Gotta beat Ole Miss!!

[DoctorV]

Not back til game 2 of the this tournament, right?

I think but anyone certain?

Would be really nice if it was 4 games and included the exhibition. Anyone recall if it was announced before or after the exhibition?

It’s an internal suspension so Shaka can pretty much handle it as he chooses.
It would be really nice against a heavy zone team if he was back versus Ole Miss but my assumption was always 4 regular season games

[LAZER]

Is KenPom at the same number as Torvik? I honestly don't know. ShotQuality didn't have it posted yet, or I just blatantly missed it there. If KenPom and Torvik have it at -3, I'd gather the books will have it there.

I would encourage people to look at different sites if they have time though. KenPom is McDonald's, I follow it, but everyone follows it, and obviously Ken's numbers set lines. There's enough data out there from other sites though to dig around. If anyone has some, I'm more than game to suggestions. The info has gotten so much better over the last five years, and you can hone in on areas (I've always liked first half plays).

shotquality.com (never seems to work in Chrome, but seems to work in Twitter's browser)
evanmiya.com
haslametrics.com (site always messes up my eyes, but I like the team write ups a lot)

Torvik has it at 2.4 and Pomeroy has it at 3. Kenpom has Ole Miss at #53 and Torvik has them at #74, which seems like a pretty big discrepancy for the two sites.

[DegenerateDish]

Torvik has it at 2.4 and Pomeroy has it at 3. Kenpom has Ole Miss at #53 and Torvik has them at #74, which seems like a pretty big discrepancy for the two sites.

The rankings I use came down from -6 to -5.5 this morning, and Miya came down from -7 to -5.5 overnight. I guess we'll see soon enough where it comes in at.

Good back and forth, I by no means am retiring anytime soon from wagering, and hope I don't come off as a know it all (very far from it). I enjoy learning what works for people, finding value, and hoping to come out at the end of the day at 50.1%.

[Jay Bee]

The rankings I use came down from -6 to -5.5 this morning, and Miya came down from -7 to -5.5 overnight. I guess we'll see soon enough where it comes in at.

They must’ve read Scoop

[avid1010]

The rankings I use came down from -6 to -5.5 this morning, and Miya came down from -7 to -5.5 overnight. I guess we'll see soon enough where it comes in at.

Good back and forth, I by no means am retiring anytime soon from wagering, and hope I don't come off as a know it all (very far from it). I enjoy learning what works for people, finding value, and hoping to come out at the end of the day at 50.1%.

My friend...if you hit on 50.1% of your bets you are going to lose some serious cash. 

[DegenerateDish]

My friend...if you hit on 50.1% of your bets you are going to lose some serious cash.

50.1% cash...I know how vig works, thanks. I'm not betting -130 moneylines, or -115 spreads.

[DegenerateDish]

Line open now.

Ole Miss -5 (-110)

[MU82]

Oooh ... I think I like our guys getting 5.

Or I would if I bet on these things.

[DegenerateDish]

I’ll bet you it’ll be less. 2 to 3

Good thing we didn’t bet?

[DegenerateDish]

The line will open at -3 or -3.5 favoring Ole Miss and move towards a pick ‘em as the public, who have been watching Havoc highlights on twitter all week, let the money flow in. My thought is it closes at -1.5 or -2.

-5 or more is off the table.

I’ll be sure to bump when I’m right.

We’re all wrong sometimes, no sweat.

[Goose]

Picking games with this squad is going to be tough to do. My son got MU at 5-1 when they were down 12 in the second half on Monday and in game bets may be the way to go. That said, I would not take MU until they have a couple games of better shooting under their belt.

[5DollarPitcher]

We’re all wrong sometimes, no sweat.

Pardon me but what Sportsbook is live with this game right now??

OddsShark consensus spread is -3.5 at this moment. I see no line set at any reputable book. Caesars, MGM, offshores, don’t post until day of or very late the night before.

