2023 Team Outlook

[MuggsyB]

Surprise player for us this year??

Joplin?

[tower912]

He is expected to contribute and score.  The only way he can 'surprise' is negatively.

If you mean 'which player will exceed expectations? ', that is tougher because the expectation bar is pretty high for most of the team.   The two talked about the least seem to be Ross and Keeyan.   So I will pick one of them.

[DoctorV]

He is expected to contribute and score.  The only way he can 'surprise' is negatively.

If you mean 'which player will exceed expectations? ', that is tougher because the expectation bar is pretty high for most of the team.   The two talked about the least seem to be Ross and Keeyan.   So I will pick one of them.

When will you pick?

[We R Final Four]

Surprise player for us this year??

Joplin?

Not to me.

[tower912]

I think if there is going to be a surprise, it will be Ross or Keeyan.   That is my answer.

[Johnny B]

He is expected to contribute and score.  The only way he can 'surprise' is negatively.

If you mean 'which player will exceed expectations? ', that is tougher because the expectation bar is pretty high for most of the team.   The two talked about the least seem to be Ross and Keeyan.   So I will pick one of them.

i mean if he goes out there and looks like hayward it would be a bit surprising no?

[DoctorV]

The “surprise” questions is a very good one for a squad with so many unknowns.

As a fan base, it seems like we are all fairly bullish and have pretty high expectations for a squad picked to finish 8th/9th in the BE. That’s a good thing, until it isn’t…

I’ll dive in to my guesses as most likely “positive surprise” and “negative surprise,” since I’m bored and taking a break from my book.

Lets start with the possible negative surprise
Most likely candidates are probably the ones with the highest expectations.
OMax, TyKo, and Kam Jones would be the 3 that I put as the most likely here.
No idea who, if any of the above, will be a negative surprise this season.
If I had to wager I would go with Kolek or Kam simply because of the options at G compared to those at the 4/5 spots.

For every “negative surprise” there is usually a “positive surprise” that overtakes those minutes and moves the dude with higher expectations to more of a utility role. I can foresee a scenario where either Tyler or Kam struggle, whether offensively, defensively, or both, enough to be overtaken in minutes and importance by say someone like Sean Jones or Chase Ross.

FWIW, I did not include Oso because I think it would take quite a lot to go wrong for him to be a negative surprise. He will likely get a lot of minutes and the depth isn’t quite there to take those minutes- from what I’ve seen it doesn’t seem like Keeyan is there yet.
Also FWIW, in a bubble my prediction for biggest “negative surprise” would be OMax, simply because I think his expectations kind of came out of nowhere.
I’ve mentioned before and I’ll say it again- I saw stardom from JLew very early in a way I still haven’t seen from OMax, before Lewis became what many think he would become.
I hope I’m missing it with Omax, but either way I think that he is a necessary piece that will have a harder time getting leapfrogged in the front court than the guards mentioned above.

On to the glass half full portion, and the possible “positive surprise”
I’ll start with the most likely candidates
Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones.
This is the type of season we’ve got ahead of us. These two, although they have considerable expectations in place, will also have the most opportunity to rise to “stardom.” TyKo and/or Kam can become a first team AllBE type of performer, and that alone would win the biggest positive surprise distinction.

Additional candidates
Wrightsil, Sean Jones, David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell.
Wrightsil is a big unknown, and he definitely knows how to play but no one really knows if it’ll translate. He can become a huge pleasant surprise if the game is in his grasp, especially because the front court need is there. 
Sean is exciting, and good, so that one is obvious.
Jop can score with the best of them, and scoring gets the gals as they say. If he’s a bucket getter and top 3 scorer he will happily surprise us all.
Stevie just seems like the type of guy who can make a massive second year leap. He’s got all the intangibles, and the high school scoring background. Big year for him because he can either fall back into a role player mold (with more firepower to come at the 1-3 spots next season) or he can shoot up (literally and figuratively) to an irreplaceable guard.

[MuggsyB]

The “surprise” questions is a very good one for a squad with so many unknowns.

As a fan base, it seems like we are all fairly bullish and have pretty high expectations for a squad picked to finish 8th/9th in the BE. That’s a good thing, until it isn’t…

I’ll dive in to my guesses as most likely “positive surprise” and “negative surprise,” since I’m bored and taking a break from my book.

