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Author Topic: So much for inflation being "transitory"  (Read 14732 times)

MuggsyB

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #100 on: September 16, 2022, 02:19:45 PM »
Whoa.....check-our FedEx stock price today. 

4everwarriors

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #101 on: September 16, 2022, 02:23:26 PM »
Fook 'em. Their service sucks major ass, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

rocket surgeon

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #102 on: September 16, 2022, 02:31:40 PM »
that was a $240/sh stock 6mos ago!!  thank God i got out in the $230's
don't...don't don't don't don't

Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #103 on: September 22, 2022, 08:54:23 AM »
The Fed still has a lot of work ahead to get inflation under control. Unfortunately, a much lower stock and housing market might be the best option for them. The last three post stock market episodes saw record recoveries in short order, I do not think we will see similar rebounds once the market hits it's low point.

MU82

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #104 on: September 22, 2022, 09:22:02 AM »
The Fed still has a lot of work ahead to get inflation under control. Unfortunately, a much lower stock and housing market might be the best option for them. The last three post stock market episodes saw record recoveries in short order, I do not think we will see similar rebounds once the market hits it's low point.

I agree, the recovery will not be "in short order" this time ... although that's what most people think every time there is a big correction. In the moment, it's always horrible.

Still, over time, the market always goes up. That's why I'm a long-term investor. You probably are, too, Goose.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

4everwarriors

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #105 on: September 22, 2022, 09:32:12 AM »
Dude, still on da fence about the Turkey tourney? Wen kan expect a yay or nay, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #106 on: September 22, 2022, 09:46:23 AM »
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2022, 10:09:13 AM by Goose »

Scoop Snoop

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #107 on: September 22, 2022, 10:06:23 AM »
82

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.


Reality, AKA Arithmetic in this case, always wins in the end.
Wild horses couldn't drag me into either political party, but for very different reasons.

MU82

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #108 on: September 22, 2022, 10:44:44 AM »
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.

I think you're mostly right, Goose.

Among the fellow investors I speak to regularly, I'm one of the big cash-hoarders ... but I'm nowhere near 90%. It's probably a wise move on your part, and I hope it works out well for you.

I'm content with my large-ish cash position and a bunch of boring dividend stocks that will pay me to wait out this turbulence. I don't have any predictions on how deep this one's gonna go, or how long the pain will last, so we'll just see.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

MU82

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #109 on: September 22, 2022, 10:46:17 AM »
Dude, still on da fence about the Turkey tourney? Wen kan expect a yay or nay, hey?

This is an odd obsession you've got, Doc. I did actually respond to your last statement about it in the Fort Myers Tourney thread. I know ... that's a real weird place to talk about the Fort Myers Tourney, nu?
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Herman Cain

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #110 on: September 22, 2022, 11:25:58 AM »
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.
Bear markets are tough to navigate because of Bear market rallies that happen. Inflation and related supply chain issues are still present . Even if the  Fed creates Demand Demand destruction with high rates , the underlying bearish economic scenario still persists .

My posture is mostly cash with only long term dividend payer holdings

If there are crown jewel type companies with good dividend histories that get extremely attractive, I may accumulate . However I only go into those investments with the idea that I would be happy holding these positions if the stock market closed for two years .
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
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Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #111 on: September 22, 2022, 11:55:41 AM »
Herman

That is my feelings on my dividend stocks. Since I am buying monthly, I am perfectly fine with whatever happens to the price during downturn. If these stocks go belly up, we have bigger problems than I think we do. This is only the second time I have been this much in cash, I went into cash on 2/13/2020 because I believed that covid was going to be a far bigger global event than what was being reported. That was 100% hunch based off of the situation in China. I am now in cash because I think there is structural damage to our economy and think things could possibly go really bad.


MU82

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #112 on: September 22, 2022, 12:23:53 PM »
Herman

That is my feelings on my dividend stocks. Since I am buying monthly, I am perfectly fine with whatever happens to the price during downturn. If these stocks go belly up, we have bigger problems than I think we do. This is only the second time I have been this much in cash, I went into cash on 2/13/2020 because I believed that covid was going to be a far bigger global event than what was being reported. That was 100% hunch based off of the situation in China. I am now in cash because I think there is structural damage to our economy and think things could possibly go really bad.

Please define "structural damage to our economy," Goose.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #113 on: September 22, 2022, 01:56:42 PM »
82

I believe there are always cracks/potholes in the economy, but I have never seen quite so many issues. IMO, we have national debt, supply chain exposure (not good for national security), inflation, labor shortage (which I believe ends up being much higher unemployment), too many people not prepared for economic slowdown and/or retirement, rising interest rates in a crazy overheated housing market, wage inflation, student debt, insane cost for apartment rent, commercial real estate defaults and the list goes on. To be honest, I am not sure we have smart enough leaders to allow the economy to navigate all of these issues without a lot of pain being felt.


TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #114 on: September 22, 2022, 05:13:57 PM »
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.
So you are saying you sold 90% of your equities? And took the cap gain hit?
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

jesmu84

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #115 on: September 22, 2022, 05:43:12 PM »
The Fed still has a lot of work ahead to get inflation under control. Unfortunately, a much lower stock and housing market might be the best option for them. The last three post stock market episodes saw record recoveries in short order, I do not think we will see similar rebounds once the market hits it's low point.

