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MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: MuggsyB on September 13, 2022, 10:09:15 AM

Title: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 13, 2022, 10:09:15 AM
We have problems. I don't see much evidence this is going to stabilize any time soon.  Unless I'm missing something?  Would you put some coin in t-bonds for a few years? 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball on September 13, 2022, 10:34:59 AM
It is transitory but yes it will be rough for a while. Economy fades and economy surges, just like it always has.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 13, 2022, 10:46:33 AM
Full employment pushing up wages.   

Continued supply chain issues in China as well as a record breaking heat wave.

Corporate profits way up.

Chip shortage. 

Grocery prices up

Fuel prices down.

If the railroads strike, expect a huge spike.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 13, 2022, 10:54:40 AM
We have problems. I don't see much evidence this is going to stabilize any time soon.  Unless I'm missing something?  Would you put some coin in t-bonds for a few years?

Inflation always takes awhile to be brought to heel. Before this becomes a political discussion, I'll offer this ...

Maybe the best investment out there is the Series I Savings Bond. "I Bonds" are indexed to inflation, and right now their annual rate is 9.62%. It's incredible to get almost 10% interest on anything, let alone something that is 100% safe.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm

Fine print:

++ Each individual can only buy $10K worth per year. A couple can buy $20K. They also can buy $10K worth for each kid, although the money technically would belong to the kid.

++ Each I Bond must be held for at least a year. If cashed in after 1 year but before 5 years, the penalty is the last 3 months' interest -- but even cashed in after a year it currently would produce an effective rate of 7%+. From 5 years on, there is no penalty.

++ Rates can and usually do change every 6 months, in May and November. We don't know what the next rate will be yet ... but if it's lower it won't be by much.

So it's not a place where one can park hundreds of thousands of dollars, but anybody with $10K ($20K for couples) sitting around in checking accounts and who doesn't need the $$$ for at least a year ... it's a complete no-brainer to max out the annual I Bond account.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 13, 2022, 10:55:40 AM
It is transitory but yes it will be rough for a while. Economy fades and economy surges, just like it always has.

I think the issue is the way "transitory" was positioned or used.  Some, not all, tried to brush aside inflationary concerns as something that would pass in weeks or a few months.  Whether it was for political reasons, to bide time to find a solution, or just cause the full extent wasn't known, that doesn't really matter.  I don't think its the end of the world, and agree that economies, even the strongest economies, ebb and flow, but honesty and living in reality is important.

Inflation or economic stumbles can never be placed at the foot of one party or politician or policy.  But in this partisan era, there seems to be a need to immediately blame or scapegoat something, thus this discussion.  That being said, there are a disturbing number of people lacking even the most remedial economic education that don't seem to understand what causes inflation, what can make it worse, and what can be done to solve it, and that is obnoxious.

IBTL
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball on September 13, 2022, 10:59:28 AM
I think the issue is the way "transitory" was positioned or used.  Some, not all, tried to brush aside inflationary concerns as something that would pass in weeks or a few months.  Whether it was for political reasons, to bide time to find a solution, or just cause the full extent wasn't known, that doesn't really matter.  I don't think its the end of the world, and agree that economies, even the strongest economies, ebb and flow, but honesty and living in reality is important.

Inflation or economic stumbles can never be placed at the foot of one party or politician or policy.  But in this partisan era, there seems to be a need to immediately blame or scapegoat something, thus this discussion.  That being said, there are a disturbing number of people lacking even the most remedial economic education that don't seem to understand what causes inflation, what can make it worse, and what can be done to solve it, and that is obnoxious.

IBTL

100% agreed
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: WhiteTrash on September 13, 2022, 11:42:03 AM

Inflation or economic stumbles can never be placed at the foot of one party or politician or policy.  But in this partisan era, there seems to be a need to immediately blame or scapegoat something, thus this discussion.  That being said, there are a disturbing number of people lacking even the most remedial economic education that don't seem to understand what causes inflation, what can make it worse, and what can be done to solve it, and that is obnoxious.

IBTL
Agreed. Same can be said for economic booms. Policies can be a factor in the direction of the economy, but one of 100's of factors.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 13, 2022, 12:47:15 PM
My 2 cents.  Inflation is decreasing and a declining inflation percentage would be a lagging indicator of reality and here's why. 

(My company is near the start of the supply chain as we purchase metals direct from raw material mills.)  Metals have significantly decreased (30-45%) per kilogram in price for six months and actually leveled off in August.  Gas has dropped the last 2 months and is still falling.

The percentage won't drop right away because all the lead times became dragged out for an incredible number of perfect storm reasons each of which would be a big disruption.  I posted these back in early June and here's the repeat.  (I added number 6 that just began September 1 and will cause some effects until resolved.)
***  Supply chain perfect storm series of events from February 2020 to June 2022.

1.       COVID.  Remote work.  Global Cyber attack.

2.       Truck Transport USA shortage.  Lumber shortage.  Labor.

3.       Gulf Freeze Shut-downs. Steel shortage.  Labor

4.       Omicron COVID surge. COVID Relief Bill injection. West Coast Port Congestion.

5.       Russia invasion of Ukraine.  China “0” COVID policy.  Potential WC Port strike.  Labor.

6.       Copper Mill strike in Canada (largest copper mill in North America)


Companies purchased significantly larger quantities than usual and at a higher price than usual to compensate for lead times that went from 2-3 months to 6-8 months.  This inventory is still sitting in company inventories.  Companies need to continue charging the higher price until they expire the older inventory.  New purchases for metal right now are significant lower than 6-12 months ago and lead times are more like 3-4 months.  In addition many companies average the metal price that is charged higher up the food chain at a 3 month or 6 month metal price average and higher up customers are just starting to see the lower price this month after the highest prices were averaged out.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 13, 2022, 01:18:31 PM
So, COVID is bad for inflation.
War is bad for inflation.
Supply chain issues are bad for inflation.
Full employment causes upward pressures on wages, which leads to .....

Well, you know.     Irksome.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 02:03:11 PM
MU Fan

All of that is great info and thanks for sharing. That being said, I believe we have lived in a fantasy world for a minimum of 21 years, and could argue 5-7 more years, and traditional wisdom (like you shared) has less meaning today, IMO. Unfortunately, I think it is going to take a serious, serious downside move in the stock market and housing market to bring inflation. Too many people had access to cheap money, or easy money, it removed common sense to the consumer.

I was just talking with a good friend of mine (real estate person) and I said that any real estate agent in greater MKE that is selling houses to someone at bloated prices today they are guilty of malpractice. I watch local real estate pricing closely and think all common sense has been robbed of those looking to purchase a home. I laugh when they talk about how a couple points in mortgage rate is a game changer, how about paying $700k for house that was $400k 3-4 years ago.

I wish raw material costs, shipping costs and bloated inventories was the only problems we have in our economy. Good news, as bad as I think our economy is going to get, I am very happy that I do not live in China or Europe because I think their challenges are going to be immense.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 13, 2022, 02:27:41 PM
Full employment pushing up wages.   

Continued supply chain issues in China as well as a record breaking heat wave.

Corporate profits way up.

Chip shortage. 

Grocery prices up

Fuel prices down.

If the railroads strike, expect a huge spike.

We’ve had “full employment” for quite some time. More deceiving now than ever because a record number have left the work force.

The stock market is down this year and struggling. That tells me that profits will be turning down big time due to government policies that are forcing fed policy.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 13, 2022, 02:30:50 PM
It is transitory but yes it will be rough for a while. Economy fades and economy surges, just like it always has.

Transitory as in only death is permanent. By that measure every recession or depression is transitory. That’s not what Biden meant by transitory, though, and I think you know that. Several economists who worked for Obama certainly did.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 13, 2022, 02:42:16 PM
I’m pulling for an economic downturn to stick it to the libs
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 02:42:37 PM
Lenny,

There is full employment at the moment, but I believe there will be a nice number of smart people that will be looking for work in upcoming months. Employment numbers are great to watch, but I look watching how smart companies handle their workforce. In my book, the big tech guys and big finance guys are the ones to watch. Big tech is announcing job cuts, marketing cuts and other cost cutting measures and they know what they are doing. I think a year from now the employment situation is going to look a lot different than it does today. Tech and finance guys are proactive and when they make moves, I definitely take note of it.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: muwarrior69 on September 13, 2022, 03:19:35 PM
Lenny,

There is full employment at the moment, but I believe there will be a nice number of smart people that will be looking for work in upcoming months. Employment numbers are great to watch, but I look watching how smart companies handle their workforce. In my book, the big tech guys and big finance guys are the ones to watch. Big tech is announcing job cuts, marketing cuts and other cost cutting measures and they know what they are doing. I think a year from now the employment situation is going to look a lot different than it does today. Tech and finance guys are proactive and when they make moves, I definitely take note of it.

Not just Big Tech.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62885047
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 13, 2022, 03:27:03 PM
I assume there will be layoffs.   Who wants to pay all of those high salaries?   Along with the shakeout of working from home v. working from the office.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 13, 2022, 03:31:19 PM
We’ve had “full employment” for quite some time. More deceiving now than ever because a record number have left the work force.

The stock market is down this year and struggling. That tells me that profits will be turning down big time due to government policies that are forcing fed policy.

I had a meeting with my Financial Adviser last week.
Ameriprise is still bullish on the stock market.  He said September is always the worst month every year for the stock market.  Based on stock market history and statistical performance 2022 year to date they expect a rebound in 4Q and all of 2023 as all those major disruptions get further in the rearview mirror.

I read something this week that the US housing market is short 2 million housing units.  One of the reasons home prices are not expected to drop much at all.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: muwarrior69 on September 13, 2022, 03:48:04 PM
I assume there will be layoffs.   Who wants to pay all of those high salaries?   Along with the shakeout of working from home v. working from the office.

Who wants to work 95 hours a week? I guess you make big money while your young, retire at 40 and start living a life; but.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 13, 2022, 04:01:22 PM
Who wants to work 95 hours a week? I guess you make big money while your young, retire at 40 and start living a life; but.

I’m a lobbyist.  Life is easy, ain’a
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball on September 13, 2022, 04:06:00 PM
Transitory as in only death is permanent. By that measure every recession or depression is transitory. That’s not what Biden meant by transitory, though, and I think you know that. Several economists who worked for Obama certainly did.

I don't know that. I understood it as we are heading for a rough patch but it will end as all economic rough patches end. I don't think he or anyone else know for sure how long this will last.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: dgies9156 on September 13, 2022, 04:08:00 PM
As an old codger, I'm aware of the impact of the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks on the economy. While there were many reasons why inflation was out of control in the 1970s, the price of oil was a huge issue then and it is now.

We will not have inflation under control until we get control of energy prices. Petrochemicals, natural gas and carbon-based fuel underlies almost everything we do, from heating and cooling our homes to transportation to manufacturing to refining of raw materials to agriculture. In the past two years, we've seen a doubling in the cost of gasoline and a barrel of crude rise from $42 to almost $100 a barrel. Because this is sustained, we have inflation.

Energy prices drop and we get back to something close to normal.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 13, 2022, 04:08:09 PM
I’m pulling for an economic downturn to stick it to the libs

Congrats, you already have your downturn (back to back quarters of negative growth). Unfortunately, the libs aren’t the only one getting stuck - by their fellow libs. Everyone is being stuck.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: NCMUFan on September 13, 2022, 04:09:03 PM
Inflation always takes awhile to be brought to heel. Before this becomes a political discussion, I'll offer this ...

Maybe the best investment out there is the Series I Savings Bond. "I Bonds" are indexed to inflation, and right now their annual rate is 9.62%. It's incredible to get almost 10% interest on anything, let alone something that is 100% safe.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm

Fine print:

++ Each individual can only buy $10K worth per year. A couple can buy $20K. They also can buy $10K worth for each kid, although the money technically would belong to the kid.

++ Each I Bond must be held for at least a year. If cashed in after 1 year but before 5 years, the penalty is the last 3 months' interest -- but even cashed in after a year it currently would produce an effective rate of 7%+. From 5 years on, there is no penalty.

++ Rates can and usually do change every 6 months, in May and November. We don't know what the next rate will be yet ... but if it's lower it won't be by much.

So it's not a place where one can park hundreds of thousands of dollars, but anybody with $10K ($20K for couples) sitting around in checking accounts and who doesn't need the $$$ for at least a year ... it's a complete no-brainer to max out the annual I Bond account.
Thanks, well worth looking into.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 13, 2022, 04:19:11 PM
Congrats, you already have your downturn (back to back quarters of negative growth). Unfortunately, the libs aren’t the only one getting stuck - by their fellow libs. Everyone is being stuck.

Not me.  I’m killing it and that’s all I care about.  Ruthless capitalists don’t have time for the little people
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 13, 2022, 04:28:56 PM
I had a meeting with my Financial Adviser last week.
Ameriprise is still bullish on the stock market.  He said September is always the worst month every year for the stock market.  Based on stock market history and statistical performance 2022 year to date they expect a rebound in 4Q and all of 2023 as all those major disruptions get further in the rearview mirror.

I read something this week that the US housing market is short 2 million housing units.  One of the reasons home prices are not expected to drop much at all.

Glad he’s still bullish. At some point he’ll be right, I hope soon. But the S+P is down 18% in the last 8 months. The Nasdaq (where the real money has been made in the market) is down 28%. As corrections in this bull market are concerned, this one is deep and extended.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Golden Avalanche on September 13, 2022, 04:36:42 PM
Inflation has moderated. Inflation has stabilized. It just didn't lower enough relative to unrealistic expectations.

Yet again we find ourselves in a self-propelled mouth breather spiral. It's hysterical this crap still happens after decades of walking the same path littered with dullards.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 05:22:58 PM
Warrior69

Goldman and Apple do not let grass under their feet. Smart people always set the trends and I think there are going to be a lot of high paying jobs being lost in the coming months.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 13, 2022, 05:31:18 PM
I thought inflation was because of the government money printer injecting too much in combination with people receiving $2000 checks?

If Congress would both work on fixing supply chains and prevent price gouging, many day-to-day aspects of inflation would be fixed. But that entity (congress) is broken.

Can't do much about impacts of a foreign war.

Wall Street and housing have been inflated for such a long time that I'm not sure anything will be able to correct that.

The Fed pushing us into a recession is not the answer. Of course, them going to 0% shouldn't have happened either.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 05:42:45 PM
I think the stimulus added to inflation but I firmly believe that bloated stock prices and home prices was a big factor. As long as housing prices are at crazy levels I think lowering inflation will be tough. Folks getting a sizable home equity loan due to price increase in their home caused a spending frenzy, IMO.

In the past few weeks I was at a home that I would not buy for $400k and they just completed a $100k makeover and did not think twice about it. I do not believe the couple is heavy earners, but I could be wrong, and I was floored at how little they thought about spending the money. Again, I think there has been a great deal of reckless decisions based off folks believing they are wealthier than they really are.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 13, 2022, 05:45:38 PM
There are words missing there, but I think I get your drift.   
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 05:50:37 PM
tower

On my phone and tried to make the corrections, sorry about that.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 13, 2022, 05:57:21 PM
All good.   And good for a chuckle as you are generally very good at posting complete thoughts.   
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 13, 2022, 05:58:32 PM
I think the stimulus added to inflation but I am firmly believe that bloated stock prices and home prices was a big factor. As long as housing prices are at crazy levels I think lowering inflation will be tough. Folks getting a sizable home equity loan due to price increase in their home caused a spending frenzy, IMO.

In the past few weeks I was at a home that I would not buy for $400k and they just completed a $100k makeover and did not think twice about it. I do not believe the couple is heavy earners, but I could be wrong, and I was floored at how little they thought about spending the money. Again, I think there has been a great deal of reckless decisions based off folks believing they are wealthier than they really are.

There is a very pervasive belief in "real estate ALWAYS goes up".  And while that is true to a certain extent in the long run, it leads to absurd short term behavior.  Like the renos you talk about.  Like people buying 15-20% over, and not $30K on a $250K house, and just assuming that will be made up in short time.

Ive mentioned, my parents bought in St Pete, fairly nice new development, in a 2 floor townhouse type unit.  They've seen nearly 40% appreciation in a year.  There are full floor condos in a 4-5 story building nearer to the water that are selling for $4MM when the same units sold for $1.7 2 years ago.

My friends bought a rental/investment property in Hilton Head a bit over a year ago.  Nice area, but older development, unit needs some updating, they paid around $300K.  Comparable units, also needing updating and TLC, are selling for $550-$575K and not sticking around long.  They may sell cause its just insane.

And while those are warm weather "vacation" type places, Ive heard the same stories from people in Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia.  My sister and BIL bought in Richmond and had people come $40-50K over the top on $400K houses that in a vacuum were probably barely worth $300K and needing work.

Its wholly inflated and unsustainable.  People says it will continue and its a great time to buy and will continue that way until things implode and suddenly 50% is shaved off in a year.  Among many things, Im very happy I'm not in a buying position for another few years cause it all makes me very uneasy.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 06:08:17 PM
Wags

Good buddy of mine from college bought a house for $400k in Naples in 2018, sold it for $780k in 2021 and it was listed earlier this year at $1.3m. I get people relocating to warmer climates, but sooner or later you are going to run out of buyers.

In hot real estate spots, I believe foreign buyers and crypto guys drove the crazy high market it unreal levels. Great way to launder money or hide profits and that is a different level of buyer. That likely will not change.

I will add, sadly, that the recent run up in pricing in Florida has delayed my dream of moving there in the next 5-7 years, but such is life.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 13, 2022, 06:19:23 PM
Inflation has moderated. Inflation has stabilized. It just didn't lower enough relative to unrealistic expectations.

