Explosions in Kiev

[Hards Alumni]

1. I'm not sure he minds that much. 
2. You're still going to have to explain to me how Russian leadership benefits from nuclear war.

India and Pakistan beg to differ.

"Certainly"?
Agree to disagree, I guess.

1. You're high
2. So in your opinion, no one will ever fire a nuclear weapon.  Got it.

India and Pakistan?  They skirmished in 1999.  If you want to call that a war, go nuts.  According to the US state dept less than 700 killed.  But if you want the W, or gotcha, you can technically have it.

[Hards Alumni]

Ty.

Isn't it true that in the early 90's Biden and others convinced Clinton to stop the Serbian genocide in Bosnia?  Now obviously Serbia is not Russia.   And Clinton did nothing in Sierra Leone or Rwanda.  But it's something to think about. 

The destabilization of Eastern Europe with a refugee crisis doesn't exactly lessen Putin's threat to the globe.  Why is cowering like Neville here the safe play?  Of course there are risks but the greater risk may be not stopping this now.   Help establish a no-fly zone with NATO and tell Putin to go fk himself for starters?  Cut off his energy supply?  Talk to the GROM and other NATO special ops to get this fkbag??  I feel all options should be on the table.

You ever hear the saying, "Speak softly and carry a big stick"? 

I think in the coming weeks you're going to see that the army that Russia sent to Ukraine is a bit of a paper tiger.  Already there are many reports of food and supply shortages.  They don't have enough rockets and bombs to drop them at the rate that they are.  That kind of stuff is expensive, and no one in the world has a stockpile like the US.  And now, with these sanctions, the Russia military has a serious supply problem.  How do you make smart munitions without chips?  This is why I'm saying be patient.  Russia expected this to be a cake walk, and has met fierce resistance... and motivated Ukrainians.

Nothing is out of control over there... except maybe the Nuclear plant that is on fire... which is really bad.

[MuggsyB]

You ever hear the saying, "Speak softly and carry a big stick"? 

I think in the coming weeks you're going to see that the army that Russia sent to Ukraine is a bit of a paper tiger.  Already there are many reports of food and supply shortages.  They don't have enough rockets and bombs to drop them at the rate that they are.  That kind of stuff is expensive, and no one in the world has a stockpile like the US.  And now, with these sanctions, the Russia military has a serious supply problem.  How do you make smart munitions without chips?  This is why I'm saying be patient.  Russia expected this to be a cake walk, and has met fierce resistance... and motivated Ukrainians.

Nothing is out of control over there... except maybe the Nuclear plant that is on fire... which is really bad.

The Nuclear plant blowing up would be really, really, really, bad.  My fear, especially after hearing Macron, is that Putin will resort to the same tactics  he used in Grozny.  He is a war criminal. 

Now there is no question occupying Ukraine will cripple his military which is a positive.  At the same time, I agree with the sentiment that this man is delusional and has no regard for humanity.   Did you read his latest address?  I don't believe he's even thinking about the ramifications of this mess.  He's like a 4 yr old hell bent on decapitating his 2 year old sister's doll. 

The rules of engagement for war change when you're dealing with a  ruthless tyrant and a complete madman.  I'm not saying this is easy but I don't see his mindset changing moving forward.   

[Pakuni]

1. You're high
2. So in your opinion, no one will ever fire a nuclear weapon.  Got it.

India and Pakistan?  They skirmished in 1999.  If you want to call that a war, go nuts.  According to the US state dept less than 700 killed.  But if you want the W, or gotcha, you can technically have it.

Why are you getting so surly?
1. Thoughtful response.
2. Thoughtful straw man response. I'd like to think you can do better.
3. It's literally been called a war by both countries and historians. Sorry not enough people were killed to satisfy your standards.

[jesmu84]

The Nuclear plant blowing up would be really, really, really, bad.  My fear, especially after hearing Macron, is that Putin will resort to the same tactics  he used in Grozny.  He is a war criminal. 

Now there is no question occupying Ukraine will cripple his military which is a positive.  At the same time, I agree with the sentiment that this man is delusional and has no regard for humanity.   Did you read his latest address?  I don't believe he's even thinking about the ramifications of this mess.  He's like a 4 yr old hell bent on decapitating his 2 year old sister's doll. 

