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Author Topic: 22-23 W-L Predictions  (Read 8879 times)

tower912

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #150 on: September 29, 2022, 01:36:20 PM »
AE did a deep dive.  Transition defense was bad and our transition offense tailed off.   Those were the two noticeable statistical differences.
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wadesworld

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #151 on: September 29, 2022, 02:17:12 PM »
Yeah, the narrative of "other teams figured us out the second time around" is false. First time through the conference 5-4, second time through 5-4. Throw in the last game with StJ (a win). We were what our record stated. No real slump or trending downward at the end of the year. Ran into two hot teams (Creighton and UNC) in the post season.

Second half of the season.  We were 7-3 through our first 10 Big East games.  We went 4-5 in our last 9, plus then lost the first game of the BET and the first game of the NCAA Tournament.  Went from 15-6 (7-3) to 19-12 (11-8).
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TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #152 on: September 29, 2022, 02:30:37 PM »
And before someone makes the "small sample size" argument, keep in mind that everyone who made the same "don't worry, other teams just did a better job of adjusting" argument used the same data.  Right now it's just for fun.  In a few years we'll know if Cooley or Stubblefield are consistently better at making adjustments or if it were a one-time fluke.

I think the bigger problem with your assertion is that you can't look at changes in margin of victory and declare that the difference was entirely because one coach or the other was better at making adjustments. There's a lot of factors that go into winning a basketball game, not just coaching adjustments.
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lawdog77

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #153 on: September 29, 2022, 02:36:30 PM »
Second half of the season.  We were 7-3 through our first 10 Big East games.  We went 4-5 in our last 9, plus then lost the first game of the BET and the first game of the NCAA Tournament.  Went from 15-6 (7-3) to 19-12 (11-8).
That argument is different than those that state coaches figured us out (or made better adjustments) the second time we played them.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #154 on: September 29, 2022, 02:38:16 PM »
Second half of the season.  We were 7-3 through our first 10 Big East games.  We went 4-5 in our last 9, plus then lost the first game of the BET and the first game of the NCAA Tournament.  Went from 15-6 (7-3) to 19-12 (11-8).

Right. I don't mean that coaches made adjustments the second time they played against MU. I mean the book was out on them and other coaches took note during the second half of the year.

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lawdog77

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #155 on: September 29, 2022, 02:49:57 PM »
Right. I don't mean that coaches made adjustments the second time they played against MU. I mean the book was out on them and other coaches took note during the second half of the year.
Or we had an extremely hot streak, punching above our weight for 7 games, then fell back to our mean.

Uncle Rico

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #156 on: September 29, 2022, 02:55:52 PM »
Or we had an extremely hot streak, punching above our weight for 7 games, then fell back to our mean.

They won a few games early in the season they had no right to win
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #157 on: September 29, 2022, 02:58:57 PM »
Or we had an extremely hot streak, punching above our weight for 7 games, then fell back to our mean.

9 games, really.

7-game winning streak was followed by a tough 2-point loss at Providence in which we played pretty darn well, followed by a huge win at Nova. That 8-1 streak included 5 wins over ranked teams (Nova twice). It was as good a month as Marquette basketball has had in a long, long time.

Did our alma mater's team play over its head? Seems so, but it was sure fun.

They won a few games early in the season they had no right to win

That also might be true. But did we have "no right to lose" to Butler and DePaul?
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tower912

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #158 on: September 29, 2022, 03:04:31 PM »
It was a hot streak.  It was fun.  They always are.  (20-2)  Adjustments were made.  Young guys got fatigued.

In the end, 19-12 was about as good as MU could have hoped for going into the season.    UNC was just a terrible match up.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2022, 06:26:26 PM by tower912 »
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Uncle Rico

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #159 on: September 29, 2022, 05:03:51 PM »
9 games, really.

7-game winning streak was followed by a tough 2-point loss at Providence in which we played pretty darn well, followed by a huge win at Nova. That 8-1 streak included 5 wins over ranked teams (Nova twice). It was as good a month as Marquette basketball has had in a long, long time.

Did our alma mater's team play over its head? Seems so, but it was sure fun.

That also might be true. But did we have "no right to lose" to Butler and DePaul?

Probably
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

Goose

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #160 on: September 29, 2022, 05:35:11 PM »
It is very hard to play every game like it is the last game of the season, especially when you are not a complete roster. Imo, it was in large part of playing two months of basketball better than expected based off of effort.

