2023 Team Outlook

[wadesworld]

Hmm...so I assume you are just as biased against the AP Poll? It has had Gonzaga in the top 2 in 4 of the past 6 seasons. In one of the two outliers, they were 4th.

Gonzaga was absolutely top-2 in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Both the vast preponderance of polls and NCAA results bear that out. I don't think there's any argument against that.

In 2022, they started the year #1, fell when they dropped their first game, then climbed back to #2 in Week 10 and remained in the top-2 the rest of the season. So while I guess you can dispute 2022 because they lost in the Sweet 16, the AP Poll consensus was that they were one of the top two teams in the country for the vast majority of the season.

2019 is the other year you can dispute. Their only losses before falling to St. Mary's in the WCC Final were to AP Final Poll #3 UNC and #6 Tennessee. They beat the Duke team that finished #1. So they were maybe third or fourth, with UVA and UNC the other contenders for top level status.

Honestly, saying Gonzaga has been #1 or #2 in "one or two seasons" is FAR more hyperbolic than saying they were #1 in five of the last six. I'd say it's pretty clearly at least four of six with a decent case for five.

I don't really think I'm biased against either the AP polls or KenPom.  I'm biased against people who say that KenPom is not Gospel and only one of many data points...and then constantly recite KenPom's numbers and constantly defend it.

There are years where Gonzaga is awesome and has a legitimate chance to win a National Title.  2021 they could have, if Baylor wasn't significantly better than them (and everyone else).  But they were legit contenders.

Last year?  I never even came close to even thinking about putting them in the Final Four.  Relative to what Few has had over the last decade, they weren't close to one of his best teams.  Their best wins were an overrated Texas team early in the year and an overrated UCLA team early in the year.  The win over Texas Tech was an impressive win, and the loss to an overrated Bama team wasn't impressive.  Really struggled with Memphis in the second round and their loss to Arkansas wasn't just a fluke game where they played bad, they absolutely looked like a worse team both in that game and in the 3 Tourney games they played.

Of course they're going to keep (or rise) their ranking when they go into conference play.  They play...St. Mary's?  BYU?  And San Francisco?  Terrifying.

[brewcity77]

I think Xavier is a solid pick. Miller is a major upgrade and Scruggs might be addition by subtraction. I also feel like people are overlooking 'Nova. I do worry about their PG situation, but Slater, Dixon, and Daniels are all solid and Cam Whitmore looks like a BEFOY lock and potential lottery pick. If Brizzi or Longino can provide even replacement level PG minutes, they'll be right there for the league crown.

I think Marquette, Creighton, Providence, and UConn are all pretty similar behind those two. Plenty to be optimistic about, but also serious cause for concerns.

[BCHoopster]

MU will have a hard time against any physical center, if Oso can add anything to his repertoire of shots it could lead to a MU advantage on offense, time will tell.  Creighton, UConn will be a problem. Nunge at Xavier not as much, plays more outside. 

[panda]

I think Xavier is a solid pick. Miller is a major upgrade and Scruggs might be addition by subtraction. I also feel like people are overlooking 'Nova. I do worry about their PG situation, but Slater, Dixon, and Daniels are all solid and Cam Whitmore looks like a BEFOY lock and potential lottery pick. If Brizzi or Longino can provide even replacement level PG minutes, they'll be right there for the league crown.

I think Marquette, Creighton, Providence, and UConn are all pretty similar behind those two. Plenty to be optimistic about, but also serious cause for concerns.

Nova is going to be my Wisconsin type bugaboo team until they prove otherwise without coach Jay. They have good not great talent, not a ton of depth, but hard to bet against them given their success.

My point to the original poster is that there is a pretty significant "proven" talent gulf between us and the top four teams listed. I hope our guys take jumps, but I fear it will be a rocky season if the development doesn't happen quickly.

[Herman Cain]

I continue to bullish on MU this coming season. I believe we will see improvement across the board on returning players . I
Confident our transfer will comfortably perform at The Big East level and be a major contributor . My guess is one out of the three freshman will emerge as a rotation player early in the season and a second will emerge as an energy type toward the end of the season .

The Big East is a formidable conference and presents a challenge . However , I believe that MU is on par with all the teams in the league and will have the benefit of team continuity

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't really think I'm biased against either the AP polls or KenPom.  I'm biased against people who say that KenPom is not Gospel and only one of many data points...and then constantly recite KenPom's numbers and constantly defend it.

