Gotta beat Ole Miss!!

[Viper]

I think everyone would agree we're going to have some ups and downs this year.  However, avoiding the "bad loss" is important down the road.  We also want to have as many quality win opportunities as possible.  Getting a win Thurs would probably give us two more opportunities for solid wins. 

BTW Wisconsin looked pretty awful last night.  They were without their best player but that team has limited talent.  And, as others pointed out, their constant complaining is infantile and totally inexcusable.  We all know Flopison's nonsense, perhaps he wasn't hugged as a child.  That's a game that should be in Milwaukee but we must take care of business and play with poise amidst what I suspect will be some dirty tactics.

IL didn’t have their best guy last night, yes? Probably a MU loss if the big Cock had played. I would cool the jets at this point. Are we suddenly confident MU is a ncaa tourney team? Im still hoping for a 16-18 win season as a mojo builder for bigger things. As for UW, RED isn’t bad on their court and they’ll be favored on 12/04 if they have full strength.
As always, better dead, than RED.

[MuggsyB]

IL didn’t have their best guy last night, yes? Probably a MU loss if the big Cock had played. I would cool the jets at this point. Are we suddenly confident MU is a ncaa tourney team? Im still hoping for a 16-18 win season as a mojo builder for bigger things. As for UW, RED isn’t bad on their court and they’ll be favored on 12/04 if they have full strength.
As always, better dead, than RED.

I'm not close to saying we're a tournament team.  I just hope we can shoot  and rebound better Thurs.  The game is quite important is what I think most people are conveying here.

[DegenerateDish]

Ole Miss should open around -5.5 to -6.5 over MU on Thursday.

[Jay Bee]

Ole Miss should open around -5.5 to -6.5 over MU on Thursday.

I’ll bet you it’ll be less. 2 to 3

[tower912]

Betting on what the Vegas line will be.    Meta. 

[StillWarriors]

  Will they be able to sustain the effort without the crowd?

And with back to back games given the style of play.

[LAZER]

Ole Miss should open around -5.5 to -6.5 over MU on Thursday.

Why do you think it'll be that big of a spread?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Last night was huge because it gives this team a chance.  Find a way go 2-1 in Charleston (even on the loser's side) and finish the non-con 4-1 (2-1 @Wisco, @KState and vs. UCLA, which will be tough), and you're likely in the convo with a .500 BE finish.  Even if you go 4-2 in non-con after a 2-1 Charleston trip, an 11-9 BE record probably gets you in.   

I didn't expect to be in the convo whatsoever, but I'd sure love to be wrong. 

That all being said, the boys did look pretty bad offensively for long stretches last night and Illinois and the refs did us a lot of favors.  Will be very interesting to see how the next 3 go. 

[BrewCity83]

I'm expecting Ole Miss -2.5 to -3

[DegenerateDish]

Why do you think it'll be that big of a spread?

It doesn’t matter what I think, it comes down to which analytics site one prefers.

I didn’t look up KenPom, I’m guessing JayBee is a Torvik fan though. The power rankings I’ve used for years has Ole Miss -6, Miya has it at -7 for Ole Miss, so it’s all over the board.

[Viper]

I'm not close to saying we're a tournament team.  I just hope we can shoot  and rebound better Thurs.  The game is quite important is what I think most people are conveying here.

I hear ya

[LAZER]

It doesn’t matter what I think, it comes down to which analytics site one prefers.

I didn’t look up KenPom, I’m guessing JayBee is a Torvik fan though. The power rankings I’ve used for years has Ole Miss -6, Miya has it at -7 for Ole Miss, so it’s all over the board.

Got it.  Torvik and KenPom are the 2.5-3 that JayBee mentioned. Haven't looked at Miya before, I'll have to start paying attention.

[DegenerateDish]

Got it.  Torvik and KenPom are the 2.5-3 that JayBee mentioned. Haven't looked at Miya before, I'll have to start paying attention.

Is KenPom at the same number as Torvik? I honestly don't know. ShotQuality didn't have it posted yet, or I just blatantly missed it there. If KenPom and Torvik have it at -3, I'd gather the books will have it there.

