I also lean toward them being higher than the 7 the Selection Committee listed them at because the results of last week that likely weren't factored into SC voting probably had Baylor closer to the top of the 2-line than the bottom.

[Galway Eagle]

Cemented might be a little strong, but they are ahead of us in 5/6 metrics on the Team Sheets and have 4 Q1A road/neutral wins to our 1. They also have zero losses outside Quadrant 1 (we have 1 currently) and zero losses outside the NET Top-25 (we have 4). I also lean toward them being higher than the 7 the Selection Committee listed them at because the results of last week that likely weren't factored into SC voting probably had Baylor closer to the top of the 2-line than the bottom.

But head to head they've got nothing on us!

[real chili 83]

Please tell me there's a chance they end up in Des Moines!

This^^^^^^^^^^

[wisblue]

Cemented might be a little strong, but they are ahead of us in 5/6 metrics on the Team Sheets and have 4 Q1A road/neutral wins to our 1. They also have zero losses outside Quadrant 1 (we have 1 currently) and zero losses outside the NET Top-25 (we have 4). I also lean toward them being higher than the 7 the Selection Committee listed them at because the results of last week that likely weren't factored into SC voting probably had Baylor closer to the top of the 2-line than the bottom.

The comparison between MU and Baylor raises the question of how much credit a team should get for having more of something when they have had more opportunities to get them.

I recognize Baylor's advantage in the metrics, which gives them an edge right off the bat.

When it comes to quality wins, Baylor has had more games in Quads 1 and 2 than MU mainly because the Big 12 offers them. Some examples:

In Quad 1A, Baylor is 6-6, MU is 4-4
In Quad 1B, Baylor is 2-2, MU is 1-1
In Quad 2, Baylor is 4-0, MU is 5-1 (the Wisconsin game slid into Q2 again)
In Quads 3 and 4, Baylor is 8-0, MU is 12-0.
Baylor's OOC SOS is stronger at 42 to MU's 140. MU was hurt by Wisconsin, ND, and Georgia Tech all being weaker than expected. Baylor's OOC schedule included 5 Q1 games to MU's 2.

I would place Baylor above MU too, and if Baylor wins its remaining home games against Texas and Iowa State, it's hard to see anything MU could do to close that gap, except win the BET. And even that might not be enough.

If Baylor stays ahead of MU, that would probably end any chance MU would have of playing in Des Moines

[Galway Eagle]

The comparison between MU and Baylor raises the question of how much credit a team should get for having more of something when they have had more opportunities to get them.

I recognize Baylor's advantage in the metrics, which gives them an edge right off the bat.

When it comes to quality wins, Baylor has had more games in Quads 1 and 2 than MU mainly because the Big 12 offers them. Some examples:

In Quad 1A, Baylor is 6-6, MU is 4-4
In Quad 1B, Baylor is 2-2, MU is 1-1
In Quad 2, Baylor is 4-0, MU is 5-1 (the Wisconsin game slid into Q2 again)
In Quads 3 and 4, Baylor is 8-0, MU is 12-0.
Baylor's OOC SOS is stronger at 42 to MU's 140. MU was hurt by Wisconsin, ND, and Georgia Tech all being weaker than expected. Baylor's OOC schedule included 5 Q1 games to MU's 2.

I would place Baylor above MU too, and if Baylor wins its remaining home games against Texas and Iowa State, it's hard to see anything MU could do to close that gap, except win the BET. And even that might not be enough.

If Baylor stays ahead of MU, that would probably end any chance MU would have of playing in Des Moines

So we want Baylor to lose both or still beat Iowa St?

[goldeneagle91114]

This^^^^^^^^^^

[Warriors, Come Out and Playeeyay]

Just borrowing a scene from one of the greatest movies of all time :

Kolek - 'Well I guess there's only one thing left to do'
Ben Gold - 'What's that?'
Kolek - 'Win the whole. f'ing. thing.'

[Uncle Rico]

Just borrowing a scene from one of the greatest movies of all time :

Kolek - 'Well I guess there's only one thing left to do'
Ben Gold - 'What's that?'
Kolek - 'Win the whole. f'ing. thing.'

That team got swept by Jack Parkman and the White Sox in the ALCS

[wisblue]

So we want Baylor to lose both or still beat Iowa St?

I guess that depends on whether the priority is moving up on Baylor or getting or staying ahead of Iowa State.

[ATL MU Warrior]

I think it probably is best if Baylor beats Iowa State and the result of Baylor vs Texas probably doesn't matter a whole lot

[brewcity77]

The comparison between MU and Baylor raises the question of how much credit a team should get for having more of something when they have had more opportunities to get them.

I recognize Baylor's advantage in the metrics, which gives them an edge right off the bat.

When it comes to quality wins, Baylor has had more games in Quads 1 and 2 than MU mainly because the Big 12 offers them. Some examples:

In Quad 1A, Baylor is 6-6, MU is 4-4
In Quad 1B, Baylor is 2-2, MU is 1-1
In Quad 2, Baylor is 4-0, MU is 5-1 (the Wisconsin game slid into Q2 again)
In Quads 3 and 4, Baylor is 8-0, MU is 12-0.
Baylor's OOC SOS is stronger at 42 to MU's 140. MU was hurt by Wisconsin, ND, and Georgia Tech all being weaker than expected. Baylor's OOC schedule included 5 Q1 games to MU's 2.