I still maintain there HAS to be a way to do this without punishing the poor and causing skyrocketing unemployment

Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #116 on: September 22, 2022, 05:58:35 PM »
TSmith

The 90% is in my retirement plan. I have held onto my dividend stocks and continue to invest. That said, I did sell some non dividend stocks earlier this year and gladly pay cap gains taxes. I have never been afraid to sell a stock and take the tax hit.

Herman Cain

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #117 on: September 22, 2022, 06:20:36 PM »
82

I believe there are always cracks/potholes in the economy, but I have never seen quite so many issues. IMO, we have national debt, supply chain exposure (not good for national security), inflation, labor shortage (which I believe ends up being much higher unemployment), too many people not prepared for economic slowdown and/or retirement, rising interest rates in a crazy overheated housing market, wage inflation, student debt, insane cost for apartment rent, commercial real estate defaults and the list goes on. To be honest, I am not sure we have smart enough leaders to allow the economy to navigate all of these issues without a lot of pain being felt.
Goose
Our business is leveraged to several different sectors of the economy. Consumer Packaged Goods,Food and Beverage  transportation and logistics , The Energy Sector,Industrial and commercial  Real Estate  and Finance . So we have a good laboratory for current economic events .

Our customers are close to the breaking point . At some point if they will not be able to keep pushing costs through to the end user , It will not take much to push some of them into bankruptcies .

We are taking a lot of reserves for bad debt now. My theory is take the medicine up front , allows us to survive for the long term.



 
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
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Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #118 on: September 22, 2022, 06:26:20 PM »
jesmu

There are smart guys on here that I am sure could give better insight on how to avoid a very bad situation, but I think the door is closing on that happening. Of course I do not want the poor to suffer serious pain and they unfortunately normally do. My fear is for middle class to lower upper class folks because I believe they are a big part of our overall economy.

My fear is the velocity of money slowing by the middle 60% of society. I think inflation gets tamed but it will be after the damage has been done. I remember vividly talking with my Dad in 2008 and he predicted 8+% unemployment during the housing crisis and I think we are heading the wrong way on the employment front in the near future.

Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #119 on: September 22, 2022, 06:34:44 PM »
Herman

Our clients range in size from well funded start ups to publicly trading companies and I am seeing disturbing trends. These clients are across many segments of our economy and we are not industry or product specific and money flow is slowing quickly.

For my business I believe we are in a very strong position, provided our clients pay their bills. Our A/R is at record high and past due is at record high. Our biggest clients simply are paying extremely slowly and getting slower. Much of time is spent on chasing money from companies I believe may be struggling.

Would love your opinion, but I think banks are facing major write offs in the coming quarters. Thoughts?

Currently at our firm, we are watching expenditures more than ever. I can take some pain personally to navigate a storm at work and doing just that. I believe the short term pain is worth the long term opportunity.


MuggsyB

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #120 on: September 22, 2022, 07:49:29 PM »
Goose,

I just read that Powell insinuated we will get to 2% interest by 2025.  That doesn't sound like inflation is transitory to me. 

Uncle Rico

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #121 on: September 22, 2022, 07:52:39 PM »
Goose,

I just read that Powell insinuated we will get to 2% interest by 2025.  That doesn't sound like inflation is transitory to me.

It’s transitory
“This is bar none atrocious.  Mitchell cannot shoot either.  What a pile of dung”

MuggsyB

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #122 on: September 22, 2022, 07:54:23 PM »

Goose

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #123 on: September 22, 2022, 08:05:31 PM »
Muggs

It they tank the economy if could be at 2% a year from now. Aside from the positive folks on scoop, I do not know one person that is not worried about the economy and stock market. There are obviously various degrees of concern, but the concern is real.

Not to single Herman out, but I thought his last post was a very interesting perspective from someone I do not think is an alarmist.

MU82

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Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
« Reply #124 on: September 22, 2022, 09:31:12 PM »
82

I believe there are always cracks/potholes in the economy, but I have never seen quite so many issues. IMO, we have national debt, supply chain exposure (not good for national security), inflation, labor shortage (which I believe ends up being much higher unemployment), too many people not prepared for economic slowdown and/or retirement, rising interest rates in a crazy overheated housing market, wage inflation, student debt, insane cost for apartment rent, commercial real estate defaults and the list goes on. To be honest, I am not sure we have smart enough leaders to allow the economy to navigate all of these issues without a lot of pain being felt.

Thanks for the answer, Goose. We agree about many, even most, of those challenges today. I do think there have been many times throughout history at which anybody could point to this, this, this and this and say we were in big trouble.

I mean, when I graduated from Marquette in 1982, we were in a deep recession, inflation was high, mortgage rates were 16% -- yes, 16 effen percent! -- national debt was high ... and as a fun bonus, there were no jobs. It seemed pretty dire then but we came out of it after a little time. Same with 1987 and 2001 and 2008 and 2020.

I am not naive or looking at this through rose-colored glasses. I am not, to use your term, a "positive folk." I think there will be pain ahead for millions and millions, and I hate that for our fellow Americans. Those hurt the most will be those who can least afford it, as usual.

But a year from now or 3 or 5 or 10, after the rich have gotten richer, the middle class has survived and the poor have pulled themselves up by the bootstraps, some Scoopers will be having a similar discussion about the NEXT looming economic crisis. Maybe it even will be you and me.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson