Marquette/UCLA

[MuggsyB]

Don't make this mistake of thinking that my prediction will have any impact on my presence at the Fiserv. I'll still be hooting and hollering for MU as loud as I can.

I don't discount the adrenaline of our players or the electricity of the Fiserv. I also don't discount the talent disparity between the two teams.

I don't disagree, but there's a lot of things that go into home court advantage besides fan support. Familiarity with court/shooting lines, most feel more comfortable/well rested sleeping at home rather than travelling, refs tend to have friendlier whistles for home teams (which theoretically could be impacted by fans), hell the home team even gets to pick which basketball is used.

Fair enough.  Maybe we add an additional player too.

[Scoop Snoop]

Attitude is actually important, even among fans.  Maybe this team will surprise the world?  We all understand this is a transition year but game to game anything can happen in college hoops.  We beat Nova like 5 yrs ago when they were #1, down 8, late in the game.  Do not discount the adrenalin of our players and the electricity of Fiserv when UCLA comes to town.  If fans did not have an impact on college hoops there would not be such a discrepancy between home vs away wins.

Muggsy, I sure hope that your optimism is proven vs. UCLA and we upset them. Nobody here would deny  your chance to crow "I told you so!". We would be ecstatically happy to have been wrong. The crowd, team and Shaka will all be pumped Big Time. No attitude problem. Its just that the talent and experience disparity between Marquette and UCLA is too great for many of us to expect an upset. Let's not turn this into a litmus test of Marquette fanhood. Your better than that. Again, I sure hope you prove us all wrong.

[MuggsyB]

Muggsy, I sure hope that your optimism is proven vs. UCLA and we upset them. Nobody here would deny  your chance to crow "I told you so!". We would be ecstatically happy to have been wrong. The crowd, team and Shaka will all be pumped Big Time. No attitude problem. Its just that the talent and experience disparity between Marquette and UCLA is too great for many of us to expect an upset. Let's not turn this into a litmus test of Marquette fanhood. Your better than that. Again, I sure hope you prove us all wrong.

That's fair S-Scoop.  No worries.  Sometimes I get carried away.

[brewcity77]

Disagreed.

Their tourney run was great. The rest of the year, they were a sub-40 bubbie team that barely made the field. You can believe the 5-game sample size or the 26-game sample size. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but the data from games 1-26 would slant that significantly towards the latter being closer to reality.

[Jay Bee]

If he's making shots, Juzang looks good. If not, meh. #KatinPartII

[wadesworld]

Their tourney run was great. The rest of the year, they were a sub-40 bubbie team that barely made the field. You can believe the 5-game sample size or the 26-game sample size. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but the data from games 1-26 would slant that significantly towards the latter being closer to reality.

You can say that about every team in the country save maybe 3-5 every year.  Yes, if you take away the best stretch of their season they might not look great.  But all in, they finished the season 13th on KenPom and return everyone with the exception of Chris Smith, who didn't play from January on due to a torn ACL anyway.  They also add Myles Johnson from Rutgers and top 10 recruit Peyton Watson, plus top 55 recruit Will McClendon and will have top 50 recruit Mac Etienne on the team for the full season this year instead of trying to jump in mid season.

They might not end up a top 5 team, but they're certainly better than fringe top 25.

[brewcity77]

Your kenpom argument is flawed because they were the 44th best team coming in. Tourney runs like like artificially inflate rankings because of the competition and other teams not playing as they get eliminated.

Maybe the UCLA that went 5-1 in the tourney with wins over Michigan and Alabama is who's coming back. Maybe it's the team that got lucky to escape Michigan State & play Abilene Christian. Maybe it's the one that went 5-7 with losses to bad Stanford, Wazzu, & Oregon State teams leading into the tournament.

I think it's reasonable that their additions move them up 20-25 spots in the national pecking order, but that puts them in the 20-25 range, not top-5. I think 15-20 is probably about right.

[Jockey]

Is it "realistic" we will be 20 point underdogs on our home floor???  Let's go now.  This is college hoops where there are rarely dominant teams in recent years.

We only have 3 guys who played even a single game at MU. We have 7 freshmen. 20 points sounds very reasonable - maybe even generous.

[wadesworld]

Your kenpom argument is flawed because they were the 44th best team coming in. Tourney runs like like artificially inflate rankings because of the competition and other teams not playing as they get eliminated.

Maybe the UCLA that went 5-1 in the tourney with wins over Michigan and Alabama is who's coming back. Maybe it's the team that got lucky to escape Michigan State & play Abilene Christian. Maybe it's the one that went 5-7 with losses to bad Stanford, Wazzu, & Oregon State teams leading into the tournament.

I think it's reasonable that their additions move them up 20-25 spots in the national pecking order, but that puts them in the 20-25 range, not top-5. I think 15-20 is probably about right.

