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Author Topic: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo  (Read 10562 times)

Skatastrophy

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Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« on: April 27, 2022, 09:31:33 AM »
China lockdowns are starting to severely hamper one of my client's ability to source goods.

The cities their factories are in are still fine, but the cities they source their component materials in are locked down delaying manufacturing & shipping by weeks+.

No information is available from the leadership of those companies or local government because China's federal government doesn't want them talking about any of this.

Inflation is going to get much worse in certain sectors before it gets better.

tower912

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2022, 09:50:47 AM »
Indeed.   Supply issues are going to continue for years.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Goose

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2022, 09:58:06 AM »
skatastrophy

I agree 100%. The lockdown in China is hampering the ability to manufacture all across China, not just in the lockdown cities. We have been able to help our clients navigate some of these issues, but it literally is a daily struggle. Last night we moved a handful of our staff to covid free city to allow them to begin working again. I believe that things might get very, very ugly on the supply chain side of things in the upcoming weeks.

jesmu84

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2022, 10:55:10 AM »
I think a take-away from the last 2 years is that the USA should focus on making stuff for ourselves.

Hopefully we can reverse the trend of sending so much overseas in the last 40 years.

4everwarriors

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2022, 11:24:46 AM »
Y due tink dat iz, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2022, 11:28:23 AM »
I think a take-away from the last 2 years is that the USA should focus on making stuff for ourselves.

Hopefully we can reverse the trend of sending so much overseas in the last 40 years.


I doubt a short term supply chain disruption is going to change forty years of economic forces pushing manufacturing to China.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

tower912

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2022, 11:35:05 AM »
It was pushed there because of lower labor costs and fewer environmental restrictions.   I am not sure the pendulum has swung so much that it would be easier to manufacture in the USA, particularly with the existing labor shortages.

However, if it was my company, I would be exploring South and Central America.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2022, 11:46:42 AM »
It was pushed there because of lower labor costs and fewer environmental restrictions.   I am not sure the pendulum has swung so much that it would be easier to manufacture in the USA, particularly with the existing labor shortages.

However, if it was my company, I would be exploring South and Central America.   

My client has been moving manufacturing to Africa.

I agree, though, that if the US is going to choose someone to manufacture goods for us  for cost-saving purposes it would benefit us to enrich some of our near-shore neighbors.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2022, 12:01:04 PM »
skatastrophy

I agree 100%. The lockdown in China is hampering the ability to manufacture all across China, not just in the lockdown cities. We have been able to help our clients navigate some of these issues, but it literally is a daily struggle. Last night we moved a handful of our staff to covid free city to allow them to begin working again. I believe that things might get very, very ugly on the supply chain side of things in the upcoming weeks.

Yup 100%

Goose

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2022, 12:32:24 PM »
skatastrophy

We have clients dipping their toe in Africa and that was on my schedule in 2020, pre pandemic. I think Africa is a long way from being a true supplier of goods and the usual products will be the first shipped in volume out of Africa. I believe clothing and shoes will lead the way and it still is going take time for these products to be made in volume needed for the USA.

The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2022, 12:34:20 PM »
It was pushed there because of lower labor costs and fewer environmental restrictions.   I am not sure the pendulum has swung so much that it would be easier to manufacture in the USA, particularly with the existing labor shortages.

However, if it was my company, I would be exploring South and Central America.   


Good point.  I should have simply said "overseas."
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Goose

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2022, 12:52:52 PM »
tower

I was just in NYC/CT the past two days working with a client, very famous US Brand, and the topic of Central and South America was discussed at length. Our main contact, VP of supply chain mgt, spent a couple of years trying to develop Latin America has a backup plan to China and he stated he does not believe Latin America is capable of being anything more than a third tier supplier to the USA market. He is one of the smart guys we deal with and has a long track record of developing supply chains in low cost countries and I trust him a great deal.

Sad, but true, China remains options 1, 2 and 3 for far too much of our needs. We field calls daily with companies wanting to move some production out of China and very few people are willing to put the time and money into developing new markets. I believe we are going to face a very turbulent time in the global economy and it has me concerned.

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2022, 02:21:51 PM »
Why is China locking down? It doesn’t work.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2022, 03:44:41 PM »
tower

I was just in NYC/CT the past two days working with a client, very famous US Brand, and the topic of Central and South America was discussed at length. Our main contact, VP of supply chain mgt, spent a couple of years trying to develop Latin America has a backup plan to China and he stated he does not believe Latin America is capable of being anything more than a third tier supplier to the USA market. He is one of the smart guys we deal with and has a long track record of developing supply chains in low cost countries and I trust him a great deal.

