Expectations - Feb. 28 Edition

[MU82]

The "Perspective" thread got me thinking (which is always dangerous) about the difference between season-long "perspective" and "expectations" for the rest of the season.

At this point, why would anybody establish his or her expectations for the rest of the season based on what he or she knew in October? This isn't the same team as the one that showed up for Madness. Every player has 28 games of experience and months of practice working together. We know what every single player can and can't do. We know how Shaka coaches. We've seen all the Big East teams, all the Top 25 teams and lots of other potential NCAAT opponents, so we can make reasonably intelligent comparisons.

Personally, my expectations have evolved as the season has gone along, and will continue to do so.

Going into the season, I thought we'd be lucky to barely be on the bubble. ... After the Illinois win and Charleston tourney, I thought, "Hmm, we just might have an NCAAT team." ... After the 1-5 stretch that included losses to Madison and our first 3 BEast opponents, I thought we probably weren't more than an NIT team. ... After the 7-2 stretch that included 2 wins over Nova and got us into the top 20, I thought we had a great shot at the Sweet 16 and an outside chance at the Final Four. ... Now that I've seen how opposing coaches have countered what we do best on both offense and defense in these last 7 games, I remain optimistic but I'm thinking that anything beyond Sweet 16 is highly unlikely; if we get an unfortunate UConn-ish matchup early in the NCAAs, 1-and-done is quite possible. ... And I'll adjust my expectations one more time after the BET.

Isn't that more logical on Feb. 28 than basing expectations for March on what we knew in October?

Now, if the question is, "How have we done based on your expectations going into the season," I'd give the team an A+ because they've already significantly exceeded my expectations. And they've done so playing an exciting brand of team-oriented basketball that I think bodes well for the future.

But I think that and current expectations for March are two separate things.

We have a ton of information now. Adjust expectations accordingly.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You are describing two different things that can both be described by the word "expectations". It's okay to have a pre-season set of expectations and use that as a measuring stick for whether the team over-achieved, under-achieved, or met expectations AND have expectations moving forward based on what we see during the season. It's also okay to have a set of expectations for the program that don't ever change. If you expect MU to make the NCAAT every year regardless of the roster because that's what you see as the appropriate cut off for a good season vs a bad season, that's okay.

[Shooter McGavin]

82,

Fair assessment and goes along with what my  expectations are currently.  Get the right matchups and this is a sweet sixteen team.  It all hinges on the team getting back to their  defensive identity and energy.  If they do that it could be a fun run in the Big East and NCAA tournaments.

Agree with Goose that it is a long season and that great run in the middle took some incredible energy and prolonged concentration.  That was/would have been hard to sustain the rest of the season.  Now it's time to pick it back up and hopefully that happens with two wins this week against beatable teams. 

[brewcity77]

I honestly don't know my expectations at this point. Get one win this week and I expect we land in the 4/5 game. I like our odds against Aikenless Seton Hall or Nembhardless Creighton, and we are a better team than Providence, if they even beat the winner of the 8/9 game. So a Big East Tourney final might be my expectation, but it won't kill me if they don't get it.

In the tourney, so much comes down to matchups. I could see us getting the right draw and making a second weekend, I could see us getting a bad first round matchup and faltering there.

Ultimately, I think my expectation, my one hope, is to win one NCAA game. Do that and everything else is gravy.

[Scoop Snoop]

I honestly don't know my expectations at this point. Get one win this week and I expect we land in the 4/5 game. I like our odds against Aikenless Seton Hall or Nembhardless Creighton, and we are a better team than Providence, if they even beat the winner of the 8/9 game. So a Big East Tourney final might be my expectation, but it won't kill me if they don't get it.

In the tourney, so much comes down to matchups. I could see us getting the right draw and making a second weekend, I could see us getting a bad first round matchup and faltering there.

Ultimately, I think my expectation, my one hope, is to win one NCAA game. Do that and everything else is gravy.

The bolded is where I am also.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

My only expectation is to play better.  Since the 2nd Nova win, this team has played down to their level of competition.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I honestly don't know my expectations at this point. Get one win this week and I expect we land in the 4/5 game. I like our odds against Aikenless Seton Hall or Nembhardless Creighton, and we are a better team than Providence, if they even beat the winner of the 8/9 game. So a Big East Tourney final might be my expectation, but it won't kill me if they don't get it.

In the tourney, so much comes down to matchups. I could see us getting the right draw and making a second weekend, I could see us getting a bad first round matchup and faltering there.

Ultimately, I think my expectation, my one hope, is to win one NCAA game. Do that and everything else is gravy.

Bold statement regarding Providence.  We certainly were a better team that night we pounded them, but there is basically nothing else about this season that states we're a better team.  They're 24-3 FFS.

[Herman Cain]

I had bullish expectations for the team going into the season. The team as whole met my expectations , as did the individual players and coaching staff. 

Going forward I believe we are capable of getting on another winning streak and going deep into the BET.

Fun to see the program with the dynamism it has
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[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Hoping to rattle off 3 in a row before taking our chances with Nova in the semis.

Wouldn't be shocked to see us go 1-1 this week though.

As for the NCAAs, so matchup dependent.  I think this team is plenty good enough to make a run to the 2nd weekend if things click.  We play like we've played the last several weeks, and its going to be a challenge to win a game in the tourney.

[MU82]

You are describing two different things that can both be described by the word "expectations". It's okay to have a pre-season set of expectations and use that as a measuring stick for whether the team over-achieved, under-achieved, or met expectations AND have expectations moving forward based on what we see during the season. It's also okay to have a set of expectations for the program that don't ever change. If you expect MU to make the NCAAT every year regardless of the roster because that's what you see as the appropriate cut off for a good season vs a bad season, that's okay.