All I know, last years team really provided a ton of excitement during the dead of winter and I loved it. It would have been great to finish stronger but it does not diminish an exciting run of basketball.

My expectations are much higher going into this season over the same time last year. Time to deliver for a season, not just a great run.

MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #161 on: September 29, 2022, 11:34:46 PM »
We had a great, enjoyable run in 2018-19, too. We were 21-2 over a 3-month stretch and ascended into the national top 10. We had an All-American player, and some incredible wins, especially the one over Creighton when Sam's shot tied it. We don't have to rehash how it all ended. I'm just saying that we did have an exciting run that year, too.

I do believe last season was far more surprising. We were expected to be pretty good in 2018-19, but not many outside of very optimistic MU fans expected much going into Shaka's first season. Job well done!

I agree with Goose that we shouldn't be lowering our expectations now. We have a large percentage of last year's team back, multiple reports say that many of those players have improved a lot, we have a couple of interesting newcomers, there's a system that is firmly in place, and we have a proven winner of a coach who knows how to communicate with young athletes. I'll be disappointed if we take a step backward, and I don't think we will.
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The Equalizer

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #162 on: September 30, 2022, 02:51:00 PM »
I think the bigger problem with your assertion is that you can't look at changes in margin of victory and declare that the difference was entirely because one coach or the other was better at making adjustments.

I never said changes in margin of victory were entirely because of coaching adjustments.

There's a lot of factors that go into winning a basketball game, not just coaching adjustments.

But certainly, you would agree that at least some of the difference can be attributed to the relative coaching adjustments made by the two coaches, which, by the way, was the topic discussed here.


TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #163 on: September 30, 2022, 03:23:18 PM »
I never said changes in margin of victory were entirely because of coaching adjustments.

I mean, you introduced your post by saying you were going to look at which coaches "did a good job and which didn't" in making adjustments. Then the only factor you looked at was change in margin of victory from the first time we played a team to the second time we played them. Then you concluded by saying that Shaka was worse than 4 coaches and better than 4 coaches. The only way you can come to that conclusion is if you ignore all other factors that could have resulted in a change to the margin of victory.

Simply put, if other teams study us and make adjustments in order to turn a loss into a win, we have an equal opportunity to do the same.  You have to look at which coaches did a good job and which didn't.

So if you were to compare Shaka's adjustment-making ability based on last season, he was worse than Cooley, Stubblefield, Ewing, and McDermott, on par with Hurley, and better than Steele, Jordan, Wright, and Willard.

But certainly, you would agree that at least some of the difference can be attributed to the relative coaching adjustments made by the two coaches, which, by the way, was the topic discussed here.

Sure. But that doesn't mean you can say "we lost to team X by 1 more point than we did in the first game, ergo Coach of Team X is better at making adjustments than Shaka"
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bilsu

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #164 on: September 30, 2022, 09:42:20 PM »
I'm not sure it's the comforting comment it's being made out to be.

Simply put, if other teams study us and make adjustments in order to turn a loss into a win, we have an equal opportunity to do the same.  You have to look at which coaches did a good job and which didn't.

We played St. Johns only once, so they're not included.  Four teams wound up performing better in the 2nd (or 3rd) matchup against MU.  2 of them turning losses into wins (DePaul and Providence), one narrowing the margin of loss (Georgetown), and one increasing their margin of victory (Creighton). 

Georgetown  +28, +11, 17 point improvement made by Ewing compared to the previous meeting
DePaul +11, -11, 22 point improvement by Stubblefield
Providence +32, -2 34 point improvement by Cooley
2nd to 3rd Creighton -1, -11 10 point improvement by McDermott

The 1st Creighton game was a 6 point loss in 2OT, and the 2nd game was a 1 point loss in regulation.  I don't know whether to credit that as a 1 point improvement for McDermott or a 5 point improvement for Shaka, so I'm not including it.

One team we managed to have equal margin in both games--UConn. 
UConn -8, -8

Three games resulted in a better performance for Marquette in the second matchup increasing margin over Villanova by 7, Seton Hall by 9, turning an 11 point loss to Xavier into an 11 point win, and turning a six point loss at Butler into a 9 point win.
Xavier -11, +11 22 point improvement by Shaka
Villanova +3, +10 7 point improvement by Shaka
Seton Hall +1, +10 9 point improvement by Shaka
Butler -6, +9, 15 point improvement by Shaka


So if you were to compare Shaka's adjustment-making ability based on last season, he was worse than Cooley, Stubblefield, Ewing, and McDermott, on par with Hurley, and better than Steele, Jordan, Wright, and Willard.