Yet again we find ourselves in a self-propelled mouth breather spiral. It's hysterical this crap still happens after decades of walking the same path littered with dullards.

This is simply not true. It didn’t “lower” at all - it rose. And it (CPI) rose in spite of a major drop in gas prices. That’s disturbing. Dow futures were up 200+ when the number came out. The Dow closed down more than 1200 points. Traders and economists were caught totally off guard by the bad news. And make no mistake, it was very bad news. But, sure, they’re all mouth breathing dullards - you’re the only smart guy. How many Nasdaq and S+P puts were you long coming into today? LOL.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 06:32:17 PM
Lenny

There were a lot of smart guys on the right side of the number today. The number of shorts in the market is at a crazy level, not just the usual suspects. Anyone that thinks the number was good day, is not very informed. Knock on wood, we released over 8 million barrels of reserves last week to help on gas prices.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 13, 2022, 06:32:58 PM
It is transitory but yes it will be rough for a while. Economy fades and economy surges, just like it always has.

Empires also crumble from within.  I think "Economy fade and economy surges", whatever you mean by that, isn't a particularly strong analysis. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 13, 2022, 06:56:50 PM
Lenny

There were a lot of smart guys on the right side of the number today. The number of shorts in the market is at a crazy level, not just the usual suspects. Anyone that thinks the number was good day, is not very informed. Knock on wood, we released over 8 million barrels of reserves last week to help on gas prices.

Goose

No doubt there were a lot of shorts - that’s why volatility has remained high recently - making “put” buying expensive. But as you know, for every short position there’s a corresponding long one. So, as is always the case, some won, some lost. Fortunes made, but lots of blood on the tracks.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball on September 13, 2022, 07:43:08 PM
Empires also crumble from within.  I think "Economy fade and economy surges", whatever you mean by that, isn't a particularly strong analysis.

Are you implying that this is going to be the thing that kills the USA? Because I'll take you up on that bet
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 13, 2022, 07:49:51 PM
Are you implying that this is going to be the thing that kills the USA? Because I'll take you up on that bet

No, 'm not saying that.  I'm just an alarmist and not happy about a lot of bad decisions.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 13, 2022, 07:56:15 PM
No, 'm not saying that.  I'm just an alarmist and not happy about a lot of bad decisions.


I think a lot of people on both sides of the aisle did a pretty good job with imperfect information during a global pandemic.  And a lot of this has nothing to do with decisions made here.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 08:01:09 PM
TAMU

I do not think this economic downturn is going to structurally going to change America, but I think a lot people that thought they were stock market and real estate experts are going to feel a lot of pain. One thing I learned 50 years ago from my Dad, you lose money twice as fast you make it in crazy times. As Lenny stated, there was blood on the tracks today and I think there are a lot of traders out there that think they will outsmart the market.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball on September 13, 2022, 08:13:03 PM
I don't disagree with any of that Goose. I have the advantage of youth and not needing my investments in the short term. I don't try to outsmart the market. I'm confident the market will rise again long before I need my investments. I recognize that not everyone has my situation and I hope those hit hardest can recover.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 08:15:36 PM
Muggs

I think the S&P hit around 2300 in March of 2020 and then one of the greatest rebounds in history occurred, all while businesses were shuttered, travel came to a halt and countless other once in a lifetime events unfolded before our eyes. The easiest of easy money was made, not on fundamentals but based of two decades of financial irresponsibility by our leaders.

IMO the Fed and government did whatever they could to keep things afloat, first 9/11, then housing crisis and then pandemic. Each event was bigger than the previous one and somehow a magic wand not only kept things in the rails, but created a market that you would have tried to lose money.

I think the Fed and government saved the day in the housing crisis and used unnecessary measures during the pandemic. I have no idea how low the S&P goes, but I think it can go real low.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 13, 2022, 08:15:40 PM
TAMU

I do not think this economic downturn is going to structurally going to change America, but I think a lot people that thought they were stock market and real estate experts are going to feel a lot of pain. One thing I learned 50 years ago from my Dad, you lose money twice as fast you make it in crazy times. As Lenny stated, there was blood on the tracks today and I think there are a lot of traders out there that think they will outsmart the market.

This is why I buy houses mostly to live in and just invest in mutual funds targeted to my likely retirement date. I feel way out of my depth in both fields.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 13, 2022, 08:15:47 PM

I think a lot of people on both sides of the aisle did a pretty good job with imperfect information during a global pandemic.  And a lot of this has nothing to do with decisions made here.

I'm not sure what your point has to do with inflation today. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 13, 2022, 08:22:04 PM
I'm not sure what your point has to do with inflation today. 

Well what bad decisions did people make that you are referring to?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 13, 2022, 08:30:46 PM
TAMU

As I told my 29 year old son, be thankful you were in a position to lose as much as money as he has since November. He has age on his side, like you, and better days ahead and no doubt you will see more crazy times over upcoming decades.

Another lesson learned from my Dad, every April he said he feels sorry for guys that do not owe taxes and he was a gray area guy and did whatever he could to minimize his tax bill. Similar to that, be thankful you have money to lose and time on your side.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 13, 2022, 08:32:53 PM
Well what bad decisions did people make that you are referring to?

The Fed didn't act quickly enough.  There's no need for a political discussion but the most recent spending bills have not helped the overall economy. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 13, 2022, 08:35:25 PM
Inflation always takes awhile to be brought to heel. Before this becomes a political discussion, I'll offer this ...

Maybe the best investment out there is the Series I Savings Bond. "I Bonds" are indexed to inflation, and right now their annual rate is 9.62%. It's incredible to get almost 10% interest on anything, let alone something that is 100% safe.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm

Fine print:

++ Each individual can only buy $10K worth per year. A couple can buy $20K. They also can buy $10K worth for each kid, although the money technically would belong to the kid.

++ Each I Bond must be held for at least a year. If cashed in after 1 year but before 5 years, the penalty is the last 3 months' interest -- but even cashed in after a year it currently would produce an effective rate of 7%+. From 5 years on, there is no penalty.

++ Rates can and usually do change every 6 months, in May and November. We don't know what the next rate will be yet ... but if it's lower it won't be by much.

So it's not a place where one can park hundreds of thousands of dollars, but anybody with $10K ($20K for couples) sitting around in checking accounts and who doesn't need the $$$ for at least a year ... it's a complete no-brainer to max out the annual I Bond account.




Nads, this is the most intelligent piece you've ever written on this site, hey?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 13, 2022, 09:00:26 PM
Thanks?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 13, 2022, 09:10:32 PM


I will add, sadly, that the recent run up in pricing in Florida has delayed my dream of moving there in the next 5-7 years, but such is life.

Goose

Mortgage rates have risen from 2.8% to 5.9%. And they’re going higher. Home prices are already off their highs in most markets and will fall everywhere eventually as fewer and fewer can qualify. But supply is short so in the most desirous locations price drops may be modest. All depends how long this mess lasts.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 13, 2022, 09:28:29 PM
Glad he’s still bullish. At some point he’ll be right, I hope soon. But the S+P is down 18% in the last 8 months. The Nasdaq (where the real money has been made in the market) is down 28%. As corrections in this bull market are concerned, this one is deep and extended.

That's not his position that's Ameriprise the financial corporation's.   Because the numbers are down as you say the history says where they are now is the bottom and will rise from here.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on September 13, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Thanks?

Made me honestly think about doing what you posted too.

🎵 why can't we be friends
Why can't we be friends.  🎵
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 13, 2022, 10:02:11 PM
For those interested in more information on I Bonds, this Seeking Alpha author writes fairly often about them. His reports are comprehensive and easy to read. Here's his latest:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539511-should-you-invest-in-i-bonds

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 13, 2022, 10:17:33 PM
For those interested in more information on I Bonds, this Seeking Alpha author writes fairly often about them. His reports are comprehensive and easy to read. Here's his latest:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539511-should-you-invest-in-i-bonds

Ty MU82.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 14, 2022, 04:28:11 AM
The Fed didn't act quickly enough.  There's no need for a political discussion but the most recent spending bills have not helped the overall economy. 

Gotcha. Agree on the fed. And the latest spending bills have way too much long term spending to help the economy. But I don’t think they have much impact on inflation either.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 14, 2022, 07:07:11 AM
As an old codger, I'm aware of the impact of the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks on the economy. While there were many reasons why inflation was out of control in the 1970s, the price of oil was a huge issue then and it is now.

We will not have inflation under control until we get control of energy prices. Petrochemicals, natural gas and carbon-based fuel underlies almost everything we do, from heating and cooling our homes to transportation to manufacturing to refining of raw materials to agriculture. In the past two years, we've seen a doubling in the cost of gasoline and a barrel of crude rise from $42 to almost $100 a barrel. Because this is sustained, we have inflation.

Energy prices drop and we get back to something close to normal.

Perhaps true in the 70s, but not true today. If oil was the principal driver of inflation we would have seen huge spikes between 2004 and 2014 when oil surged, at one point to over $140/barrel. We didn't.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: PBRme on September 14, 2022, 08:20:17 AM
Gotcha. Agree on the fed. And the latest spending bills have way too much long term spending to help the economy. But I don’t think they have much impact on inflation either.

The markets are a leading indicator and spending bills are stimulus.  In addition, the dollar is at close to all time highs (typically a disinflationary impact) as Ukraine/Energy shocks dissipate and the dollar moves back down there is another round of inflation coming and the market is anticipating this.  I think we will see 7+% inflation for the next 2-3 years maybe higher depending on the dollar.  Abd in general i think the fed is always out of phase with reality (too early or too late)
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MUBurrow on September 14, 2022, 09:01:19 AM
Goose

Mortgage rates have risen from 2.8% to 5.9%. And they’re going higher. Home prices are already off their highs in most markets and will fall everywhere eventually as fewer and fewer can qualify. But supply is short so in the most desirous locations price drops may be modest. All depends how long this mess lasts.

I am really interested to see if home prices drop off, or if they just flatten out.  I'm on the younger side, and was kind of molded in the post-08 economy, so I always assume that houses are like stonks and prices will drop in a weak market.  But my limited understanding is that the 2000s were one of the first times ever that home prices actually dropped, and that a slowdown has traditionally always meant suppressed rises in prices, but that homes have not traditionally lost value.  Although I can imagine a lot of places in Florida probably are outliers to that trend (to the extent I have it correct) given the higher volatility in prices there and the less elastic demand of retirees looking to locate there.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Scoop Snoop on September 14, 2022, 09:15:37 AM
I am really interested to see if home prices drop off, or if they just flatten out.  I'm on the younger side, and was kind of molded in the post-08 economy, so I always assume that houses are like stonks and prices will drop in a weak market.  But my limited understanding is that the 2000s were one of the first times ever that home prices actually dropped, and that a slowdown has traditionally always meant suppressed rises in prices, but that homes have not traditionally lost value.  Although I can imagine a lot of places in Florida probably are outliers to that trend (to the extent I have it correct) given the higher volatility in prices there and the less elastic demand of retirees looking to locate there.

Keep in mind that the post 08' crash in home prices was triggered largely by a massive number of defaults resulting from reckless lending practices in the preceding years. While the real estate market is not locked in with the cost of labor and materials for construction, those are factors. Neither the cost of labor nor materials are likely to decline in my opinion.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 14, 2022, 09:22:19 AM
I am really interested to see if home prices drop off, or if they just flatten out.  I'm on the younger side, and was kind of molded in the post-08 economy, so I always assume that houses are like stonks and prices will drop in a weak market.  But my limited understanding is that the 2000s were one of the first times ever that home prices actually dropped, and that a slowdown has traditionally always meant suppressed rises in prices, but that homes have not traditionally lost value.  Although I can imagine a lot of places in Florida probably are outliers to that trend (to the extent I have it correct) given the higher volatility in prices there and the less elastic demand of retirees looking to locate there.

FWIW, per my Financial Adviser last week said Ameriprise's position is home prices will stabilize for more or less what you said. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 14, 2022, 09:43:26 AM
I think home prices are going to stabilize, mostly due to higher interest rates, but there is a massive supply shortage in a lot of markets that will keep prices from sliding significantly. I read something last week that the 2008 recession slowed down people moving into the skilled trades because there just weren't job opportunities for carpenters, electricians and plumbers.  Now all those professions are needed because we just need more housing units.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: forgetful on September 14, 2022, 10:21:11 AM
FWIW, per my Financial Adviser last week said Ameriprise's position is home prices will stabilize for more or less what you said.

I guess it depends on time scale. Right now in my area, homes are selling at ~5-10% lower than they were in April and May, and inventories are rising.

Now, my area saw an extreme increase, that was essentially unaffordable.

If inflation continues, I would expect a similar situation nationwide with home prices falling at least 5-10%, and more in areas that experienced rapid increases.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 14, 2022, 11:11:15 AM
I guess it depends on time scale. Right now in my area, homes are selling at ~5-10% lower than they were in April and May, and inventories are rising.

Now, my area saw an extreme increase, that was essentially unaffordable.

If inflation continues, I would expect a similar situation nationwide with home prices falling at least 5-10%, and more in areas that experienced rapid increases.

And that's probably where they will stabilize at in the 5-10% reduction range. 

Weren't home prices up 30-40%?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: forgetful on September 14, 2022, 11:36:35 AM
And that's probably where they will stabilize at in the 5-10% reduction range. 

Weren't home prices up 30-40%?

Yes, they were up crazy amounts. We are in agreement then.

A crisis could be on the horizon if we keep seeing inflation and get back to a point where those that bought during the 30-40% run up, cannot afford their mortgage and we see another rash of foreclosures.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 14, 2022, 11:41:06 AM
And that's probably where they will stabilize at in the 5-10% reduction range. 

Weren't home prices up 30-40%?

If you think home prices, given the market the last few years, will stabilize in a 5-10% reduction range and then move upwards again, I don't know what to tell you.  And if they do, there are huge issues under the surface that are being painted over yet again.  I'm not an alarmist, but a realist and healthy markets just don't work like that.  And free money that heats up economies is never truly free.

And with all due respect to your relationship at Ameriprise, its been my experience that large corporate financial advisors never preach any sort of meaningful or concerning downside.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 14, 2022, 12:35:29 PM
And free money that heats up economies is never truly free.

The biggest amount of "free money" that nobody is mentioning was a Fed benchmark rate 2.5% or under since 2008!  So much money has been flowing because of that - because loans have basically been free.  It did go on for far too long - and is being rectified now. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: real chili 83 on September 14, 2022, 12:45:21 PM
Nothing more than a fire sale, eh?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 14, 2022, 12:53:21 PM
Concerns about a potential railway strike?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 14, 2022, 12:55:23 PM
I think the issue is the way "transitory" was positioned or used.  Some, not all, tried to brush aside inflationary concerns as something that would pass in weeks or a few months.  Whether it was for political reasons, to bide time to find a solution, or just cause the full extent wasn't known, that doesn't really matter.  I don't think its the end of the world, and agree that economies, even the strongest economies, ebb and flow, but honesty and living in reality is important.

Inflation or economic stumbles can never be placed at the foot of one party or politician or policy.  But in this partisan era, there seems to be a need to immediately blame or scapegoat something, thus this discussion.  That being said, there are a disturbing number of people lacking even the most remedial economic education that don't seem to understand what causes inflation, what can make it worse, and what can be done to solve it, and that is obnoxious.

IBTL

/thread
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 14, 2022, 01:01:46 PM
As an old codger, I'm aware of the impact of the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks on the economy. While there were many reasons why inflation was out of control in the 1970s, the price of oil was a huge issue then and it is now.

We will not have inflation under control until we get control of energy prices. Petrochemicals, natural gas and carbon-based fuel underlies almost everything we do, from heating and cooling our homes to transportation to manufacturing to refining of raw materials to agriculture. In the past two years, we've seen a doubling in the cost of gasoline and a barrel of crude rise from $42 to almost $100 a barrel. Because this is sustained, we have inflation.

Energy prices drop and we get back to something close to normal.

So you're saying, drop the sanctions on Venezuela and normalize relations?  I'm in.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 14, 2022, 01:13:09 PM
The Fed didn't act quickly enough.  There's no need for a political discussion but the most recent spending bills have not helped the overall economy.

On the contrary, they've absolutely helped the economy.  Arguing otherwise is objectively wrong.

Without that spending, the economy as a whole would be in shambles.  Will it hurt us for a while?  Yeah probably, but the whole of the world is hurting.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 14, 2022, 01:40:51 PM
I think home prices are going to stabilize, mostly due to higher interest rates, but there is a massive supply shortage in a lot of markets that will keep prices from sliding significantly. I read something last week that the 2008 recession slowed down people moving into the skilled trades because there just weren't job opportunities for carpenters, electricians and plumbers.  Now all those professions are needed because we just need more housing units.

I think home prices will continue to rise, but more slowly.  With interest rates the highest they've been in a generation (think about that) that should slow the average buyer, and will continue to put upward pressure on 'starter homes'... since people will continue to look for 'deals'... especially for investment reasons.

So We have:
1.  Interest rates pushing prices downward
2.  Materials cost pushing prices upward
3.  Inventory pushing prices upward

The number one thing that a lot of people forget is the continued urbanization of the US population.  Single family homes can continue to be built, but they will continue to be built further and further from urban centers.  Which goes contrary to what people want. 