I would encourage people to look at different sites if they have time though. KenPom is McDonald's, I follow it, but everyone follows it, and obviously Ken's numbers set lines. There's enough data out there from other sites though to dig around. If anyone has some, I'm more than game to suggestions. The info has gotten so much better over the last five years, and you can hone in on areas (I've always liked first half plays).

shotquality.com (never seems to work in Chrome, but seems to work in Twitter's browser)
evanmiya.com
haslametrics.com (site always messes up my eyes, but I like the team write ups a lot)

[Lennys Tap]

Is KenPom at the same number as Torvik? I honestly don't know. ShotQuality didn't have it posted yet, or I just blatantly missed it there. If KenPom and Torvik have it at -3, I'd gather the books will have it there.

I would encourage people to look at different sites if they have time though. KenPom is McDonald's, I follow it, but everyone follows it, and obviously Ken's numbers set lines. There's enough data out there from other sites though to dig around. If anyone has some, I'm more than game to suggestions. The info has gotten so much better over the last five years, and you can hone in on areas (I've always liked first half plays).

shotquality.com (never seems to work in Chrome, but seems to work in Twitter's browser)
evanmiya.com
haslametrics.com (site always messes up my eyes, but I like the team write ups a lot)

Dish

Do any of the gambling sites use lines from rating services other than Pomeroy? A “middle” of  Ole Miss -3 and MU +6 would be a must play for big $$$.

[dgies9156]

Gotta beat.... EVERYONE

That's why you play the game.

[DegenerateDish]

Dish

Do any of the gambling sites use lines from rating services other than Pomeroy? A “middle” of  Ole Miss -3 and MU +6 would be a must play for big $$$.

Good question Lenny, I know early on in the season, books rely heavily (exclusively?) on KenPom, especially for creating totals. I really don’t have a great answer here. Part of the reason I’ve shied away from KenPom is because I feel the books rely on it so much (right or wrong on my end).

[5DollarPitcher]

The line will open at -3 or -3.5 favoring Ole Miss and move towards a pick ‘em as the public, who have been watching Havoc highlights on twitter all week, let the money flow in. My thought is it closes at -1.5 or -2.

-5 or more is off the table.

I’ll be sure to bump when I’m right.

[5DollarPitcher]

As far as actual game results are concerned:

This is a very traditional letdown spot. Going on the road after a huge, emotional win. However - I agree with the premise of what 82, Muggsy, and others have said, we should be locking in and treating this game as a must-win for legitimacy sake.

This game is the hump we could never quite make it over with Voldechowski. No excuses - we can win it. We will win it. No reason we can’t be a tourney team this year. It’ll be another close one though. I think we get hot from 3 and bring it home.

[jfp61]

I am guessing the games opens up close to a pick em. KP has Mississippi as the favorite by 3. But the SQ stats favor MU by a fair bit.

[NolongerWarriors]

As far as actual game results are concerned:

This is a very traditional letdown spot. Going on the road after a huge, emotional win. However - I agree with the premise of what 82, Muggsy, and others have said, we should be locking in and treating this game as a must-win for legitimacy sake.

This game is the hump we could never quite make it over with Voldechowski. No excuses - we can win it. We will win it. No reason we can’t be a tourney team this year. It’ll be another close one though. I think we get hot from 3 and bring it home.

Who even has the capability to get hot from 3?

[Herman Cain]

Who even has the capability to get hot from 3?

This individual is 42.3 % career 3 Pointers
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/greg-elliott-1.html

[brewcity77]

Who even has the capability to get hot from 3?

Morsell is currently shooting over 56% beyond the arc. Kolek knocked down 3+ threes on 12 occasions last year. If he plays, Greg is a career 42.3% shooter from deep. And many of the freshmen have the range to hit but haven't had the opportunities to show if they can or not, so until proven otherwise, Stevie, Kam, O-Max, and Joplin have the capability since they can make threes, they just haven't done it yet.

[GB Warrior]

This individual is 42.3 % career 3 Pointers
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/greg-elliott-1.html

Not back til game 2 of the this tournament, right?

[wadesworld]

Maybe some shots fall on some rims that aren't an NBA basket.

[avid1010]

Dish

Do any of the gambling sites use lines from rating services other than Pomeroy? A “middle” of  Ole Miss -3 and MU +6 would be a must play for big $$$.

Not much...because then all of us who bet would use KenPom and take their money...the same way we did before they decided they better just use Ken's numbers.  There is still money to be made playing Ken's numbers against the books for 1H O/U's in the mid-majors.  I'm not aware of anyone more accurate on college hoops.  If there out there...vegas will find them.  That said...I had Oregon -4 last night...