Minutes Distribution Guesses?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Now that the roster is likely set, what are we thinking for minutes next season? Here's my best guess:

1: Kolek 26 S Jones 10, Mitchell 4
2: Mitchell 13, K Jones 13, Ellis 14
3: OMax 12, Joplin 15, K Jones 13
4: Wrightsil 22, OMax 18
5: Oso 23 Gold 12 Itejere 5
Redshirt: Ross

Totals:
OMax 30
Kolek 26
K Jones 26
Oso 23
Wrightsil 22
Mitchell 17
Joplin 15
Ellis 14
Gold 12
S Jones 10
Itejere 5
Ross 0

Kolek, Mitchel, OMax, Wrightsil, and Oso start with Kam playing his role of super sub off the bench. Mitchell/Ellis can pair up to be second PGs when Kolek is in allowing him to play off the ball some, diversifying the offense a bit.

[wadesworld]

Now that the roster is likely set, what are we thinking for minutes next season? Here's my best guess:

1: Kolek 26 S Jones 10, Mitchell 4
2: Mitchell 13, K Jones 13, Ellis 14
3: OMax 12, Joplin 15, K Jones 13
4: Wrightsil 22, OMax 18
5: Oso 23 Gold 12 Itejere 5
Redshirt: Ross

Totals:
OMax 30
Kolek 26
K Jones 26
Oso 23
Wrightsil 22
Mitchell 17
Joplin 15
Ellis 14
Gold 12
S Jones 10
Itejere 5
Ross 0

Kolek, Mitchel, OMax, Wrightsil, and Oso start with Kam playing his role of super sub off the bench. Mitchell/Ellis can pair up to be second PGs when Kolek is in allowing him to play off the ball some, diversifying the offense a bit.

OMax 29
Oso 26
Wrightsil 25
Kolek 23
Joplin 22
K Jones 21
Mitchell 21
S Jones 19
Ellis 5
Itejere 5
Gold 2
Ross 2

Don't like it.

[Markusquette]

Who can we rely on to be a go to scorer? O-Max?

[Otule's Glass Eye]

K. Jones: 32
OMax: 28
Wrightsil: 26
Oso: 25
Mitchell: 20
Joplin: 18
Kolek: 17
Ellis: 12
S. Jones: 8
Itejere: 7
Gold: 7
Ross: 0 (redshirt)

[genious expert]

Who can we rely on to be a go to scorer? O-Max?

Kam Jones imo

[Dr. Blackheart]

1. Sean (18), Mitchell (12), Kolek (5), Ellis (5).
2.  Kolek (18), Kam (15), Ellis (7).
3.  OMax (30), Kam (5), Chase (5)
4. Joplin (20), Gold (12), Wrightsil (8).
5.  Wrighsil (18), Oso (18), Itejere (4).

OMax: 30
Wrightsil: 26
Kolek: 23
Kam:20
Joplin: 20
Sean:18
Oso: 18
Mitchell:12
Ellis: 12
Gold: 12
Chase: 5
Itejere:4

[SaveOD238]

I don't have the time or brain power to figure out actual minutes played.  But this is what I do know:

• Kolek will lead the team in minutes, but will play less 1 and more 2
• OMax and Wrightsil will compete for the minutes lead.  All three should be around 30 MPG
• Stevie (10.9), Oso (18.2), and Kam (18.5) should all see jumps of roughly 30%
• the rest should work itself out.  I'm not getting too hyped about freshmen

[brewcity77]

Here are my guesses:

• Point Guard: Sean Jones 20, Tyler Kolek 10, Emarion Ellis 10
  
• Shooting Guard: Tyler Kolek 18, Stevie Mitchell 15, Kam Jones 7
  
• Small Forward: Kam Jones 18, David Joplin 12, Zach Wrightsil 10
  
• Power Forward: O-Max Prosper 30, Zach Wrightsil 5, Ben Gold 5
  
• Center: Oso Ighodaro 30, Ben Gold 5, Keeyan Itejere 5

O-Max Prosper: 30
Oso Ighodaro: 30
Tyler Kolek: 28
Kam Jones: 25
Sean Jones: 20
Zach Wrightsil: 15
Stevie Mitchell: 15
David Joplin: 12
Emarion Ellis: 10
Ben Gold: 10
Keeyan Itejere: 5
Chase Ross: Redshirt

My hope would be that by tourney time, the Wrightsil/Mitchell/Joplin/Ellis/Gold group is down to just 2-3 guys getting regular bench minutes. No need to go 10 deep once postseason play starts.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Really hope Jop can improve defensively because we're absolutely going to need his scoring and if he can't stay on the floor that will be a problem. 