Lets start with the possible negative surprise
Most likely candidates are probably the ones with the highest expectations.
OMax, TyKo, and Kam Jones would be the 3 that I put as the most likely here.
No idea who, if any of the above, will be a negative surprise this season.
If I had to wager I would go with Kolek or Kam simply because of the options at G compared to those at the 4/5 spots.

For every “negative surprise” there is usually a “positive surprise” that overtakes those minutes and moves the dude with higher expectations to more of a utility role. I can foresee a scenario where either Tyler or Kam struggle, whether offensively, defensively, or both, enough to be overtaken in minutes and importance by say someone like Sean Jones or Chase Ross.

FWIW, I did not include Oso because I think it would take quite a lot to go wrong for him to be a negative surprise. He will likely get a lot of minutes and the depth isn’t quite there to take those minutes- from what I’ve seen it doesn’t seem like Keeyan is there yet.
Also FWIW, in a bubble my prediction for biggest “negative surprise” would be OMax, simply because I think his expectations kind of came out of nowhere.
I’ve mentioned before and I’ll say it again- I saw stardom from JLew very early in a way I still haven’t seen from OMax, before Lewis became what many think he would become.
I hope I’m missing it with Omax, but either way I think that he is a necessary piece that will have a harder time getting leapfrogged in the front court than the guards mentioned above.

On to the glass half full portion, and the possible “positive surprise”
I’ll start with the most likely candidates
Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones.
This is the type of season we’ve got ahead of us. These two, although they have considerable expectations in place, will also have the most opportunity to rise to “stardom.” TyKo and/or Kam can become a first team AllBE type of performer, and that alone would win the biggest positive surprise distinction.

Additional candidates
Wrightsil, Sean Jones, David Joplin, Stevie Mitchell.
Wrightsil is a big unknown, and he definitely knows how to play but no one really knows if it’ll translate. He can become a huge pleasant surprise if the game is in his grasp, especially because the front court need is there. 
Sean is exciting, and good, so that one is obvious.
Jop can score with the best of them, and scoring gets the gals as they say. If he’s a bucket getter and top 3 scorer he will happily surprise us all.
Stevie just seems like the type of guy who can make a massive second year leap. He’s got all the intangibles, and the high school scoring background. Big year for him because he can either fall back into a role player mold (with more firepower to come at the 1-3 spots next season) or he can shoot up (literally and figuratively) to an irreplaceable guard.

I'm wondering about the growth in Steve's offense.  If he holds his own on that end he realistically will be on the floor a lot.  How Shaka will use our guards and overall depth will be interesting.  I would think we'll play 3 smalls quite a bit if Jones the Younger can be the conductor in transition.  Speed and seeing the floor leads to hoops happiness in general. 

[cheebs09]

He is expected to contribute and score.  The only way he can 'surprise' is negatively.

If you mean 'which player will exceed expectations? ', that is tougher because the expectation bar is pretty high for most of the team.   The two talked about the least seem to be Ross and Keeyan.   So I will pick one of them.

I don’t know. I’m still not ready to jump all-in on Joplin until I see him defend. If he came out and started being a solid defender and improved his passing, I’d be pleasantly surprised.

[MU82]

I don’t know. I’m still not ready to jump all-in on Joplin until I see him defend. If he came out and started being a solid defender and improved his passing, I’d be pleasantly surprised.

Agree.

Some folks seem to be saying that if Joplin goes for 14 and 6 and defends well, it won't be a surprise. I'd be pretty damn pleasantly surprised by that!

[tower912]

A 'surprise' for me would be if this team struggles to score.     A 'surprise' for me would be if this team turned into rebounding terrors.  A 'surprise' for me would be if we don't see obvious improvement from the returnees.   

[Its DJOver]

Is there another Joplin I don't know about?  Are we talking about the guy that averaged less than 3 ppg past year?  Now I expect a jump from him the way I expect a jump from anyone going from a Freshman to a Sophomore, and I know that there's a Justin size hole to fill, but I just don't see a Justin size Freshman to Sophomore jump for him.

[panda]

Is there another Joplin I don't know about?  Are we talking about the guy that averaged less than 3 ppg past year?  Now I expect a jump from him the way I expect a jump from anyone going from a Freshman to a Sophomore, and I know that there's a Justin size hole to fill, but I just don't see a Justin size Freshman to Sophomore jump for him.

Different role with increased mpg leads me to believe he will be a significant player next season.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I think we are only going to see marginal increases in minutes and production out of Joplin. Wrightsil is the one who will be taking the bulk of the minutes that were Lewis's last year.