The bad news: all four coaches who Shaka bettered at making adjustments last season have left the league.

And before someone makes the "small sample size" argument, keep in mind that everyone who made the same "don't worry, other teams just did a better job of adjusting" argument used the same data.  Right now it's just for fun.  In a few years we'll know if Cooley or Stubblefield are consistently better at making adjustments or if it were a one-time fluke.

All four of these teams have new coaches. Two were fired, one left for Maryland and Wright retired.
This does not mean anything, I just thought it was interesting.

Newsdreams

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #165 on: October 01, 2022, 10:43:51 AM »
All four of these teams have new coaches. Two were fired, one left for Maryland and Wright retired.
This does not mean anything, I just thought it was interesting.
Shaka only beat the easy coaches
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GoldenEagles03

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #166 on: November 16, 2022, 09:39:28 PM »
Radford - W
Central Michigan - W
@Purdue - L
LIU - W
vs. Mississippi St. - L
vs. Georgia Tech/Utah - W
Chicago St.- W
Baylor - L
Wisconsin - W
North Carolina Central - W
@Notre Dame - L
Creighton - W
@Providence - L
Seton Hall - W
@Villanova - L
@St. John's - W
Georgetown - W
UConn - W
@Xavier - L
Providence - W
@Seton Hall - L
@DePaul - L
Villanova - L
Butler - W
@UConn - L
@Georgetown - L
Xavier - L
@Creighton - L
DePaul - W
@Butler - L
St. John's - W

Overall: 16- 15 (18-16 counting BET)
Big East Record: 9-11
Big East Tournament Seed: 8
Big East Tournament Result: Loss in the Semis
Postseason Tournament and Seed: NIT 4
Postseason Result: Loss in 2nd game of NIT

Feelin' pretty good about starting 8 for 8 with these predictions
VIOLENCE!

Newsdreams

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #167 on: November 16, 2022, 10:32:10 PM »
Feelin' pretty good about starting 8 for 8 with these predictions
Pat yourself on the back
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GoldenEagles03

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #168 on: November 16, 2022, 11:07:14 PM »
Pat yourself on the back

I picked them to lose every game on the road this season except St. John's.

😂

It could happen 🤷‍♂️

I'd change it if I could. I'm way higher on DePaul and Seton Hall now, than I previously was before the season.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2022, 11:08:54 PM by GoldenEagles03 »
VIOLENCE!

The Equalizer

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #169 on: November 17, 2022, 07:41:23 AM »
I picked them to lose every game on the road this season except St. John's.

😂

It could happen 🤷‍♂️

I'd change it if I could. I'm way higher on DePaul and Seton Hall now, than I previously was before the season.

I get DePaul, but Seton Hall after last night?

At the start of the year I thought we would sweep Georgetown, get swept by Xavier, UConn and Creighton, and split with everyone else.

The only change I'd make from watching the first few games is that unless Villanova gets Whitmore and Moore back (at a decent level of effectiveness), we could sweep them as well.

MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #170 on: November 17, 2022, 07:43:20 AM »
Feelin' pretty good about starting 8 for 8 with these predictions

Congrats on picking us to beat two cupcakes at home and lose to a perennial NCAAT team on the road. That's a real bold 3-0 start. Almost a profile in courage!
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

Shooter McGavin

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #171 on: November 17, 2022, 07:51:48 AM »
Congrats on picking us to beat two cupcakes at home and lose to a perennial NCAAT team on the road. That's a real bold 3-0 start. Almost a profile in courage!

Agreed weird thing to brag about.  Reminds me of my in-laws who say their team is undefeated and in first place in their conference when they are 1-0. And they mean it.

panda

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #172 on: November 17, 2022, 08:02:34 AM »
Feelin' pretty good about starting 8 for 8 with these predictions

L to Baylor and W to Chicago state. Really going out on a limb there.

lawdog77

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #173 on: November 17, 2022, 08:19:52 AM »
he's a real Dimetrios Georgios Synodinos

Uncle Rico

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #174 on: November 17, 2022, 08:34:06 AM »
Agreed weird thing to brag about.  Reminds me of my in-laws who say their team is undefeated and in first place in their conference when they are 1-0. And they mean it.

Your in-laws must be Viking fans
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?