What does all of this mean?  Who can afford new housing in desirable places?  People with a ton of money who can subvert interest rates by paying cash.  Buy real estate in urban centers in cash and charge rent to people who want to live in those places but have been priced out of ownership by high prices and high interest rates.  With rental prices continuing to rise, they'll be perpetual renters spending 30-50% of their income on housing.  I've been saying this for a couple of years now, but we are well on the path to Neofuedalism.  Unless the US promotes legislation that stops investment firms from owning and renting homes, condos, and apartments in large numbers we will run  into the same problem that Canada has.

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/investors-own-nearly-a-third-of-homes-in-major-canadian-markets-2

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 14, 2022, 03:15:48 PM


So We have:
1.  Interest rates pushing prices downward
2.  Materials cost pushing prices upward
3.  Inventory pushing prices upward




#1 is no doubt true. #2 has been, but commodity prices topped out in June and the slowdown that interest rate hikes portends will bring them lower still. #3 is true, but again, hikes in interest rates will make the pool of potential buyers smaller. So (imo) one pushing prices lower, one having no effect and one supporting prices (but not to the extent that it had been). I think prices will pull back for the near and intermediate term.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 14, 2022, 04:06:20 PM
#1 is no doubt true. #2 has been, but commodity prices topped out in June and the slowdown that interest rate hikes portends will bring them lower still. #3 is true, but again, hikes in interest rates will make the pool of potential buyers smaller. So (imo) one pushing prices lower, one having no effect and one supporting prices (but not to the extent that it had been). I think prices will pull back for the near and intermediate term.

Perhaps, but the last two years of extremely low inventory and lots of buyers still needs some time to reconcile.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 14, 2022, 06:49:27 PM
Concerns about a potential railway strike?




For sure Mugster. Everything moves by truck and/or rail. Hold on to your run-a-way inflation tuckus, hey?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 14, 2022, 07:55:12 PM
Muggs

A rail strike would cause serious issues. Anyone not concerned is delusional.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 14, 2022, 08:11:41 PM
Muggs

A rail strike would cause serious issues. Anyone not concerned is delusional.

I think if it happens it will be a relatively short strike but I agree with you Goose.  As a side note how can I tell if someone is delusional, lying, or has been hoodwinked? 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 14, 2022, 08:17:08 PM
Muggs

Based on my internet communication, I am going with delusional, followed by lack of sense of reality.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 14, 2022, 08:22:51 PM
Muggs

Based on my internet communication, I am going with delusional, followed by lack of sense of reality.

Fair enough.  Sometimes I can overanalyze stuff.  I am fortunate Goose and I assume you and most of the Scoopers are as well.  But there are truly many, many, people struggling right now.  We need to do better and leaving la-la land, and joining reality, would be my suggestion. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 14, 2022, 08:25:22 PM
Concerns about a potential railway strike?

Solidarity with the workers

Hopefully the government does the right thing
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 14, 2022, 08:27:53 PM
I think home prices will continue to rise, but more slowly.  With interest rates the highest they've been in a generation (think about that) that should slow the average buyer, and will continue to put upward pressure on 'starter homes'... since people will continue to look for 'deals'... especially for investment reasons.

So We have:
1.  Interest rates pushing prices downward
2.  Materials cost pushing prices upward
3.  Inventory pushing prices upward

The number one thing that a lot of people forget is the continued urbanization of the US population.  Single family homes can continue to be built, but they will continue to be built further and further from urban centers.  Which goes contrary to what people want. 

What does all of this mean?  Who can afford new housing in desirable places?  People with a ton of money who can subvert interest rates by paying cash.  Buy real estate in urban centers in cash and charge rent to people who want to live in those places but have been priced out of ownership by high prices and high interest rates.  With rental prices continuing to rise, they'll be perpetual renters spending 30-50% of their income on housing.  I've been saying this for a couple of years now, but we are well on the path to Neofuedalism.  Unless the US promotes legislation that stops investment firms from owning and renting homes, condos, and apartments in large numbers we will run  into the same problem that Canada has.

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/investors-own-nearly-a-third-of-homes-in-major-canadian-markets-2

Easier to keep the peons in line if they need 50% of their take home for rent. That plus tying health insurance to employment.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 14, 2022, 08:35:35 PM
Solidarity with the workers

Hopefully the government does the right thing

Aren't there 12 unions or something involved?  Apparently Amtrak is canceling long distance trains in  Oakland on Fri.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Dickthedribbler on September 14, 2022, 09:55:01 PM
Aren't there 12 unions or something involved?  Apparently Amtrak is canceling long distance trains in  Oakland on Fri.

Amtrak has cancelled many long distance routes the last couple of days. Empire Builder ( Chi--Seattle), Southwest Chief ( Chi--LA) and California Zephyr ( Chi--SF). They don't want a trainload of passengers stranded in the middle of nowhere at 12:01 am Friday when the strike would start.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Dickthedribbler on September 14, 2022, 10:55:44 PM
Muggs

Based on my internet communication, I am going with delusional, followed by lack of sense of reality.

Whenever I find myself a little overwrought and beaten down by inflation, I quietly sing this little ditty to myself:

"Oh, I've seen fire and I've seen rain
I've seen lonely times when I could not
    Find a friend."

And everything is suddenly better.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 14, 2022, 11:03:49 PM
Whenever I find myself a little overwrought and beaten down by inflation, I quietly sing this little ditty to myself:

"Oh, I've seen fire and I've seen rain
I've seen lonely times when I could not
    Find a friend."



And everything is suddenly better.

Isn't that song about suicide?  I had no idea James Taylor was still alive.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 15, 2022, 03:44:05 AM
Let's all bust out a little Kumbaya in unison as a show of support for the penguins who struggle mightily in the Amazon each and every day, aina?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 15, 2022, 05:49:47 AM
Strike averted. Glad the administration brokered a deal - at least in the short term.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: muwarrior69 on September 15, 2022, 05:52:36 AM
Strike averted. Glad the administration brokered a deal - at least in the short term.

https://nypost.com/2022/09/15/biden-administration-says-tentative-deal-reached-to-avoid-national-rail-strike/

That is a good thing. A rail strike would have hurt a lot of people.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 15, 2022, 06:18:11 AM
It is a good thing.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 15, 2022, 06:57:15 AM
Fret not lads, Dark Brandon is on the case.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 15, 2022, 08:41:03 AM
A bit more details here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/business/rail-strike.html

Here's the reason there was a proposed strike, primarily:
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 15, 2022, 08:59:58 AM
Definitely good news.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 15, 2022, 11:14:55 AM
A bit more details here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/business/rail-strike.html

Here's the reason there was a proposed strike, primarily:

I wonder what the parameters are of that. Cause obviously that scenario is unquestionably BS.  But my BIL was an engineer for one of the major rail companies and his schedule was much like an oil rig worker.  He'd be on a week, off a week.  On 10 days off a week, or situations like that.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 15, 2022, 11:23:05 AM
I wonder what the parameters are of that. Cause obviously that scenario is unquestionably BS.  But my BIL was an engineer for one of the major rail companies and his schedule was much like an oil rig worker.  He'd be on a week, off a week.  On 10 days off a week, or situations like that.

Agreed. Obviously anyone can post what they want on social media.

There have been a few interviews of rail workers explaining the situation over the last couple days. I'll see if I can find any
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: lawdog77 on September 15, 2022, 12:03:34 PM
I wonder what the parameters are of that. Cause obviously that scenario is unquestionably BS.  But my BIL was an engineer for one of the major rail companies and his schedule was much like an oil rig worker.  He'd be on a week, off a week.  On 10 days off a week, or situations like that.
Yes, there are federal regulations for this:
train and engine service
Covered Service. Train or engine service refers to the actual assembling or operation of trains. Employees who perform this type of service commonly include locomotive engineers, firemen, conductors, trainmen, switchmen, switchtenders (unless their duties come under the provisions of section 3) and hostlers. With the passage of the 1976 amendments, both inside and outside hostlers are considered to be connected with the movement of trains. Previously, only outside hostlers were covered. Any other employee who is actually engaged in or connected with the movement of any train is also covered, regardless of his job title.

Limitations on Hours. The Act establishes two limitations on hours of service. First, no employee engaged in train or engine service may be required or permitted to work in excess of twelve consecutive hours. After working a full twelve consecutive hours, an employee must be given at least ten consecutive hours off duty before being permitted to return to work.

Second, no employee engaged in train or engine service may be required or permitted to continue on duty or go on duty unless he has had at least eight consecutive hours off duty within the preceding twenty-four hours. This latter limitation, when read in conjunction with the requirements with respect to computation of duty time (discussed below) results in several conclusions:

(1) When an employee's work tour is broken or interrupted by a valid period of interim release (4 hours or more at a designated terminal), he may return to duty for the balance of the total 12-hour work tour during a 24-hour period.

(2) After completing the 12 hours of broken duty, or at the end of the 24-hour period, whichever occurs first, the employee may not be required or permitted to continue on duty or to go on duty until he has had at least 8 consecutive hours off duty.

(3) The 24-hour period referred to in paragraphs 1 and 2 above shall begin upon the commencement of a work tour by the employee immediately after his having received a statutory off-duty period of 8 or 10 hours as appropriate.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 15, 2022, 01:37:02 PM
Is there any limitation on number of days in a row? Or how far out someone has to request a day off?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Herman Cain on September 15, 2022, 02:40:36 PM
Here is detail on the sick time issue

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/railroad-strike-negotiations-held-up-by-battle-over-sick-time-policies.html#:~:text=Generally%2C%20train%20crew%20employees%20have,days%2C%E2%80%9D%20BNSF%20told%20CNBC.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 15, 2022, 05:12:24 PM
Agreed. Obviously anyone can post what they want on social media.

There have been a few interviews of rail workers explaining the situation over the last couple days. I'll see if I can find any

Here's one: https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1570086413923942407?t=B9mgqYMBfn69UkxL097R7w&s=19
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 16, 2022, 02:19:45 PM
Whoa.....check-our FedEx stock price today. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 16, 2022, 02:23:26 PM
Fook 'em. Their service sucks major ass, hey?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on September 16, 2022, 02:31:40 PM
that was a $240/sh stock 6mos ago!!  thank God i got out in the $230's
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 08:54:23 AM
The Fed still has a lot of work ahead to get inflation under control. Unfortunately, a much lower stock and housing market might be the best option for them. The last three post stock market episodes saw record recoveries in short order, I do not think we will see similar rebounds once the market hits it's low point.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 22, 2022, 09:22:02 AM
The Fed still has a lot of work ahead to get inflation under control. Unfortunately, a much lower stock and housing market might be the best option for them. The last three post stock market episodes saw record recoveries in short order, I do not think we will see similar rebounds once the market hits it's low point.

I agree, the recovery will not be "in short order" this time ... although that's what most people think every time there is a big correction. In the moment, it's always horrible.

Still, over time, the market always goes up. That's why I'm a long-term investor. You probably are, too, Goose.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 22, 2022, 09:32:12 AM
Dude, still on da fence about the Turkey tourney? Wen kan expect a yay or nay, hey?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 09:46:23 AM
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Scoop Snoop on September 22, 2022, 10:06:23 AM
82

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.


Reality, AKA Arithmetic in this case, always wins in the end.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 22, 2022, 10:44:44 AM
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.

I think you're mostly right, Goose.

Among the fellow investors I speak to regularly, I'm one of the big cash-hoarders ... but I'm nowhere near 90%. It's probably a wise move on your part, and I hope it works out well for you.

I'm content with my large-ish cash position and a bunch of boring dividend stocks that will pay me to wait out this turbulence. I don't have any predictions on how deep this one's gonna go, or how long the pain will last, so we'll just see.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 22, 2022, 10:46:17 AM
Dude, still on da fence about the Turkey tourney? Wen kan expect a yay or nay, hey?

This is an odd obsession you've got, Doc. I did actually respond to your last statement about it in the Fort Myers Tourney thread. I know ... that's a real weird place to talk about the Fort Myers Tourney, nu?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Herman Cain on September 22, 2022, 11:25:58 AM
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.
Bear markets are tough to navigate because of Bear market rallies that happen. Inflation and related supply chain issues are still present . Even if the  Fed creates Demand Demand destruction with high rates , the underlying bearish economic scenario still persists .

My posture is mostly cash with only long term dividend payer holdings

If there are crown jewel type companies with good dividend histories that get extremely attractive, I may accumulate . However I only go into those investments with the idea that I would be happy holding these positions if the stock market closed for two years .
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 11:55:41 AM
Herman

That is my feelings on my dividend stocks. Since I am buying monthly, I am perfectly fine with whatever happens to the price during downturn. If these stocks go belly up, we have bigger problems than I think we do. This is only the second time I have been this much in cash, I went into cash on 2/13/2020 because I believed that covid was going to be a far bigger global event than what was being reported. That was 100% hunch based off of the situation in China. I am now in cash because I think there is structural damage to our economy and think things could possibly go really bad.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 22, 2022, 12:23:53 PM
Herman

That is my feelings on my dividend stocks. Since I am buying monthly, I am perfectly fine with whatever happens to the price during downturn. If these stocks go belly up, we have bigger problems than I think we do. This is only the second time I have been this much in cash, I went into cash on 2/13/2020 because I believed that covid was going to be a far bigger global event than what was being reported. That was 100% hunch based off of the situation in China. I am now in cash because I think there is structural damage to our economy and think things could possibly go really bad.

Please define "structural damage to our economy," Goose.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 01:56:42 PM
82

I believe there are always cracks/potholes in the economy, but I have never seen quite so many issues. IMO, we have national debt, supply chain exposure (not good for national security), inflation, labor shortage (which I believe ends up being much higher unemployment), too many people not prepared for economic slowdown and/or retirement, rising interest rates in a crazy overheated housing market, wage inflation, student debt, insane cost for apartment rent, commercial real estate defaults and the list goes on. To be honest, I am not sure we have smart enough leaders to allow the economy to navigate all of these issues without a lot of pain being felt.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 22, 2022, 05:13:57 PM
82

The last three stock market crashes, 2001, Great Recession/Housing Meltdown and Covid, the Fed spearheaded mind-boggling recoveries by QE and cheap money and that caused a large part of the problem we see today. IMO, the Fed and Uncle Sam worked in tandem to use every tool to avoid a very serious economic mess and basically kicked the can down the street. In their defense, several once in a lifetime events have occurred over the past 21 years and you would have needed a thousand stress test scenarios to have all three included in your planning.

In this effort to stem a long, deep recession, or worse, the Fed provided far too much money to far too many people and that created a perfect storm. This current situation may face far more difficult challenges than the three previous market crashes. Quite frankly, I believe that many Americans followed the Fed's lead and spent too much money and avoided reality.

That being said, for the past ten months I have been mainly in cash and over 90% cash the past four months. This might be one of the rare moments in time that cash is not trash. I will add, I do own some very solid dividend stocks that I have invested in for retirement and have continued to purchase shares on a monthly basis over the past year. I still believe in owning stocks and I want to have my money in the market, but this one scares me. I will add, that for over the past 35 years I was almost always 100% in the market and buying on margin very often over that time period.

I might end up being 100% wrong on feelings on our economy and the stock/housing market and I hope I am. I would gladly miss out on a quick 10-15% rebound over seeing good people lose hard earned money.
So you are saying you sold 90% of your equities? And took the cap gain hit?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 22, 2022, 05:43:12 PM
The Fed still has a lot of work ahead to get inflation under control. Unfortunately, a much lower stock and housing market might be the best option for them. The last three post stock market episodes saw record recoveries in short order, I do not think we will see similar rebounds once the market hits it's low point.

I still maintain there HAS to be a way to do this without punishing the poor and causing skyrocketing unemployment
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 05:58:35 PM
TSmith

The 90% is in my retirement plan. I have held onto my dividend stocks and continue to invest. That said, I did sell some non dividend stocks earlier this year and gladly pay cap gains taxes. I have never been afraid to sell a stock and take the tax hit.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Herman Cain on September 22, 2022, 06:20:36 PM
82

I believe there are always cracks/potholes in the economy, but I have never seen quite so many issues. IMO, we have national debt, supply chain exposure (not good for national security), inflation, labor shortage (which I believe ends up being much higher unemployment), too many people not prepared for economic slowdown and/or retirement, rising interest rates in a crazy overheated housing market, wage inflation, student debt, insane cost for apartment rent, commercial real estate defaults and the list goes on. To be honest, I am not sure we have smart enough leaders to allow the economy to navigate all of these issues without a lot of pain being felt.
Goose
Our business is leveraged to several different sectors of the economy. Consumer Packaged Goods,Food and Beverage  transportation and logistics , The Energy Sector,Industrial and commercial  Real Estate  and Finance . So we have a good laboratory for current economic events .

Our customers are close to the breaking point . At some point if they will not be able to keep pushing costs through to the end user , It will not take much to push some of them into bankruptcies .

We are taking a lot of reserves for bad debt now. My theory is take the medicine up front , allows us to survive for the long term.



 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 06:26:20 PM
jesmu

There are smart guys on here that I am sure could give better insight on how to avoid a very bad situation, but I think the door is closing on that happening. Of course I do not want the poor to suffer serious pain and they unfortunately normally do. My fear is for middle class to lower upper class folks because I believe they are a big part of our overall economy.

My fear is the velocity of money slowing by the middle 60% of society. I think inflation gets tamed but it will be after the damage has been done. I remember vividly talking with my Dad in 2008 and he predicted 8+% unemployment during the housing crisis and I think we are heading the wrong way on the employment front in the near future.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 06:34:44 PM
Herman

Our clients range in size from well funded start ups to publicly trading companies and I am seeing disturbing trends. These clients are across many segments of our economy and we are not industry or product specific and money flow is slowing quickly.