Sad, but true, China remains options 1, 2 and 3 for far too much of our needs. We field calls daily with companies wanting to move some production out of China and very few people are willing to put the time and money into developing new markets. I believe we are going to face a very turbulent time in the global economy and it has me concerned.

You were in my neighborhood!

I have a potential customer who is a major manufacturer of masks.  They are excited for us to make them aluminum wire samples and approve us for production.  Sounds like they were sourcing 70% of the wire from China and 30% from USA and they highlighted they want to convert the 70% to come from USA/Mexico.  Plus they were very happy because our aluminum raw material supplier is in Alabama.

I have a weekly corporate sales call and the China Plant Manager and the China Sales Person have been working from home.  They said things have been so strict in China that if they went into the manufacturing facility they would have to quarantine for 2 weeks just by entering the facility.  Apparently the people going in are the ones that live on the campus or in the neighborhood of the facility.  Crazy.

Goose

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2022, 03:52:14 PM »
MU Fan

Yeah, I was in NYC and Norwalk, CT. I was very surprised by how quiet it was in the city. It made me a little bit sad.

JWags85

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #15 on: April 27, 2022, 04:01:16 PM »
tower

I was just in NYC/CT the past two days working with a client, very famous US Brand, and the topic of Central and South America was discussed at length. Our main contact, VP of supply chain mgt, spent a couple of years trying to develop Latin America has a backup plan to China and he stated he does not believe Latin America is capable of being anything more than a third tier supplier to the USA market. He is one of the smart guys we deal with and has a long track record of developing supply chains in low cost countries and I trust him a great deal.

Sad, but true, China remains options 1, 2 and 3 for far too much of our needs. We field calls daily with companies wanting to move some production out of China and very few people are willing to put the time and money into developing new markets. I believe we are going to face a very turbulent time in the global economy and it has me concerned.

Yeah, one of my good friends is a consultant who has been neck deep in a company that shifted a lot of its production to Mexico, instead of China.  He said the costs ended up being only a 15-20% discount from domestic production and the corruption is awful and rampant.  The infrastructure is just not there, and the corruption isn't greasing a few palms, its beyond prohibitive at times.  They considered a few other Central American locations and Mexico is what had won out.  Despite the cost, they are already looking at moving production back to SE Asia.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2022, 04:44:39 PM »
Yeah, one of my good friends is a consultant who has been neck deep in a company that shifted a lot of its production to Mexico, instead of China.  He said the costs ended up being only a 15-20% discount from domestic production and the corruption is awful and rampant.  The infrastructure is just not there, and the corruption isn't greasing a few palms, its beyond prohibitive at times.  They considered a few other Central American locations and Mexico is what had won out.  Despite the cost, they are already looking at moving production back to SE Asia.

Monterrey?

JWags85

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2022, 05:04:56 PM »
Monterrey?

No, though it was considered.  In between Ciudad Juarez and Chihuahua

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2022, 05:13:35 PM »
No, though it was considered.  In between Ciudad Juarez and Chihuahua

heh, I'd say everything within a hundred miles of the border is going to be corrupt.

rocky_warrior

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2022, 05:24:38 PM »
heh, I'd say everything within a hundred miles of the border is going to be corrupt.

???

There's not much of Mexico that isn't corrupt.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #20 on: April 27, 2022, 05:44:11 PM »
???

There's not much of Mexico that isn't corrupt.

Yeah, varying degrees, but yeah.

Goose

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #21 on: April 27, 2022, 06:33:08 PM »
Wags

If Mexico was a viable option, we never would have gotten into bed with China. We ship a lot of goods to Mexico, but for assembly work. We were all set up to open operations in Mexico last year until we studied the business plan and saw limited chance for success.

reinko

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2022, 07:49:59 PM »
Whole lotta America First in this thread

forgetful

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #23 on: April 27, 2022, 10:43:27 PM »

I doubt a short term supply chain disruption is going to change forty years of economic forces pushing manufacturing to China.

It might be enough to get industry to finally automate a lot of stuff domestically.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2022, 09:06:43 AM »
skatastrophy

We have clients dipping their toe in Africa and that was on my schedule in 2020, pre pandemic. I think Africa is a long way from being a true supplier of goods and the usual products will be the first shipped in volume out of Africa. I believe clothing and shoes will lead the way and it still is going take time for these products to be made in volume needed for the USA.