Go back and read the thread Wades. No one was reciting KenPom here. Pakuni brought it up and he is decidedly not one of the Prophets of KenPom. Then when Pakuni and you made legitimate criticisms of KenPom, no one tried to defend against those because you were right. There are significant limitations and KenPom does overvalue teams that play certain styles. The only defense is against those that think it is useless. And if you don't like reading that, it's a college basketball forum in mid-August, what else is there to talk about?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Go back and read the thread Wades. No one was reciting KenPom here. Pakuni brought it up and he is decidedly not one of the Prophets of KenPom. Then when Pakuni and you made legitimate criticisms of KenPom, no one tried to defend against those because you were right. There are significant limitations and KenPom does overvalue teams that play certain styles. The only defense is against those that think it is useless. And if you don't like reading that, it's a college basketball forum in mid-August, what else is there to talk about?

Well said. The stat sites do a good good job of developing a baseline so posters can argue why a team is better or worse than that baseline. It at least level sets the discussion. Each stat site has issues with methodology yet it's better than just the "eye test". In fact, many of those voters in the polls start with a stat site.

That said, KPom had MU finishing 56th last season. Others around 68th. My eye test had MU around the 87th range after the collapse after February/March swoon. I checked out after sitting through that DePaul debacle live.

Thus, with what MU lost and what we have, I am thinking the stat sites are a bit optimistic towards MU in the preseason as it is based largely on last season. I am feeling the 87th range and 8/9th place. I think this is Year 2 at Texas.

[MU82]

I think this is Year 2 at Texas.

11-22? Jeez, I hope not!

[MUfan12]

That said, KPom had MU finishing 56th last season. Others around 68th. My eye test had MU around the 87th range after the collapse after February/March swoon. I checked out after sitting through that DePaul debacle live.

Thus, with what MU lost and what we have, I am thinking the stat sites are a bit optimistic towards MU in the preseason as it is based largely on last season. I am feeling the 87th range and 8/9th place. I think this is Year 2 at Texas.

The guys MU lost also played a decent hand in that swoon, so who knows.

I don't know if they reach the late-January highs of last season, but I do think the floor is higher.

[Dr. Blackheart]

11-22? Jeez, I hope not!

Rather than that literal record, I am feeling a reset year.

[MU82]

Rather than that literal record, I am feeling a reset year.

Ah.

Still hope you're wrong ... and no doubt you also hope you're wrong.

Without knowing enough about all of our opponents, I still feel pretty good about the guys we have and the improvement many will make. Shaka's been a pretty good talent-developer over the years.

[GoldenEagles03]

That video of Oso blocking Itejere is absolutely ridiculous. If his guard skills are real like Shaka says, in that 6'10" body, I think he's going to have a meteoric rise the next few years.

Also Stevie playing above the rim! Awesome!

[Milkshakes]

That video of Oso blocking Itejere is absolutely ridiculous. If his guard skills are real like Shaka says, in that 6'10" body, I think he's going to have a meteoric rise the next few years.

Also Stevie playing above the rim! Awesome!

This is Scoop. I think you mean: Itejere must not be as athletic as everyone has been saying.

[GoldenEagles03]

This is Scoop. I think you mean: Itejere must not be as athletic as everyone has been saying.

His head was above the rim. He floated.

[The Sultan]

His head was above the rim. He floated.

They practice on 8' rims just so you know.

[Jay Bee]

4-0 in the BEast before the season is shutdown due to monkey pox or WWIII

[The Sultan]

4-0 in the BEast before the season is shutdown due to monkey pox or WWIII

I think that's a banner worthy accomplishment!

[wadesworld]

4-0 in the BEast before the season is shutdown due to monkey pox or WWIII

#endoftimes #permaban

[Dr. Blackheart]

Ah.

Still hope you're wrong ... and no doubt you also hope you're wrong.

Without knowing enough about all of our opponents, I still feel pretty good about the guys we have and the improvement many will make. Shaka's been a pretty good talent-developer over the years.

It's a COLE year for me but I am truly looking forward to the development of players and coaches. I am expecting exciting things from Sean Jones.  I think Oso and Joplin make big jumps.

[BCHoopster]

It's a COLE year for me but I am truly looking forward to the development of players and coaches. I am expecting exciting things from Sean Jones.  I think Oso and Joplin make big jumps.

.

After talking to somebody in the know, talent is there, now it is getting the players to buy into there roles, and he said now we will see what type of coach Shaka is.

[bilsu]

4-0 in the BEast before the season is shutdown due to monkey pox or WWIII

I am more afraid of World War III than I am monkey pox.

[bilsu]

Last year in our 19 wins we averaged 76.89 pts and gave up 66.32 pts for an average winning margin just over 10 points. Last year in our 13 losses we averaged 69.31 points and gave up 79.38 points for an average losing margin of just over 10 points per game. That is a 20-point margin swing between wins and losses. I am not sure what to think about this, but the 10-point losing margin does not give me a lot of confidence,

[Newsdreams]

4-0 in the BEast before the season is shutdown due to monkey pox or WWIII

Undefeated season or bust

[tower912]

Unscored on or bust

[Dr. Blackheart]

Busts or bust