For my business I believe we are in a very strong position, provided our clients pay their bills. Our A/R is at record high and past due is at record high. Our biggest clients simply are paying extremely slowly and getting slower. Much of time is spent on chasing money from companies I believe may be struggling.

Would love your opinion, but I think banks are facing major write offs in the coming quarters. Thoughts?

Currently at our firm, we are watching expenditures more than ever. I can take some pain personally to navigate a storm at work and doing just that. I believe the short term pain is worth the long term opportunity.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 22, 2022, 07:49:29 PM
Goose,

I just read that Powell insinuated we will get to 2% interest by 2025.  That doesn't sound like inflation is transitory to me. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 22, 2022, 07:52:39 PM
Goose,

I just read that Powell insinuated we will get to 2% interest by 2025.  That doesn't sound like inflation is transitory to me.

It’s transitory
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 22, 2022, 07:54:23 PM
It’s transitory

I hope you're right
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 22, 2022, 08:05:31 PM
Muggs

It they tank the economy if could be at 2% a year from now. Aside from the positive folks on scoop, I do not know one person that is not worried about the economy and stock market. There are obviously various degrees of concern, but the concern is real.

Not to single Herman out, but I thought his last post was a very interesting perspective from someone I do not think is an alarmist.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 22, 2022, 09:31:12 PM
82

I believe there are always cracks/potholes in the economy, but I have never seen quite so many issues. IMO, we have national debt, supply chain exposure (not good for national security), inflation, labor shortage (which I believe ends up being much higher unemployment), too many people not prepared for economic slowdown and/or retirement, rising interest rates in a crazy overheated housing market, wage inflation, student debt, insane cost for apartment rent, commercial real estate defaults and the list goes on. To be honest, I am not sure we have smart enough leaders to allow the economy to navigate all of these issues without a lot of pain being felt.

Thanks for the answer, Goose. We agree about many, even most, of those challenges today. I do think there have been many times throughout history at which anybody could point to this, this, this and this and say we were in big trouble.

I mean, when I graduated from Marquette in 1982, we were in a deep recession, inflation was high, mortgage rates were 16% -- yes, 16 effen percent! -- national debt was high ... and as a fun bonus, there were no jobs. It seemed pretty dire then but we came out of it after a little time. Same with 1987 and 2001 and 2008 and 2020.

I am not naive or looking at this through rose-colored glasses. I am not, to use your term, a "positive folk." I think there will be pain ahead for millions and millions, and I hate that for our fellow Americans. Those hurt the most will be those who can least afford it, as usual.

But a year from now or 3 or 5 or 10, after the rich have gotten richer, the middle class has survived and the poor have pulled themselves up by the bootstraps, some Scoopers will be having a similar discussion about the NEXT looming economic crisis. Maybe it even will be you and me.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 22, 2022, 11:14:53 PM
So you are saying you sold 90% of your equities? And took the cap gain hit?

Taking profits and paying cap gains tax on a market that looks this vulnerable should never be viewed as “taking a hit”. Is watching profits turn to losses a win because you can sell and “save” on your taxes? Unless you’re on your deathbed with a big gain and you want your heirs to get a step up in the purchase price holding on (for tax purposes) to a stock you think has topped and is going south is stupid.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 23, 2022, 07:04:46 AM
Costcoxhad its earnings call after close yesterday. CEOs usually like to keep things positive at these things, even when times aren't swell, and Costco's did, too. But I thought Richard Galanti was pretty straightforward in discussing the challenges right now.

Here's Galanti when asked if he was seeing any "light at the end of the tunnel" on inflation:

Well, again, anecdotally, when we talked to the buyers, they’re starting to see a few examples, whether it’s something like outdoor, patio, furniture or barbecue grill where steel prices are coming down, and we’re reminded by Craig and Ron or the buyers reminded at the budget meeting when prices were going up, make sure you understand why they’re going up. Is it -- what piece of it is raw material costs? What piece of it is freight costs? And when these things come down, you better be on the phone with them calling them saying, when are going to get a reduction?

And so I think in part because of our limited selection -- our limited number of SKUs and a huge volume, I think our buyers know pretty darn well a lot of the cost components of these things. And that, I think, bodes well for us. But again, at the end of the day, we are seeing -- I think it is a little light at the end of the tunnel. Certainly, container rates have come down. Container shortages have improved. The port delays have improved, all that things go into it. And as raw material prices come down -- and FX generally helps you and hurts you. When we report a foreign company’s earnings in U.S. dollars, and the currency has gone down 10%, it’s 10% less earnings that we report. But at the same token, since we’re using U.S. dollars in a lot of things, not just in the U.S. to buy different supplies and raw materials from other places, that helps you a little bit.

And again, I think it’s -- could something happen tomorrow to change this? Sure. But at least we’re seeing the things going -- starting to go in the right direction. Hopefully, that bodes better for not just us, but everyone.


So he's not jumping up and down and saying everything's terrific, but he's not standing on a ledge, either. I've heard this from a few other CEOs, too -- things are still not great, and they expect some difficulties ahead, but many of them are seeing positive signs.

Again, I am not celebrating. But long-term, I'm hopeful. And I also know history. Things were beyond just a little rough during the Great Recession for several years, but Costco -- and the entire economy -- DID emerge from that and had a heck of a decade afterward.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 23, 2022, 08:05:17 AM
82

One thing I forgot to mention in my post on the current issues is the velocity of money. IMO it was one of the best ways to measure the economy and I believe the velocity has slowed in a big time way, and more importantly, in a very quick time frame. I can only speak on my own experiences, but I see our firms cashflow every day and incoming has stalled. To date, we have received under 70% of our expected incoming cash in the month of September. We will be higher by the end of the month, but nowhere near 100%.

As for your post on the long term, I do not disagree that things will be brighter down the road. We may differ on when down the road happens. I believe there is going to be significant damage inflicted to many people around the world and that is what causes me concern on how long things will take. I have no idea of the % of people ill prepared for a serious downturn, but my gut says it is far more than we think it is. We avoided two possible depressions IMO, the housing bubble mess and the start of the pandemic and it was 100% avoided because our government did everything in their power to avoid it.

IMO, it was avoided because they could throw everything to avoid it and they did so because they know how vulnerable overall society is to such an event. I do not think sending stimulus checks saved the day, but % interest rates and QE did. I truly believe they needed to save the day, but how many times can they do it?

Again, I hope my beliefs are completely off target and my quotes are used against me in a year or two, or sooner. That being said, I do not think underestimating what a real economic mess would look like is wise.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 23, 2022, 08:34:12 AM
Costcoxhad its earnings call after close yesterday. CEOs usually like to keep things positive at these things, even when times aren't swell, and Costco's did, too. But I thought Richard Galanti was pretty straightforward in discussing the challenges right now.

Here's Galanti when asked if he was seeing any "light at the end of the tunnel" on inflation:

Well, again, anecdotally, when we talked to the buyers, they’re starting to see a few examples, whether it’s something like outdoor, patio, furniture or barbecue grill where steel prices are coming down, and we’re reminded by Craig and Ron or the buyers reminded at the budget meeting when prices were going up, make sure you understand why they’re going up. Is it -- what piece of it is raw material costs? What piece of it is freight costs? And when these things come down, you better be on the phone with them calling them saying, when are going to get a reduction?

And so I think in part because of our limited selection -- our limited number of SKUs and a huge volume, I think our buyers know pretty darn well a lot of the cost components of these things. And that, I think, bodes well for us. But again, at the end of the day, we are seeing -- I think it is a little light at the end of the tunnel. Certainly, container rates have come down. Container shortages have improved. The port delays have improved, all that things go into it. And as raw material prices come down -- and FX generally helps you and hurts you. When we report a foreign company’s earnings in U.S. dollars, and the currency has gone down 10%, it’s 10% less earnings that we report. But at the same token, since we’re using U.S. dollars in a lot of things, not just in the U.S. to buy different supplies and raw materials from other places, that helps you a little bit.

And again, I think it’s -- could something happen tomorrow to change this? Sure. But at least we’re seeing the things going -- starting to go in the right direction. Hopefully, that bodes better for not just us, but everyone.


So he's not jumping up and down and saying everything's terrific, but he's not standing on a ledge, either. I've heard this from a few other CEOs, too -- things are still not great, and they expect some difficulties ahead, but many of them are seeing positive signs.

Again, I am not celebrating. But long-term, I'm hopeful. And I also know history. Things were beyond just a little rough during the Great Recession for several years, but Costco -- and the entire economy -- DID emerge from that and had a heck of a decade afterward.

MU82 - That's exactly what I posted here the first week of September.  Raw material prices have dropped significantly in the last 6 months.  Gas has dropped for 2+ months now.  Containers and transportation are way noticeably improved since the first of the year.  There are no delays and prices have dropped a hair.  I added that many companies still have high inventory of raw material that they bought at the higher price (because they had to, because of longer lead times which is also dropping) and this older inventory is getting used up and you can expect price decline as the next raw material purchase batch enters company inventory. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 23, 2022, 09:02:11 AM
82

One thing I forgot to mention in my post on the current issues is the velocity of money. IMO it was one of the best ways to measure the economy and I believe the velocity has slowed in a big time way, and more importantly, in a very quick time frame. I can only speak on my own experiences, but I see our firms cashflow every day and incoming has stalled. To date, we have received under 70% of our expected incoming cash in the month of September. We will be higher by the end of the month, but nowhere near 100%.

As for your post on the long term, I do not disagree that things will be brighter down the road. We may differ on when down the road happens. I believe there is going to be significant damage inflicted to many people around the world and that is what causes me concern on how long things will take. I have no idea of the % of people ill prepared for a serious downturn, but my gut says it is far more than we think it is. We avoided two possible depressions IMO, the housing bubble mess and the start of the pandemic and it was 100% avoided because our government did everything in their power to avoid it.

IMO, it was avoided because they could throw everything to avoid it and they did so because they know how vulnerable overall society is to such an event. I do not think sending stimulus checks saved the day, but % interest rates and QE did. I truly believe they needed to save the day, but how many times can they do it?

Again, I hope my beliefs are completely off target and my quotes are used against me in a year or two, or sooner. That being said, I do not think underestimating what a real economic mess would look like is wise.

Goose,

It's becoming pretty clear that the Fed cannot lower inflation alone with incremental interest rate increases.  Lowering medical costs and our deficit could eventually help, but in the grand scheme of things the amount is fractionsl and the impact won't  happen soon enough.  My biggest concern are energy costs which could be insane in some places during the winter months.  Most of Europe is a complete cluster fk.  It's rather discouraging to me thar we have 40 yr highs in inflation and our current solutions have exacerbated the problems.  Our entire supply/demand dynamic is completely off kilter. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on September 23, 2022, 09:29:35 AM
Full employment pushing up wages.   

Continued supply chain issues in China as well as a record breaking heat wave.

Corporate profits way up.

Chip shortage. 

Grocery prices up

Fuel prices down.

If the railroads strike, expect a huge spike.

All age cohorts are participating in the labor market at pre-pandemic levels except for the boomers, who took the COVID market ride and retired early. That's why the labor market is so constrained. The only way to get that cohort back into the workforce is to crush their 401k's. Hence, the market is down and the Fed will continue to tighten until the market pushes the boomers back in the pool. It is what it is but personally I'm holding off putting cash to work until that happens.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Herman Cain on September 23, 2022, 09:52:46 AM
Herman

Our clients range in size from well funded start ups to publicly trading companies and I am seeing disturbing trends. These clients are across many segments of our economy and we are not industry or product specific and money flow is slowing quickly.

For my business I believe we are in a very strong position, provided our clients pay their bills. Our A/R is at record high and past due is at record high. Our biggest clients simply are paying extremely slowly and getting slower. Much of time is spent on chasing money from companies I believe may be struggling.

Would love your opinion, but I think banks are facing major write offs in the coming quarters. Thoughts?

Currently at our firm, we are watching expenditures more than ever. I can take some pain personally to navigate a storm at work and doing just that. I believe the short term pain is worth the long term opportunity.
Goose
Early this year we took a conservative posture and amended our bank lines . We are a middle market company and my experience is when things go South credit gets restricted  so I wanted to get while the gettin was good so to speak. So we were able to get 5 year facilities in the low to mid 9 figures range .

Recently we were told by our banks we were lucky we chose that path . A number of banks barely passed their stress tests Also , all banks ended up taking major mark downs to their loan portfolio . So the process of credit restriction is happening .

It will be a while though before banks take actual loan losses for credit defaults . As most companies still have decent balance sheets that they built up during the easy money times .

If we get another energy price jolt things could get uglier
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 23, 2022, 10:12:09 AM
82

One thing I forgot to mention in my post on the current issues is the velocity of money. IMO it was one of the best ways to measure the economy and I believe the velocity has slowed in a big time way, and more importantly, in a very quick time frame. I can only speak on my own experiences, but I see our firms cashflow every day and incoming has stalled. To date, we have received under 70% of our expected incoming cash in the month of September. We will be higher by the end of the month, but nowhere near 100%.

As for your post on the long term, I do not disagree that things will be brighter down the road. We may differ on when down the road happens. I believe there is going to be significant damage inflicted to many people around the world and that is what causes me concern on how long things will take. I have no idea of the % of people ill prepared for a serious downturn, but my gut says it is far more than we think it is. We avoided two possible depressions IMO, the housing bubble mess and the start of the pandemic and it was 100% avoided because our government did everything in their power to avoid it.

IMO, it was avoided because they could throw everything to avoid it and they did so because they know how vulnerable overall society is to such an event. I do not think sending stimulus checks saved the day, but % interest rates and QE did. I truly believe they needed to save the day, but how many times can they do it?

Again, I hope my beliefs are completely off target and my quotes are used against me in a year or two, or sooner. That being said, I do not think underestimating what a real economic mess would look like is wise.

We don't differ on when down the road happens, because I have neither predicted nor suggested anything. I don't know. It could be a year, it could be 5, it could be longer. The one thing I have "predicted" is that eventually the economy will improve and take the stock market with it, or vice versa, because that has always happened. And we agree on that, too.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 23, 2022, 10:13:16 AM
MU82 - That's exactly what I posted here the first week of September.  Raw material prices have dropped significantly in the last 6 months.  Gas has dropped for 2+ months now.  Containers and transportation are way noticeably improved since the first of the year.  There are no delays and prices have dropped a hair.  I added that many companies still have high inventory of raw material that they bought at the higher price (because they had to, because of longer lead times which is also dropping) and this older inventory is getting used up and you can expect price decline as the next raw material purchase batch enters company inventory.

I remember that post of yours. Thanks for the update. There is still a long way to go, maybe years. I'm hopeful, but then again I'm generally an optimistic guy.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Merit Matters on September 23, 2022, 10:16:49 AM
People getting what they voted for, and they deserve it good and hard.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 23, 2022, 10:41:37 AM
Herman

Thank you for the reply. I very much respect your opinions and posts and value your business knowledge being shared on scoop.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 23, 2022, 11:24:29 AM
People getting what they voted for, and they deserve it good and hard.



Hope day cum too der census next tyme around, aina?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Merit Matters on September 23, 2022, 11:46:18 AM


Hope day cum too der census next tyme around, aina?
Fat chance. Every empire has fallen. We probably need a reset anyways.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 23, 2022, 11:55:24 AM
82

One thing I forgot to mention in my post on the current issues is the velocity of money. IMO it was one of the best ways to measure the economy and I believe the velocity has slowed in a big time way, and more importantly, in a very quick time frame. I can only speak on my own experiences, but I see our firms cashflow every day and incoming has stalled. To date, we have received under 70% of our expected incoming cash in the month of September. We will be higher by the end of the month, but nowhere near 100%.

As for your post on the long term, I do not disagree that things will be brighter down the road. We may differ on when down the road happens. I believe there is going to be significant damage inflicted to many people around the world and that is what causes me concern on how long things will take. I have no idea of the % of people ill prepared for a serious downturn, but my gut says it is far more than we think it is. We avoided two possible depressions IMO, the housing bubble mess and the start of the pandemic and it was 100% avoided because our government did everything in their power to avoid it.

IMO, it was avoided because they could throw everything to avoid it and they did so because they know how vulnerable overall society is to such an event. I do not think sending stimulus checks saved the day, but % interest rates and QE did. I truly believe they needed to save the day, but how many times can they do it?

Again, I hope my beliefs are completely off target and my quotes are used against me in a year or two, or sooner. That being said, I do not think underestimating what a real economic mess would look like is wise.

Stimmy checks 100% saved the day.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 23, 2022, 11:56:55 AM
All age cohorts are participating in the labor market at pre-pandemic levels except for the boomers, who took the COVID market ride and retired early. That's why the labor market is so constrained. The only way to get that cohort back into the workforce is to crush their 401k's. Hence, the market is down and the Fed will continue to tighten until the market pushes the boomers back in the pool. It is what it is but personally I'm holding off putting cash to work until that happens.

hehe yep
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 23, 2022, 11:57:59 AM
People getting what they voted for, and they deserve it good and hard.

Brain dead
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 23, 2022, 12:17:44 PM
Yule bee singin' a different toone wen bus service takes a dump, hey?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 23, 2022, 12:20:32 PM
The railroad situation is FAR from resolved.

Biden white house may have celebrated a bit before the finish line on this one.

The good news is that the media has moved on.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 23, 2022, 12:22:12 PM
People getting what they voted for, and they deserve it good and hard.

Based on this post, I'm assuming your position is that the Trump administration would have avoided the inflation we currently have.

