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Poll

Can Marquette become a Blueblood again?

Of course, we have the coach, the facilities and budget to do it. It just takes time
Maybe, but we have serious work to do
Am not sure but the team still is entertaining
Probably not. NIL, conference restructuring and one-and-dones mean time has passed us by
Are you kidding? Al McGuire was a fluke never to be repeated!

Author Topic: Blue Blood  (Read 3893 times)

TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #50 on: September 05, 2022, 08:35:56 PM »
That sounds great except the P5 (P2? P2.5?) have zero interest in bringing the rest of the FBS along for the ride. Do you seriously believe that the Sun Belt is getting an invite to the new world order?
« Last Edit: September 05, 2022, 08:38:26 PM by TAMU Eagle »
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Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #51 on: September 05, 2022, 08:38:05 PM »
And there is little, if any smoke to any of this.
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wadesworld

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #52 on: September 05, 2022, 08:40:24 PM »
I’m not saying a split is likely. I’m just saying that it’s more likely to happen than for Marquette to become a blue blood.
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brewcity77

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #53 on: September 05, 2022, 09:53:19 PM »
If they're sharing, it sure as hell isn't with other FBS schools that will lessen the value of their product.
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MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #54 on: September 06, 2022, 08:04:30 AM »
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The Equalizer

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #55 on: September 06, 2022, 08:56:02 AM »
Quote from: TAMU Eagle link=topic=63559.msg1467103#msg1467103 date=
That sounds great except the P5 (P2? P2.5?) have zero interest in bringing the rest of the FBS along for the ride. Do you seriously believe that the Sun Belt is getting an invite to the new world order?

Yes.

First, their largest interest lies in Brew's observation that 60 teams aren't enough to stage a championship that will generate large media rights.  They might not want to, but bringing along an extra 70 or so teams is a necessary cost associated with getting a multibillion-dollar media rights package for their basketball tournament.  In other words, if you don't allow the sunbelt along for the ride, you're not getting your increased payday. 

Second, carrying those 70 extra teams is a lot more attractive than continuing to bring 950 extra teams, as is the case today.

Third, there are 41 bowl games, so you already set a minimum of 82 teams would be needed--and that's if EVERY team goes to a bowl--you would still need teams to absorb the losses so you dont' wind up with an 0-12 team in a bowl game. 

Fourth, those P2/P5 teams are still going to need some teems to fill the buy-game opposition to fill the December calendars. The last four in still need to get to 18+ wins.  Someone has to take those losses.


cheebs09

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #56 on: September 06, 2022, 09:15:03 AM »
Wouldn’t the Big East schools be more attractive to the P5 football schools? They could help the basketball product without any impact to the football money, which is what everyone cares about.

Isn’t part of the reason for the desire to split because the P5 football schools don’t want to share with the Sun Belt? Look at how the non-P5 schools get treated in playoff rankings. Unless it’s overwhelmingly obvious, they aren’t getting in.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #57 on: September 06, 2022, 09:25:03 AM »
The rationalization is simply this:
If the FBS as a group left the NCAA, they could negotiate a new basketball tournament television contract beginning as soon as 2024. It's been said that such a contract could be worth as much as $1.5 billion to $2 billion per year, whereas the NCAA is locked into a contract that gave them only $870 million for 2022, with minimal increases out to 2032.

9 years (2023 to 2032) of an incremental $630 million to $1.13 billion annually ain't chump change and is more than enough to at least consider the viability.

Then figure that the larger revenue pool would then be split across 130 schools, and eliminate 220 D1, 303 D2, and 437 D3 schools from sharing in the revenue. 

It takes an incredibly huge amount of naivete to even think that Sankey, the media, or anyone else involved in the process would say a word publicly about any split until iron-clad contracts are finalized. They're certainly not going to tip their hand and give the NCAA and the 950 teams left behind time to fight the move.


I think you are underestimating the legal liability here. The D1 schools consented to the expanded media rights contract due to their membership in the NCAA. They aren't going to be able to simply say "OK we're out" and set up their own TV deal and leave CBS/Turner hanging. I am pretty sure the P5 goal, one that I think the BE agrees with BTW, is to increase the number of at large bids and tweak the win share formula to benefit them. I think everyone is stuck with the NCAA contract for the next 10 years.

BTW, 80% of the NCAA's revenue goes to conduct D1 championships and to fund distributions back to D1 based on conference performance in basketball (win shares.)  Only about 5% of the revenue is used to conduct D2 and D3 championships.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 09:26:52 AM by Sultan Sultanberger »
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brewcity77

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #58 on: September 06, 2022, 10:26:36 AM »
First, their largest interest lies in Brew's observation that 60 teams aren't enough to stage a championship that will generate large media rights.  They might not want to, but bringing along an extra 70 or so teams is a necessary cost associated with getting a multibillion-dollar media rights package for their basketball tournament.  In other words, if you don't allow the sunbelt along for the ride, you're not getting your increased payday.

