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Author Topic: 22-23 W-L Predictions  (Read 8875 times)

Newsdreams

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #125 on: September 28, 2022, 08:17:54 AM »
If MU goes 10-22 (or anything approaching that), Shaka should be fired the day after the season ends.  But I would love to read his fanboys here defending that record.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #126 on: September 28, 2022, 08:21:22 AM »
If MU goes 10-22 (or anything approaching that), Shaka should be fired the day after the season ends.  But I would love to read his fanboys here defending that record.

So, you’d love failure for that reason?  Real fan
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #127 on: September 28, 2022, 08:25:58 AM »
So, you’d love failure for that reason?  Real fan
Badger troll.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #128 on: September 28, 2022, 08:28:09 AM »
If MU goes 10-22 (or anything approaching that), Shaka should be fired the day after the season ends.  But I would love to read his fanboys here defending that record.


It would be a huge disappointment. But no...he shouldn't be fired.
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cheebs09

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #129 on: September 28, 2022, 08:55:13 AM »
If MU goes 10-22 (or anything approaching that), Shaka should be fired the day after the season ends.  But I would love to read his fanboys here defending that record.

If the starting 5 gets hurt, and we go 10-22, do you still think he should be fired?

I would be very disappointed and have some serious questions if this team went 10-22. But I think it would make it difficult to hire a high quality coach if we fired another coach already.

Goose

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #130 on: September 28, 2022, 09:33:02 AM »
Last year my optimism going into the season was that Shaka would have buy in from the guys and they would overachieve, and I believe that happened. Watching the videos that MU shares, talking to folks that I consider knowledgeable and all the guys returning has my level of optimism at a very high level. In addition, it seems like the team has great chemistry off the court and kudo's to Shaka for building a real culture at MU.

On top of that, I love the style of player and play MU is going to play. It sure looks like it will be hard pressed to play a team that have a better collection of athletes. If one or two guys made big strides as a basketball player in the offseason, I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people.

Scoop Snoop

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #131 on: September 28, 2022, 10:09:40 AM »
Last year my optimism going into the season was that Shaka would have buy in from the guys and they would overachieve, and I believe that happened. Watching the videos that MU shares, talking to folks that I consider knowledgeable and all the guys returning has my level of optimism at a very high level. In addition, it seems like the team has great chemistry off the court and kudo's to Shaka for building a real culture at MU.

On top of that, I love the style of player and play MU is going to play. It sure looks like it will be hard pressed to play a team that have a better collection of athletes. If one or two guys made big strides as a basketball player in the offseason, I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people.

Thanks for posting this Goose. You were right for part of last season, and I am hoping that you are right for the entire season this time. I am really encouraged by this.
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Goose

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #132 on: September 28, 2022, 10:23:01 AM »
Scoop

My biggest concern last season ended being the team running out of gas, not other teams figuring them out. The stretch they played in Jan was extremely high energy and every game felt like a tournament game. They were not good enough or deep enough to not be at 100% energy and it seemed like they ran out of gas. In addition, I do think they might have thought they were better than they were, both individually and as a team.

I have confidence that Shaka and the team probably learned as much from the end of the season as they did from the first half of the year. I am extremely excited to see how the guys progressed in the offseason and the style they will be playing. Good days are ahead for the program.

Scoop Snoop

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #133 on: September 28, 2022, 10:33:46 AM »
Gotcha Goose. I like your narrative/take about the second half of the season. I heard the "figured out" so often but somehow that seemed a bit simplistic to me. I hope my 19-12 prediction ends up looking like coleslaw.
"Your words don't mean anything to me. Argument doesn't have any effect on me."
Doc Burton: "I wasn't arguing. I was asking for information. All of you people get angry when you're asked a question."
                                           
                Excerpt from a Steinbeck novel.

MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #134 on: September 28, 2022, 03:17:47 PM »
Gotcha Goose. I like your narrative/take about the second half of the season. I heard the "figured out" so often but somehow that seemed a bit simplistic to me.

It can be some of both.

Opponents definitely played the pick-and-roll better later in the season. They forced Kolek to drive more into traffic. They learning which MU players to leave open. How many of our out-of-bounds plays worked well the last month?

But I think we did wear down, too. Kam, Lewis and especially Greg stopped hitting jumpers. We only shot about 30% from 3 over the last couple of weeks -- possibly a sign of tired legs. And the team's poor defense down the stretch might have had something to do with wearing down, also.

Then again, folks sure hated it when "tired legs" was used as an excuse by and/or for the previous regime. So here's hoping it's not an excuse this season.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

Newsdreams

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #135 on: September 28, 2022, 03:21:09 PM »
It can be some of both.