The rules of engagement for war change when you're dealing with a  ruthless tyrant and a complete madman.  I'm not saying this is easy but I don't see his mindset changing moving forward.

That title is meaningless

[Hards Alumni]

Why are you getting so surly?
1. Thoughtful response.
2. Thoughtful straw man response. I'd like to think you can do better.
3. It's literally been called a war by both countries and historians. Sorry not enough people were killed to satisfy your standards.

I learned from the best. 

[Hards Alumni]

That title is meaningless

Exactly.  Pretty much every US President is a war criminal.

[Jockey]

The destabilization of Eastern Europe with a refugee crisis doesn't exactly lessen Putin's threat to the globe.  Why is cowering like Neville here the safe play?  Of course there are risks but the greater risk may be not stopping this now.   Help establish a no-fly zone with NATO and tell Putin to go fk himself for starters?  Cut off his energy supply?  Talk to the GROM and other NATO special ops to get this fkbag??  I feel all options should be on the table.

So you are calling for a full scale war with Russia?

[WarriorFan]

The latest in Russia:
- These sanctions are impactful like nothing I've ever seen.  Amazingly coordinated and consistent effort from USA, EU and UK.  First time I've ever seen sanctions actually work.  Energy sector remains out of scope but financial sector is frozen.
- Many companies have either temporarily or "permanently" stopped working in Russia
- Most significantly, most shipping lines have stopped serving Russia.  Some for sanctions reasons, some for political/policy reasons.
- Oligarchs are beginning to send signals, some more overt than others
- Very strong rumors from multiple sources that martial law will be implemented
- Reports that over 7000 protesters have been arrested.  Apparently it's a 7 year sentence.  Basically it seems that all protesters get arrested unless the group is huge.
- Over $1.4bn has been withdrawn from russian banks by individuals
- Russian share market still suspended
- RUB is 110 to $1... it was 75 a week ago
- Russian sovereign credit rating reduced by 4-6 levels deep into junk status

[MuggsyB]

So you are calling for a full scale war with Russia?

Of course not.  I was just thinking out loud.  But I don't think establishing a  no-fly zone and other things would lead to a full scale war. Especially if he waa dead. According to him we are already at war with each other. 

[MuggsyB]

The latest in Russia:
- These sanctions are impactful like nothing I've ever seen.  Amazingly coordinated and consistent effort from USA, EU and UK.  First time I've ever seen sanctions actually work.  Energy sector remains out of scope but financial sector is frozen.
- Many companies have either temporarily or "permanently" stopped working in Russia
- Most significantly, most shipping lines have stopped serving Russia.  Some for sanctions reasons, some for political/policy reasons.
- Oligarchs are beginning to send signals, some more overt than others
- Very strong rumors from multiple sources that martial law will be implemented
- Reports that over 7000 protesters have been arrested.  Apparently it's a 7 year sentence.  Basically it seems that all protesters get arrested unless the group is huge.
- Over $1.4bn has been withdrawn from russian banks by individuals
- Russian share market still suspended
- RUB is 110 to $1... it was 75 a week ago
- Russian sovereign credit rating reduced by 4-6 levels deep into junk status

From what I've read he's sort of distanced himself from the oligarchs.  But it is cool to seize yachts and planes.  I also think if they leave Russia they couod be charged with war crimes at the Hague.

[MuggsyB]

Zelenskyy is saying that the Russian troops are actually shooting at this Nuclear plant.  Insane sht going on right now.

[Hards Alumni]

Why are you getting so surly?
1. Thoughtful response.
2. Thoughtful straw man response. I'd like to think you can do better.
3. It's literally been called a war by both countries and historians. Sorry not enough people were killed to satisfy your standards.

Fine, I'll answer nicely.

1.  What makes you think putin is fine with being alone?  He just destroyed his entire financial system in less than eight days.  Prior to that, he seemed content to play nice with the rest of the financial world.

2.  They save face.  It is not about benefitting.  It's about one last eff you on your way out the door. Again, maybe they won't, but I'm not willing to risk that they might.

3.  Again, I agreed that technically it was a war.  You are right.  But it is missing the important part that I had mentioned in an earlier post.  Neither India, nor Pakistan felt an existential threat as a country.  No one was backed into a corner, and the war ended fairly bloodless (as wars go) and Pakistan withdrew.