Spot on, my client is in the cut & sew space.

Jockey

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2022, 09:48:34 AM »
tower

I was just in NYC/CT the past two days working with a client, very famous US Brand, and the topic of Central and South America was discussed at length. Our main contact, VP of supply chain mgt, spent a couple of years trying to develop Latin America has a backup plan to China and he stated he does not believe Latin America is capable of being anything more than a third tier supplier to the USA market. He is one of the smart guys we deal with and has a long track record of developing supply chains in low cost countries and I trust him a great deal.

Sad, but true, China remains options 1, 2 and 3 for far too much of our needs. We field calls daily with companies wanting to move some production out of China and very few people are willing to put the time and money into developing new markets. I believe we are going to face a very turbulent time in the global economy and it has me concerned.

My company was in Central America - Honduras and Costa Rica. They left about 6-7 years ago because costs were getting too high. Way cheaper to move everything to the Far East.

But even back then they were starting discussions on a possible future in Africa.

4everwarriors

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2022, 10:07:03 AM »
Yeah butt which kountry builds better bloomers, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

jesmu84

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2022, 10:13:27 AM »
Whole lotta America First in this thread

America first only applies if it benefits the capitalists

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #28 on: April 28, 2022, 10:41:25 AM »
You can really tell the people involved in international commerce and those not in this thread.


Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #29 on: April 28, 2022, 10:58:27 AM »
You can really tell the people involved in international commerce and those not in this thread.


lawdog77

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #30 on: April 28, 2022, 11:50:24 AM »
heh, I'd say everything within a hundred miles of the border is going to be corrupt.
Have people not watched Narcos:Mexico?

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #31 on: April 28, 2022, 11:51:55 AM »
Have people not watched Narcos:Mexico?

I didn't.  I stopped after Pablo died.  Felt like a good place to stop.  Is it worth continuing?

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #32 on: April 28, 2022, 12:03:59 PM »
I didn't.  I stopped after Pablo died.  Felt like a good place to stop.  Is it worth continuing?

Not really.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #33 on: May 14, 2022, 08:04:58 AM »
For you Chinese experts, thoughts on Xi getting reupped?  What was a sure thing a few months ago, seems to be at least in question now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/troubles-mount-china-ahead-xis-100011438.html

I was having dinner with my good Chinese friend last week and he indicated that all is not rosey with Xi  over the brutality of the lockdowns and resistance, the economy--especially the alienation with the West, and criticism for his support of Putin. He suggested Xi and Li Keqiang are at odds, and a face saving "health" exit may be in store (with some unfounded rumors swirling).

Uncle Rico

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #34 on: May 14, 2022, 08:08:25 AM »
For you Chinese experts, thoughts on Xi getting reupped?  What was a sure thing a few months ago, seems to be at least in question now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/troubles-mount-china-ahead-xis-100011438.html

I was having dinner with my good Chinese friend last week and he indicated that all is not rosey with Xi  over the brutality of the lockdowns and resistance, the economy--especially the alienation with the West, and criticism for his support of Putin. He suggested Xi and Li Keqiang are at odds, and a face saving "health" exit may be in store (with some unfounded rumors swirling).

Seems mostly speculative and not likely. 
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #35 on: May 14, 2022, 09:40:57 AM »
Seems mostly speculative and not likely.

As with anything with China, one is left to speculation. What's different to me is there is more internal smoke on this one.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/chinese-social-media-abuzz-with-rumours-of-xi-jinping-stepping-down-for-covid-19-mismanagement/amp_articleshow/91560750.cms

real chili 83

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #36 on: May 14, 2022, 09:57:00 AM »
For you Chinese experts, thoughts on Xi getting reupped?  What was a sure thing a few months ago, seems to be at least in question now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/troubles-mount-china-ahead-xis-100011438.html

I was having dinner with my good Chinese friend last week and he indicated that all is not rosey with Xi  over the brutality of the lockdowns and resistance, the economy--especially the alienation with the West, and criticism for his support of Putin. He suggested Xi and Li Keqiang are at odds, and a face saving "health" exit may be in store (with some unfounded rumors swirling).

Can you say that?  Isn’t that like saying “my good PR friend”? 

Uncle Rico

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #37 on: May 14, 2022, 09:59:48 AM »
As with anything with China, one is left to speculation. What's different to me is there is more internal smoke on this one.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/chinese-social-media-abuzz-with-rumours-of-xi-jinping-stepping-down-for-covid-19-mismanagement/amp_articleshow/91560750.cms

Interesting.  Thanks for that link.  Will be curious to watch this
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #38 on: May 14, 2022, 10:21:23 AM »
Can you say that?  Isn’t that like saying “my good PR friend”?

