Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[mugrad_89]

The net rankings never cease to amaze me. Marquette drops 3 spots from 11 to 14 in the course of 2 days because they beat a bad butler team by 8 instead of 15 but Uconn hasn't played a good game since the end of December, losing 6 games since January but has only dropped 6 spots.

They really need to adjust the weight given to margin of victory.  I'm pretty sure we lost points earlier in the year when Shaka was emptying the bench at the 4 minute mark.

[MU82]

With games at UConn and at Creighton sandwiching a home game vs. X, Marquette will have plenty of chances to move up nicely in the NET ratings over the next couple of weeks.

All 3 are winnable.

[brewcity77]

They really need to adjust the weight given to margin of victory.  I'm pretty sure we lost points earlier in the year when Shaka was emptying the bench at the 4 minute mark.

They took out the margin of victory component a couple years ago. Efficiency margins matter, which somewhat mirrors victory margin, but the up to 10 boost was effectively a double advantage for teams that won by 10.

And there's nothing wrong with the NET. Beat the teams you're supposed to beat in the fashion you're supposed to beat them and you will be fine. Do better and you move up. Do less and you move down. It's also really important, really really important, to understand the difference between rating and ranking.

As far as UConn, the NET seems to have similarities to kenpom, where UConn has fallen from 1st to 6th. But the reason for that is because they were so far ahead of the bulk of the field when they were ranked first. On December 18, UConn was ranked #1 at kenpom with an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +31.22. They are now ranked 6th with an AdjEM of +24.42. Had they dropped that overnight on December 18, they would've fallen from #1 to #7, so a similar drop. But while that 6.80 decline is the difference between then-first and now-sixth, it's also the difference between now-sixth and now-twenty-eighth. It's also the difference between now-twenty-eighth and now-seventy-first.

UConn has dropped a ton in terms of rating, but because of the equity they built up early and the wider margins at the top they haven't fallen as perceptibly far in terms of ranking.

NET is better than the terrible RPI system. Here are a few standout RPI numbers if that were still in effect:

8) Nevada (34)
11) Florida Atlantic (18)
12) San Diego State (23)
19) Utah State (32)
25) Marquette (14)
26) North Texas (58)
40) Creighton (16)
44) TCU (17)
47) Hofstra (92)

No system will be perfect, but the NET is a good sorting tool that better reflects team quality than the old system did.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Marquette's NET is 14 Monday

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 5, 2023
New Old
7   7   UConn   
14   14   Marquette   
16   16   Creighton   
24   24   Xavier   
36   37   Providence   
53   51   Seton Hall   
90   91   Villanova   
99   98   St. John's
112   112   Butler   
159   163   DePaul   
236   238   Georgetown

February 6 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Herman Cain]

Big East Poll Rankings as February 6, 2023
AP
10.MU
13. X
20. Cooley& Company
21. UConn
23. Creighton
Coaches
10. MU
15. X
17.Cooley&Company
21. UConn
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 6, 2023
New  Old
7   7   UConn   
14   14   Marquette   
16   16   Creighton   
24   24   Xavier   
38   36   Providence   
53   53   Seton Hall   
91   90   Villanova   
99   99   St. John's
112   112   Butler   
159   159   DePaul   
233   236   Georgetown

February 7 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 7, 2023
New  Old
7   7   UConn   
15   14   Marquette   
17   16   Creighton   
25   24   Xavier   
36   38   Providence   
54   53   Seton Hall   
91   91   Villanova   
100   99   St. John's
111   112   Butler
159   159   DePaul   
233   233   Georgetown   
February 8 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Uncle Rico]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 7, 2023
New  Old
7   7   UConn   
15   14   Marquette   
17   16   Creighton   
25   24   Xavier   
36   38   Providence   
54   53   Seton Hall   
91   91   Villanova   
100   99   St. John's
111   112   Butler
159   159   DePaul   
233   233   Georgetown   
February 8 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

Devastating loss last night

[MU82]

Devastating loss last night

Yep, our NET fell the same number of spots as Creighton's and Xavier's did. Doomed!

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Devastating loss last night

Team is going to be too distraught to focus on Georgetown Saturday after this precipitous slide. 

[Scoop Snoop]

Team is going to be too distraught to focus on Georgetown Saturday after this precipitous slide.

I hope that we do not forfeit the game, as the tickets my wife and I have for the game will be worthless, just like a lot of the criticism of our team.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I hope that we do not forfeit the game, as the tickets my wife and I have for the game will be worthless, just like a lot of the criticism of our team.

Wait, you paid for tickets for a game at Georgetown? 

[rocky_warrior]

Wait, you paid for tickets for a game at Georgetown?