If true, can you explain how they would have solved pandemic-related supply chain problems, corporate price gouging and economic impact of the Russian invasion?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 23, 2022, 12:22:36 PM
Fat chance. Every empire has fallen. We probably need a reset anyways.

The stupid is strong with this one.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 23, 2022, 12:34:41 PM
Stimmy checks 100% saved the day.


Most definitely. The third one was likely not needed, and the expanded child tax credit was a bit of an overkill, but the checks most definitely worked.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Scoop Snoop on September 23, 2022, 02:09:35 PM
Nm
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: PBRme on September 23, 2022, 02:55:45 PM

Most definitely. The third one was likely not needed, and the expanded child tax credit was a bit of an overkill, but the checks most definitely worked.

Maybe, But did my 20 yo college student need to get $1400 checks .... Nope

The targeting mechanism needs some refinement.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 23, 2022, 03:10:38 PM
Yule bee singin' a different toone wen bus service takes a dump, hey?

Unless you expect the state and local government to default, I think Imma be just fine, kin.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 23, 2022, 03:11:55 PM
Maybe, But did my 20 yo college student need to get $1400 checks .... Nope

The targeting mechanism needs some refinement.


I don't disagree with that.  But there is a reason that our recovery has been faster and stronger than other similar countries.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-us-economic-recovery-in-international-context
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 23, 2022, 03:14:36 PM
Maybe, But did my 20 yo college student need to get $1400 checks .... Nope

The targeting mechanism needs some refinement.

True, but getting the money out the door asap was essential.  Wasting time deciding who does and doesn't get it would have had a larger negative effect.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: PBRme on September 23, 2022, 03:20:51 PM
True, but getting the money out the door asap was essential.  Wasting time deciding who does and doesn't get it would have had a larger negative effect.

Agree to disagree.  Do not think it would have been wasting time and do not think it would have taken longer just would have taken smarter
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 23, 2022, 03:23:55 PM
Agree to disagree.  Do not think it would have been wasting time and do not think it would have taken longer just would have taken smarter


Easy thing to say 18 months later.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 23, 2022, 03:27:31 PM
I don't know if PBR is correct.    I do hope it is studied, learned from, and refined, if ever the need should arise again.   
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 23, 2022, 03:28:56 PM
Agree to disagree.  Do not think it would have been wasting time and do not think it would have taken longer just would have taken smarter

You don't think establishing an effective system to determine which of hundreds of millions of people should have received how much wouldn't have substantially slowed things down? I mean, it takes 3-4 months to get a simple building permit from the federal government, but they were going to pull that task off in, what ... a couple of weeks?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: PBRme on September 23, 2022, 03:42:55 PM
I said it then and how hard would it have been to exclude dependent children
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: lawdog77 on September 23, 2022, 04:16:46 PM
I said it then and how hard would it have been to exclude dependent children
Dependent children spend $$ as well as everyone else. -Signed my kids
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 23, 2022, 06:59:32 PM
I mean, it takes 3-4 months to get a simple building permit from the federal government

Great example of why the federal government should be the solution of last resort.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 23, 2022, 08:02:22 PM
Great example of why the federal government should be the solution of last resort.

Based on the private sector's sterling record of looking out for people's best interests.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 23, 2022, 10:47:12 PM
Based on the private sector's sterling record of looking out for people's best interests.

Where would your beloved public sector get the resources to spend 4 years pondering the issuance of a building permit if not from the private sector?

And who do you suppose does the best job of “looking out for people’s best interest” - the sector that has made it’s citizens the wealthiest in the history of mankind or the one who confiscates wealth and squanders it?



Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 24, 2022, 07:04:04 AM
Based on the private sector's sterling record of looking out for people's best interests.

Golden parachutes for thee, not for me
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 24, 2022, 07:14:23 AM
And who do you suppose does the best job of “looking out for people’s best interest” - the sector that has made it’s citizens the wealthiest in the history of mankind or the one who confiscates wealth and squanders it?

Another boomer that doesn't actually understand the function of government.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 24, 2022, 08:00:18 AM
Where would your beloved public sector get the resources to spend 4 years pondering the issuance of a building permit if not from the private sector?

Huh?

Quote
And who do you suppose does the best job of “looking out for people’s best interest” - the sector that has made it’s citizens the wealthiest in the history of mankind or the one who confiscates wealth and squanders it?

Only the economically illiterate or libertarians (kind of the same thiing) think like this. The reality is that the success of the private sector is wholly reliant on a stable, effective (not perfect, effective) public sector "squandering" wealth on things like infrastructure, research, education, military protection, law enforcement, fire protection, health care, foreign trade agreements, etc.
And God knows, no corporate entity has ever fed at the public sector trough to expand its operations, build a new facility or survive an economic crisis.
I mean, maybe Lenny could establish a successful, wealth generating business without a transportation network to deliver his goods and services, or an educated workforce, or piggybacking on decades of government-funded research, or his personal police force ... but I'm kinda skeptical.
The reason our private sector can thrive is the existence of our public sector. Pray tell, how many successful, multinational corporations have been created in Somalia and Yemen, where they don't have to worry about a squandering public sector?

Though it's cute you apparently believe squandering wealth is the exclusive province of the public sector. Spoken like someone who's never attended a sales conference.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 24, 2022, 08:14:04 AM
Huh?

Only the economically illiterate or libertarians (kind of the same thiing) think like this. The reality is that the success of the private sector is wholly reliant on a stable, effective (not perfect, effective) public sector "squandering" wealth on things like infrastructure, research, education, military protection, law enforcement, fire protection, health care, foreign trade agreements, etc.
And God knows, no corporate entity has ever fed at the public sector trough to expand its operations, build a new facility or survive an economic crisis.
I mean, maybe Lenny could establish a successful, wealth generating business without a transportation network to deliver his goods and services, or an educated workforce, or piggybacking on decades of government-funded research, or his personal police force ... but I'm kinda skeptical.
The reason our private sector can thrive is the existence of our public sector. Pray tell, how many successful, multinational corporations have been created in Somalia and Yemen, where they don't have to worry about a squandering public sector?

Though it's cute you apparently believe squandering wealth is the exclusive province of the public sector. Spoken like someone who's never attended a sales conference.

See: Erie Canal
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 24, 2022, 08:41:10 AM
I will by more Patagonia going forward.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 24, 2022, 09:18:50 AM
Another boomer that doesn't actually understand the function of government.


And doesn't have a great understanding of American economic history.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 24, 2022, 09:30:50 AM
Taking profits and paying cap gains tax on a market that looks this vulnerable should never be viewed as “taking a hit”. Is watching profits turn to losses a win because you can sell and “save” on your taxes? Unless you’re on your deathbed with a big gain and you want your heirs to get a step up in the purchase price holding on (for tax purposes) to a stock you think has topped and is going south is stupid.
Yes, I agree WRT individual stocks--taking profits is perfectly fine and reasonable, whether because you feel the stock had become overvalued, you want to reduce risk, you are in the deaccumulation phase, whatever. But you've mixed your argument between individual stocks and the overall market.

I mean, if you think you can be one of the infinitesimal number of people than can successfully time the market frequently enough to beat it, go for it. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 24, 2022, 09:39:15 AM
The FUD is strong in this thread.  The US economy - and its people - will be just fine.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 24, 2022, 09:55:20 AM
Yes.  There are always challenges.   There are always headwinds.  There is always room for improvement.   There are always lessons to be learned.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 24, 2022, 11:15:22 AM
The FUD is strong in this thread.  The US economy - and it's people - will be just fine.

If anything, I think the Fed is using way too heavy of a hammer. Inflation is a global phenomenon, the Fed is trying to beat it into submission in the U.S. without recognizing it's a global economy.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

We can't single-handedly fix global inflation, but the Fed can single-handedly destroy the U.S. economy with the blunt force trauma it seems intent on levying.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 24, 2022, 11:24:04 AM
We can't single-handedly fix global inflation, but the Fed can single-handedly destroy the U.S. economy with the blunt force trauma it seems intent on levying.

To the first point - agreed.

To the second - the fed is not going to "single-handedly destroy the U.S. economy".  There will be a bit of a recession, that's it.  And given we have only had a 2 month covid recession since 2009 - that's not necessarily bad or unexpected.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 24, 2022, 11:34:49 AM
rocky

How do you define a bit of a recession? What does that look like to you?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 24, 2022, 11:37:37 AM
How do you define a bit of a recession? What does that look like to you?

One that I'm not particularly concerned about.  I believe the "great recession" will still have been worse.  Heck, even the covid recession may have been worse.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 24, 2022, 11:40:22 AM
To the first point - agreed.

To the second - the fed is not going to "single-handedly destroy the U.S. economy".  There will be a bit of a recession, that's it.  And given we have only had a 2 month covid recession since 2009 - that's not necessarily bad or unexpected.

Perhaps "destroy" is too loose of a descriptor. "Send the economy into a far deeper, far longer recession" would more accurately describe what I think the risk is with the Fed's current trajectory.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 24, 2022, 11:40:47 AM
I'm guessing you did not think the "great recession" was anything to be overly concerned over at the time, fair assumption?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 24, 2022, 11:49:24 AM
I'm guessing you did not think the "great recession" was anything to be overly concerned over at the time, fair assumption?

I was a bit concerned then.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=10050.msg89094#msg89094
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 24, 2022, 12:27:08 PM
Rocky

I wish the stock market was the only thing that mattered in an economic downturn. I believe close to over nine million people lost their jobs and over three million lost their homes. My numbers could be slightly off, but I believe unemployment topped at near 10%.

It is somewhat ironic that many on here talk about white privilege or entitlement or boomers being selfish and you highlight a quote about the stock market from almost a decade and half ago. I was far more concerned about the unemployed, under employed and people struggling to keep their homes than I was the closing number on the S&P during the “Great Recession”.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 24, 2022, 01:26:38 PM
Regardless of who is in charge or who instituted near term policies, I really hate viewing the economy or stock market as "its fine, it will comeback, it always does" when facing challenges or headwinds.  It seems borderline Pollyanna-ish to me.

Nobody reasonable is saying "This is the end of the US economy" or "1930s here we come".  But when you look at red flags that are causing the impending recession, that people were calling out in real time as an issue going back awhile, as "oh things happen, we'll survive", its totally not seeing the forest for the trees.  I see people/business that get totally mangled in recessions, outside of their own control or ability to hedge against it, that would be beyond pissed by excusing it away as simply the natural course of things.

The Fed was playing fast and loose in a way that concerned A LOT of people going back to 2020 and now are in danger of potentially oversteering and over correcting.  And the response is "well this is FUD, the US economy comes back, it always does.  We will learn from this"...which ironically doesn't feel like learning from mistakes by glossing over the mistakes and the consequences.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 24, 2022, 01:35:33 PM
Wags

Great post and spot on.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 24, 2022, 03:49:25 PM
I wish the stock market was the only thing that mattered in an economic downturn. I believe close to over nine million people lost their jobs and over three million lost their homes. My numbers could be slightly off, but I believe unemployment topped at near 10%.

It is somewhat ironic that many on here talk about white privilege or entitlement or boomers being selfish and you highlight a quote about the stock market from almost a decade and half ago. I was far more concerned about the unemployed, under employed and people struggling to keep their homes than I was the closing number on the S&P during the “Great Recession”.

That's very humanitarian of you.   But you merely asked if I was concerned, and I found an old post to show that my position then was similar to yours now (thought the market was going to tank and held mostly cash).

And the response is "well this is FUD, the US economy comes back, it always does. 

I'll respond to this since I threw out the FUD remark.  I don't think it's FUD to wonder if things are gonna get a bit rougher than they have been for a while.  But I literally saw a headline today (which pretty much echoes some of the FUD here) "How to survive the worst bear market of all time" - lol.  That's FUD.  It also isn't Pollyanna to think after the dip - that the US economy will rebound - because it will!  Nobody knows exactly how this will all play out, but there's no proof yet that it's going to be the worse ever recession, or even that bad.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: muwarrior69 on September 24, 2022, 03:55:53 PM
I am 75 and probably will not see it in my lifetime, but the one thing that concerns me is what happens when "the global economy" no longer sees the dollar as the fiat currency that it is today.

It is no secret that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa want to move away from the dollar. Is it only a matter of time?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 24, 2022, 04:11:47 PM
Is FUD akin to COLE or 'mope'?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Merit Matters on September 24, 2022, 05:29:05 PM
Rocky

I wish the stock market was the only thing that mattered in an economic downturn. I believe close to over nine million people lost their jobs and over three million lost their homes. My numbers could be slightly off, but I believe unemployment topped at near 10%.

It is somewhat ironic that many on here talk about white privilege or entitlement or boomers being selfish and you highlight a quote about the stock market from almost a decade and half ago. I was far more concerned about the unemployed, under employed and people struggling to keep their homes than I was the closing number on the S&P during the “Great Recession”.
Spot on Mr. Goose. Common folk talk about inflation and parrot the mainstream talking points. People who understand the economy talk about stagflation. They are not the same type of people.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on September 24, 2022, 06:20:07 PM
sad thing is, this was all too predictable and could have been avoided if all these "experts" we have in charge would get out of the way of themselves.   they were told over a year ago by some experts, but they were ignored for all the wrong reasons.  not one damn thing has gone right over the past 22 months.  when you try to cover one mistake with another, this is what we get.  we have the know-how to get things right if we really want to, but sometimes one has to wonder...was this purposeful??

   if it was, more than shame on them...they are ruining lots of people's lives
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 24, 2022, 06:20:56 PM
Rocky

Of course there is no certainty in predicting the future of the economy, but you are certain that things will recover. I believe that however this downturn develops that better days will eventually materialize, but I would not be arrogant enough to say that that bad things might not be coming our way.

I am far from an expert on the Great Depression, but I did have the privilege of having my Dad who was born in 1921 and lived during that time in history. There have been many warning signs that a serious downturn could occur and I believe we have dodged the bullet twice in the past fifteen years.

Again, I have little interest in how the stock market plays out, aside from worrying about loved ones that are concerned. My focus is on being positive, being prepared and not arrogantly ignoring what the future may look like.

My noting I was out of the market was a sidebar to what my beliefs are and wish I had not stated it. 100% of my thoughts and efforts are focused on growing a business in potentially rough sledding ahead.

It is funny but in the Great Recession I was buying gold and silver and I learned exactly how foolish of a game plan that was for long term success. Today, I am working for free and using that money to invest in our business.

I can only speak for myself, but I would rather be over prepared than caught with my pants down. I am not a guy that wants to have great sacrifices in my life, but this time I think it wise to be ahead of the curve.



Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 24, 2022, 06:24:48 PM
sad thing is, this was all too predictable and could have been avoided if all these "experts" we have in charge would get out of the way of themselves.   they were told over a year ago by some experts, but they were ignored for all the wrong reasons.  not one damn thing has gone right over the past 22 months.  when you try to cover one mistake with another, this is what we get.  we have the know-how to get things right if we really want to, but sometimes one has to wonder...was this purposeful??

   if it was, more than shame on them...they are ruining lots of people's lives

6 of 10 for predicting the all too predictable on Scoop. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 24, 2022, 06:43:23 PM
My focus is on being positive, being prepared and not arrogantly ignoring what the future may look like.
[snip]

but I would rather be over prepared than caught with my pants down. I am not a guy that wants to have great sacrifices in my life, but this time I think it wise to be ahead of the curve.

I'm aware you didn't directly call me arrogant, but my comments are only an acknowledgement that I cannot affect the economy much. I can only take care of myself, and those important to me. And in that case, I'm not worried.

As to over prepared, I know we don't know much about each other. But I can assure you I'm always over prepared.  Those that can be, should always be over prepared for the unexpected, regardless of market or social or political ideologies.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 24, 2022, 07:08:47 PM
Rocky

No, I was not stating you were arrogant and my comment was a general statement on how I feel many look at the economy.

I applaud you for being over prepared because I think many are woefully ill prepared for everyday emergencies, let alone an economic downturn. That being said, I am preparing for something more than a mild recession and one that could rival the Great Recession or worse.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 24, 2022, 11:49:06 PM
I applaud you for being over prepared because I think many are woefully ill prepared for everyday emergencies, let alone an economic downturn. That being said, I am preparing for something more than a mild recession and one that could rival the Great Recession or worse.

No need to applaud goose. You underestimate the US population. If this goes over 15 years I'm worried!
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on September 25, 2022, 12:13:15 AM
6 of 10 for predicting the all too predictable on Scoop.

no, the all too predictable is you seeming to have the need to respond in some stupid way to every one of my posts with your dumb rating thing.  you still wet the bed?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on September 25, 2022, 12:32:51 AM
no, the all too predictable is you seeming to have the need to respond in some stupid way to every one of my posts with your dumb rating thing.  you still wet the bed?

You mad bro?  Rico ain't dumb.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 25, 2022, 07:12:47 AM
sad thing is, this was all too predictable and could have been avoided if all these "experts" we have in charge would get out of the way of themselves.   they were told over a year ago by some experts, but they were ignored for all the wrong reasons.  not one damn thing has gone right over the past 22 months.  when you try to cover one mistake with another, this is what we get.  we have the know-how to get things right if we really want to, but sometimes one has to wonder...was this purposeful??

   if it was, more than shame on them...they are ruining lots of people's lives


Not one thing has gone right the last 22 months?  We have about as many people working, at a similar unemployment rate, as before the pandemic. 

And what would be "purposeful?" Inflation? Why?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 25, 2022, 07:41:09 AM

Not one thing has gone right the last 22 months?  We have about as many people working, at a similar unemployment rate, as before the pandemic. 

