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Author Topic: Chances of Winning the Big East  (Read 1611 times)

BallBoy

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Chances of Winning the Big East
« on: February 04, 2022, 06:23:38 PM »
Based on last year the Conference Champion will be determined by Win % due to the uneven schedules.  MU will end up playing 2 more games than Providence if nothing is rescheduled.  Currently providence shows three games postponed with no dates for reschedule.  MU won't likely play St Johns and Providence would end up not playing Uconn, @Hall or @Creighton as Georgetown was rescheduled.  A little imbalanced in the strength of schedule and not much incentive for Providence to actually reschedule them. 

If that is the case, what needs to happen to lock in a BE Championship.

MU will play 19 games while Providence will only play 17.
  • If MU wins out,  Providence would need to go 4-3 or worse in their remaining games.  We would be tied in the loss column but more wins.  Unfortunately, if Providence goes 5-2 they beat us on win% even though we would be virtual tied in the rankings at 14-3 and 15-4.
     Rescheduling and winning the SJ games doesn't get us high enough in the win % to overcome Providence.  We would be a .5 game above in the standings
  • If MU loses just 1, Providence needs to go 3-4 for win.  MU would finish 14-5 while Providence would finish 12-5.  Again unfortunately, Providence wins based on win % if they go 4-3.  Same if we rescheduled and won SJ.
  • If MU loses two, Providence needs to go 2-5 to win.  MU finishes at 13-6 while providence would be 11-6.  However from a win% 13-6 is 68% while 12-5 is 70%.  Technically, they would have a higher win % in the SJ scenario.  Based on who they have left to play not a likely scenario

Rescheduling the SJ's game doesn't provide much value to MU without Providence also rescheduling.  I think Providence has 4 very lose-able games but that leaves us with a margin of error of 1 game.   I previously stated that if MU won 2 of the 3 (Providence, Nova and Uconn) we would be in a very good spot to win the Big East.  Providence has to play Nova 2, Xavier 1 and Creighton.  Their other games are virtual locks (Depaul, Butler and Georgetown).  If we do win 2 of the 3, that leaves us 1 loss against a very doable schedule. 

I do believe that BE needs to rethink the Win% in the future as there is no incentive for Providence to reschedule those three games because they have higher probability of a loss.   If they get a place where those two games don't matter then fine.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2022, 06:37:06 PM »
Based on last year the Conference Champion will be determined by Win % due to the uneven schedules.  MU will end up playing 2 more games than Providence if nothing is rescheduled.  Currently providence shows three games postponed with no dates for reschedule.  MU won't likely play St Johns and Providence would end up not playing Uconn, @Hall or @Creighton as Georgetown was rescheduled.  A little imbalanced in the strength of schedule and not much incentive for Providence to actually reschedule them. 

If that is the case, what needs to happen to lock in a BE Championship.

MU will play 19 games while Providence will only play 17.
  • If MU wins out,  Providence would need to go 4-3 or worse in their remaining games.  We would be tied in the loss column but more wins.  Unfortunately, if Providence goes 5-2 they beat us on win% even though we would be virtual tied in the rankings at 14-3 and 15-4.
     Rescheduling and winning the SJ games doesn't get us high enough in the win % to overcome Providence.  We would be a .5 game above in the standings
  • If MU loses just 1, Providence needs to go 3-4 for win.  MU would finish 14-5 while Providence would finish 12-5.  Again unfortunately, Providence wins based on win % if they go 4-3.  Same if we rescheduled and won SJ.
  • If MU loses two, Providence needs to go 2-5 to win.  MU finishes at 13-6 while providence would be 11-6.  However from a win% 13-6 is 68% while 12-5 is 70%.  Technically, they would have a higher win % in the SJ scenario.  Based on who they have left to play not a likely scenario

Rescheduling the SJ's game doesn't provide much value to MU without Providence also rescheduling.  I think Providence has 4 very lose-able games but that leaves us with a margin of error of 1 game.   I previously stated that if MU won 2 of the 3 (Providence, Nova and Uconn) we would be in a very good spot to win the Big East.  Providence has to play Nova 2, Xavier 1 and Creighton.  Their other games are virtual locks (Depaul, Butler and Georgetown).  If we do win 2 of the 3, that leaves us 1 loss against a very doable schedule. 

I do believe that BE needs to rethink the Win% in the future as there is no incentive for Providence to reschedule those three games because they have higher probability of a loss.   If they get a place where those two games don't matter then fine.

