Big East Tiers, Not Tears

[DoctorV]

I like to celebrate big wins, but quickly move on from tough losses.

So, it got me thinking about the rest of the way. The OOC portion wasn’t great for the conference, a lot of not so shiny NET rankings. I’ve seen a lot of things about BE tiers with like 4/5 tiers as teams move up and down from tier 1 to tier 2, tier 2 to 3 etc.

It seems to me after the early going that the BE is essentially only 3 tiers:

1- UConn.
3- DePaul and Gtown.
2- Everyone else.

Crazier things have happened, but I would be very hard pressed to imagine anyone else winning the conference outside of UConn. It also seems very likely that DePaul and Gtown are yet again bottom feeders.

Then there is the massive middle of the pack.
I’ve pointed out a few times that every other team in the BE falls between 30ish-75ish in KenPom.

Why does that matter?
Well because it is becoming more and more obvious that conference play is not a walk in the park, and that the early returns aren’t exactly accurate to the strength of the bulk of the conference teams (Mail in ballots haven’t come in, so to speak).
Winning on the road versus any team in the KenPom top 75, especially a conference rival, is no easy task.
Neither is winning at home for that matter.

So, where does that leave Marquette?
Well, first things first- it’s good to be on the right side of the computer bubble than on the wrong side at this point, so there’s that.
You still have to win the games though, and win enough games to get a bid.
There have been numbers thrown around- I’ve seen 11 wins as the most common- but I just find it hard to believe that a 10-10 conference record for this MU squad, with the current computer numbers and a fairly successful OOC, wouldn’t dance.
I know they do computer simulations for everything, and maybe someone smarter than me can figure out their projected NET with a variety of 10 BE wins, but I doubt it would be below the 50s.

So does that mean they are a lock to dance?
Nope.
Go 9-11 or worse and sweat it out or OUT altogether.
The most exciting part about this part of the year beyond the gauntlet of a conference season is all the possibilities.

Get 15+ wins in conference and a top 4 seed is still in play.
Get 9 or less and the NIT is still in play.
Every win in between moves the seed one way or the other.

Win your home games, especially against a majority of that middle tier of 8 teams and you likely dance. Protect home court.
Looking for more? Well then win close road games in tough spots (ahem) and get yourself in position for a seed higher than the 7-11 lines so you greatly increase your odds of winning an NCAA tourney game for the first time in a decade. 

As Kevin Garnett once said, anythings possibleeeeee.

[GoldenEagles03]

I like to celebrate big wins, but quickly move on from tough losses.

So, it got me thinking about the rest of the way. The OOC portion wasn’t great for the conference, a lot of not so shiny NET rankings. I’ve seen a lot of things about BE tiers with like 4/5 tiers as teams move up and down from tier 1 to tier 2, tier 2 to 3 etc.

It seems to me after the early going that the BE is essentially only 3 tiers:

1- UConn.
3- DePaul and Gtown.
2- Everyone else.

Crazier things have happened, but I would be very hard pressed to imagine anyone else winning the conference outside of UConn. It also seems very likely that DePaul and Gtown are yet again bottom feeders.

Then there is the massive middle of the pack.
I’ve pointed out a few times that every other team in the BE falls between 30ish-75ish in KenPom.

Why does that matter?
Well because it is becoming more and more obvious that conference play is not a walk in the park, and that the early returns aren’t exactly accurate to the strength of the bulk of the conference teams (Mail in ballots haven’t come in, so to speak).
Winning on the road versus any team in the KenPom top 75, especially a conference rival, is no easy task.
Neither is winning at home for that matter.

So, where does that leave Marquette?
Well, first things first- it’s good to be on the right side of the computer bubble than on the wrong side at this point, so there’s that.
You still have to win the games though, and win enough games to get a bid.
There have been numbers thrown around- I’ve seen 11 wins as the most common- but I just find it hard to believe that a 10-10 conference record for this MU squad, with the current computer numbers and a fairly successful OOC, wouldn’t dance.
I know they do computer simulations for everything, and maybe someone smarter than me can figure out their projected NET with a variety of 10 BE wins, but I doubt it would be below the 50s.

So does that mean they are a lock to dance?
Nope.
Go 9-11 or worse and sweat it out or OUT altogether.
The most exciting part about this part of the year beyond the gauntlet of a conference season is all the possibilities.

Get 15+ wins in conference and a top 4 seed is still in play.
Get 9 or less and the NIT is still in play.
Every win in between moves the seed one way or the other.

Win your home games, especially against a majority of that middle tier of 8 teams and you likely dance. Protect home court.
Looking for more? Well then win close road games in tough spots (ahem) and get yourself in position for a seed higher than the 7-11 lines so you greatly increase your odds of winning an NCAA tourney game for the first time in a decade. 

As Kevin Garnett once said, anythings possibleeeeee.

Georgetown has talent and DePaul just isn't healthy.  Both of those teams will be better than their NC showed.