Opponents definitely played the pick-and-roll better later in the season. They forced Kolek to drive more into traffic. They learning which MU players to leave open. How many of our out-of-bounds plays worked well the last month?

But I think we did wear down, too. Kam, Lewis and especially Greg stopped hitting jumpers. We only shot about 30% from 3 over the last couple of weeks -- possibly a sign of tired legs. And the team's poor defense down the stretch might have had something to do with wearing down, also.

Then again, folks sure hated it when "tired legs" was used as an excuse by and/or for the previous regime. So here's hoping it's not an excuse this season.
Young guys never get tired!
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tower912

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #136 on: September 28, 2022, 03:22:34 PM »
Balderdash
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #137 on: September 28, 2022, 03:58:18 PM »
Young guys never get tired!

Later in his career, Knight said that with all the 3-minute TV timeouts and other stoppages, players should never get tired.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

tower912

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #138 on: September 28, 2022, 04:01:19 PM »
Late in his career, Bobby Knight was not a reliable source.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #139 on: September 28, 2022, 04:06:27 PM »
Knight said a lot of things.
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MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #140 on: September 28, 2022, 04:15:17 PM »
True dat, tower and Sultan.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

Newsdreams

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #141 on: September 28, 2022, 07:00:46 PM »
True dat, tower and Sultan.
He also choke players, assaulted a policeman and other various incidents.
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Goose

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #142 on: September 28, 2022, 08:29:49 PM »
82

I should have been been clear in my post about running out of gas. I think they lost the mental chip they played with on the hot stretch as much as physically. I do not believe they had tired legs, rather they lost their edge and did not get it back.

MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #143 on: September 28, 2022, 09:00:10 PM »
82

I should have been been clear in my post about running out of gas. I think they lost the mental chip they played with on the hot stretch as much as physically. I do not believe they had tired legs, rather they lost their edge and did not get it back.

Thanks for the clarification. That makes sense, Goose. They had so many tight games, one-possession games. It was one of the more exciting months of MU basketball in years.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #144 on: September 29, 2022, 06:27:49 AM »
82

I should have been been clear in my post about running out of gas. I think they lost the mental chip they played with on the hot stretch as much as physically. I do not believe they had tired legs, rather they lost their edge and did not get it back.

I said it last year but I will repeat:  Last year's team played too fast for its talent. The coaches stuck with it when it was going well and when it wasn't. The team wasn't mentally or physically tired, opposing coaches adjusted the second time through conference.

Teams laid off Kur and then doubled JLew. Kolek's left handed path to the basket with him being unable to either shoot effectively from outside or at the rim...and to jump his passing lanes for turnovers resulted. Greg's same old spot in the corner was easy to cover as he was a one trick pony. Make Morsell play PG. Lack of rebounding. Result: Losses on transition, extended possessions.

This year's team, while missing those experienced parts, is built for Shaka's systems. More so, the player depth and experience have caught up. Last year when Tyler was off, only a defensive minded Stevie could step in. Now there is an improved Stevie and Sean, and Tyler will be on his second year as a PG.

There will be up and downs, and not all the wins may be there, but this team is more multidimensional.

MU82

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #145 on: September 29, 2022, 07:40:27 AM »
I said it last year but I will repeat:  Last year's team played too fast for its talent. The coaches stuck with it when it was going well and when it wasn't. The team wasn't mentally or physically tired, opposing coaches adjusted the second time through conference.

Teams laid off Kur and then doubled JLew. Kolek's left handed path to the basket with him being unable to either shoot effectively from outside or at the rim...and to jump his passing lanes for turnovers resulted. Greg's same old spot in the corner was easy to cover as he was a one trick pony. Make Morsell play PG. Lack of rebounding. Result: Losses on transition, extended possessions.

This year's team, while missing those experienced parts, is built for Shaka's systems. More so, the player depth and experience have caught up. Last year when Tyler was off, only a defensive minded Stevie could step in. Now there is an improved Stevie and Sean, and Tyler will be on his second year as a PG.

There will be up and downs, and not all the wins may be there, but this team is more multidimensional.

FWIW (probably not much), I really like this assessment.

I read this and it makes me say for the umpteenth time: I sure hope Kolek has improved his right hand, has become a better finisher, and has at least a semblance of both a pull-up game and a float game. Heck, any 2 of those (especially the right hand) and he will be so much better for us. He surprised me last season ... but we still need improved PG play, from him or someone else.