And what would be "purposeful?" Inflation? Why?
It's just the latest example of Qroqqet vomiting up whatever Faux News' relentlessly hammered alternative reality happens to be.

In their world, there is no infrastructure law, there is no CHIPS Act, there is no American Rescue Plan, no new gun legislation, no Inflation Reduction Act, no PACT burn pits act, no discharged student loans, and no reduction in Medicare drug costs. In their world, there isn't 3.5% unemployment, there hasn't been almost 10 million jobs created, there has been no rebuilding of NATO and Western alliances, al-Zawahiri isn't dead, and Ukraine winning the war against Ukraine thanks to our intervention is actually a bad thing.

So if you ignore all that, then indeed nothing has gone right and everything is terrible. That's the messaging he and millions like him consume non-stop. Because Hunter Biden's laptop and scary brown people.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 25, 2022, 08:09:53 AM
It's just the latest example of Qroqqet vomiting up whatever Faux News' relentlessly hammered alternative reality happens to be.

In their world, there is no infrastructure law, there is no CHIPS Act, there is no American Rescue Plan, no new gun legislation, no Inflation Reduction Act, no PACT burn pits act, no discharged student loans, and no reduction in Medicare drug costs. In their world, there isn't 3.5% unemployment, there hasn't been almost 10 million jobs created, there has been no rebuilding of NATO and Western alliances, al-Zawahiri isn't dead, and Ukraine winning the war against Ukraine thanks to our intervention is actually a bad thing.

So if you ignore all that, then indeed nothing has gone right and everything is terrible. That's the messaging he and millions like him consume non-stop. Because Hunter Biden's laptop and scary brown people.

Amen.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 25, 2022, 08:16:36 AM
no, the all too predictable is you seeming to have the need to respond in some stupid way to every one of my posts with your dumb rating thing.  you still wet the bed?

4 out of 10.  Which one of these is you?

https://twitter.com/dburghart/status/1573387430941831168?s=46&t=fvjK2MfJybEIwwhBegoMaA
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 25, 2022, 08:24:49 AM
4 out of 10.  Which one of these is you?

https://twitter.com/dburghart/status/1573387430941831168?s=46&t=fvjK2MfJybEIwwhBegoMaA

Meal Team 6
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 25, 2022, 08:51:11 AM
Regardless of who is in charge or who instituted near term policies, I really hate viewing the economy or stock market as "its fine, it will comeback, it always does" when facing challenges or headwinds.  It seems borderline Pollyanna-ish to me.

Nobody reasonable is saying "This is the end of the US economy" or "1930s here we come".  But when you look at red flags that are causing the impending recession, that people were calling out in real time as an issue going back awhile, as "oh things happen, we'll survive", its totally not seeing the forest for the trees.  I see people/business that get totally mangled in recessions, outside of their own control or ability to hedge against it, that would be beyond pissed by excusing it away as simply the natural course of things.

The Fed was playing fast and loose in a way that concerned A LOT of people going back to 2020 and now are in danger of potentially oversteering and over correcting.  And the response is "well this is FUD, the US economy comes back, it always does.  We will learn from this"...which ironically doesn't feel like learning from mistakes by glossing over the mistakes and the consequences.

You're right, nobody reasonable is saying, "This is the end of the US economy." Also, nobody reasonable is saying, "Everything's wonderful; absolutely nothing to see here."

Because we know through history and common sense that it will be somewhere between those two extremes.

There are significant challenges now that have been discussed ad nauseum already. The Fed's handling hasn't been great. There are things that could have been done better or differently, and I'm not talking about only over the last 2 or 6 years. But looking forward, I am optimistic that the economy will recover; I'm also optimistic that the stock market will hit new highs in a year or 2 or 4.

Nevertheless, my family is prepared for an extended down period, should that be the case ... because, as rocky said, being "over-prepared" is just smart. I hate that there are those who will suffer because they don't have the means to over-prepare; for those of us who don't have a say on policy -- which I think is all of us -- that's where volunteering and charity and being good citizens come in.

I happen to think that viewpoint is not "borderline Pollyanna-ish," but others are free to disagree.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 25, 2022, 03:56:01 PM
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says Jerome Powell is making one of the biggest policy mistakes in the Fed's 110-year history, and it could lead to a major recession
Matthew Fox Sep 23, 2022, 3:18 PM

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-siegel-fed-making-same-mistake-interest-rates-inflation-recession-2022-9?amp
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 25, 2022, 04:26:24 PM
I agree with his take re both 20/21 and now
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on September 25, 2022, 04:47:20 PM
It's just the latest example of Qroqqet vomiting up whatever Faux News' relentlessly hammered alternative reality happens to be.

In their world, there is no infrastructure law, there is no CHIPS Act, there is no American Rescue Plan, no new gun legislation, no Inflation Reduction Act, no PACT burn pits act, no discharged student loans, and no reduction in Medicare drug costs. In their world, there isn't 3.5% unemployment, there hasn't been almost 10 million jobs created, there has been no rebuilding of NATO and Western alliances, al-Zawahiri isn't dead, and Ukraine winning the war against Ukraine thanks to our intervention is actually a bad thing.

So if you ignore all that, then indeed nothing has gone right and everything is terrible. That's the messaging he and millions like him consume non-stop. Because Hunter Biden's laptop and scary brown people.


  sounds kinda political to me, ey rock?  and racist-classic.  so imbecilic to bring either of these into conversation, but you got your peeps all mindlessly nodding in agreement-good job.  turn this around and you guys would be bleeding thru your eye balls.  the "q" thing is cute too and political

  people have lost over $4k over the last 22 mos. year over year.  their hourly wages/salaries are not keeping up with inflation.  for those of you in rio linda, that means losing money.  forces them to put things back on credit cards at interest rates out of this world. 

if you believe the 10 million jobs thingy, go do a real check.  even the fact checkers which lean heavily toward your team have trouble clarifying that whopper, but fox news is the real propagandist?  you are sadly mistaken.

btw, that silly laptop has/had serious national security implications not to mention some big time honesty implications from the "big guy", some really bad porn and how(NOT TO) wean oneself off drugs...but thank you for asking
   
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on September 25, 2022, 04:59:52 PM

  sounds kinda political to me, ey rock?  and racist-classic.  so imbecilic to bring either of these into conversation, but you got your peeps all mindlessly nodding in agreement-good job.  turn this around and you guys would be bleeding thru your eye balls.  the "q" thing is cute too and political

  people have lost over $4k over the last 22 mos. year over year.  their hourly wages/salaries are not keeping up with inflation.  for those of you in rio linda, that means losing money.  forces them to put things back on credit cards at interest rates out of this world. 

if you believe the 10 million jobs thingy, go do a real check.  even the fact checkers which lean heavily toward your team have trouble clarifying that whopper, but fox news is the real propagandist?  you are sadly mistaken.

btw, that silly laptop has/had serious national security implications not to mention some big time honesty implications from the "big guy", some really bad porn and how(NOT TO) wean oneself off drugs...but thank you for asking
   

BLS says you’re wrong about jobs. 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Pretty sure you don’t care much about national security.

Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 25, 2022, 05:11:57 PM

  sounds kinda political to me, ey rock?  and racist-classic.  so imbecilic to bring either of these into conversation, but you got your peeps all mindlessly nodding in agreement-good job.  turn this around and you guys would be bleeding thru your eye balls.  the "q" thing is cute too and political

  people have lost over $4k over the last 22 mos. year over year.  their hourly wages/salaries are not keeping up with inflation.  for those of you in rio linda, that means losing money.  forces them to put things back on credit cards at interest rates out of this world. 

if you believe the 10 million jobs thingy, go do a real check.  even the fact checkers which lean heavily toward your team have trouble clarifying that whopper, but fox news is the real propagandist?  you are sadly mistaken.

btw, that silly laptop has/had serious national security implications not to mention some big time honesty implications from the "big guy", some really bad porn and how(NOT TO) wean oneself off drugs...but thank you for asking
 

So, regurgitating a Rush Limbaugh phrase, denying basic reality, ignoring all new legislation, and...Hunter Biden's laptop.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 25, 2022, 05:32:19 PM

  sounds kinda political to me, ey rock?  and racist-classic.  so imbecilic to bring either of these into conversation, but you got your peeps all mindlessly nodding in agreement-good job.  turn this around and you guys would be bleeding thru your eye balls.  the "q" thing is cute too and political

  people have lost over $4k over the last 22 mos. year over year.  their hourly wages/salaries are not keeping up with inflation.  for those of you in rio linda, that means losing money.  forces them to put things back on credit cards at interest rates out of this world. 

if you believe the 10 million jobs thingy, go do a real check.  even the fact checkers which lean heavily toward your team have trouble clarifying that whopper, but fox news is the real propagandist?  you are sadly mistaken.

btw, that silly laptop has/had serious national security implications not to mention some big time honesty implications from the "big guy", some really bad porn and how(NOT TO) wean oneself off drugs...but thank you for asking
 

Great work.  10 out of 10.  You played the victim brilliantly and hit all the talking points.  A Classic post for the dental school!
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Reincarnated on September 25, 2022, 07:15:30 PM

  sounds kinda political to me, ey rock?  and racist-classic.  so imbecilic to bring either of these into conversation, but you got your peeps all mindlessly nodding in agreement-good job.  turn this around and you guys would be bleeding thru your eye balls.  the "q" thing is cute too and political

  people have lost over $4k over the last 22 mos. year over year.  their hourly wages/salaries are not keeping up with inflation.  for those of you in rio linda, that means losing money.  forces them to put things back on credit cards at interest rates out of this world. 

if you believe the 10 million jobs thingy, go do a real check.  even the fact checkers which lean heavily toward your team have trouble clarifying that whopper, but fox news is the real propagandist?  you are sadly mistaken.

btw, that silly laptop has/had serious national security implications not to mention some big time honesty implications from the "big guy", some really bad porn and how(NOT TO) wean oneself off drugs...but thank you for asking
 
No point in arguing Rocket. Rocky will just ban you soon. The mods are the kind of people that ban things they disagree with but allow Rico to openly and verbatim call for the assassination of a U.S. President and members of the Supreme Court of the United States without any consequence. He did it on this board. You know it and so does he. Honestly, he’s probably one of the mods’ burner accounts. Good luck.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Frenns Liquor Depot on September 25, 2022, 07:18:57 PM
(https://c.tenor.com/t6H92NjX7kcAAAAM/crying-sad.gif)
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 25, 2022, 07:25:42 PM
No point in arguing Rocket. Rocky will just ban you soon. The mods are the kind of people that ban things they disagree with but allow Rico to openly and verbatim call for the assassination of a U.S. President and members of the Supreme Court of the United States without any consequence. He did it on this board. You know it and so does he. Honestly, he’s probably one of the mods’ burner accounts. Good luck.
Heya Merit
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 25, 2022, 07:32:39 PM
No point in arguing Rocket. Rocky will just ban you soon. The mods are the kind of people that ban things they disagree with but allow Rico to openly and verbatim call for the assassination of a U.S. President and members of the Supreme Court of the United States without any consequence. He did it on this board. You know it and so does he. Honestly, he’s probably one of the mods’ burner accounts. Good luck.

The irony of a burner calling out another burner is (chefs kiss)
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on September 25, 2022, 08:01:42 PM
No point in arguing Rocket. Rocky will just ban you soon. The mods are the kind of people that ban things they disagree with but allow Rico to openly and verbatim call for the assassination of a U.S. President and members of the Supreme Court of the United States without any consequence. He did it on this board. You know it and so does he. Honestly, he’s probably one of the mods’ burner accounts. Good luck.

It's Rico's "shtick", so it's fine.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 25, 2022, 09:15:03 PM
How's that new board coming along?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 26, 2022, 05:25:31 AM
How's that new board coming along?

I can’t wait any longer for it.  Maybe I’ll write a letter to get things going
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on September 26, 2022, 03:39:00 PM
National Activity Index was neutral, still not in recession. Production slips negative.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-unchanged-august-2022-09-26/
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 26, 2022, 03:56:17 PM
I'm no expert but I'm wondering how mortgage rates will impact the economy moving forward?  I know I'm not moving anytime soon with my current rate and I would imagine a lot of people feel the same way.   What do the Scoop experts think about the housing market issues?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 26, 2022, 04:01:29 PM
Discussed in another thread.   
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 26, 2022, 05:23:28 PM
Anyone hearing first hand accounts about crazy power/heating costs in Europe?  I got off a call with a colleague in Belgium who is literally moving to Dubai before the end of the year because cost spikes are untenable.

His cousin owns a bakery outside of Antwerp.  Monthly costs to run their ovens ran around 1200 Euros.  That jumped to 1800 and then 2500 this year.  They've been notified the locked in costs for 2023 will be around 27000 Euros...monthly.  They're likely going to close.

His family's jewelry shop/his office is in a small market style shopping centre.  Monthly costs to heat the centre, split among tenants, was around 1800 Euros.  That leapt to 15000 euros the back half of 2022 and the quoted rate for 2023 is NINETY THOUSAND EUROS.  90,000.

His nextdoor flat mate's mother is a retired pensioner.  Her monthly electric/gas combined is 70 Euros a month.  She was quoted as 900 Euros a month for 2023.  The government will subsidize anything over that, but not below 900.

He's flying to Dubai next month to do due diligence for business space and then a few weeks later to find a house/apartment for the family.  Its obviously been brewing for a few months, but crazy that they survived COVID only for this to happy.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: panda on September 26, 2022, 06:12:46 PM
Anyone hearing first hand accounts about crazy power/heating costs in Europe?  I got off a call with a colleague in Belgium who is literally moving to Dubai before the end of the year because cost spikes are untenable.

His cousin owns a bakery outside of Antwerp.  Monthly costs to run their ovens ran around 1200 Euros.  That jumped to 1800 and then 2500 this year.  They've been notified the locked in costs for 2023 will be around 27000 Euros...monthly.  They're likely going to close.

His family's jewelry shop/his office is in a small market style shopping centre.  Monthly costs to heat the centre, split among tenants, was around 1800 Euros.  That leapt to 15000 euros the back half of 2022 and the quoted rate for 2023 is NINETY THOUSAND EUROS.  90,000.

His nextdoor flat mate's mother is a retired pensioner.  Her monthly electric/gas combined is 70 Euros a month.  She was quoted as 900 Euros a month for 2023.  The government will subsidize anything over that, but not below 900.

He's flying to Dubai next month to do due diligence for business space and then a few weeks later to find a house/apartment for the family.  Its obviously been brewing for a few months, but crazy that they survived COVID only for this to happy.

Yes England is in horrible shape. Even worse after brexit making it more difficult to work with foreign sources.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Billy Hoyle on September 27, 2022, 04:51:52 PM
Anyone hearing first hand accounts about crazy power/heating costs in Europe?  I got off a call with a colleague in Belgium who is literally moving to Dubai before the end of the year because cost spikes are untenable.

His cousin owns a bakery outside of Antwerp.  Monthly costs to run their ovens ran around 1200 Euros.  That jumped to 1800 and then 2500 this year.  They've been notified the locked in costs for 2023 will be around 27000 Euros...monthly.  They're likely going to close.

His family's jewelry shop/his office is in a small market style shopping centre.  Monthly costs to heat the centre, split among tenants, was around 1800 Euros.  That leapt to 15000 euros the back half of 2022 and the quoted rate for 2023 is NINETY THOUSAND EUROS.  90,000.

His nextdoor flat mate's mother is a retired pensioner.  Her monthly electric/gas combined is 70 Euros a month.  She was quoted as 900 Euros a month for 2023.  The government will subsidize anything over that, but not below 900.

He's flying to Dubai next month to do due diligence for business space and then a few weeks later to find a house/apartment for the family.  Its obviously been brewing for a few months, but crazy that they survived COVID only for this to happy.

That was a major factor in the Italy elections. Electricity prices are fluctuating based upon time of day. Businesses are opening up at 4am to avoid the surge pricing in the afternoon. They've been as high as over 700 Euros per megawatt hour in Italy and it is likely only going to get worse. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62891018

I don't know about you all back in the Midwest, but we've seen a big jump in gas prices over the last two days. Regular at the Arco and Chevron stations I drive past on the way to the office are up 60 cents/gallon since last Thursday.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: forgetful on September 27, 2022, 05:44:40 PM
I don't know about you all back in the Midwest, but we've seen a big jump in gas prices over the last two days. Regular at the Arco and Chevron stations I drive past on the way to the office are up 60 cents/gallon since last Thursday.

Not in the Midwest, but I actually noticed today that prices in my area dropped 30 cents/gallon since around the same time.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 27, 2022, 06:02:20 PM
That was a major factor in the Italy elections. Electricity prices are fluctuating based upon time of day. Businesses are opening up at 4am to avoid the surge pricing in the afternoon. They've been as high as over 700 Euros per megawatt hour in Italy and it is likely only going to get worse. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62891018

I don't know about you all back in the Midwest, but we've seen a big jump in gas prices over the last two days. Regular at the Arco and Chevron stations I drive past on the way to the office are up 60 cents/gallon since last Thursday.