If they break away, they will be benefited by having viable programs. Cutting out the Villanova and Gonzaga types in favor of Akron and Georgia State is ludicrous. They'll more likely get rid of auto bids knowing that the addition of 27 at-large bids will primarily go to them, while allowing everyone else in to keep the tournament viewed as legitimate. Why on god's green earth would they bring 70 extra teams when all they have to do is hand out 15-20 bids to non-P5 schools instead of the 30-35 they do now?
When asked how he felt about Marquette being picked to finish ninth in the Big East, Tyler Kolek only had two words:
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TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #59 on: September 06, 2022, 11:23:15 AM »
Wouldn’t the Big East schools be more attractive to the P5 football schools? They could help the basketball product without any impact to the football money, which is what everyone cares about.

Isn’t part of the reason for the desire to split because the P5 football schools don’t want to share with the Sun Belt? Look at how the non-P5 schools get treated in playoff rankings. Unless it’s overwhelmingly obvious, they aren’t getting in.

This is exactly the issue with Equalizer's suggestion. The Big East is much more valuable than the Sun Belt. It's not even close. There's no world where the Sun Belt gets taken but the Big East gets left out.

If there is a split, there will be around 50-70 football teams and 120-150 basketball teams that make the cut. You need 120+ basketball teams for a successful basketball league. You don't need nearly that many for a successful football league. The 50-70 football schools that break off will fill their basketball league with basketball only leagues that they don't have to share their football money with or programs that will either drop football or keep their football in whatever Division 2 nonsense is left in the NCAA but put their basketball in the new league, that the P5 again won't need to share their football money with.

The idea that the p5/P3/P2.5/P2 is going to share their football money with the Sun Belt and Conference USA when they could keep it all and bring in better basketball leagues  is absurd.
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MU82

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #60 on: September 06, 2022, 11:32:31 AM »
The idea that the p5/P3/P2.5/P2 is going to share their football money with the Sun Belt and Conference USA when they could keep it all and bring in better basketball leagues  is absurd.

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The Equalizer

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #61 on: September 06, 2022, 11:45:55 AM »
Quote from: brewcity77 link=topic=63559.msg1467149#msg1467149 date=
If they break away, they will be benefited by having viable programs. Cutting out the Villanova and Gonzaga types in favor of Akron and Georgia State is ludicrous. They'll more likely get rid of auto bids knowing that the addition of 27 at-large bids will primarily go to them, while allowing everyone else in to keep the tournament viewed as legitimate.
Why on god's green earth would they bring 70 extra teams when all they have to do is hand out 15-20 bids to non-P5 schools instead of the 30-35 they do now?

I think you continue to miss the point that the whole purpose behind a breakaway exercise is that the current NCAA media rights are capped at a level severely under current market value. A new contract could perhaps double revenue, but that requires schools to leave the NCAA and form a new association.

In other words, the issue isn't coming up with new ways to split the existing pie--it's that there's an opportunity for a massive increase in the size of the pie, and the only way you get access to that pie is to leave the NCAA.

The fact that the new, larger pie will have fewer slices is a side benefit. 


TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #62 on: September 06, 2022, 12:48:00 PM »
I think you continue to miss the point that the whole purpose behind a breakaway exercise is that the current NCAA media rights are capped at a level severely under current market value. A new contract could perhaps double revenue, but that requires schools to leave the NCAA and form a new association.

In other words, the issue isn't coming up with new ways to split the existing pie--it's that there's an opportunity for a massive increase in the size of the pie, and the only way you get access to that pie is to leave the NCAA.

The fact that the new, larger pie will have fewer slices is a side benefit.

But if they leave the NCAA, what possible motivation would they have of bringing the Sun Belt with them over the Big East?
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Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #63 on: September 06, 2022, 01:11:48 PM »
I think you continue to miss the point that the whole purpose behind a breakaway exercise is that the current NCAA media rights are capped at a level severely under current market value. A new contract could perhaps double revenue, but that requires schools to leave the NCAA and form a new association.


You are again ignoring the fact that this may not exactly be legally easy to do with the NCAA being a membership organization.
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The Equalizer

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2022, 01:35:39 PM »
Quote from: TAMU Eagle link=topic=63559.msg1467173#msg1467173 date=
But if they leave the NCAA, what possible motivation would they have of bringing the Sun Belt with them over the Big East?

The Sun Belt provides buy game opponents in both football and basketball.