[GoldenEagles03]

Here are my guesses:

• Point Guard: Sean Jones 20, Tyler Kolek 10, Emarion Ellis 10
  
• Shooting Guard: Tyler Kolek 18, Stevie Mitchell 15, Kam Jones 7
  
• Small Forward: Kam Jones 18, David Joplin 12, Zach Wrightsil 10
  
• Power Forward: O-Max Prosper 30, Zach Wrightsil 5, Ben Gold 5
  
• Center: Oso Ighodaro 30, Ben Gold 5, Keeyan Itejere 5

O-Max Prosper: 30
Oso Ighodaro: 30
Tyler Kolek: 28
Kam Jones: 25
Sean Jones: 20
Zach Wrightsil: 15
Stevie Mitchell: 15
David Joplin: 12
Emarion Ellis: 10
Ben Gold: 10
Keeyan Itejere: 5
Chase Ross: Redshirt

My hope would be that by tourney time, the Wrightsil/Mitchell/Joplin/Ellis/Gold group is down to just 2-3 guys getting regular bench minutes. No need to go 10 deep once postseason play starts.

I don't think Oso is capable of 30 minutes in Big East play. I'd say he'll still be around 20.  I think Wrightsil and Joplin will get close to 20. Chase Ross I think gets the Stevie role from last year. He can really defend and is more of an athlete and shooter than Stevie too.

[Jockey]

Who can we rely on to be a go to scorer? O-Max?

I think Kam gets 14-15 ppg.

OMax, Oso, Wrightsil, Joplin, Kolek all in the 8-10 range.

[Lennys Tap]

OMax 29
Oso 26
Wrightsil 25
Kolek 23
Joplin 22
K Jones 21
Mitchell 21
S Jones 19
Ellis 5
Itejere 5
Gold 2
Ross 2

Don't like it.

Wades

Your assessment (at this point in time) is fair but I don’t think (in the end) that the playing time will be so equal for the top 8. Some player(s) (hopefully) will step up and separate themselves from the pack.

[bilsu]

Why do you think Ross will redshirt? He is supposed to be athletic and a good defender. I think he plays 10 minutes a game.

[brewcity77]

Why do you think Ross will redshirt? He is supposed to be athletic and a good defender. I think he plays 10 minutes a game.

Personally, I hate the idea of anyone playing 10 mpg. 7-8 man rotation, tops.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Just hoping Mitchell takes a jump or Sean Jones is a diamond in the rough, cause Kolek shooting 32% from the field and 28% from 3 last year was no bueno. Good playmaker but those percentages are terrible.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Why do you think Ross will redshirt? He is supposed to be athletic and a good defender. I think he plays 10 minutes a game.

We don't need 11 players so I think someone redshirt. I don't see any of the returners redshirtting and I think Gold and Jones' skillets are more needed whereas we have more depth at Ross' role. Would love if Ross was good enough to demand playing time

[wadesworld]

Wades

Your assessment (at this point in time) is fair but I don’t think (in the end) that the playing time will be so equal for the top 8. Some player(s) (hopefully) will step up and separate themselves from the pack.

Probably not as evenly distributed between the top 8, but last year we had 8 players over 17 mpg and then Stevie at 10 and everyone else below that. The way I think we’ll need to play to succeed will be similar to last year, (ball pressure, foul court press, turn teams over) which requires a lot of energy and effort. I don’t think players will be able to be effective much more than 28 mpg and I think we’ll need at least 8 guys at 15+ mpg.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Probably not as evenly distributed between the top 8, but last year we had 8 players over 17 mpg and then Stevie at 10 and everyone else below that. The way I think we’ll need to play to succeed will be similar to last year, (ball pressure, foul court press, turn teams over) which requires a lot of energy and effort. I don’t think players will be able to be effective much more than 28 mpg and I think we’ll need at least 8 guys at 15+ mpg.

Agree. I am thinking hockey shifts

[Dr. Blackheart]

We don't need 11 players so I think someone redshirt. I don't see any of the returners redshirtting and I think Gold and Jones' skillets are more needed whereas we have more depth at Ross' role. Would love if Ross was good enough to demand playing time

Why skillet when you can smoke?