I agree they may be a tier below the other 8 but they are capable.

[bilsu]

Providence won at Seton Hall and beat Marquette to go 2-0 in conference, Physical team, who may be able to compete with Uconn. I would not sleep on Villanova.

[rocky_warrior]

I would not sleep on Villanova.

I'm also wary of an improving Villanova.  Watched them a few times, they've looked *much* better since Whitmore hit the floor.

[brewcity77]

I'm also wary of an improving Villanova.  Watched them a few times, they've looked *much* better since Whitmore hit the floor.

Maybe, but they still can't defend their own shadows.

[rgoode57]

I fear that what we saw last night against PC is a movie we might see several times this season - getting physically dominated, getting badly outrebounded, and, in short, just getting beat up on Big East style. Last night, Oso had a bit more than he could physically handle on the defensive / rebounding end and Omax was either invisible or just got totally dominated.

Some people say you have to have a big, strong guy down low to win in the BE, but I don't ever remember Villanova having physically dominant teams. They won by playing really smart, moving the ball really well on offense, shooting well from all five positions, and playing really good team defense. But, 'Nova also had elite talent to start with. And, they had Jay Wright.

We don't have the dominant big guy, and we don't play like Jay Wright's teams played. We have good, but certainly not elite, talent. And, I like Shaka a lot, but I don't think he is Jay Wright.

If this team goes .500 in BE and squeaks into the tournament, I think it will be a successful year. But, I can just as easily see them getting 8 or 9 wins in conference and being on the wrong side of the bubble. They are really fun to watch, but they are not going to dominate anyone in the BE this year.

[GoldenEagles03]

Marquette has yet to start 2-0 in Big East play in the realigned conference.

That is some pathetic stretch we are on.  We've seen a lot of bad hoops in the last 10 years.

[Uncle Rico]

Marquette has yet to start 2-0 in Big East play in the realigned conference.

That is some pathetic stretch we are on.  We've seen a lot of bad hoops in the last 10 years.

You should see some of the fans

[BrewCity83]

Providence won at Seton Hall and beat Marquette to go 2-0 in conference, Physical team, who may be able to compete with Uconn. I would not sleep on Villanova.

If Providence is the best team in the Big East, then last night makes me really optimistic.

[GoldenEagles03]

If Providence is the best team in the Big East, then last night makes me really optimistic.

Providence is middle of the pack.

They beat Rider by 1 point (NET 226), before Big East play that was their best win of the year.

They are currently 79th in the NET and Marquette dropped 8 spots in the NET for losing to them.

[SERocks]

I told a friend the other day MU could be second in the Big East this year. I'll stand by that.

[lawdog77]

Providence is middle of the pack.

They beat Rider by 1 point (NET 226), before Big East play that was their best win of the year.

They are currently 79th in the NET and Marquette dropped 8 spots in the NET for losing to them.

Well, that was some good coaching by Cooley to beat Rider by 1 point.

[The Equalizer]

Providence is middle of the pack.

They beat Rider by 1 point (NET 226), before Big East play that was their best win of the year.

They are currently 79th in the NET and Marquette dropped 8 spots in the NET for losing to them.

If Providence is the best team in the Big East, then last night makes me really optimistic.

Counterpoint on Providence is that they had significant roster turnover--it's not unexpected that they struggle early as they learn to play together, and that they'll get significantly better as the year progresses.

I seem to recall last year that a certain Big East team with significant roster turnover started slow before finally hitting their stride in a 7 game win streak.

[We R Final Four]

I fear that what we saw last night against PC is a movie we might see several times this season - getting physically dominated, getting badly outrebounded, and, in short, just getting beat up on Big East style. Last night, Oso had a bit more than he could physically handle on the defensive / rebounding end and Omax was either invisible or just got totally dominated.

Some people say you have to have a big, strong guy down low to win in the BE, but I don't ever remember Villanova having physically dominant teams. They won by playing really smart, moving the ball really well on offense, shooting well from all five positions, and playing really good team defense. But, 'Nova also had elite talent to start with. And, they had Jay Wright.

We don't have the dominant big guy, and we don't play like Jay Wright's teams played. We have good, but certainly not elite, talent. And, I like Shaka a lot, but I don't think he is Jay Wright.

If this team goes .500 in BE and squeaks into the tournament, I think it will be a successful year. But, I can just as easily see them getting 8 or 9 wins in conference and being on the wrong side of the bubble. They are really fun to watch, but they are not going to dominate anyone in the BE this year.

Agreed….however where OMax needs to take advantage is when PC switches and he has a slower Croswell  on him. He did not. Oso did a few times, but not enough. They were bigger and more physical. We are quicker and craftier than PC but did not take advantage of that.

[bilsu]

If Providence is the best team in the Big East, then last night makes me really optimistic.

Providence is not the best team in the Big East. Uconn is, but on a given night Providence has a chance to beat Uconn.  Sanogo vs. Hopkins will be a war. Outcome may be determined by who gets in foul trouble.