We need one of the 2 to be Providence. Thats the huge difference. If we beat Uconn 9-4 is nice, but we Providence needed to be at 2 losses to our 4 imo to have any shot at all.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

kclem

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2022, 07:05:44 PM »
I wonder if Fox will have any say in any of those games being rescheduled.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2022, 07:29:04 PM »
Sweep the BET

BallBoy

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2022, 07:38:25 PM »
We need one of the 2 to be Providence. Thats the huge difference. If we beat Uconn 9-4 is nice, but we Providence needed to be at 2 losses to our 4 imo to have any shot at all.

Doesn’t matter as much as you think. Regardless of the scenario, we would need some help. If we beat UConn we easily could finish with just one more loss. Though we would need Providence to lose they have some very lose-able games. If they win those kudos to them but they have played a much easier schedule to date in conference. Of the Top 5 teams, MU has the easiest remaining schedule.  Instead of chasing a decent Providence team by three games you would need to chase a Nova and UConn at 2 games each.  I feel much better chasing done Providence than Nova or UConn. 

Nova has Providence and UConn twice.
UConn has X twice, Nova twice, Creighton
Xavier has UConn and Providence.

TallTitan34

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2022, 07:50:07 PM »
They should sort by win total and then percentage. Neither system is fair but why punish the team that played it’s games?

Maybe we should have canceled our UConn loss without Morsell and our Creighton loss without Kam.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2022, 07:51:45 PM by TallTitan34 »
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#Unleash?

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2022, 08:05:24 PM »
Providence will most likely end up winning the conference due to their extremely weaker opponents and beating MU by 2 at home. Sucks, but oh well.

tower912

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2022, 08:10:09 PM »
Slim to none.    Does not detract from what MU has accomplished. 
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Mu8891

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2022, 08:39:12 PM »
MU is not going to win the BE ... but who cares ??

They can get a 4 or 5 seed and win games ( plural ) in the big dance ... I will take that ANY day

DoctorV

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2022, 10:17:32 PM »
Sure the games @SH, @Creighton, and versus UConn are very difficult outs, but it’s not like Providence set things up that way on purpose.
The rules are the rules and those just happened to be the games on the schedule at the time of a mandatory cancellation based on BE rules.

They won at @UConn, @X, and at home versus MU. If they split with Nova then they have earned their Big East Championship. If they lose both, then maybe they open the door for someone else.

Lets not forget they also won at the Kohl Hole (granted without facing Johnny Davis) and beat a good Texas Tech at home. They are 19-2 for a reason, and if they win it they will have earned it despite the “luck” in close games and some timely cancellations.

That said, can’t wait til that luck runs out and they lose to Georgetown or DePaul!

mileskishnish72

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2022, 11:05:19 PM »
Based on last year the Conference Champion will be determined by Win % due to the uneven schedules.  MU will end up playing 2 more games than Providence if nothing is rescheduled.  Currently providence shows three games postponed with no dates for reschedule.  MU won't likely play St Johns and Providence would end up not playing Uconn, @Hall or @Creighton as Georgetown was rescheduled.  A little imbalanced in the strength of schedule and not much incentive for Providence to actually reschedule them. 

If that is the case, what needs to happen to lock in a BE Championship.

MU will play 19 games while Providence will only play 17.
  • If MU wins out,  Providence would need to go 4-3 or worse in their remaining games.  We would be tied in the loss column but more wins.  Unfortunately, if Providence goes 5-2 they beat us on win% even though we would be virtual tied in the rankings at 14-3 and 15-4.
     Rescheduling and winning the SJ games doesn't get us high enough in the win % to overcome Providence.  We would be a .5 game above in the standings
  • If MU loses just 1, Providence needs to go 3-4 for win.  MU would finish 14-5 while Providence would finish 12-5.  Again unfortunately, Providence wins based on win % if they go 4-3.  Same if we rescheduled and won SJ.
  • If MU loses two, Providence needs to go 2-5 to win.  MU finishes at 13-6 while providence would be 11-6.  However from a win% 13-6 is 68% while 12-5 is 70%.  Technically, they would have a higher win % in the SJ scenario.  Based on who they have left to play not a likely scenario

Rescheduling the SJ's game doesn't provide much value to MU without Providence also rescheduling.  I think Providence has 4 very lose-able games but that leaves us with a margin of error of 1 game.   I previously stated that if MU won 2 of the 3 (Providence, Nova and Uconn) we would be in a very good spot to win the Big East.  Providence has to play Nova 2, Xavier 1 and Creighton.  Their other games are virtual locks (Depaul, Butler and Georgetown).  If we do win 2 of the 3, that leaves us 1 loss against a very doable schedule. 

