How many wins by February 9th?

[1SE]

So we all know the next 5 games are going to be tough, but it seems we should have a good sense of our NCAA fate by February 9th following @UCONN. With a finishing stretch that includes both the Bulter games, GT home and SJU home and Depaul away, 4 or 5 wins in the final 6 games seems very feasible.

So, how many will we get before that? I think it's important to set this out because the odds are we will win more than we lose before that point.

4 or less and I think we're pretty much out of the running.

5 and we'll have to finish strong but the bubble is doable

6 gives us a little margin for error (but likely still bubbly)

7 and I think we'll be in.

8 or more and we'd have to have a Wojo-style collapse to miss.

My money is on 5 - just putting this down so I'm not too disheartened when we're at 5-9 in conference play on February 9th. More than that and I think Shaka will be exceeding expectations.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think the answer is 4 or less.  I am excepting 3.  If they can go 6-8 or better in the first 14 games, MU is in great shape.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

For those who want to know what the schedule is before voting:

XAV x2
UConn X2
@SJU
CREI
PROV X2
@GTWN
DEP
HALL X2
NOVA X2

I'm predicting 5-9

[NCMUFan]

W 8 - L 6

[goldeneagle91114]

I hope I'm wrong, but my vote is 3 wins. The BEAST is much tougher than i anticipated this year. I think our youth and poor shooting will be too hard to overcome.

I do expect this team to make a deep NIT run though.

[BM1090]

7.

But we'll win some close games and get blown out a few times. Our NET/efficiency metrics won't be great.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

7.

But we'll win some close games and get blown out a few times. Our NET/efficiency metrics won't be great.

If this team goes 7-7 in the first 14, with the final 6 games of the season looking like they do, they'll be safely inside the NCAA tournament field.

But I have a really hard time finding 7 wins going game by game of the first 14.

[mubb3434]

Wins at home besides Seton Hall and Nova. Steal road games at Providence and Georgetown. 7 wins!

XAV X2 WL
UConn X2 WL
@SJU L
CREI W
PROV X2 WW
@GTWN W
DEP W
HALL X2 LL
NOVA X2 LL

[goldeneagle91114]

its going to be really fun to watch scoop over the next month and half. As a collective group, it appears we're very divided on how we feel the BEAST schedule will play out.

[bilsu]

The question in my mind is whether the posters projecting MU to do well are overestimating MU or underestimating the rest of the Big East?

I do not see us winning a game against Villanova, Uconn, Xavier or Seton Hall. Although it is likely we steel one of those games. I am not sure we will sweep any of the other teams. Starting out with a tough Big east schedule may hurt our young team's confidence.

[BM1090]

If this team goes 7-7 in the first 14, with the final 6 games of the season looking like they do, they'll be safely inside the NCAA tournament field.

But I have a really hard time finding 7 wins going game by game of the first 14.

I think they start 7-7 and go 4-2 in the last six, making the tournament as a 9 or 10 seed.

Saturday will likely be pretty rough but I think they bounce back with an ugly win at home against UConn.

We should know pretty early whether we have a good shot to be a tournament team. The four game stretch after @SJU is manageable.

[rocky_warrior]

7.

But we'll win some close games and get blown out a few times. Our NET/efficiency metrics won't be great.

This would be incredible - and unlikely.  Either our efficiency metrics improve, or we're not winning those 7 games.  As I see it now (per Torvik), there's only 5 conference games MU has 50% or better chance of winning (all season, not just Feb 9).  There's 10 that we have less than a 30% chance of winning.   And I know the games actually have to be played, but if we get to 11 conference wins (as you've predicted), metrics MUST get better.

[NCMUFan]

Or our opponents' metrics become horribly worse.

[rocky_warrior]

Or our opponents' metrics become horribly worse.

Maybe that's teal.  But if it's not, that's not how it works.  If one team has a good offensive game, the other teams defensive #s get worse, and vice versa.  Once you get in conference, there's a essentially the "conservation of metrics" law. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Maybe that's teal.  But if it's not, that's not how it works.  If one team has a good offensive game, the other teams defensive #s get worse, and vice versa.  Once you get in conference, there's a essentially the "conservation of metrics" law.

But our non-conference opponents' metrics can get worse which still impacts us.

[MU82]

I do not see us winning a game against Villanova, Uconn, Xavier or Seton Hall. Although it is likely we steel one of those games.

Huh? How are we not winning any of those games if we steal one?

[BM1090]

This would be incredible - and unlikely.  Either our efficiency metrics improve, or we're not winning those 7 games.  As I see it now (per Torvik), there's only 5 conference games MU has 50% or better chance of winning (all season, not just Feb 9).  There's 10 that we have less than a 30% chance of winning.   And I know the games actually have to be played, but if we get to 11 conference wins (as you've predicted), metrics MUST get better.

I expect them to improve but not a ton. 11 wins with a net around 55-60.

Torvik rank would obviously see a bigger jump due to a lower starting point.

[rocky_warrior]

But our non-conference opponents' metrics can get worse which still impacts us.

Where's the optimist?  They could also get better!

Or, we just win a bunch of conference games and it all sorts itself out. 

[NCMUFan]

Poll shows threequarters of fans believe we will win 6 or less games.
Sobering.

[fjm]

It is what I believe will happen. I voted 4 or less.

What I hope happens/have faith in is 6 at least.

[Skatastrophy]

Over under on the number of COVID-19 cancellations? I'll say 2

[Herman Cain]

The question in my mind is whether the posters projecting MU to do well are overestimating MU or underestimating the rest of the Big East?

I do not see us winning a game against Villanova, Uconn, Xavier or Seton Hall. Although it is likely we steel one of those games. I am not sure we will sweep any of the other teams. Starting out with a tough Big east schedule may hurt our young team's confidence.

I have been projecting MU to do well since before the season started . My operative theory was we would have a solid Non Conference and that our league opponents were tough but  it works beaters so we could hold serve for the most part at home and steal a few on the road 

[1SE]

Poll shows threequarters of fans believe we will win 6 or less games.
Sobering.

Vast majority of us expect sub .500 in conference by Feb 9, I wonder if the tone of scoop will reflect those expectations if that comes to pass

[MU82]

Vast majority of us expect sub .500 in conference by Feb 9, I wonder if the tone of scoop will reflect those expectations if that comes to pass

Y'all are new here, ain'tcha?

[bilsu]

Huh? How are we not winning any of those games if we steal one?

On paper we are not going to win any of those games. In basketball there are upsets.
8 chances for 1 upset.