Right?  At this point I assume they hand out free tickets and Georgetown gear to get people in the stadium.

[Scoop Snoop]

Wait, you paid for tickets for a game at Georgetown?

My wife and I had a "senior moment". Cut us some slack, will ya?

[ATL MU Warrior]

Right?  At this point I assume they hand out free tickets and the opposing team's gear to get people in the stadium.

FIFY

[Dr. Blackheart]

My wife and I had a "senior moment". Cut us some slack, will ya?

[muwarrior69]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 7, 2023
New  Old
7   7   UConn   
15   14   Marquette   
17   16   Creighton   
25   24   Xavier   
36   38   Providence   
54   53   Seton Hall   
91   91   Villanova   
100   99   St. John's
111   112   Butler
159   159   DePaul   
233   233   Georgetown   
February 8 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

The same number of point we lost by, go figure.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 8, 2023
New  Old
7   7   UConn   
15   17   Creighton   
16   15   Marquette   
25   25   Xavier   
39   36   Providence   
58   54   Seton Hall   
88   91   Villanova   
101   100   St. John's
113   111   Butler   
162   159   DePaul   
230   233   Georgetown   

February 9 Team Sheets. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 23, 2023
New  Old
6   7   UConn   
15   15   Creighton   
16   16   Marquette   
25   25   Xavier   
39   39   Providence   
59   58   Seton Hall   
85   88   Villanova   
101   101   St. John's
112   113   Butler   
167   162   DePaul
231   230   Georgetown   

February 10 Team Sheets . MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[mugrad_89]

St Mary's at 7 with 2 quad 3 losses?  🧐

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

St Mary's at 7 with 2 quad 3 losses?  🧐

They are up there because they blowout good mid/low majors:

42 point win over #158 Portland
30 point win over #56 North Texas
29 point win @#195 Pepperdine
28 point win over #92 Hofstra
27 point win over #223 San Diego
26 point win over #131 Vermont
20 point win over #141 Missouri State
19 point win over #90 Santa Calra
18 point win over #236 Southern
17 point win @#118 San Francisco
14 point win over #93 LMU
13 point win over #188 New Mexico State
12 point win vs. #199 Wyoming

The also have yet to lose a game by more than 5 points (and that was to #1 Houston on a neutral court).

That's why their NET says their a 2 seed but bracketmatrix says they are a 5 seed (and that will go down as more brackets factor in their latest loss).

[Uncle Rico]

They are up there because they blowout good mid/low majors:

42 point win over #158 Portland
30 point win over #56 North Texas
29 point win @#195 Pepperdine
28 point win over #92 Hofstra
27 point win over #223 San Diego
26 point win over #131 Vermont
20 point win over #141 Missouri State
19 point win over #90 Santa Calra
18 point win over #236 Southern
17 point win @#118 San Francisco
14 point win over #93 LMU
13 point win over #188 New Mexico State
12 point win vs. #199 Wyoming

The also have yet to lose a game by more than 5 points (and that was to #1 Houston on a neutral court).

That's why their NET says their a 2 seed but bracketmatrix says they are a 5 seed (and that will go down as more brackets factor in their latest loss).

Couple things come to mind right away.

1. Randy Bennett can't win close games
2. They're bad test takers

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

They are up there because they blowout good mid/low majors:

42 point win over #158 Portland
30 point win over #56 North Texas
29 point win @#195 Pepperdine
28 point win over #92 Hofstra
27 point win over #223 San Diego
26 point win over #131 Vermont
20 point win over #141 Missouri State
19 point win over #90 Santa Calra
18 point win over #236 Southern
17 point win @#118 San Francisco
14 point win over #93 LMU
13 point win over #188 New Mexico State
12 point win vs. #199 Wyoming

The also have yet to lose a game by more than 5 points (and that was to #1 Houston on a neutral court).

That's why their NET says their a 2 seed but bracketmatrix says they are a 5 seed (and that will go down as more brackets factor in their latest loss).

This is why I think the net needs to have a diminishing returns factor on margin of victory.  The curve should start to flatten out around 20.  Not a hard cap, just a much slower rise.

The difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win is huge, but the difference between a 20 point win and a 40 point win is really immaterial.

That would lessen the impact of these outlier blowouts and improve the NET''s functionality.

[YoungMUFan4]

This is why I think the net needs to have a diminishing returns factor on margin of victory.  The curve should start to flatten out around 20.  Not a hard cap, just a much slower rise.

The difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win is huge, but the difference between a 20 point win and a 40 point win is really immaterial.

That would lessen the impact of these outlier blowouts and improve the NET''s functionality.

I seem to recall them putting a cap on scoring margin differential at 10 points.  However, it's the efficiency numbers that continue to get aided by larger blowouts.