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Marquette
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Marquette vs

Jackson St.

Date/Time: Nov 30, 2021, 8:00pm
TV: CBS Sports
Schedule for 2020-21
N. Illinois
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Author Topic: Opening Line  (Read 1247 times)

bradforster

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Opening Line
« on: November 20, 2021, 07:20:12 PM »
Marquette is a five point dog tomorrow evening.  It would be interesting to know how often a team has won a pre-season tournament as the underdog in each game played.  It can't be a very high number.  Let's make it happen.  Go MU!

mileskishnish72

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2021, 07:27:56 PM »
Yeah, but is that from some disreputable offshore internet site?

Wait until tho professional gamblers on Scoop weigh in with what should really happen.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2021, 07:29:10 PM »
Yeah, but is that from some disreputable offshore internet site?

Wait until tho professional gamblers on Scoop weigh in with what should really happen.

Solid take.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2021, 07:39:25 PM »
Marquette is a five point dog tomorrow evening.  It would be interesting to know how often a team has won a pre-season tournament as the underdog in each game played.  It can't be a very high number.  Let's make it happen.  Go MU!

We're playing with house money, LFG!

tower912

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2021, 07:45:03 PM »
I thought ot was going to be something like... 'If I could change the alphabet, I would put U and I next to each other.'

But this makes more sense.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

brewcity77

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2021, 08:09:53 PM »
I wonder how much of this is because of analytics. Kenpom has us as a 5-point dog as well, but much of that is built in because of last year. I think if someone were setting a line based on this year, we'd at least be a pick 'em, especially after yesterday.
Why won't Kur Kuath answer my DMs?
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He blocked me.

avid1010

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2021, 07:40:48 AM »
I wonder how much of this is because of analytics. Kenpom has us as a 5-point dog as well, but much of that is built in because of last year. I think if someone were setting a line based on this year, we'd at least be a pick 'em, especially after yesterday.
Then all the sharp money would flow to MU and the books would get hammered.  MU is a 5pt dog...they were (very roughly) the same against Miss and then WV.  The books are giving them credit for being better than expected by keeping the lines similar as the competition gets better. 

g0lden3agle

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2021, 07:43:54 AM »
I wonder how much of this is because of analytics. Kenpom has us as a 5-point dog as well, but much of that is built in because of last year. I think if someone were setting a line based on this year, we'd at least be a pick 'em, especially after yesterday.

Never realized Kenpom uses last years ratings early on in the following year.  Does he have a blog post on that subject?  I was wondering why we were still in the 70's after these last few wins...

DrJay24

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2021, 07:51:03 AM »
Never realized Kenpom uses last years ratings early on in the following year.  Does he have a blog post on that subject?  I was wondering why we were still in the 70's after these last few wins...

Yes he has in the past. I don’t know what’s out there now but if you search for it I’m sure you can find something. It’s not until sometime in January I believe that all of the prior year stuff is relegated to zero.

fjm

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2021, 08:13:19 AM »
Yeah, but is that from some disreputable offshore internet site?

Wait until tho professional gamblers on Scoop weigh in with what should really happen.

OnLy SeAsErZ AnD MgEeM CoUnT As SoURcE!

But honestly 5 doesn’t surprise me all that much!

MU82

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2021, 08:33:33 AM »
Easy money. We Are Marquette!
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

fjm

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2021, 08:42:21 AM »
-4.0 @ caesars per ESPN.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2021, 08:45:24 AM »
Never realized Kenpom uses last years ratings early on in the following year.  Does he have a blog post on that subject?  I was wondering why we were still in the 70's after these last few wins...

To be clear he uses data from last year on the players currently on the roster. So Lewis, Oso, and Greg are the only ones bringing data from last year's MU squad.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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avid1010

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2021, 08:53:00 AM »
Sharp money flowing to MU...general consensus is that MU will run the Bonnies starting 5 into the ground using their deep bench while the Bonnies bench couldn't score a point last game.  Get them gassed and/or in foul trouble and MU should be good to roll.  Only question mark is MU's outside shooting.  A few books still at +4...I've seen it as low as +3.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2021, 08:58:06 AM by avid1010 »

Shooter McGavin

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2021, 08:56:03 AM »
Sharp money flowing to MU...general consensus is that MU will run the Bonnies starting 5 into the ground using their deep bench while the Bonnies bench couldn't score a point last game.  Get them gassed and/or in foul trouble and MU should be good to roll.  Only question mark is MU's outside shooting.  A few books still at +5...I've seen it as low as +3.5.

Agree with the wearing out theory.  It has shown up in every game.  Those comebacks were no fluke.

MU82

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2021, 09:44:55 AM »
How "accurate" is kenpom as a predictor in November, December and even January?

Maybe it's really accurate. I don't know; that's why I'm asking those who follow this stuff.

It just seems not too predictive this time of year, and yet it is still constantly referred to. But maybe it is a great predictor.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

Uncle Rico

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2021, 10:08:02 AM »
How "accurate" is kenpom as a predictor in November, December and even January?

Maybe it's really accurate. I don't know; that's why I'm asking those who follow this stuff.

It just seems not too predictive this time of year, and yet it is still constantly referred to. But maybe it is a great predictor.

It is but it isn’t gospel.  That’s why they play the games. 
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

rocky_warrior

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2021, 10:19:32 AM »
How "accurate" is kenpom as a predictor in November, December and even January?

Not that great.  But it's the best we have.
“Normal is an illusion. What's normal for the spider is chaos for the fly.”  -Morticia Addams

Eye

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2021, 10:43:50 AM »
As a guy who picks in two season-long pools where you pick teams (one I'm in tonight 6 guys, pick 13 teams, guy whose group of 13 wins the most games all season through the national tourney game wins the pool, guy whose group wins 2nd most takes 2nd, etc) Ken Pom has some years where he's fantastic, others not so much. He says he's tweaked his formula after some of the others not so much years in recent years. Team Rankings also projects the rest of the season. IMHO I'd grade Pomeroy somewhere between a B and C, but as Rocky said, Pomeroy and Team Rankings seem to be about the best that are available.
GO WARRIORS!

MU82

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2021, 11:45:26 AM »
Not that great.  But it's the best we have.

OK, thanks. Makes sense.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

GB Warrior

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2021, 11:48:36 AM »
Kenpom has to be hard this year where there's been so much roster turnover. Much more so for MU where the entire roster is new and there is a new coach to boot.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2021, 11:49:06 AM »
Line is 2.5 now on the betting site i  use
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

Skatastrophy

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Re: Opening Line
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2021, 12:41:41 PM »
Kenpom has to be hard this year where there's been so much roster turnover. Much more so for MU where the entire roster is new and there is a new coach to boot.

Time for someone to ramp KenPom up on Value Add Basketball for a player-based approach over a team-based approach.