Expectations - Feb. 28 Edition

[Dr. Blackheart]

Win the BET

[Galway Eagle]

Hmmm.  Sounds personal.

They may not be 24-3 1st place in the BE good, but to say an 18-10 team that is 4.5 games back in the standings in the final week of the season is "better" is errrrrr....optimistic.

Well given we beat them by a million and a home court advantage is worth 4pts (they won by 2) it could be fair to say that matchup wise we're better on a neutral court. I'd also like to see their record if they had to play the tough games that never got rescheduled.

[lessthannick11]

Expectations are Dumb and Dangerous

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Hmmm.  Sounds personal.

They may not be 24-3 1st place in the BE good, but to say an 18-10 team that is 4.5 games back in the standings in the final week of the season is "better" is errrrrr....optimistic.

Normally I would agree with you but given that PC got to skip their road games at Creighton and Seton Hall, their home game against UConn, haven't played at Villanova yet, played Creighton without Nembhard , played at UConn without Sanogo (4 point win), DePaul without Freeman-Liberty (1 point OT win), Wisconsin without Johnny Davis (5 point win), and Northwestern without Audige (5 point win)...they are a special case. There's a reason they are ranked behind us in Kenpom and they're being seed as a 3/4 seed rather than a 1/2 like most 3 loss high major teams would be.

Of course, none of that is their fault, they can only play the teams in front of them and they won. But the horseshoe up their arse narrative is based on more than just sour grapes.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Normally I would agree with you but given that PC got to skip their road games at Creighton and Seton Hall, their home game against UConn, haven't played at Villanova yet, played Creighton without Nembhard , played at UConn without Sanogo (4 point win), DePaul without Freeman-Liberty (1 point OT win), Wisconsin without Johnny Davis (5 point win), and Northwestern without Audige (5 point win)...they are a special case. There's a reason they are ranked behind us in Kenpom and they're being seed as a 3/4 seed rather than a 1/2 like most 3 loss high major teams would be.

Of course, none of that is their fault, they can only play the teams in front of them and they won. But the horseshoe up their arse narrative is based on more than just sour grapes.

They've definitely been lucky.  Not denying that.  Just thought it was a bold statement. 

MU has had more than a break or two go their way as well. 

[BM1090]

Hmmm.  Sounds personal.

They may not be 24-3 1st place in the BE good, but to say an 18-10 team that is 4.5 games back in the standings in the final week of the season is "better" is errrrrr....optimistic.

They won the conference, they are great in close games due to composure, age, and luck. I think it might be a stretch to call MU a better team (although Kenpom agrees, MU 36, PC 39) but the teams are close.

PC will be a popular pick to lose in the first round but I doubt they will.

[Uncle Rico]

They won the conference, they are great in close games due to composure, age, and luck. I think it might be a stretch to call MU a better team (although Kenpom agrees, MU 36, PC 39) but the teams are close.

PC will be a popular pick to lose in the first round but I doubt they will.

The Dence is hanging a banner.  I'm a KenPom fan.  I'd be fine watching Marquette "luck" their way into a Big East title, get a top 4 seed while being 39th in analytics. 

They've been a lucky team but they're also a champion.  If I'm a PU fan, I'll take the luck and title

[brewcity77]

They've definitely been lucky.  Not denying that.  Just thought it was a bold statement. 

MU has had more than a break or two go their way as well.

I see them as maybe the 5th or 6th best team in the league. Villanova, UConn, Seton Hall, Marquette all better teams. They're in that group with Creighton and Xavier in terms of quality. Missing players, cancelled games, and winning all the coin flips is insane luck.

[tower912]

Being as old as they are aids the 'luck' factor.   They never seem to panic. 

[brewcity77]

Being as old as they are aids the 'luck' factor.   They never seem to panic.

Penn State, Seton Hall, and Florida are top-25 in Experience, but sub-200 in luck. Plenty of experienced teams haven't been lucky.

And the next prominent lucky team is Wisconsin, who is 283rd in experience. Creighton and VCU are also top-20 in luck and sub-200 in experience.

Luck is luck. What Providence has is luck. They happen to be both experienced and lucky, but that one example does not mean there is any correlation between experience and luck. They are two completely independent variables.

[panda]

They've proven themselves to be more than capable in tight games. That's a skill. Reeves rounding into form at the right time opens up a lot of different options for them on the floor. They're a different team when he's playing. Cooley is a great coach and the team is very comfortable with one another.

They don't have top talent, but with all of the above factors, they've deservedly won the conference and will be a tough out in single elimination games.

[jfp61]

Penn State, Seton Hall, and Florida are top-25 in Experience, but sub-200 in luck. Plenty of experienced teams haven't been lucky.