I do think we might have been worn down some by the final weeks of the season, mentally, perhaps physically, perhaps both. But yes, opponents took away some of the things we did best.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

Goose

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #146 on: September 29, 2022, 08:10:19 AM »
Dr. B

I agree with your comments for this upcoming season. As for last year, I do not remember all of the specifics of the last month, but I thought our intensity was not as high and that was part of the problem. I am sure teams studied and made adjustments and that was part of the problem. More importantly, I am betting the learned a great deal from the last 10+ games.

lawdog77

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #147 on: September 29, 2022, 12:45:12 PM »
Yeah, the narrative of "other teams figured us out the second time around" is false. First time through the conference 5-4, second time through 5-4. Throw in the last game with StJ (a win). We were what our record stated. No real slump or trending downward at the end of the year. Ran into two hot teams (Creighton and UNC) in the post season.

DoctorV

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #148 on: September 29, 2022, 01:22:34 PM »
It can be some of both.

Opponents definitely played the pick-and-roll better later in the season. They forced Kolek to drive more into traffic. They learning which MU players to leave open. How many of our out-of-bounds plays worked well the last month?

But I think we did wear down, too. Kam, Lewis and especially Greg stopped hitting jumpers. We only shot about 30% from 3 over the last couple of weeks -- possibly a sign of tired legs. And the team's poor defense down the stretch might have had something to do with wearing down, also.

Then again, folks sure hated it when "tired legs" was used as an excuse by and/or for the previous regime. So here's hoping it's not an excuse this season.

A lot of great takes in this thread.

As for the above, I agree, but I’ve been told the offense actually improved later in the year?

The unarguable no brainer is that the rebounding was abysmal, and the defense/defensive effort was not as good.

However, I agree with the above that after the gauntlet stretch and into the second half of the season the offense was not as crisp and wasn’t getting buckets with the ease and consistency as before. Not sure if the stats bear that, but it sure seemed that way. Perhaps it was partly a result of always needing a bucket due to brutal play on the defensive end.

Remember last year started very slow offensively, with Marquette launching a ton of 3s in the first stretch of the season and then it seemed like the staff went away from that a bit. Then there seemed to be a fantastic offensive stretch- if I recall elite stretch nationally- using p&r and the bigs driving to the bucket for easy hoops or kick outs and made 3s. Then that seemed to go away at the end.

It’ll be interesting to see how this season plays out

The Equalizer

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Re: 22-23 W-L Predictions
« Reply #149 on: September 29, 2022, 01:28:25 PM »
Quote from: Goose link=topic=63574.msg1470747#msg1470747 date=

I agree with your comments for this upcoming season. As for last year, I do not remember all of the specifics of the last month, but I thought our intensity was not as high and that was part of the problem. I am sure teams studied and made adjustments and that was part of the problem. More importantly, I am betting the learned a great deal from the last 10+ games.

I'm not sure it's the comforting comment it's being made out to be.

Simply put, if other teams study us and make adjustments in order to turn a loss into a win, we have an equal opportunity to do the same.  You have to look at which coaches did a good job and which didn't.

We played St. Johns only once, so they're not included.  Four teams wound up performing better in the 2nd (or 3rd) matchup against MU.  2 of them turning losses into wins (DePaul and Providence), one narrowing the margin of loss (Georgetown), and one increasing their margin of victory (Creighton). 

Georgetown  +28, +11, 17 point improvement made by Ewing compared to the previous meeting
DePaul +11, -11, 22 point improvement by Stubblefield
Providence +32, -2 34 point improvement by Cooley
2nd to 3rd Creighton -1, -11 10 point improvement by McDermott

The 1st Creighton game was a 6 point loss in 2OT, and the 2nd game was a 1 point loss in regulation.  I don't know whether to credit that as a 1 point improvement for McDermott or a 5 point improvement for Shaka, so I'm not including it.

One team we managed to have equal margin in both games--UConn. 
UConn -8, -8

Three games resulted in a better performance for Marquette in the second matchup increasing margin over Villanova by 7, Seton Hall by 9, turning an 11 point loss to Xavier into an 11 point win, and turning a six point loss at Butler into a 9 point win.
Xavier -11, +11 22 point improvement by Shaka
Villanova +3, +10 7 point improvement by Shaka
Seton Hall +1, +10 9 point improvement by Shaka
Butler -6, +9, 15 point improvement by Shaka

So if you were to compare Shaka's adjustment-making ability based on last season, he was worse than Cooley, Stubblefield, Ewing, and McDermott, on par with Hurley, and better than Steele, Jordan, Wright, and Willard.

The bad news: all four coaches who Shaka bettered at making adjustments last season have left the league.

And before someone makes the "small sample size" argument, keep in mind that everyone who made the same "don't worry, other teams just did a better job of adjusting" argument used the same data.  Right now it's just for fun.  In a few years we'll know if Cooley or Stubblefield are consistently better at making adjustments or if it were a one-time fluke.