Gas in the Chicago area is up about 20 cents since last week, but down about 20 cents from last month.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: ZiggysFryBoy on September 27, 2022, 06:10:11 PM
A refinery fire near Dayton has cause the prices in the midwest to increase.  F Dayton.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Billy Hoyle on September 27, 2022, 06:29:52 PM
Gas in the Chicago area is up about 20 cents since last week, but down about 20 cents from last month.

our state average is back above $5/gallon now.

up another 10 cents overnight. $5.19, and that's one of the cheaper stations in the area.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on September 27, 2022, 07:04:45 PM
Not here in Connecticut.  Costco has the first prices under $3 for the first time in forever this week.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 27, 2022, 10:12:15 PM
That was a major factor in the Italy elections. Electricity prices are fluctuating based upon time of day. Businesses are opening up at 4am to avoid the surge pricing in the afternoon. They've been as high as over 700 Euros per megawatt hour in Italy and it is likely only going to get worse. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62891018

I don't know about you all back in the Midwest, but we've seen a big jump in gas prices over the last two days. Regular at the Arco and Chevron stations I drive past on the way to the office are up 60 cents/gallon since last Thursday.

Gas is pretty cheap in the Carolinas.

But yeah, if you want the price of electricity to go down, elect a fascist! I mean, you’ve never heard of people in Hitler’s Germany or Mussolini’s Italy complaining about the price of electricity, have you?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Retire0 on September 27, 2022, 10:33:37 PM
A refinery fire near Dayton has cause the prices in the midwest to increase.  F Dayton.

ABD
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 28, 2022, 01:54:53 PM
Huh.

The CEO of Iron Mountain Inc. told Wall Street analysts at a September 20 investor event that the high levels of inflation of the past several years had helped the company increase its margins — and that for that reason he had long been “doing my inflation dance praying for inflation.”
The comment is an unusually candid admission of a dirty secret in the business world: corporations use inflation as a pretext to hike prices. “Corporations are using those increasing costs – of materials, components and labor – as excuses to increase their prices even higher, resulting in bigger profits,” Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary under Clinton, recently argued. Corporate profits are now at their highest level since 1950.


https://theintercept.com/2022/09/28/inflation-prices-investors-iron-mountain/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=theintercept&utm_source=twitter
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Retire0 on September 28, 2022, 02:01:38 PM
Huh.

The CEO of Iron Mountain Inc. told Wall Street analysts at a September 20 investor event that the high levels of inflation of the past several years had helped the company increase its margins — and that for that reason he had long been “doing my inflation dance praying for inflation.”
The comment is an unusually candid admission of a dirty secret in the business world: corporations use inflation as a pretext to hike prices. “Corporations are using those increasing costs – of materials, components and labor – as excuses to increase their prices even higher, resulting in bigger profits,” Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary under Clinton, recently argued. Corporate profits are now at their highest level since 1950.


https://theintercept.com/2022/09/28/inflation-prices-investors-iron-mountain/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=theintercept&utm_source=twitter

Ha, my monthly shredding pick-up went up $18.XX 7-8 months ago, thanks Iron Mountain.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 28, 2022, 02:04:59 PM
It's dirty.  But it is only a secret if you are not paying attention.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 28, 2022, 03:46:43 PM
Huh.

The CEO of Iron Mountain Inc. told Wall Street analysts at a September 20 investor event that the high levels of inflation of the past several years had helped the company increase its margins — and that for that reason he had long been “doing my inflation dance praying for inflation.”
The comment is an unusually candid admission of a dirty secret in the business world: corporations use inflation as a pretext to hike prices. “Corporations are using those increasing costs – of materials, components and labor – as excuses to increase their prices even higher, resulting in bigger profits,” Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary under Clinton, recently argued. Corporate profits are now at their highest level since 1950.


https://theintercept.com/2022/09/28/inflation-prices-investors-iron-mountain/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=theintercept&utm_source=twitter

Not new

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1476310104379166725?t=g4BTMG6M3KHumqQizn8_9w&s=19

Unfortunately, some believe inflation is due to stimulus checks.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 28, 2022, 05:20:56 PM

  sounds kinda political to me, ey rock?  and racist-classic.  so imbecilic to bring either of these into conversation, but you got your peeps all mindlessly nodding in agreement-good job.  turn this around and you guys would be bleeding thru your eye balls.  the "q" thing is cute too and political

  people have lost over $4k over the last 22 mos. year over year.  their hourly wages/salaries are not keeping up with inflation.  for those of you in rio linda, that means losing money.  forces them to put things back on credit cards at interest rates out of this world. 

if you believe the 10 million jobs thingy, go do a real check.  even the fact checkers which lean heavily toward your team have trouble clarifying that whopper, but fox news is the real propagandist?  you are sadly mistaken.

btw, that silly laptop has/had serious national security implications not to mention some big time honesty implications from the "big guy", some really bad porn and how(NOT TO) wean oneself off drugs...but thank you for asking
 

Someone needs to take away your TV and laptop.  Your mental health decline is depressing to watching in real time.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 28, 2022, 05:25:07 PM
A refinery fire near Dayton has cause the prices in the midwest to increase.  F Dayton.

YEP
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on September 28, 2022, 05:27:53 PM


The CEO of Iron Mountain Inc. told Wall Street analysts at a September 20 investor event that the high levels of inflation of the past several years

Inflation rates have been high for the “last several years”?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Dickthedribbler on September 28, 2022, 07:48:22 PM
"Jackie, are you here?? Where's Jackie??"
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on September 28, 2022, 08:33:57 PM
I imagine Ian is not going to help prices.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 28, 2022, 08:39:54 PM
I imagine Ian is not going to help prices.

Should have shot it with a missile
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 28, 2022, 08:47:26 PM
"Jackie, are you here?? Where's Jackie??"

I think he has dementia.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 28, 2022, 08:50:16 PM
I think he has dementia.

The guy who wanted to nuke hurricanes? Yep.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 28, 2022, 09:00:16 PM
The guy who wanted to nuke hurricanes? Yep.

There's a difference between stupidity and dementia.  The guy has severe mental acuity problems MU82 and all the symptoms.  I'm sure you're aware of this and these issues don't go away with age.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 28, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
There's a difference between stupidity and dementia.  The guy has severe mental acuity problems MU82 and all the symptoms.  I'm sure you're aware of this and these issues don't go away with age.

Well, neither of us has seen actual medical reports on either man. But sure, Biden doesn't appear to be all there. And the previous guy acted demented most of the time, which make for quite a combination on top of his narcissitic personality disorder and his dictator complex.

It all makes one fondly recall #44 -- and others younger than 106.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MuggsyB on September 28, 2022, 09:17:21 PM
Well, neither of us has seen actual medical reports on either man. But sure, Biden doesn't appear to be all there. And the previous guy acted demented most of the time, which make for quite a combination on top of his narcissitic personality disorder and his dictator complex.



It all makes one fondly recall #44 -- and others younger than 106.

Agreed.  We should have an age limit, Trump has always been a narcissistic asshat, and Biden isn't all there to put it mildly. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TSmith34 on September 28, 2022, 09:24:22 PM
Agreed.  We should have an age limit, Trump has always been a narcissistic asshat, and Biden isn't all there to put it mildly.
Holy unnatural carnal knowledge, think about how much he has gotten done, and then just imagine how much would have gotten done if he "was all there", eh?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on September 29, 2022, 08:55:08 AM
I think he has dementia.


46 is certifiable, hey?

Where's Jackie? LOL, aina?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 29, 2022, 09:21:50 AM
"Frederick Douglass is an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job."
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 29, 2022, 09:29:37 AM
"The Continental Army suffered a bitter winter of Valley Forge, found glory across the waters of the Delaware, and seized victory from Cornwallis of Yorktown. Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do."
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 29, 2022, 09:39:48 AM
Quit electing boomers is the moral of the story
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on September 29, 2022, 09:41:24 AM
Quit electing boomers is the moral of the story

(https://media2.giphy.com/media/LpM872FjZASlTCw2uK/giphy.gif?cid=790b7611af874a76f14a7b6f6bd906cf485d6b88cd338dd9&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 29, 2022, 09:58:08 AM
Quit electing boomers is the moral of the story

Technically, Joe is even older.  He's a member of the silent generation.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 29, 2022, 10:07:23 AM
Technically, Joe is even older.  He's a member of the silent generation.

We need to round up all the boomers and silent generation and build a wall around them or send them to Canada and have their social security pay for it
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: lawdog77 on September 29, 2022, 10:39:54 AM
Technically, Joe is even older.  He's a member of the silent generation.
I wish Trump would have been a member of the silent generation
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 29, 2022, 10:55:23 AM
I wish Trump would have been a member of the silent generation

Yeah that would have been awfully ironic... then again Nancy is a member of the silent generation.

Maybe we should consider a name change for them while they're still around?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 29, 2022, 11:04:30 AM
Yeah that would have been awfully ironic... then again Nancy is a member of the silent generation.

Maybe we should consider a name change for them while they're still around?

Nancy usually had her mouth full
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on September 29, 2022, 12:00:15 PM
Nancy usually had her mouth full

That was Reagan, not Pelosi.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 29, 2022, 12:21:42 PM
That was Reagan, not Pelosi.

That’s who I meant.  Just say no to drugs, not dongs
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: ZaLiN on September 29, 2022, 01:59:06 PM
RIP Throatus
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 30, 2022, 09:24:25 AM
I realize that Rocky thinks I underestimate my fellow Americans and their being prepared for a potentially serious economic downturn, but I saw on CNBC today that 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Over the past week I have read many big time money guys sounding the alarm on a potentially serious economic episode on the way, and I am hoping they are stating this in an attempt to slow down the Fed in big interest rate hikes moving forward. That is one my glimmer of hope is that the big boys can put fear into the Fed.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on September 30, 2022, 09:26:15 AM
I realize that Rocky thinks I underestimate my fellow Americans and their being prepared for a potentially serious economic downturn, but I saw on CNBC today that 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Over the past week I have read many big time money guys sounding the alarm on a potentially serious economic episode on the way, and I am hoping they are stating this in an attempt to slow down the Fed in big interest rate hikes moving forward. That is one my glimmer of hope is that the big boys can put fear into the Fed.

My financial wizards have said similar, however, they also believe a quick bounce back.  We’ll see
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 30, 2022, 09:35:46 AM
Rico

Like it or not, the big boys have extreme power, and they definitely are sounding the alarm. Seldom do you see a slew of power brokers and economists singing the same song. I am in the camp of quick bounce back but hope it does. I think there is an awful lot of work to be done in corporate America to unravel all of the mess created by cheap money and the pandemic.

I have noted in past posts my experiences in our small company and disturbing trends are building every week. I mentioned last week in regard to our incoming AR and we are going to end the month at approx 80% of expected money received in September. To make matters more disturbing to us, for the first time since '08-'09 it appears that we have a couple of clients that will not be paying at all. We have had virtually no bad receivables in almost 15 years and it looks like the good run is coming to an end.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: jesmu84 on September 30, 2022, 11:01:39 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/whartons-siegel-says-jerome-powell-owes-the-american-people-an-apology-for-poor-fed-policy.html

Goose - folks have been living paycheck to paycheck for years with increasing numbers. Unfortunately, our government refuses to act and orgs/execs refuse to budge on monetary distribution
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 30, 2022, 11:24:19 AM
I realize that Rocky thinks I underestimate my fellow Americans and their being prepared for a potentially serious economic downturn, but I saw on CNBC today that 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Over the past week I have read many big time money guys sounding the alarm on a potentially serious economic episode on the way, and I am hoping they are stating this in an attempt to slow down the Fed in big interest rate hikes moving forward. That is one my glimmer of hope is that the big boys can put fear into the Fed.

Goose, I'm going to ask you to try to remember what you thought about a couple of other events. If you can remember, I have no doubt you will be truthful about your recollections.

1. The Great Recession. Every time I bought a stock or a fund, it continued going down. It was lather, rinse, repeat. Lots of pundits expected that recession to last for years and years and for the economy to remain broken for a long, long time. But it really lasted only about 2 years, the job recovery was unprecedented, and the market went on to scale never-before-seen heights. Housing also more than recovered -- it recovered so well that yet another bubble was created. For investors the Great Recession was The Great Gift. Those of us who invested regularly and stayed invested for more than a decade were rewarded handsomely. Those of us who owned or bought houses in good neighborhoods were rewarded with their value skyrocketing.

What did you think when the GR was going on? Did you think it would last only a couple of years and the recovery would be one that would turn lots of regular folks into classic "millionaires next door"? Or, as it was happening, did you think, "Shyte, things are really, really bad, and this might go on for 5 years or 10 years or more"?

2. The Pandemic Plunge. When we went into recession, and the market went into a free-fall, in the late winter and early spring of 2020, I thought it was going to take at least a year, and probably years, to recover. The overall economy still hasn't totally recovered from the pandemic, but the jobs recovery was strong, the consumer recovery was strong, and the stock market recovery was more than I expected.

How about you? Did you think that everybody who wanted a job would be able to get one, and that the job would pay more (in many cases much more) than it did before the pandemic? Did you think the market would hit bottom in only 6 weeks before beginning a climb that greatly benefited investors? Or, when it was going on, did you have mostly doom-and-gloom thoughts of a long, drawn-out economic collapse and market crash?

I ask for two reasons. One, I'm curious to know if you correctly predicted what would happen with those two most recent economic crises. And two, I'm kind of making the point -- in my case anyway -- of how in real time, when things are going on, they often are not as bad as they seem ... or as good as they seem in good times. Or maybe you think that "this time it's different" for some reason.

It's pretty easy to sit here right now and be all doom-and-gloomy. I'm not exactly turning cartwheels, and I'm a pretty optimistic guy. But I've also lived through five recessions as an adult, and each time the economy and the market recovered. So again, personally, I don't think I'm being "Pollyanna" in expecting that to happen again. History and common sense strongly suggest that it will happen again.

At the same time, I feel very badly for those less fortunate than you are and I am, because for those folks the pain is real and likely very long-lasting. Because, yes, a huge percentage of Americans who were left behind in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s are still living paycheck-to-paycheck.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Goose on September 30, 2022, 11:30:23 AM
82

I will try and send you a PM for a detailed response. Quick thoughts, in October '08 I had my oldest son transfer from MU to Madison 100% due to money. As for pandemic plunge, I shorted the S&P starting on 2/13/2020, unfortunately I continued to short daily until late May.

I think both instances were fortunate to have a scared Fed save the day. I do believe GR could have easily been a depression and I do not believe the whole pandemic plunge story has been lived out yet. IMO, what is happening now is a result of the pandemic.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: JWags85 on September 30, 2022, 11:32:58 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/whartons-siegel-says-jerome-powell-owes-the-american-people-an-apology-for-poor-fed-policy.html

Goose - folks have been living paycheck to paycheck for years with increasing numbers. Unfortunately, our government refuses to act and orgs/execs refuse to budge on monetary distribution

I thought inflation was solely due, or overwhelmingly due, to corporate greed  :o

But otherwise, as an early adoption Powell hater, I agree pretty strongly with Siegel.  The Fed is a mess and has been for some time.  They did some good short term things but I think they've sorely lacked for mid to long term strategy and perspective for Powell's entire tenure.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on September 30, 2022, 12:19:25 PM
82

I will try and send you a PM for a detailed response. Quick thoughts, in October '08 I had my oldest son transfer from MU to Madison 100% due to money. As for pandemic plunge, I shorted the S&P starting on 2/13/2020, unfortunately I continued to short daily until late May.

I think both instances were fortunate to have a scared Fed save the day. I do believe GR could have easily been a depression and I do not believe the whole pandemic plunge story has been lived out yet. IMO, what is happening now is a result of the pandemic.

This short answer pretty much deals with the point I was trying to make, so while I'd absolutely be interested in a longer answer from you via PM, don't feel obligated unless you want to.

When things are going on in real time (whether good or bad, but especially bad), it's normal to project greatness or horrible-ness (especially horrible-ness) for a long stretch. I am NOT trying to soft-sell what's going on now, just to try to bring in a little perspective.

I too thought the Great Recession might turn into a deep depression. I'm damn glad both of us were wrong. And I agree about the pandemic being the main culprit now.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Boozemon Barro on October 06, 2022, 12:02:21 PM
Congress needs to get their act together and propose a depression avoidance act. I think a cool $1 trillion should do the trick.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on October 06, 2022, 12:36:07 PM
OPEC just decided to f the entire world.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on October 06, 2022, 12:50:18 PM
OPEC just decided to f the entire world.

Sounds like we should introduce a little bit of freedom to em, aina?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: dgies9156 on October 06, 2022, 12:50:41 PM
I have a different take on what's happening.

First, the Federal Government had to flood the pandemic environment with tons of money (aka, PPP). To do otherwise would have triggered a massive Depression. GOP and Dems alike agreed and this was endemic of what President Roosevelt tried to do in the 1930s. We were accepting inflation in return for keeping the economy afloat. All in all, not a bad trade-offs. I'm not sure the Fed has accepted that.

Second, we had horrible bouts of inflation in 1973 and 1979. Like today, there were shocks to the crude oil supply. While Chairman Voelcker got his arms around inflation in 1979, much of the improvement came when oil prices stabilized in the 1980s -- and we learned to live without Iran's contributions. The effect of tightening the money supply will be to make us buy less energy, with the ripple effect running through the economy.

My systematic view is get crude oil prices under control and you get inflation under control. We need to pump and refine more American crude and go back to being energy self-sufficient. We fill the void, reduce demand for imported energy and suddenly the price comes down.

Finally, gang, I like the idea of renewable energy and electric vehicles. I hope we get there. But that's off in the future. We have to deal with the problems we have now and we can solve a lot of them by investing in domestic carbon-based energy.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: pacearrow02 on October 06, 2022, 01:11:54 PM
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/bidens-secret-promise-to-opec-backfires

We have only ourselves to blame.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on October 06, 2022, 01:13:22 PM
I have a different take on what's happening.