I would place Baylor above MU too, and if Baylor wins its remaining home games against Texas and Iowa State, it's hard to see anything MU could do to close that gap, except win the BET. And even that might not be enough.

If Baylor stays ahead of MU, that would probably end any chance MU would have of playing in Des Moines

The biggest difference is breaking out those Q1A wins:

Baylor: @ 24 TCU, @26 WVU, N 4 UCLA, N 10 Gonzaga, H 6 Kansas, H 15 Arkansas
Marquette: @ 14 Creighton, H 7 UConn, H 12 Baylor, H 14 Creighton

The two true road games and two neutral court wins really stand out. Especially since they have three top-10 wins (2 away from home) to our one.

If we're going to get a 2-seed, I think the team we are more likely to pass is UCLA. If they slip up on the Mountain Road Trip (at Utah tonight, at Colorado Sunday) and lose their finale at home to Arizona, our high-end wins and their general struggles with tourney level competition might allow us to get ahead of them, despite a strong metric advantage for the Bruins. Especially if there's any regular season conference champion boost given.

[bilsu]

Not in our control:
We need more teams above us to lose.
We need Wisconsin and Mississippi State to play well the last few games.
In our control:
We need to beat our last three teams more than the predicted scoring margin.
Probably need to win Big East tournament, but if the above three go our way getting to championship game might do it.

[wisblue]

I really think the impact of what UW and Miss State do, and the margin of victory in the last 3 games , is extremely small. Those things get pretty diluted as the number of games played approaches 30.

I think winning the BET, combined with multiple losses from a couple of the teams not far ahead, might be the only way for MU to move up to the 2 seed line.

But, for the reasons I've given before, I don't think being number 7-8, as opposed to number 9-10, on the seed list makes that much difference in terms of MU's ability to advance in the NCAA. I just want them to avoid bad losses that would drop them down.

[brewcity77]

UCLA got a push from Utah, but pulled away in the final minutes to get the first leg of the Mountain Road Trip. They play Colorado on Sunday. Utah and Colorado are 5-1 against visiting opponents in the second leg of the Mountain Road Trip this year, with the lone loss being Utah's loss to Oregon. Cross your fingers for UCLA to lose Sunday, that is our best chance to have a case for a 2-seed.

Though here's the real question...is it better to be the bottom 2 or the top 3? If you're the bottom 2, you have a better shot at one of your top first weekend choices (Des Moines or Columbus for Marquette) but are more likely to end up at MSG if you make it to the Sweet 16. If you're the top-3, you still probably get a similar first weekend choice, but it's more likely you stay in the Midwest (either Louisville or KC).

[wisblue]

The biggest difference is breaking out those Q1A wins:

Baylor: @ 24 TCU, @26 WVU, N 4 UCLA, N 10 Gonzaga, H 6 Kansas, H 15 Arkansas
Marquette: @ 14 Creighton, H 7 UConn, H 12 Baylor, H 14 Creighton

The two true road games and two neutral court wins really stand out. Especially since they have three top-10 wins (2 away from home) to our one.

If we're going to get a 2-seed, I think the team we are more likely to pass is UCLA. If they slip up on the Mountain Road Trip (at Utah tonight, at Colorado Sunday) and lose their finale at home to Arizona, our high-end wins and their general struggles with tourney level competition might allow us to get ahead of them, despite a strong metric advantage for the Bruins. Especially if there's any regular season conference champion boost given.

I don't disagree with your analysis or conclusion, but if it ever came down to drilling that deep to choose between Baylor or MU, the head to head game would stand out too.

[rocket surgeon]

of course i'd rather have a #2 seed, aww what the hell, yeah a #1, but i'm good with a #3 and think we could really kick some ass from there.  we are largely in charge of our own destiny

[swoopem]

We can't forget our history as a 3 seed in a year ending in 3

2003- final four
2013- elite 8
2023- national champs

[The Thing]

We can't forget our history as a 3 seed in a year ending in 3

2003- final four
2013- elite 8
2023- national champs

This is awesome. Would love to see this!

[Galway Eagle]

We can't forget our history as a 3 seed in a year ending in 3

2003- final four
2013- elite 8
2023- national champs

Damn the 94 team could've really made this a trend if they had gotten their crap together a year earlier.

[bilsu]

I really think the impact of what UW and Miss State do, and the margin of victory in the last 3 games , is extremely small. Those things get pretty diluted as the number of games played approaches 30.

I think winning the BET, combined with multiple losses from a couple of the teams not far ahead, might be the only way for MU to move up to the 2 seed line.

But, for the reasons I've given before, I don't think being number 7-8, as opposed to number 9-10, on the seed list makes that much difference in terms of MU's ability to advance in the NCAA. I just want them to avoid bad losses that would drop them down.

Hard to say, but I think three one point victories in our last three games drops us to a four seed.

[wisblue]

I don't necessarily agree, but winning by one point 3 games in a row is am extreme example and a far cry from having to beat the expected victory margin in games in which MU will be clear favorites.