[Hards Alumni]

From what I've read he's sort of distanced himself from the oligarchs.  But it is cool to seize yachts and planes.  I also think if they leave Russia they couod be charged with war crimes at the Hague.

The ICC isn't recognized by Russia.  Just like it isn't recognized by the US.  It is a pointless organization and does not concern major super powers in the least.

[forgetful]

The ICC isn't recognized by Russia.  Just like it isn't recognized by the US.  It is a pointless organization and does not concern major super powers in the least.

They can still technically try non-members. They tried to do that to the US a few years back, so the US retaliated by placing sanctions on the lead prosecutor.

[Jockey]

Of course not.  I was just thinking out loud.  But I don't think establishing a  no-fly zone and other things would lead to a full scale war. Especially if he waa dead. According to him we are already at war with each other.

You don't think it would lead to a full scale war if we start shooting down Russian planes?

[Hards Alumni]

They can still technically try non-members. They tried to do that to the US a few years back, so the US retaliated by placing sanctions on the lead prosecutor.

Worse.  The US passed a law under GWB that said if the ICC had any Americans we would invade The Hague.

Worst case is the ICC can set a travel ban to its member countries.

[MuggsyB]

You don't think it would lead to a full scale war if we start shooting down Russian planes?

Meaning what exactly?  That the Russians would use nukes?

[MuggsyB]

I've been told there are a few reports of Russian businessman/women putting out bounties for Putin's arrest. 

[forgetful]

I've been told there are a few reports of Russian businessman/women putting out bounties for Putin's arrest.

This likely references Alex Konanykhin, who is Russian, with political asylum in the US (granted originally in 1999). He lives in San Francisco. He posted a $1M bounty for the arrest of Putin.

[MuggsyB]

This likely references Alex Konanykhin, who is Russian, with political asylum in the US (granted originally in 1999). He lives in San Francisco. He posted a $1M bounty for the arrest of Putin.

What do you think would happen if he was arrested or put to pasture within Russia? 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I've been told there are a few reports of Russian businessman/women putting out bounties for Putin's arrest.

Muggs,
It's in one of my links from yesterday.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The latest in Russia:
- These sanctions are impactful like nothing I've ever seen.  Amazingly coordinated and consistent effort from USA, EU and UK.  First time I've ever seen sanctions actually work.  Energy sector remains out of scope but financial sector is frozen.
- Many companies have either temporarily or "permanently" stopped working in Russia
- Most significantly, most shipping lines have stopped serving Russia.  Some for sanctions reasons, some for political/policy reasons.
- Oligarchs are beginning to send signals, some more overt than others
- Very strong rumors from multiple sources that martial law will be implemented
- Reports that over 7000 protesters have been arrested.  Apparently it's a 7 year sentence.  Basically it seems that all protesters get arrested unless the group is huge.
- Over $1.4bn has been withdrawn from russian banks by individuals
- Russian share market still suspended
- RUB is 110 to $1... it was 75 a week ago
- Russian sovereign credit rating reduced by 4-6 levels deep into junk status

I saw a Bill Browser tweet somewhere.
The maker of Russian cars, Lada has shut down because they have no chips and will not get anymore anytime if ever.  Same manufacturer makes defense and space equipment for Russia so it means those are shut down also.

[JWags85]

I saw a Bill Browser tweet somewhere.
The maker of Russian cars, Lada has shut down because they have no chips and will not get anymore anytime if ever.  Same manufacturer makes defense and space equipment for Russia so it means those are shut down also.

Are we sure this is true? Lada's parent company is AutoVyz (may have spelled that wrong) and that company is fully owned/controlled by Renault.  Now with everything, even with Renault ownership, they still may not be able to get parts for their cars, but I don't believe that company also makes space and defense components in that structure.  Unless it means that the issues Lada is facing would also be true for defense companies there, which I totally believe

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Are we sure this is true? Lada's parent company is AutoVyz (may have spelled that wrong) and that company is fully owned/controlled by Renault.  Now with everything, even with Renault ownership, they still may not be able to get parts for their cars, but I don't believe that company also makes space and defense components in that structure.  Unless it means that the issues Lada is facing would also be true for defense companies there, which I totally believe

I think it's the latter not former.  Same issues.