[Its DJOver]

Different role with increased mpg leads me to believe he will be a significant player next season.

I hope you're right.  I would be extremely happy with about 7 and 4 with improved ORtg and DRtg.  I think Sultan's prediction is pretty spot on.

[panda]

I hope you're right.  I would be extremely happy with about 7 and 4 with improved ORtg and DRtg.  I think Sultan's prediction is pretty spot on.

He played a pinch hitter role last season. Very difficult for a scorer to come in and make a shot cold playing 5ish mins a game. His offense is more than ready for him to play big time minutes. My hope is for his d to improve and allow him to play a ton.

[panda]

I think we are only going to see marginal increases in minutes and production out of Joplin. Wrightsil is the one who will be taking the bulk of the minutes that were Lewis's last year.

Everything I’ve heard leads me to believe wrightsil is an undersized 5. He’ll see a lot of minutes spelling Oso as Keeyan isn’t close to ready for significant PT. Still think Joplin is first off the bench and will play a lot given his offensive versatility.

[Jay Bee]

Is there another Joplin I don't know about?  Are we talking about the guy that averaged less than 3 ppg past year?  Now I expect a jump from him the way I expect a jump from anyone going from a Freshman to a Sophomore, and I know that there's a Justin size hole to fill, but I just don't see a Justin size Freshman to Sophomore jump for him.

Look at a good KenPom comp — Daniel Utomi  2017 to 2018 seasons.

Key indicator is Jop had a 26% %Shots. Poor % from outside, but he’s not a 28.8% shooter. If that pops up into the mid 30s this year, he’ll put up some scoring numbers.

From Jan 5 to March 5, played in 15 games while never hitting double-digits.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Hilarious.

You may be unaware of the UDRF Lenny?  The Underground Dwarf Rebel Force?  They are not to be trifled with and have the uncanny ability to attack when you least expect it.  There will be no warning and may God have mercy on your soul.

Is that some form of Insane Clown Posse for little people?

[brewcity77]

Is there another Joplin I don't know about?  Are we talking about the guy that averaged less than 3 ppg past year?  Now I expect a jump from him the way I expect a jump from anyone going from a Freshman to a Sophomore, and I know that there's a Justin size hole to fill, but I just don't see a Justin size Freshman to Sophomore jump for him.

From a usage perspective, Joplin would project to a pretty comfortable 14+ ppg guy if he was getting 25-30 mpg. That said, I don't expect him to get that many minutes.

Justin's scoring jump made sense because he only needed a slight usage jump considering he doubled his minutes. Joplin would need to roughly quadruple his minutes to match Justin, but if he did play that much he'd score a lot.

[GoldenEagles03]

https://twitter.com/MarquetteMBB/status/1576981735006511105?t=w-Z1SzAp5qvslMp80eSGYw&s=19

5 dribbles. 6 passes. Ending with a 6'11" forward/center drilling a 3.

Could be some awesome mismatches to exploit this year.

[Elonsmusk]

https://twitter.com/MarquetteMBB/status/1576981735006511105?t=w-Z1SzAp5qvslMp80eSGYw&s=19

5 dribbles. 6 passes. Ending with a 6'11" forward/center drilling a 3.

Could be some awesome mismatches to exploit this year.

Interesting lineup there:  Wrightsill, Kolek, Sean Jones, Kam Jones, Gold.  (Which probably puts the opposition as:  OMax, Oso, Joplin, Ross, Stevie.)

The lineup possibilities for this team are diverse.  One reason I feel we could/may play Havoc type of defense is that there likely is little drop off in the 6 through 10 players.

[Jay Bee]

https://twitter.com/MarquetteMBB/status/1576981735006511105?t=w-Z1SzAp5qvslMp80eSGYw&s=19

5 dribbles. 6 passes. Ending with a 6'11" forward/center drilling a 3.

Could be some awesome mismatches to exploit this year.

Heard it was staged and took 17 takes.

[brewcity77]

https://twitter.com/MarquetteMBB/status/1576981735006511105?t=w-Z1SzAp5qvslMp80eSGYw&s=19

5 dribbles. 6 passes. Ending with a 6'11" forward/center drilling a 3.

Could be some awesome mismatches to exploit this year.

That said, easier to exploit mismatches when playing 5-on-4 (which they are in the video).

[jfp61]

That said, easier to exploit mismatches when playing 5-on-4 (which they are in the video).

Its a defensive drill the defense in it is fine. The offense is better.