I pretty much said the same thing, didn't I?

You amplified it in your last couple of sentences regarding basic expectations of the program overall, which I agree is very fair.

I honestly don't know my expectations at this point. Get one win this week and I expect we land in the 4/5 game. I like our odds against Aikenless Seton Hall or Nembhardless Creighton, and we are a better team than Providence, if they even beat the winner of the 8/9 game. So a Big East Tourney final might be my expectation, but it won't kill me if they don't get it.

In the tourney, so much comes down to matchups. I could see us getting the right draw and making a second weekend, I could see us getting a bad first round matchup and faltering there.

Ultimately, I think my expectation, my one hope, is to win one NCAA game. Do that and everything else is gravy.

We are in agreement on your overall thesis. I think it's A-OK (normal, even) to adjust expectations constantly. As for being better than The Provi ... I like to think Smart & Company are, but they have an effen rabbit's foot up their keisters and have won an awful lot of games.

[Galway Eagle]

Had zero expectations for a good year. The start changed that, December changed that as we fell to crap again, then January changed that and I believed, the. February changed that as we fell down to earth. So I'm expecting March to be another chance for my expectations to be sky high before we fall apart in April so people can have a sour face over a final four like 03

[MU82]

Had zero expectations for a good year. The start changed that, December changed that as we fell to crap again, then January changed that and I believed, the. February changed that as we fell down to earth. So I'm expecting March to be another chance for my expectations to be sky high before we fall apart in April so people can have a sour face over a final four like 03

I would be THRILLED to have a sour face brought about by an ending like 03.

It would suck in the moment ... but big picture, a Final Four run never sucks. And I'm guessing you agree with that, too.

[brewcity77]

Bold statement regarding Providence.  We certainly were a better team that night we pounded them, but there is basically nothing else about this season that states we're a better team.  They're 24-3 FFS.

Lucky sham of a team. Ripe for early exits from every March contest they play in. Not just a paper tiger, but a soaking wet crepe paper tiger.

[PGsHeroes32]

Hoping to rattle off 3 in a row before taking our chances with Nova in the semis.

Wouldn't be shocked to see us go 1-1 this week though.

As for the NCAAs, so matchup dependent.  I think this team is plenty good enough to make a run to the 2nd weekend if things click.  We play like we've played the last several weeks, and its going to be a challenge to win a game in the tourney.

If we win our next 3 games, we will not be playing Nova in the semis.

[Uncle Rico]

Natty or bust.  No cole like you clowns

[rocky_warrior]

Natty or bust.  No cole like you clowns

Sow you're on the SLAW side of COLE/SLAW (Shaka Leads Another Win)?

[Goose]

My expectations have definitely changed over the season and the last few games has not changed my opinion. First objective is to win opening NCAA game and then win as long as they can. I believe a first-round win will happen and if they play well, they can make some noise in the tourney. I might be the only on here not terribly disappointed in the performance the past few games. It is time regroup and get ready to play meaningful games in the upcoming weeks.

They played a tournament like schedule for five weeks and performed at a very high level and that is positive. I do not believe you can play two months straight of that intensity basketball. Based on how they performed against good competition this season I fully expect them to rise to the occasion again. I believe that MU fans have a better chance for upside surprise than downside the rest of the way.

[MU82]

My expectations have definitely changed over the season and the last few games has not changed my opinion. First objective is to win opening NCAA game and then win as long as they can. I believe a first-round win will happen and if they play well, they can make some noise in the tourney. I might be the only on here not terribly disappointed in the performance the past few games. It is time regroup and get ready to play meaningful games in the upcoming weeks.

They played a tournament like schedule for five weeks and performed at a very high level and that is positive. I do not believe you can play two months straight of that intensity basketball. Based on how they performed against good competition this season I fully expect them to rise to the occasion again. I believe that MU fans have a better chance for upside surprise than downside the rest of the way.

Goose, I also am not terribly disappointed in the performance the past few games.

I remain optimistic about NCAA tournament success, which to me matters more than Big East tourney success (not that I think the latter is impossible.) It's been a fun season so far. There's been the occasional frustration (a few of which you've shared), but it's been a successful season to be sure. Here's hoping the best is yet to come!

[Lennys Tap]

What's an expection?

[PointWarrior]

I expect to safely scoring more than the 50's for Shaka's tenure.

[MU82]

What's an expection?

I have no idea what you could possibly be referring to here!! 

[Scoop Snoop]

What's an expection?

An inspection done backwards. Not looking at something at all. I thought it was clear.

[Ardmore Mug]

I started the season feeling Shaka and the boys getting a 20 game winning season, along with Mid Big East finish and NCAA Tournament Bid, not a bubble team ! ! !     My updated expectations is win a game or 2 in BET and get to the Sweet 16, but of course with the given caveat of depending on seeding ! ! !     Lets GO WARRIORS ! ! !

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If we win our next 3 games, we will not be playing Nova in the semis.

Ahhh, yes PC.  Just had a brain lapse for second.  Easy to do so with Nova has been the 1 seed pretty much constantly since realignment.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lucky sham of a team. Ripe for early exits from every March contest they play in. Not just a paper tiger, but a soaking wet crepe paper tiger.

Hmmm.  Sounds personal.

They may not be 24-3 1st place in the BE good, but to say an 18-10 team that is 4.5 games back in the standings in the final week of the season is "better" is errrrrr....optimistic.