My good PR friend plies me with pork and rum. My good Chinese friend plies me with dumplings and Massagli. There seems to be a theme to curry the Dr's favor.

Goose

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #39 on: May 14, 2022, 10:23:41 AM »
Dr. B

If Xi stepped down that would be an amazing turn of events. He will not go down quietly, IMO.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #40 on: May 17, 2022, 09:32:46 AM »
Dr. B

If Xi stepped down that would be an amazing turn of events. He will not go down quietly, IMO.

Amazing how much we agree on about China.

JWags85

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #41 on: May 19, 2022, 12:11:43 PM »
Dr. B

If Xi stepped down that would be an amazing turn of events. He will not go down quietly, IMO.

The only way I see Xi ever "stepping down" would be some VERY severe health condition...which would be tied to him handpicking and shaping the successor to be his mirror.  He's there for the distance.

MU82

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #42 on: May 19, 2022, 01:33:37 PM »
The only way I see Xi ever "stepping down" would be some VERY severe health condition...which would be tied to him handpicking and shaping the successor to be his mirror.  He's there for the distance.

Agree, and that’s a big part of why it’s difficult for any US President to “win” a trade war against him. The US president faces reelection and/or term limit; Xi is in for the long haul and knows he can simply outlast his US rival.
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tower912

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #43 on: October 13, 2022, 06:30:32 PM »
My favorite neighborhood restaurant has been closed for 10 days as COVID has swept through the staff.    Deja vu all over again.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2022, 07:12:58 PM by tower912 »
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

4everwarriors

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #44 on: October 13, 2022, 07:26:17 PM »
Simple fix...find another restaurant, aina?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

tower912

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #45 on: October 13, 2022, 07:41:32 PM »
Nah.  I've known the owner for 20 years.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

tower912

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #46 on: December 20, 2022, 02:47:43 PM »
Maybe China should have kept their COVID restrictions in place.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #47 on: December 20, 2022, 03:53:43 PM »
Maybe China should have kept their COVID restrictions in place.

The blueprint that society decided works was out there.  China had every opportunity to vaccinate their population in the last almost three years.

They're skipping a very important step.

tower912

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #48 on: December 20, 2022, 04:01:14 PM »
Supply chain is going to get royally fouled up again.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #49 on: December 20, 2022, 04:13:48 PM »
Supply chain is going to get royally fouled up again.

A lot of companies have spent the last year trying to onshore (at least a portion) to prevent a repeat of 2020.  (I've quoted several.)  The latest China events will only hammer home and speed up the process.

tower912

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #50 on: December 20, 2022, 04:24:54 PM »
Yes.  That process isn't done yet.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #51 on: December 20, 2022, 09:41:42 PM »
Supply chain is going to get royally fouled up again.

Nah, China will say eff it and just make everyone go to work sick.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #52 on: December 21, 2022, 08:20:35 AM »
A lot of companies have spent the last year trying to onshore (at least a portion) to prevent a repeat of 2020.  (I've quoted several.)  The latest China events will only hammer home and speed up the process.

A lot of port traffic has moved from LA/LB to the East Coast as supply chains shift. It's hard to identify generational shifts while you're in the middle of one, but this feels like one. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #53 on: December 21, 2022, 11:33:07 AM »
The blueprint that society decided works was out there.  China had every opportunity to vaccinate their population in the last almost three years.

They're skipping a very important step.
This.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

pbiflyer

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #54 on: December 22, 2022, 10:38:55 PM »
A lot of companies have spent the last year trying to onshore (at least a portion) to prevent a repeat of 2020.  (I've quoted several.)  The latest China events will only hammer home and speed up the process.
Vietnam,India and Eastern Europe are considered onshore? Seems like many businesses are just moving their sources to other countries.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #55 on: December 23, 2022, 11:25:56 AM »
Vietnam,India and Eastern Europe are considered onshore? Seems like many businesses are just moving their sources to other countries.
Some are trying to diversify their supply chains that way, some are also moving portions back onshore.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Covid Economy 2, Electric Boogaloo
« Reply #56 on: December 23, 2022, 12:42:10 PM »
Some are trying to diversify their supply chains that way, some are also moving portions back onshore.

This exactly.  When I'm quoting these jobs, I always hear "We want to source at minimum 30% of our wire volume domestically to avoid logistic disruptions in the future."