I did think something was off about your sources when you thought 50.1% keeps you in the green.

[DegenerateDish]

Pardon me but what Sportsbook is live with this game right now??

OddsShark consensus spread is -3.5 at this moment. I see no line set at any reputable book. Caesars, MGM, offshores, don’t post until day of or very late the night before.

I did think something was off about your sources when you thought 50.1% keeps you in the green.

Jesus…making money > losing money, that was my quote.

You were wrong, it’s totally fine. Have a great night.

[5DollarPitcher]

Jesus…making money > losing money, that was my quote.

You were wrong, it’s totally fine. Have a great night.

How about we wait until the real books come out?

[jficke13]

Are people really going that literally on the "be right 50.1% of the time" math? Come on, now. Did anyone here honestly not understand what that meant?

[DegenerateDish]

How about we wait until the real books come out?

So we should ignore the opening line? Which was the precipitous of the entire argument? And we should wait until “the real books come out”, who make a business decision to post numbers after the offshores so they can limit exposure to an opening line?

If you wanted to argue closing line, then that’s different, but trying to shift the goalposts now is dumb.

[5DollarPitcher]

So we should ignore the opening line? Which was the precipitous of the entire argument? And we should wait until “the real books come out”, who make a business decision to post numbers after the offshores so they can limit exposure to an opening line?

If you wanted to argue closing line, then that’s different, but trying to shift the goalposts now is dumb.

My definition of the opening line is what the reputable Vegas books open at. Caesars, MGM, Wynn. If your definition is different - sorry.

[Jay Bee]

My definition of the opening line is what the reputable Vegas books open at. Caesars, MGM, Wynn. If your definition is different - sorry.

Agreed

[mileskishnish72]

After reading this thread I checked Torvik's site, which I hadn't done in a long time. He has our chances of getting into the dance as less likely than DePaul's. Can that man be trusted?

[DegenerateDish]

My definition of the opening line is what the reputable Vegas books open at. Caesars, MGM, Wynn. If your definition is different - sorry.

You (!) referenced OddsShark earlier. Their opening line is literally -5!

This is comical. Dude, you and Jay Bee were wrong, just take the L already.

[Uncle Rico]

You (!) referenced OddsShark earlier. Their opening line is literally -5!

This is comical. Dude, you and Jay Bee were wrong, just take the L already.

Man, that ain’t happening with 5 Dollar B

[5DollarPitcher]

You (!) referenced OddsShark earlier. Their opening line is literally -5!

This is comical. Dude, you and Jay Bee were wrong, just take the L already.

I referenced OddsShark while simultaneously saying no reputable books posted a line yet. OddsShark is not a reputable book. It’s a guessing tool.

[DegenerateDish]

I referenced OddsShark while simultaneously saying no reputable books posted a line yet. OddsShark is not a reputable book. It’s a guessing tool.

OddsShark isn't even a book! It's literally a resource for providing info on lines. There's literally nothing for them to guess on! They get data from books and post it!

If you just Google "what is OddsShark?", this is what comes up:
Odds Shark is your one-stop shop for picks, odds, betting news and trends – a resource for fans, bettors and media outlets looking for wagering information on all the sports and pop culture events you could want.

[5DollarPitcher]

OddsShark isn't even a book! It's literally a resource for providing info on lines. There's literally nothing for them to guess on! They get data from books and post it!

If you just Google "what is OddsShark?", this is what comes up:
Odds Shark is your one-stop shop for picks, odds, betting news and trends – a resource for fans, bettors and media outlets looking for wagering information on all the sports and pop culture events you could want.

You’re proving my point. Which is - no reputable book has posted a line. Which means the opening line hasn’t come out yet per the common definition of the “opening line”.

[avid1010]

50.1% cash...I know how vig works, thanks. I'm not betting -130 moneylines, or -115 spreads.

Yeah...you're betting -110 unless you are on overseas books (and those are few and far between) with reduced juice...52.4% to break even.  Enlighten me though...