[Herman Cain]

Starters

Tyler
Kam
Stevie
OMax
Oso

Rotation

Wrightsil
Joplin
Keeyan
EE

Freshman
1 of 3 will emerge in the rotation early
A second will get minutes later in season
A third will redshirt
Too early to know about them

[nyg]

Starters

Tyler
Kam
Stevie
OMax
Oso

Rotation

Wrightsil
Joplin
Keeyan
EE

Freshman
1 of 3 will emerge in the rotation early
A second will get minutes later in season
A third will redshirt
Too early to know about them

Your starting five with Mitchell in it, will get slaughtered on the boards. Insert Joplin/transfer in his place and maybe have a chance.

Where are Sean Jones, Gold and Chase Ross?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Your starting five with Mitchell in it, will get slaughtered on the boards. Insert Joplin/transfer in his place and maybe have a chance.

Where are Sean Jones, Gold and Chase Ross?

We will always be bad on the boards as long as Shaka is coach. You are right about HC's proposed starting lineup, but just prepare yourself for that to always be weakness in our game under Shaka.

HC explained where the freshmen will fall at the bottom of his post.

[nyg]

We will always be bad on the boards as long as Shaka is coach. You are right about HC's proposed starting lineup, but just prepare yourself for that to always be weakness in our game under Shaka.

HC explained where the freshmen will fall at the bottom of his post.

OK, missed that, Hermie was talking in generalization terms. 

[JTJ3]

Kolek 28
Mitchell 20
Joplin 24
Omax 28
Oso 24

Kam 24
Wrightsill 20
Sean Jones 16
Ross/Ellis 8
Gold/Itetjere 8

I think Kam plays a ton but Stevie starts to set a tone defensively.  Wrightsill ends up playing a lot of small ball 5 (kinda reminds me of Christian Bishop).  I might be conservative on the 4 freshman but like everyone else I have no idea how ready they really are.

[bilsu]

Last year minutes per game in bracket. Some players did not play every game.

Prior to Big East season

Kolek (29.2)    30
Prosper (20.7) 25
Jones (18.5)    23
Oso  (18.2)     26
Mitchell (10.8) 16
Joplin (7.1)      10
Ellis (6.1)         10
Newcomers
Wrightsill        20
Gold               12
Ross               12
Jones             10
Iterjie              6

When Big East starts the rotation will get smaller.  I would guess three of the newcomers will fall out of rotation.

[brewcity77]

We will always be bad on the boards as long as Shaka is coach. You are right about HC's proposed starting lineup, but just prepare yourself for that to always be weakness in our game under Shaka.

HC explained where the freshmen will fall at the bottom of his post.

I think that might be an overstatement. We were definitely terrible last year, but I do think it was something of a negative outlier.

Our #325 offensive rebounding rank was the worst of Shaka's career by more than 100 spots. His 12-year average coming into Marquette was 131.8. It's not great, but if we can regularly be in the top-200 (which 9 of his 12 teams were, none worse than #218), we'll be fine.

Our #314 defensive rebounding rank was not the worst (#330 in 2020) but his 12-year average coming in was 237.6, so less encouraging but certainly better than we were. In looking for some sense of encouragement, I did note that of his seven sub-250 defensive rebounding seasons (including this past year), five of them came in his first three years at a job. So maybe some reason to think with time it will get better (though that #330 did come in year 5 at Texas, so maybe it's just trying to find a positive pattern that doesn't really exist).

[MarquetteDano]

Hate to be a negativo, but those minute breakdowns... are a bit depressing. Really hope another transfer is coming.

[#UnleashSean]

Last year minutes per game in bracket. Some players did not play every game.

Prior to Big East season

Kolek (29.2)    30
Prosper (20.7) 25
Jones (18.5)    23
Oso  (18.2)     26
Mitchell (10.8) 16
Joplin (7.1)      10
Ellis (6.1)         10
Newcomers
Wrightsill        20
Gold               12
Ross               12
Jones             10
Iterjie              6

When Big East starts the rotation will get smaller.  I would guess three of the newcomers will fall out of rotation.

This has got it. People thinking our starters from last year will somehow get less minutes with Lewis and Morsell gone are absurd.

[BCHoopster]

No way, the rotation will go 8-9 deep once the Big East season starts. Not playing 12 kids. 

[GoldenEagles03]

No way, the rotation will go 8-9 deep once the Big East season starts. Not playing 12 kids.

Ideally I think it looks something like (Give or take 5 minutes from each)

S. Jones- 20 minutes
Kolek- 25 minutes
OMax- 30 minutes
Joplin 20 minutes
Oso- 25 minutes

Gold- 15 minutes
K. Jones- 25 minutes
Mitchell- 20 minutes
Wrightsil- 20 minutes

With minutes sprinkled for Itejere, Ross, Ellis as needed.