The Big East can only provide basketball, and there is no indication they'd be happy as a buy-game opponent.


brewcity77

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #65 on: September 06, 2022, 01:36:48 PM »
I think you continue to miss the point that the whole purpose behind a breakaway exercise is that the current NCAA media rights are capped at a level severely under current market value. A new contract could perhaps double revenue, but that requires schools to leave the NCAA and form a new association.

No, I just don't think that point is particularly salient. For numerous reasons discussed ad nauseum in the past, it's a straw man argument with little grounding in reality.

It would be far more likely if they broke off that only 2-5 leagues would break away, start a tournament, then invite who they chose to fill it out. And they sure as hell aren't choosing Georgia State over Villanova. Because whatever they might be, they aren't stupid. And proposing automatic inclusion for the MAC, Sun Belt, and even American members over the Big East and juggernauts like Gonzaga is stupid.

And in terms of the long game, they can consolidate a lot more by waiting out this current deal and then deciding on the future in 2032 than by trying to make a move now that includes the dregs of FBS.
When asked how he felt about Marquette being picked to finish ninth in the Big East, Tyler Kolek only had two words:
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The Equalizer

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #66 on: September 06, 2022, 01:53:49 PM »
Quote from: Sultan Sultanberger link=topic=63559.msg1467176#msg1467176 date=

You are again ignoring the fact that this may not exactly be legally easy to do with the NCAA being a membership organization.

Actually, it appears to be very easy.  You can review the handbook yourself, but I don't see any reference to an exit fee, waiting period, advance notice.  In fact, if a school simply stopped paying it's $1800/year dues, ($900 for a conference), t's departure would be automatic.

20.2.5.3 Failure to Pay Dues. If an active member fails to pay its annual dues for one year, its membership shall be
automatically terminated.
https://web3.ncaa.org/lsdbi/reports/getReport/90008


TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #67 on: September 06, 2022, 02:07:43 PM »
The Sun Belt provides buy game opponents in both football and basketball.

The Big East can only provide basketball, and there is no indication they'd be happy as a buy-game opponent.

Why do they need 61-81 buy game opponents in football?

To answer my own question, they don't.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 02:18:37 PM by TAMU Eagle »
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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #68 on: September 06, 2022, 02:30:01 PM »
Nebraska was one of the bluest of blue bloods in Football ( never helped it’s basketball though). Sustained excellence for 4 decades .

Had an incredible stretch run with Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne that lasted from 1962 to 1997. Multiple National Titles , Almost every year in a top 4 bowl , numerous Heisman , multiple All Americans and high draft choices . Rabid fan base .

They made the mistake of firing Frank Solich , who was doing a solid job in the post Osborne era but made the faux pas of having one .500 season . After Solich  the program lost its momentum , kept changing out mediocre coaches , and now is arguably one of the worst in The Big Ten .

I don’t think there are many people in Nebraska fandom that believe the program can get back to its prior glory.

Will be interesting to see what happens to Duke post Coach K. They had a nice history before him but nothing spectacular . Wonder if their future is likenNebraska football

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Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #69 on: September 06, 2022, 02:35:22 PM »
Actually, it appears to be very easy.  You can review the handbook yourself, but I don't see any reference to an exit fee, waiting period, advance notice.  In fact, if a school simply stopped paying it's $1800/year dues, ($900 for a conference), t's departure would be automatic.

20.2.5.3 Failure to Pay Dues. If an active member fails to pay its annual dues for one year, its membership shall be
automatically terminated.
https://web3.ncaa.org/lsdbi/reports/getReport/90008


That's not my point. My point is that CBS/Turner isn't going to sit back and just allow its contract with the NCAA to be watered down while the cream of D1 goes ahead and sets up its own tournament.
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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #70 on: September 06, 2022, 02:44:44 PM »
Nebraska was one of the bluest of blue bloods in Football ( never helped it’s basketball though). Sustained excellence for 4 decades .

Had an incredible stretch run with Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne that lasted from 1962 to 1997. Multiple National Titles , Almost every year in a top 4 bowl , numerous Heisman , multiple All Americans and high draft choices . Rabid fan base .

They made the mistake of firing Frank Solich , who was doing a solid job in the post Osborne era but made the faux pas of having one .500 season . After Solich  the program lost its momentum , kept changing out mediocre coaches , and now is arguably one of the worst in The Big Ten .

I don’t think there are many people in Nebraska fandom that believe the program can get back to its prior glory.