First, the Federal Government had to flood the pandemic environment with tons of money (aka, PPP). To do otherwise would have triggered a massive Depression. GOP and Dems alike agreed and this was endemic of what President Roosevelt tried to do in the 1930s. We were accepting inflation in return for keeping the economy afloat. All in all, not a bad trade-offs. I'm not sure the Fed has accepted that.

Second, we had horrible bouts of inflation in 1973 and 1979. Like today, there were shocks to the crude oil supply. While Chairman Voelcker got his arms around inflation in 1979, much of the improvement came when oil prices stabilized in the 1980s -- and we learned to live without Iran's contributions. The effect of tightening the money supply will be to make us buy less energy, with the ripple effect running through the economy.

My systematic view is get crude oil prices under control and you get inflation under control. We need to pump and refine more American crude and go back to being energy self-sufficient. We fill the void, reduce demand for imported energy and suddenly the price comes down.

Finally, gang, I like the idea of renewable energy and electric vehicles. I hope we get there. But that's off in the future. We have to deal with the problems we have now and we can solve a lot of them by investing in domestic carbon-based energy.

Maybe.  We produce more oil than anyone in the world.  We consume more as well.  Of course, we fall short of our consumption considerably.

Drill baby drill isn't the answer when there is a global shortage.  We also have active sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.  Lifting those would certainly increase global supply and drive down prices... but of course with Russia that'd be a bad idea.  Sanctioning Venezuela at this point is pretty fruitless, so it'd be nice if we would lift those.

The real problem is a lack of refineries.

Quote
"Refiners turn crude oil into usable products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. There's just fewer refiners in the U.S. today than a couple of years ago.

Refining capacity in the U.S. is about a million barrels a day below what it was prior to the pandemic. That's left the country unable to meet its fuel needs as more people are commuting, traveling and driving as they emerge from the throes of the pandemic."

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/26/1107265390/refinery-shortage-high-gas-prices-russia
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 06, 2022, 01:33:50 PM
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/bidens-secret-promise-to-opec-backfires

We have only ourselves to blame.

This is correct.  Our dependence on oil when there are so many alternatives out there is our own fault.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lennys Tap on October 06, 2022, 02:34:58 PM
This is correct.  Our dependence on oil when there are so many alternatives out there is our own fault.

I really hope this is meant as a joke.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 06, 2022, 02:46:23 PM
I really hope this is meant as a joke.

The joke is a society so blind to its ravenous consumption without a care for whether it’s sustainable or affordably prudent but I know, drill baby, drill and lay blame at the feet of anyone but ourselves
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: dgies9156 on October 06, 2022, 02:56:42 PM
The real problem is a lack of refineries.

As I said: "We need to pump and refine more American crude." To refine more American crude, we need more refining capacity. That comes with investment, which has a very long-term payback and requires some type of regulatory assurance that a change in Administration isn't going to put the refinery out of business.

Brother Hards, you and I agree that perhaps someday, nothing would be better than to have strong renewable energy and electric vehicles with the same utility as internal combustion engines. I applaud the investment in both, acknowledging that my electric utility (Florida Power) is one of the largest producers of solar energy in the US. But it will take time for the innovation and production to see its way into my driveway in Vero Beach. Until then, we need crude oil and refining capacity.

Yes, we consume more. But we're a big country with a very diverse climate and landscape. And, by the way, we produce one of the highest standards of living the world has ever seen!
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on October 06, 2022, 03:46:56 PM
Refinery capacity has been dropping for a while.   It is nearly impossible to build more refineries.  And from the oil company perspective, why?   Everyone is going to be driving electric in 15 years anyway.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on October 06, 2022, 04:02:37 PM
Yes, we consume more. But we're a big country with a very diverse climate and landscape. And, by the way, we produce one of the highest standards of living the world has ever seen!

We're hardly alone here. There are places all over the planet where people are experiencing the highest standards of living ever seen. In terms of quality of life issues, we're actually behind plenty of fellow Western democracies who consume less.
And the reason we have such a high standard of living is because of people who have strived to find new and better ways to do things, not those always eager to defend the status quo.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on October 06, 2022, 04:06:24 PM
Lenny, what is your opinion of Babcock Ranch?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: 4everwarriors on October 06, 2022, 04:18:03 PM
First thing the Buffoon did, in office, was to make us oil dependent on the Arabs. "Nobody fooks with a Biden," hey?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MUBurrow on October 06, 2022, 04:26:15 PM
To tie the threads together, it would be a damn shame if the boomers shuffled off this mortal coil with a drop of crude left under the crust of an American territory.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on October 06, 2022, 04:55:55 PM
As I said: "We need to pump and refine more American crude." To refine more American crude, we need more refining capacity. That comes with investment, which has a very long-term payback and requires some type of regulatory assurance that a change in Administration isn't going to put the refinery out of business.

Brother Hards, you and I agree that perhaps someday, nothing would be better than to have strong renewable energy and electric vehicles with the same utility as internal combustion engines. I applaud the investment in both, acknowledging that my electric utility (Florida Power) is one of the largest producers of solar energy in the US. But it will take time for the innovation and production to see its way into my driveway in Vero Beach. Until then, we need crude oil and refining capacity.

Yes, we consume more. But we're a big country with a very diverse climate and landscape. And, by the way, we produce one of the highest standards of living the world has ever seen!

I don't disagree.  We also need to invest in nuclear power plants like last year.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 06, 2022, 05:08:31 PM
I don't disagree.  We also need to invest in nuclear power plants like last year.

  holy dagum pigs are flying... hards and i have found something to share an amicable nonalcoholic beverage over
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: forgetful on October 06, 2022, 05:10:09 PM
As I said: "We need to pump and refine more American crude." To refine more American crude, we need more refining capacity. That comes with investment, which has a very long-term payback and requires some type of regulatory assurance that a change in Administration isn't going to put the refinery out of business.

Brother Hards, you and I agree that perhaps someday, nothing would be better than to have strong renewable energy and electric vehicles with the same utility as internal combustion engines. I applaud the investment in both, acknowledging that my electric utility (Florida Power) is one of the largest producers of solar energy in the US. But it will take time for the innovation and production to see its way into my driveway in Vero Beach. Until then, we need crude oil and refining capacity.

Yes, we consume more. But we're a big country with a very diverse climate and landscape. And, by the way, we produce one of the highest standards of living the world has ever seen!

This represents a gross misunderstanding of the state of oil production and reserves in the US. The main US producers have little interest in expanding drilling. For the greater part of 10+ years, big oil has leveraged itself heavily to secure oil rights, exploration, and new wells. In 2020, they almost bit it, because they were so over-leveraged. When oil prices came back up, they smartly used all those resources to deleverage, realizing that the price of oil did not justify new costly exploration and development.

They are sitting on leases, because it does not make economic sense to do more exploration and development in the US, especially when they still need to deleverage some.

Right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia made a major political play together. It signals they want the global western economy (Europe and the US) in a major recession. They want regime changes that will weaken western strength.

What we need to do to counteract that, is call their bluff. Immediately end sanctions on Venezuela and Iran under agreement that they both expand production, despite OPEC+ moves (they'd have to go against the organization they are a part of).
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lighthouse 84 on October 06, 2022, 05:11:05 PM
Refinery capacity has been dropping for a while.   It is nearly impossible to build more refineries.  And from the oil company perspective, why?   Everyone is going to be driving electric in 15 years anyway.
Hopefully by then they'll resolve the issues with EV batteries catching fire when they get get wet and corrode.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on October 06, 2022, 05:12:05 PM
First thing the Buffoon did, in office, was to make us oil dependent on the Arabs. "Nobody fooks with a Biden," hey?

Dependent lol
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on October 06, 2022, 05:13:03 PM
  holy dagum pigs are flying... hards and i have found something to share an amicable nonalcoholic beverage over

Been saying it for years.  Nuclear energy is extremely safe and environmentally friendly.  It's just expensive... but so is a trashed planet.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on October 06, 2022, 05:14:59 PM
COAL or is it COLE?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Pakuni on October 06, 2022, 05:17:49 PM
Hopefully by then they'll resolve the issues with EV batteries catching fire when they get get wet and corrode.

Hopefully.
The good news is that EVs catch fire and are recalled for fire safety reasons way less often than gas-powered and hybrid vehicles.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/study-electric-vehicles-involved-in-fewest-car-fires/
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Lighthouse 84 on October 06, 2022, 05:21:15 PM
Hopefully.
The good news is that EVs catch fire and are recalled for fire safety reasons way less often than gas-powered and hybrid vehicles.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/study-electric-vehicles-involved-in-fewest-car-fires/
Unless you're in Florida during a hurricane. ;)
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Golden Avalanche on October 06, 2022, 05:51:47 PM
First thing the Buffoon did, in office, was to make us oil dependent on the Arabs. "Nobody fooks with a Biden," hey?

This seems to suggest you have not been alive nor aware for any of the past 80 years. Either that or you're dumber than dog$hit. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on October 06, 2022, 05:57:44 PM
Hopefully by then they'll resolve the issues with EV batteries catching fire when they get get wet and corrode.

You don't have to tell me.  We are having classes and discussions on extinguishing Tesla fires.   Oy.    No bueno.

But, battery technology is developing rapidly.   Hopefully, the next generations will be better.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: tower912 on October 06, 2022, 05:58:39 PM
This seems to suggest you have not been alive nor aware for any of the past 80 years. Either that or you're dumber than dog$hit.
#2
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 06, 2022, 06:10:58 PM
Hopefully by then they'll resolve the issues with EV batteries catching fire when they get get wet and corrode.

aww come on man!  why just last week or so, the scoop (sully)powers that be told me that this was alarmist or something
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 06, 2022, 06:13:44 PM
This seems to suggest you have not been alive nor aware for any of the past 80 years. Either that or you're dumber than dog$hit.

  i got the banhammer for calling someone an ...hat.  this is would have hurt my feelings a little bit more
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 06, 2022, 06:18:57 PM
  i got the banhammer for calling someone an ...hat.  this is would have hurt my feelings a little bit more

6 out of 10.  Playing the victim is nice.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 06, 2022, 06:33:04 PM
6 out of 10.  Playing the victim is nice.

  stalker reeko strikes again
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 06, 2022, 06:38:31 PM
  stalker reeko strikes again

6 out of 10

Not a clever retort.  The spelling the name wrong could be interesting if it was more original.  The correct spelling is disappointing, too.  Weak effort
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Skatastrophy on October 06, 2022, 07:14:31 PM
6 out of 10

Not a clever retort.  The spelling the name wrong could be interesting if it was more original.  The correct spelling is disappointing, too.  Weak effort

Disagree, I like the reeko nickname. It smacks of insults in the early 90s. Fart knocker.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 06, 2022, 07:28:09 PM
Disagree, I like the reeko nickname. It smacks of insults in the early 90s. Fart knocker.

I’m just glad I’m not as frightening as Joy Behar
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: reinko on October 06, 2022, 07:59:46 PM
This represents a gross misunderstanding of the state of oil production and reserves in the US. The main US producers have little interest in expanding drilling. For the greater part of 10+ years, big oil has leveraged itself heavily to secure oil rights, exploration, and new wells. In 2020, they almost bit it, because they were so over-leveraged. When oil prices came back up, they smartly used all those resources to deleverage, realizing that the price of oil did not justify new costly exploration and development.

They are sitting on leases, because it does not make economic sense to do more exploration and development in the US, especially when they still need to deleverage some.

Right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia made a major political play together. It signals they want the global western economy (Europe and the US) in a major recession. They want regime changes that will weaken western strength.

What we need to do to counteract that, is call their bluff. Immediately end sanctions on Venezuela and Iran under agreement that they both expand production, despite OPEC+ moves (they'd have to go against the organization they are a part of).

Good lord about 10-15 responses have been made circle jerking about dumb crap when forgetful actually laid the actual issues. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Skatastrophy on October 06, 2022, 08:48:00 PM
Good lord about 10-15 responses have been made circle jerking about dumb crap when forgetful actually laid the actual issues. 

I mean, sorta. OPEC hasn't been hitting their production quotas for nearly a year. They just dropped their quota down to their actual production level.

If I'm wrong, please tell me I'm wrong. Reading the news about this I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: MU82 on October 07, 2022, 07:48:08 AM
New jobs report out this morning:

++ September nonfarm payrolls: +263K vs. +250K expected and +315K prior.
++ Unemployment rate of 3.5% vs. 3.7% expected and 3.7% in August.
++ Labor force participation rate of 62.3% vs. 62.4% in August.
++ Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% M/M to $32.46, in line with+0.3% consensus and unchanged from the prior month. On Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings increased 5.0%, a hair under the 5.1% consensus and down from the 5.2% rate in August.

This, naturally, has the market moving down pre-market. Decent numbers are bad -- even the fact that just about anybody who wants a job can get a job is bad -- in an inflationary environment.

Earlier this week, for some unknown reason, investors seemed to think the Fed was going to ease off on rate raising. But with a "good" jobs report like that, another .75 hike is in the offing.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 07, 2022, 03:53:49 PM
I mean, sorta. OPEC hasn't been hitting their production quotas for nearly a year. They just dropped their quota down to their actual production level.

If I'm wrong, please tell me I'm wrong. Reading the news about this I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

the bigger question remains, why do we put ourselves in position to beg for foreign oil from our enemies as opposed to drilling from our own vast supplies for ourselves and our allies. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball on October 07, 2022, 04:04:25 PM
the bigger question remains, why do we put ourselves in position to beg for foreign oil from our enemies as opposed to drilling from our own vast supplies for ourselves and our allies.

Is the answer because it is more profitable for the oil companies?
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 07, 2022, 04:09:13 PM
Is the answer because it is more profitable for the oil companies?

Not if you watch Fox News
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Hards Alumni on October 07, 2022, 05:15:32 PM
the bigger question remains, why do we put ourselves in position to beg for foreign oil from our enemies as opposed to drilling from our own vast supplies for ourselves and our allies.

Please read what we were talking about earlier.  There isn't refinery capacity and short of total government subsidizing no one in the private sector is looking to add more refinery capacity. 

We're not short on crude, we're short on refineries.

Also, eff the KSA, terrible country run by even worse people.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: noblewarrior on October 07, 2022, 05:44:38 PM
Refining Capacity 101...

https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/refining-capacity-101-what-understand-demanding-restarts

Is COVID the only reason why the U.S. is losing refining capacity?

No. A combination of factors is responsible for the United States’ loss of refining capacity. Choices to convert or shutter refineries are made very carefully—factoring in present and projected future fuel demand, the political environment as well as facility locations and their individual market access. Political and financial pressure to move away from petroleum derived fuels, costs associated with federal and state regulatory compliance and facilities’ singular economic performance all inform these decisions. The sharp drop in fuel demand over the course of the pandemic certainly sped up the timeframe for refining contractions, closures and transitions, but many of these moves were already planned or underway, something Chevron CEO Mike Wirth acknowledged in a recent interview.
Refining is a long-view industry. Facility closures and transitions are not knee-jerk decisions, and they were never intended to be undone. They are meticulously reasoned and based on far more than short-term, transitory data.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 07, 2022, 06:08:21 PM
Please read what we were talking about earlier.  There isn't refinery capacity and short of total government subsidizing no one in the private sector is looking to add more refinery capacity  

We're not short on crude, we're short on refineries.

Also, eff the KSA, terrible country run by even worse people.

  no one in the private sector is...horse hockey

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/09/business/no-new-refineries-in-29-years-there-might-well-be-a-reason.html

  as much as you'd like to believe that, the dirty little secrets are-money, permits, permits, permits and gubmint issued knee pads
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 07, 2022, 06:13:28 PM
  no one in the private sector is...horse hockey

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/09/business/no-new-refineries-in-29-years-there-might-well-be-a-reason.html

  as much as you'd like to believe that, the dirty little secrets are-money, permits, permits, permits and gubmint issued knee pads

7 out of 10
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 07, 2022, 06:32:22 PM
7 out of 10

  there he is!  auntie geeko, like pavlov's dogs.  you musta been going thru withdrawals.  your peeps are just rolling on the floor with your schtick
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Uncle Rico on October 07, 2022, 06:41:14 PM
  there he is!  auntie geeko, like pavlov's dogs.  you musta been going thru withdrawals.  your peeps are just rolling on the floor with your schtick

6 out of 10

Look at all that correct spelling!  Disappointing effort. 
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocket surgeon on October 07, 2022, 07:02:54 PM
6 out of 10

Look at all that correct spelling!  Disappointing effort.

  his rocket scoop beeper is on high alert tonight
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: Sultan Sultanberger on October 07, 2022, 08:09:59 PM
  no one in the private sector is...horse hockey

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/09/business/no-new-refineries-in-29-years-there-might-well-be-a-reason.html

  as much as you'd like to believe that, the dirty little secrets are-money, permits, permits, permits and gubmint issued knee pads


Sorry, but this is an article from 17 years ago and doesn't reflect the major current problem - refineries went offline during the early stage of the pandemic and haven't come back online.  We have five less refineries operating now than we did at the beginning of 2020.

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/26/1107265390/refinery-shortage-high-gas-prices-russia

Also remember that oil companies are sitting on leases on federal land.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/63745d4475104a33968081ff008e36b9

So yeah, Biden paused issuing more leases.  Why should they issue more if the oil companies aren't going to use the ones they have?

Blaming the current administration for high fuel prices is nonsense.
Title: Re: So much for inflation being "transitory"
Post by: rocky_warrior on October 08, 2022, 08:51:53 AM
Stepped awa for a few days, I think this has run it's course...