EV's

[The Sultan]

Lenny,

So you think some scoopers would have been BBQ chicken on the trading floor?

Weird comment.

Equating the purchase of a car with investment into commodities is funny. But this is where Lenny's Doom Loop has taken him. He has to make this absurd comparison (and have his boy Goose back him up) because of his initial illogical statement.

[GOO]

So, Lenny doesn't have a car or drives an older high mileage Corolla base model, no frills. That's the only logicial conclusion if Lenny makes sense and is true to himself:

I realize a car is never an investment. Unless you buy certain vehicles and never drive them and can project demand into the future for certain rare cars.

Lenny's logic:

1. The best "investment" is no car. Walk, bike, public transportation, Uber even multiple times a week when necessary. Rent a car for bigger trips.  That is how you save money. Never buy a car. Set your life up to not need one.

2. If you must buy a car. Never buy new. Buy old (10-20 year plus) base models such as a Corolla, Prius, lower mileage. Best cost of ownership and lose little on resale value. If you care about cost of ownership and not only resale value buy the hybrid Corolla or Prius or an ev.

3.  If buying new buy a base, no add ons, Corolla. If when you will sell you predict gas prices will be higher buy the Prius or hybrid Corolla.  No add ons. Base stereo. No heated seats etc.

4. Don't trade in your used car. Sell yourself to the end buyer.  Disclaimer I always trade in or give away to a someone who. needs a car. Big loss. Dumb. But that's me.

5.  If it's an investment you'd need to project the used value into the future and what demand and supply will be when trading in X number of years from now. Likely to be different than today. Especially considering when CA laws kick in.

6.  Demand for ev's outside USA is high. Will there be an over seas market kicking in if us prices stay low.


7. Any market that China has access to will kill all car values as they dump cheap cars. Don't buy a car., always the default answer. 

However, if your human and not completely logical, which is one and the same, resale value should be a factor if you will trade in and not keep the car long term. Illogical to not buy an used and run a car into the ground , but we are not logical.


If your me and you concern your self with multi factors, I'd buy a Tesla model 3 highland version.  Wouldn't even look at another car.  I'd go on the internet and have it purchased in 5 minutes or less. Time is valuable. Cost of ownership is great and if gas prices don't crash long term, it would be a value buy versus most gas vehicles even if the resale is lower - which is a question in 8 years - that I can't project.

Will the resale value be less in 8 years than say a bmw, probably not. And projecting into the future it could be a lot higher depending on a lot of factors that I can't control such as gas prices, tax credits going away etc.  But really.  The difference between trade in values at that point is minimal on the over all picture. Again, I should buy the base Corolla. Zero upgrades if the concern is to max out trade in.  But then I should buy it used, an 1990 model and drive it until it has 500k miles in it or does; like Lenny does for his "investment".

[ATL MU Warrior]

Tell your story to NBC news and Lester Holt. They're the ones who reported that EVs lose 10 times more in value after year one than ICE vehicles.

Which you know is incorrect but choose to use to...something? 

Everyone who has ever owned a new ICE car knows they lose 20-25% of their value the second you drive it off the lot.  So BEV cars lose 200-250%?  Total nonsense which, again, you know.

[Lennys Tap]

Weird comment.

Equating the purchase of a car with investment into commodities is funny. But this is where Lenny's Doom Loop has taken him. He has to make this absurd comparison (and have his boy Goose back him up) because of his initial illogical statement.

First, commodities aren't traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Options (puts and calls) on listed stocks and indexes (S+P, VIX) are . Commodities were traded on the Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange back in my day. Now it's just the CME.

Second, it's neither complicated nor expensive weird if you can think it through. If you make your living trading anything based on  true value then standing next to someone in the pit ill informed of the concept would be easy money.

But by all means keep on typing. Why should being a know nothing on the subject stop your pontificating? It's why you're a sultan.

[The Sultan]

First, commodities aren't traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Options (puts and calls) on listed stocks and indexes (S+P, VIX) are . Commodities were traded on the Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange back in my day. Now it's just the CME.

Second, it's neither complicated nor expensive weird if you can think it through. If you make your living trading anything based on  true value then standing next to someone in the pit ill informed of the concept would be easy money.

But by all means keep on typing. Why should being a know nothing on the subject stop your pontificating? It's why you're a sultan.

Keep doubling...tripling...down on a bad point. It won't get more right, but it will get more funny.

[MU82]

Musk and his acolytes constantly prattle on about Tesla being much more than a car company. The Supercharger network, and its potential for hypergrowth, was gonna be one way to prove that it was more than a car company.

Yesterday, Musk dumped the entire department - from management down to the last worker. 500+ layoffs.

The guy demanding his $50B payday said it's all about cost reductions.

[dgies9156]

One of the interesting and still generally unanswered questions is battery life.

If I maintain my traditional car with its internal combustion engine and the sweet small of gasoline, I can pretty much be assured of 10 years and at least 100,000 to 150,000 miles. If I'm a car geek and really maintain it, some think I can get 250,000+ miles from my little ole dinosaur.

Nowhere have I seen anyone saying electric cars will get that kind of life. Which means we better have a damn good recycling program for automobiles in this country or auto graveyards will be filling up fast.

Many of you EV fans are going to tell me that no one, possibly excepting me, keeps their cars that long. But it's not unusual for well-built ICE powered autos to go through two or three owners and 150,000 to 200,000 miles. My understanding is we're nowhere close to that with an EV.

There's environmental trade-offs for everything we do!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Musk and his acolytes constantly prattle on about Tesla being much more than a car company. The Supercharger network, and its potential for hypergrowth, was gonna be one way to prove that it was more than a car company.

Yesterday, Musk dumped the entire department - from management down to the last worker. 500+ layoffs.

The guy demanding his $50B payday said it's all about cost reductions.

I find this one really baffling. The supercharging network is a space where Tesla clearly has a commanding lead, both technologically and from an adoption perspective. Yet:

"Musk told workers that Tesla "will continue to build out some new Supercharger locations, where critical, and finish those currently under construction."

Can't understand the business rationale here? Need capital for other projects like battery megafactory or new model designs?? (Or maybe to pay Russian troll farm for their work on Xitter?)

[jesmu84]

Musk and his acolytes constantly prattle on about Tesla being much more than a car company. The Supercharger network, and its potential for hypergrowth, was gonna be one way to prove that it was more than a car company.

Yesterday, Musk dumped the entire department - from management down to the last worker. 500+ layoffs.

The guy demanding his $50B payday said it's all about cost reductions.

This basically puts a halt on opening up the supercharger network to further cars/brands.

Musk, again, took taxpayers money and is running away with it.

[jesmu84]

One of the interesting and still generally unanswered questions is battery life.

If I maintain my traditional car with its internal combustion engine and the sweet small of gasoline, I can pretty much be assured of 10 years and at least 100,000 to 150,000 miles. If I'm a car geek and really maintain it, some think I can get 250,000+ miles from my little ole dinosaur.

Nowhere have I seen anyone saying electric cars will get that kind of life. Which means we better have a damn good recycling program for automobiles in this country or auto graveyards will be filling up fast.

Many of you EV fans are going to tell me that no one, possibly excepting me, keeps their cars that long. But it's not unusual for well-built ICE powered autos to go through two or three owners and 150,000 to 200,000 miles. My understanding is we're nowhere close to that with an EV.

There's environmental trade-offs for everything we do!

You're completely misinformed about EV battery life.

[tower912]

Yes, a puzzler.   The one place Tesla has a clear advantage and he walks away.  Tesla's chargers had basically won, other automobile manufacturers were moving into them.   And, if you want more EV's purchased, a better charging network is necessary.    Odd.

[dgies9156]

You're completely misinformed about EV battery life.

So you are telling me there is no difference in terms of potential life and trade-in value between my gasoline swilling car powered by an internal combustion engine and an electric vehicle?

That if I went to a Tesla store on Merritt Island or in Orlando tomorrow, they could legitimately represent that their cars with routine maintenance, including tire rotation and brake fluid changes, their vehicles will last for 150,000 to 250,000 miles, or more?

In a lab, maybe. But in the real world? I'm still doubting it.

[Pakuni]

So you are telling me there is no difference in terms of potential life and trade-in value between my gasoline swilling car powered by an internal combustion engine and an electric vehicle?

That if I went to a Tesla store on Merritt Island or in Orlando tomorrow, they could legitimately represent that their cars with routine maintenance, including tire rotation and brake fluid changes, their vehicles will last for 150,000 to 250,000 miles, or more?

In a lab, maybe. But in the real world? I'm still doubting it.

There are numerous stories out there of Teslas surpassing 250,000 miles.
Here's one
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/this-2018-tesla-model-3-passed-the-300000-mile-mark-here-s-what-you-need-to-know-194534.html

[Goose]

dgies

I heard the Carmax CEO talking on this subject on CNBC several months ago. He stated there were a lot of unknowns on the battery in resales of EV's and it is going to be a difficult market. I think there is going to be interesting times ahead in the EV resale market. We will see how much the hardcore EV folks are if their trade in value is much lower than expected.

[Uncle Rico]

People are burying their heads in the sand if they think EV's won't make up a majority of car sales within a decade.

[jesmu84]

So you are telling me there is no difference in terms of potential life and trade-in value between my gasoline swilling car powered by an internal combustion engine and an electric vehicle?

That if I went to a Tesla store on Merritt Island or in Orlando tomorrow, they could legitimately represent that their cars with routine maintenance, including tire rotation and brake fluid changes, their vehicles will last for 150,000 to 250,000 miles, or more?

In a lab, maybe. But in the real world? I'm still doubting it.

You just shifted the goal posts - now you're including "trade in value". Previously, you were only talking about life/mileage.

To answer your original question, yes, BEVs should last as long or longer than ICE vehicles assuming proper upkeep.

I'm also not guaranteeing "no difference".

[Not all scoop users are created equal apparently]

This basically puts a halt on opening up the supercharger network to further cars/brands.

Musk, again, took taxpayers money and is running away with it.

I genuinely cannot think of a legitimate reason for the actions except for overly heavy handed cost cutting. Makes absolutely no sense.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I genuinely cannot think of a legitimate reason for the actions except for overly heavy handed cost cutting. Makes absolutely no sense.

Possibilities:

1. Capital needed elsewhere more desperately
2. Chargers not producing acceptable ROI
3. ?
4. ?
5. Musk too busy raging on Xitter about the woke mind virus to pay sufficient attention to his other companies as CEO, which his BoD should act on but won't

[The Sultan]

People are burying their heads in the sand if they think EV's won't make up a majority of car sales within a decade.

Oh I absolutely do not think that will be the case.

[dgies9156]

You just shifted the goal posts - now you're including "trade in value". Previously, you were only talking about life/mileage.

To answer your original question, yes, BEVs should last as long or longer than ICE vehicles assuming proper upkeep.

I'm also not guaranteeing "no difference".

Brother Jesmu:

In what world do you think there is no relationship between trade-in value and the world's perceptions of the durability and longevity of an EV?

Maybe in a lab, an EV lasts 200,000 miles. But the real world is Interstate 95 through East Florida and its 175 mph average speed (Bubba thinks that because I-95 passes Daytona, he drive like he's on a super speedway). Or sitting for an hour (with some goofy Jersey Girl doing her make-up) waiting for a slot in the Lincoln Tunnel between New Jersey and Manhattan. Or, the 405 west of Los Angeles, where you can use the entire battery life driving/stopping between LAX and Long Beach! I have my doubts.

In fact, I'm not alone. There's this difficult to measure systematic variable called "people's expectations" which is driven in no small measure by the marketplace of ideas. If people are confident, based on real-world evidence, that EVs will last at least as long, if not longer, than gas slurping dinosaurs, they'd be paying up to get them. Especially given there's only tire rotation and brake fluid maintenance, and possibly, air conditioner repair.

The reality is the market is speaking. While there has been quite a few early adopters who raced to the Tesla stores, bought Ford F150 Lightnings and otherwise found EVs, the resale/sale of EVs is, in fact, telling. Most folks in this country have decided that there are still too many open questions about EVs, their convenience, longevity and, ultimately cost.

You and I can debate all day about what might be or what should be, but I can tell you that's God's gift to mankind and womankind is STILL that ever-loving gasoline! It's too bad God put too much of gasoline's raw material in the Middle East and not enough in the Western Hemisphere!

Final thought: no government can mandate technological change. You can invest in it, you can incent it through tax and regulatory policy and you can research it. But you cannot dictate it.

[jesmu84]

Brother Jesmu:

In what world do you think there is no relationship between trade-in value and the world's perceptions of the durability and longevity of an EV?

Maybe in a lab, an EV lasts 200,000 miles. But the real world is Interstate 95 through East Florida and its 175 mph average speed (Bubba thinks that because I-95 passes Daytona, he drive like he's on a super speedway). Or sitting for an hour (with some goofy Jersey Girl doing her make-up) waiting for a slot in the Lincoln Tunnel between New Jersey and Manhattan. Or, the 405 west of Los Angeles, where you can use the entire battery life driving/stopping between LAX and Long Beach! I have my doubts.

In fact, I'm not alone. There's this difficult to measure systematic variable called "people's expectations" which is driven in no small measure by the marketplace of ideas. If people are confident, based on real-world evidence, that EVs will last at least as long, if not longer, than gas slurping dinosaurs, they'd be paying up to get them. Especially given there's only tire rotation and brake fluid maintenance, and possibly, air conditioner repair.

The reality is the market is speaking. While there has been quite a few early adopters who raced to the Tesla stores, bought Ford F150 Lightnings and otherwise found EVs, the resale/sale of EVs is, in fact, telling. Most folks in this country have decided that there are still too many open questions about EVs, their convenience, longevity and, ultimately cost.

You and I can debate all day about what might be or what should be, but I can tell you that's God's gift to mankind and womankind is STILL that ever-loving gasoline! It's too bad God put too much of gasoline's raw material in the Middle East and not enough in the Western Hemisphere!

Final thought: no government can mandate technological change. You can invest in it, you can incent it through tax and regulatory policy and you can research it. But you cannot dictate it.

Bruh. Focus.

You originally doubted the idea that a BEV can have a lifespan similar to an ICE. It's an absolute fact that in the real world a BEV can drive the same amount of lifetime miles as an ICE.

It's really as simple as that. No need to expand this discussion into anything else cultural or political or economic or ecological.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

People are burying their heads in the sand if they think EV's won't make up a majority of car sales within a decade.

I hear Toyota disagrees

[Not all scoop users are created equal apparently]

I hear Toyota disagrees

They don't think in totality. However...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toyota-highlander-plant-gets-1-183700661.html


Shocking the company that bet big on hydrogen is hoping this to be the case

[tower912]

You don't want to get your doors blown off in a new Prius.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]