I do think scoring is a bigger ? than rebounding right now honestly. Rebounding is half effort half right place right time. The size is there to rebound and the additions of Sean Jones, Chase Ross and possible increased playing time for Stevie and Emarion adds a little quickness to be able to track down the longer rebounds. They also have athletes like Oso, OMax, and Itejere to go get boards and guys like Gold, Wrightsil, Joplin who probably rely more on positioning and getting themselves in the right spots to rebound. I think it's a nice mix up front.

[lawdog77]

Looked this thread up because of the debate about bringing in someone over the core, so for S&G, I looked up the actual numbers to see how people fared. For disclosure, I didn't post my guess, but I would have been way off:

Kolek: 32
Oso: 31
Kam: 30
Omax: 29
Stevie: 23
Jop: 19
Chase: 16
Sean: 12
Ben: 8

[GoldenEagles03]

Looked this thread up because of the debate about bringing in someone over the core, so for S&G, I looked up the actual numbers to see how people fared. For disclosure, I didn't post my guess, but I would have been way off:

Kolek: 32
Oso: 31
Kam: 30
Omax: 29
Stevie: 23
Jop: 19
Chase: 16
Sean: 12
Ben: 8

I think most everyones guesses are going to be off due to Wrightsil being a non factor.

My personal biggest miss was having Sean getting big minutes and Ross getting nothing.  I had them flip flopped. Chase Ross was the biggest surprise of the season to me.

[brewcity77]

I think most everyones guesses are going to be off due to Wrightsil being a non factor.

My personal biggest miss was having Sean getting big minutes and Ross getting nothing.  I had them flip flopped. Chase Ross was the biggest surprise of the season to me.

I missed that, actually had Ross redshirting. My other big miss was Stevie. I thought he would be a role-player, instead he was one of our most important starters.

[Lennys Tap]

I missed that, actually had Ross redshirting. My other big miss was Stevie. I thought he would be a role-player, instead he was one of our most important starters.

If by “one of our most important starters” you mean our 5th most important starter, yes.

[GoldenEagles03]

If by “one of our most important starters” you mean our 5th most important starter, yes.

But it was Stevie that was the link to being the best lineup in College Basketball.

Marquette had many of the "Top Lineups" in the Country, but the one with the 5 starters was THEE best.

[PointWarrior]

I missed that, actually had Ross redshirting. My other big miss was Stevie. I thought he would be a role-player, instead he was one of our most important starters.

cause so many high level recruits redshirt?

[brewcity77]

If by “one of our most important starters” you mean our 5th most important starter, yes.

I don't. Stevie was as integral to our top lineup as Kam or O-Max. He brought energy, was the best ballhawk on a defense built on turnovers, and did all the little things on offense that allowed everyone to be better. Just because he didn't score the most points doesn't mean his overall impact wasn't immense.

cause so many high level recruits redshirt?

Itejere did. He was ranked #202 in his class and there was a difficult path to minutes. Ross was similarly ranked (#177) and looked to have a more difficult path to minutes.

[Lennys Tap]

I don't. Stevie was as integral to our top lineup as Kam or O-Max. He brought energy, was the best ballhawk on a defense built on turnovers, and did all the little things on offense that allowed everyone to be better. Just because he didn't score the most points doesn't mean his overall impact wasn't immense.

Shaka disagrees. He played Stevie 23 minutes per game, the other 4 starters played between 29 and 32. Joplin was actually closer in minutes per game to Mitchell than Stevie was to OMax or Kam.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Shaka disagrees. He played Stevie 23 minutes per game, the other 4 starters played between 29 and 32. Joplin was actually closer in minutes per game to Mitchell than Stevie was to OMax or Kam.

I'd like to know what Shaka was thinking at the start of the season on minutes? He brought Wrightsil, Oso and Tyler to NYC for Big East Media Day. No Kam, Stevie or OMax.

[Uncle Rico]

I'd like to know what Shaka was thinking at the start of the season on minutes? He brought Wrightsil, Oso and Tyler to NYC for Big East Media Day. No Kam, Stevie or OMax.

He was playing head games

[bilsu]

Looked this thread up because of the debate about bringing in someone over the core, so for S&G, I looked up the actual numbers to see how people fared. For disclosure, I didn't post my guess, but I would have been way off:

Kolek: 32
Oso: 31
Kam: 30
Omax: 29
Stevie: 23
Jop: 19
Chase: 16
Sean: 12
Ben: 8

I had Chase playing 12 minutes.
Biggest misses
Wrigtsil 20 injury
Eillis 10 injury
Iterje 6 just not good enough
Joplin 10 Joplin was better than I expected.