Will be interesting to see what happens to Duke post Coach K. They had a nice history before him but nothing spectacular . Wonder if their future is likenNebraska football

Man, you need to read some Nebraska football forums 😂
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The Equalizer

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #71 on: September 06, 2022, 03:35:06 PM »
Quote from: TAMU Eagle link=topic=63559.msg1467185#msg1467185 date=
Why do they need 61-81 buy game opponents in football?

To answer my own question, they don't.

You didn't actually run numbers did you? 

Say 64 total "p2/4/5" teams that each would regularly need two buy-game opponents.  Demand, therefore is for 128 total games needed.

Then, let's say that each team in your non P2/4/5 can supply play two buy games per year each.  Supply is from the Sun Belt (14 teams), Mountain West (12 teams) MAC (12 teams), American (11 teams), CUSA (11 teams), etc, is willing to play 2 buy games per year. (60 teams --> 120 games).

So, yes, you do need more teams than you think.

Furthermore, in your overall organization, you needs enough teams to support your revenue generating post-season activity:

Football:  130 teams currently support 43 bowl games
Basketball: 130 teams can effectively support a 64 team single-elimination tournament, addressing all concerrns about it not being a legitimate tournament, or that you would have to dilute quality to build the field.

The roughly 130 FBS teams are already affiliated with each other, appears to be rightly sized to meet basic scheduling requirements, and would yelid an appropiately sized organziation for an effective basketball tournament.

The argument in favor of adding the Big East, Gonzaga, etc. to this organization is that they're good today.
The arguments against is that a) they introduce "basketball only" menbers, which has traditionally caused conflicts and b) the Big East collectively would probably not bring in incremental revenue in excess of what you would wind up paying them. 

TAMU, the Wizard of MU Basketball

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #72 on: September 06, 2022, 04:00:48 PM »
You didn't actually run numbers did you? 

Say 64 total "p2/4/5" teams that each would regularly need two buy-game opponents.  Demand, therefore is for 128 total games needed.

Then, let's say that each team in your non P2/4/5 can supply play two buy games per year each.  Supply is from the Sun Belt (14 teams), Mountain West (12 teams) MAC (12 teams), American (11 teams), CUSA (11 teams), etc, is willing to play 2 buy games per year. (60 teams --> 120 games).

So, yes, you do need more teams than you think.

Furthermore, in your overall organization, you needs enough teams to support your revenue generating post-season activity:

Football:  130 teams currently support 43 bowl games
Basketball: 130 teams can effectively support a 64 team single-elimination tournament, addressing all concerrns about it not being a legitimate tournament, or that you would have to dilute quality to build the field.

The roughly 130 FBS teams are already affiliated with each other, appears to be rightly sized to meet basic scheduling requirements, and would yelid an appropiately sized organziation for an effective basketball tournament.

The argument in favor of adding the Big East, Gonzaga, etc. to this organization is that they're good today.
The arguments against is that a) they introduce "basketball only" menbers, which has traditionally caused conflicts and b) the Big East collectively would probably not bring in incremental revenue in excess of what you would wind up paying them.

They need exactly 0 buy games. That's the problem with your math. You are thinking in an NCAA paradigm. If they leave the NCAA, there is a negative value to them scheduling buy games. They make exponentially more filling their schedules with games against other teams within the 50-70 teams that break off. And even if they want to schedule a few buy games, they can schedule them against the teams they left behind without offering them a slice of the pie. Just like they schedule games against FCS, Division 2, 3, and NAIA teams now.

You only need 50-70 teams to make a successful college football league. You need 120-150 to make a successful college basketball league due to March Madness being the main driver. That difference of 50-100 teams is not going to be populated by Louisiana-Monroe and Troy over teams like Villanova and Marquette.

You made a more convincing argument when you were stating that the P5 were going to break off and reduce March Madness to 32 teams or less. This is just pure absurdity.
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dgies9156

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Re: Blue Blood
« Reply #73 on: September 06, 2022, 04:24:18 PM »
One of the big differences between football and basketball is the number of teams that can make a run and end up in the elite of the sport in any given year.

In football, not even much vaunted Notre Dame has an easy time of it. Sure, the attraction of the Domers gets them into the Final Four of the FBS, but does anyone objectively believe Notre Dame is in the same league with Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Ohio State? There's probably less than a dozen true football schools really capable of consistently being in the Top 4 or 6 of college football.

Heck, the day UCF or Cincinnati "really" competes for an NCAA championship berth will be the day the sky falls in!

By contrast, schools like Villanova, Gonzaga, Loyola and Butler are legitimate candidates in any given year to be in the Final Four. Heck, in 2003, one great player and four very good ones got us within breathing room of a Natty (yeah, I know, Kansas killed us but...). In any given year, a series of good recruits could lead to something special for someone we've never heard of before.

That's why basketball can't exist without an expanded Power -- whatever.