I do believe that BE needs to rethink the Win% in the future as there is no incentive for Providence to reschedule those three games because they have higher probability of a loss.   If they get a place where those two games don't matter then fine.

Nova and UConn are not going away. It's more complex than this. Bottom line, games not played that can't be made up lead to winning percentage determining the winner. We'd have to beat UConn, win out, and see what happens.

The good news is that we have a good chance on not playing Wed. at the BET. Don't like our chances of being the 1 seed.

5DollarPitcher

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2022, 11:16:49 PM »
Slim to none.    Does not detract from what MU has accomplished.
Why so pessimistic? Friars have Nova twice and Xavier, among a couple other losable game. I remember the leader in the clubhouse in the Big East in 2018-2019 choking away a sizable lead, so why don’t we think it could happen?

Other than Friars, Nova has to be perfect and we control our destiny against UConn?

We’re not favorites here but to say slim to none after seeing the fight this team has had this season is ignorant.

MU82

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2022, 11:23:07 PM »
Let's talk about this again after Tuesday's game.
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BallBoy

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2022, 11:34:20 PM »
Nova and UConn are not going away. It's more complex than this. Bottom line, games not played that can't be made up lead to winning percentage determining the winner. We'd have to beat UConn, win out, and see what happens.

The good news is that we have a good chance on not playing Wed. at the BET. Don't like our chances of being the 1 seed.

Look any one team can run the table and this is a moot discussion but there is one thing MU has in their favor. Schedule.

All of the Top 5, other than Marquette, plays at least three games against the other top 5.

If Providence goes 5-2 the rest of the way they earned the title but if they go 5-2 that means they beat the other Top 5 which should position MU very well for Top 2.

If Nova rolls Providence they still need to win against UConn.

If UConn rolls Nova they still need to beat X twice.

As I said before, MU’s ability to do this is contingent on winning 2 of the 3 of which they are 1-1. They beat UConn then they are left which 6 very winnable games with Creighton on paper being the hardest. If MU falters done the stretch and losses to DePaul et al then they blew their chance.

To me this is doable but you need some help which isn’t a stretch either.

1SE

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2022, 01:59:29 AM »
Providence will most likely end up winning the conference due to their extremely weaker opponents and beating MU by 2 at home. Sucks, but oh well.

Yeah, it would beva nice cherry but we really could've put our fate much more in our hands by winning St the dunk. We need a lot if help now (with nova and UCONN too)

Oh well, top-3 conference finish and a 4 or 5 seed would be awesome.
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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2022, 05:28:08 AM »
Why so pessimistic? Friars have Nova twice and Xavier, among a couple other losable game. I remember the leader in the clubhouse in the Big East in 2018-2019 choking away a sizable lead, so why don’t we think it could happen?

Other than Friars, Nova has to be perfect and we control our destiny against UConn?

We’re not favorites here but to say slim to none after seeing the fight this team has had this season is ignorant.

How could the leader in the clubhouse choke? They're already in the clubhouse.

5DollarPitcher

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2022, 07:14:12 AM »
How could the leader in the clubhouse choke? They're already in the clubhouse.
The leader teeing off on 18**

bilsu

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2022, 08:16:51 AM »
Marquette currently stands in fourth place, and I think they are more likely to move up in the standings than they are to fall in the standings. They had to have won at Providence to have a chance at the Big East title.
Providence will not lose twice to Nova.

panda

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2022, 09:01:37 AM »
Marquette currently stands in fourth place, and I think they are more likely to move up in the standings than they are to fall in the standings. They had to have won at Providence to have a chance at the Big East title.
Providence will not lose twice to Nova.

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#Unleash?

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2022, 09:06:18 AM »
Providence will end up winning because they will have by far the weakest big east schedule of all time. Hang the banner with a couple ****

CountryRoads

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2022, 09:16:05 AM »
Slim to none.    Does not detract from what MU has accomplished.

Yes, I’m hoping we are having a discussion in a few weeks about how we got screwed of a Big East championship because of the canceled games. It means we would have finished the season strong.

Right now, there’s still too much basketball to be played. The games after UCONN are not cakewalks either. The three remaining road games will all be wars especially.

Uncle Rico

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2022, 09:16:49 AM »
Providence will end up winning because they will have by far the weakest big east schedule of all time. Hang the banner with a couple ****

They’ll be deserving champs
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Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Chances of Winning the Big East
« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2022, 01:51:41 PM »
Win out, while Providence loses 3 and Nova loses 2. Doable! Let's do it!