MU can play with all of the Big East teams, but that does not mean they will win.

[wadesworld]

I’d put Providence as about the 6th or 7th best team in the Big East. I think Marquette is one of the teams that is better than them.

[bilsu]

I fear that what we saw last night against PC is a movie we might see several times this season - getting physically dominated, getting badly outrebounded, and, in short, just getting beat up on Big East style. Last night, Oso had a bit more than he could physically handle on the defensive / rebounding end and Omax was either invisible or just got totally dominated.

Some people say you have to have a big, strong guy down low to win in the BE, but I don't ever remember Villanova having physically dominant teams. They won by playing really smart, moving the ball really well on offense, shooting well from all five positions, and playing really good team defense. But, 'Nova also had elite talent to start with. And, they had Jay Wright.

We don't have the dominant big guy, and we don't play like Jay Wright's teams played. We have good, but certainly not elite, talent. And, I like Shaka a lot, but I don't think he is Jay Wright.

If this team goes .500 in BE and squeaks into the tournament, I think it will be a successful year. But, I can just as easily see them getting 8 or 9 wins in conference and being on the wrong side of the bubble. They are really fun to watch, but they are not going to dominate anyone in the BE this year.

Every year Villanova is one of the biggest teams in the Big East. Not height wise, but by physical strength.

matched by weight order:

Prosper 230 vs.Dixon 255
Joplin 220 vs. Njouku 250
Gold 220 vs.Whitmore 235
Oso 215 vs. Patterson 225
Wrightsil 215 vs. Slater 220
Iterje 215 vs. Moore 215
Ellis 200 vs. Longino 215
K. Jones 195 vs. Daniels 210
Mitchell 195 vs. Arcdiacono 205
Ross 195 vs. Haussen 205
Kolek 190 vs. Brizzi 190
S. Jones 175 vs. Armstrong 180

[jfp61]

1. UConn
Gap
2. Xavier
3. Marquette (still)
4. Creighton
5. Villanova (better than CU in February)
(small gap)
6. St. John's
7.Providence
8. Seton Hall
9. Butler
Gap the size of the Mariana Trench
10. DePaul
11. Georgetown

[BM1090]

I would project the standings as follows. Not ranking the teams but how I think they'll finish in conference.

1. UConn
2. Marquette
3. Xavier
4. Nova
5. Creighton
6. Providence
7. SJU
8. Butler
9. SHU
10. DePaul
11. Georgetown

I don't think 2-9 will be separated by much, but I like MU to finish 2nd. We'll roll SHU on Tuesday and win one of the next two road games against Nova or SJU. Then we'll beat Georgetown and lose to UConn and Xavier for a 4-4 start.

But we'll go on a run and finish 13-7. The schedule softens after the first 8 and we'll likely be favored in 10 of the last 12 games.

[wadesworld]

1) UCONN
2) Xavier
3-7) Nova/Creighton/Marquette/Providence/SJU (in my best guess as to how they will finish, but completely unsure)
8-9) BUtler/SHU
10) DePaul
11) Georgetown

MU significantly better than I expected.  Big East quite a bit worse than I expected.  MU is going to be in close games probably 12 more times this regular season.  They have to figure out how to close game.  If they can do that I could see them finishing 3rd.  If not, they'll probably finish 7th.  Team Bubble Watch is back.

[Its DJOver]

Every year Villanova is one of the biggest teams in the Big East. Not height wise, but by physical strength.

matched by weight order:

Prosper 230 vs.Dixon 255
Joplin 220 vs. Njouku 250
Gold 220 vs.Whitmore 235
Oso 215 vs. Patterson 225
Wrightsil 215 vs. Slater 220
Iterje 215 vs. Moore 215
Ellis 200 vs. Longino 215
K. Jones 195 vs. Daniels 210
Mitchell 195 vs. Arcdiacono 205
Ross 195 vs. Haussen 205
Kolek 190 vs. Brizzi 190
S. Jones 175 vs. Armstrong 180

This is pretty useless information, including players that haven't played all year or haven't scored all year.

Wright liked to recruit big guards, we'll see if Neptune continues to do the same.

[GoldenEagles03]

I would project the standings as follows. Not ranking the teams but how I think they'll finish in conference.

1. UConn
2. Marquette
3. Xavier
4. Nova
5. Creighton
6. Providence
7. SJU
8. Butler
9. SHU
10. DePaul
11. Georgetown

I don't think 2-9 will be separated by much, but I like MU to finish 2nd. We'll roll SHU on Tuesday and win one of the next two road games against Nova or SJU. Then we'll beat Georgetown and lose to UConn and Xavier for a 4-4 start.

But we'll go on a run and finish 13-7. The schedule softens after the first 8 and we'll likely be favored in 10 of the last 12 games.

1. UConn
2. Xavier
3. Nova
4. Creighton
5. Providence
6. Marquette
7. Butler
8. St. John's
9. Seton Hall
10. DePaul
11. Georgetown