And the next prominent lucky team is Wisconsin, who is 283rd in experience. Creighton and VCU are also top-20 in luck and sub-200 in experience.

Luck is luck. What Providence has is luck. They happen to be both experienced and lucky, but that one example does not mean there is any correlation between experience and luck. They are two completely independent variables.

To add onto this. Luck isn't just KenPom, we win close games luck either. Luck includes  ShotQuality luck, and Threepoint and FT percentage variance luck which are massive factors in any given game. This is considered luck based because those shooting percentages are less controllable shooting percentages for a given defense than any other type of shot. Providence isn't just Kenpom lucky. They have the number one record luck on ShotQuality. And there 3pt% and FT% in conference play are insanely lucky.  Providences luck is undeniable.

For example, arquette isn't lucky in a KenPom sense this year. They are +0.003 in KenPom luck, a negligible amount. But in terms of ShotQuailty luck and Three point and FT Luck... Marquette is slightly lucky this year. They give up the 3pt shot a fair bit, at 36.2%, and amazingly teams only shoot 31.6% against them. Last i looked the predicted percentage inside ShotQuality was close to 33% of those threes should have been made. But that 1.4% adds up to be 27-28 points of luck over the entire of the season.

[jfp61]

They've proven themselves to be more than capable in tight games. That's a skill. Reeves rounding into form at the right time opens up a lot of different options for them on the floor. They're a different team when he's playing. Cooley is a great coach and the team is very comfortable with one another.

They don't have top talent, but with all of the above factors, they've deservedly won the conference and will be a tough out in single elimination games.

Yes and No. It is skillfull for Cooley to win tight games, he is a good coach. He'd win games with neutral talent at a 55-60% rate against an average high major coach.

Being able to consistently come out on the right side of winning tight games at a 89% rate is luck. Its an unsustainable outcome. The amount of times they have done it is undeniably lucky. Going 3-0 in OT is lucky. Being 10-1 in two possession games is lucky.

You can give them flowers and call them lucky.

[panda]

Yes and No. It is skillfull for Cooley to win tight games, he is a good coach. He'd win games with neutral talent at a 55-60% rate against an average high major coach.

Being able to consistently come out on the right side of winning tight games at a 89% rate is luck. Its an unsustainable outcome. The amount of times they have done it is undeniably lucky. Going 3-0 in OT is lucky. Being 10-1 in two possession games is lucky.

You can give them flowers and call them lucky.

They actually get a banner - not flowers.

[rocky_warrior]

Only time (games) will tell if they're lucky or not.  Of course, if they lose early, is that unlucky?  Or just lack of appropriate luck?

I tend to think that they find ways to win rather than just "luck", but hey, that's just my opinion.

[panda]

Only time (games) will tell if they're lucky or not.  Of course, if they lose early, is that unlucky?  Or just lack of appropriate luck?

I tend to think that they find ways to win rather than just "luck", but hey, that's just my opinion.

The tournament is a crapshoot so can't judge in that respect :-)

[jfp61]

They actually get a banner - not flowers.

They get a banner. You learn a new idiom.

[Jay Bee]

Providence is not a great team. Would be more than happy to play them Friday night. I worry they may not get there, though. They = pc

[Newsdreams]

I feel lucky

[rocky_warrior]

I feel lucky

Is that similar to feeling like a soaking wet crepe paper tiger?  Asking for a friend.

[bilsu]

I like how Shaka has used a lot of players. That is a real advantage after the first game in the Big East tournament or the NCAA tournament. Creighton losing their point guard, if we play them in first round, gives us a good chance to win our first, second and championship games. The key for me is now to play Creighton in first game.

NCAA tournament is going to depend on our seed. We could win an 8/9 game, but then we have to play a one seed. I really want a 6 seed. Win the first game and I think we have a good chance against a three seed.

[panda]

They get a banner. You learn a new idiom.

And it very much missed the mark - Just like your Morsell in conference play take.

[jfp61]

And it very much missed the mark - Just like your Morsell in conference play take.

I'm pretty certain you were the only person who didn't understand the idiom. My only point was Providence is lucky.

I'm happy morsell played his first two above average games in a 40+ days. It brought us to 1-1.  I hope it continues. Maybe if Greg continues to play as bad as he has been morsells on off numbers can pass him.

[panda]

I'm pretty certain you were the only person who didn't understand the idiom. My only point was Providence is lucky.

I'm happy morsell played his first two above average games in a 40+ days. It brought us to 1-1.  I hope it continues. Maybe if Greg continues to play as bad as he has been morsells on off numbers can pass him.

I'd suggest close the laptop, stop looking at the spreadsheets and watch him play. You may actually learn something.

[Herman Cain]

Cooley & Company are The Larry Holmes of The Big East . They beat who ever is put in front of them.