But the KenPom number includes non tourney games. They played those games, and they played well in those games, so their overall KenPom numbers went up. It includes their 5-7 record in that 12 game stretch.

They were a team that played in a tougher conference than people thought, went through a rough patch down the stretch of the regular season, and then played their best basketball to end the season. All in all it added up to a 13 in KenPom. And they outplayed Gonzaga for much of the Final Four game, too.

I can buy them not automatically being a top 5 team. I don't think anybody will have them towards the bottom of the top 25.

[Herman Cain]

Jaime Jaquez is a fun player to watch on UCLA. Old school style player who grew up wanting to play for The Bruins.

[Scoop Snoop]

We only have 3 guys who played even a single game at MU. We have 7 freshmen. 20 points sounds very reasonable - maybe even generous.

Our scholarship chart shows five. How did you come up with seven?

The point that we are have a very young team with a lot of freshmen and sophomores is spot on though. Two returnees with a fair number of minutes plus a returnee with very limited minutes does not make me confident of an upset win.

[brewcity77]

But the KenPom number includes non tourney games. They played those games, and they played well in those games, so their overall KenPom numbers went up. It includes their 5-7 record in that 12 game stretch.

They played like the 44th best team for 26 games. They played like the 4th best team for 5 games.

Tourney games are inflated because after the first round, only 32 teams are generating data. After the second, only 16, and so on, so UCLA's data gets overweighted against teams that are inactive.

While I understand how it equated to 13th, I'm very skeptical that 5 games of data outweighs 26.

[Jockey]

Our scholarship chart shows five. How did you come up with seven?

The point that we are have a very young team with a lot of freshmen and sophomores is spot on though. Two returnees with a fair number of minutes plus a returnee with very limited minutes does not make me confident of an upset win.

Because of the extra year for Covid. OMP and Kolek are considered redshirt freshman because of the free year.

[brewcity77]

I can buy them not automatically being a top 5 team. I don't think anybody will have them towards the bottom of the top 25.

Also, I get the top-5 argument. Improvement from UCLA and attrition from other teams could realistically make it the case. All I'm saying is while there's a reasonable top-5 argument, there's also a perfectly reasonable 20-30 argument.

[79Warrior]

They played like the 44th best team for 26 games. They played like the 4th best team for 5 games.

Tourney games are inflated because after the first round, only 32 teams are generating data. After the second, only 16, and so on, so UCLA's data gets overweighted against teams that are inactive.

While I understand how it equated to 13th, I'm very skeptical that 5 games of data outweighs 26.

Whatever. They had a great run. Any fan would take it.

[Its DJOver]

I mean, does it really matter.  Whether they deserve it or not, they're going to come into Milwaukee as either a top 10 team or a top 5 team.  If I thought we had any chance at a bid, it'd be worth keeping tabs on whether they'd end up Q1A or Q1B, but we're going to be nowhere near the bubble so...NIT resume booster?

[Herman Cain]

We  were reasonably close against UCLA on the road last year. The Bruins pulled away toward the end of the game .

I think we can put up a good performance this year . Should be a packed house on a Friday or Saturday night.

[PGsHeroes32]

Also, I get the top-5 argument. Improvement from UCLA and attrition from other teams could realistically make it the case. All I'm saying is while there's a reasonable top-5 argument, there's also a perfectly reasonable 20-30 argument.

Granted overall we had a better regular season.

That MU team the Hausers final year had an absolute melt down down the stretch and lost first round to a 12 seed.

Before the Hausers transferred there were people having us as high as 2 I believe.

You are vastly under estimating how returning literally every single player(plus adding huge pieces) means early season. Most of the top 25 teams have major losses.

[Nukem2]

We  were reasonably close against UCLA on the road last year. The Bruins pulled away toward the end of the game .

I think we can put up a good performance this year . Should be a packed house on a Friday or Saturday night.

Packed house aside, MU returns 15 points and 4 rebounds off the bench from that game.  That's it.   

[brewcity77]

Granted overall we had a better regular season.

That MU team the Hausers final year had an absolute melt down down the stretch and lost first round to a 12 seed.

Before the Hausers transferred there were people having us as high as 2 I believe.

You are vastly under estimating how returning literally every single player(plus adding huge pieces) means early season. Most of the top 25 teams have major losses.

Actually, that's not usually true. It's an often believed fallacy. Teams that return everyone usually end up with similar results to the team before. UCLA might be in better position because they return everyone and add key pieces (as 2019-20 Marquette was slated to do with McEwen) but that Marquette team spent most of the year in the top-15 as opposed to this UCLA team that spent most of the year outside the top-30.

[PGsHeroes32]

Actually, that's not usually true. It's an often believed fallacy. Teams that return everyone usually end up with similar results to the team before. UCLA might be in better position because they return everyone and add key pieces (as 2019-20 Marquette was slated to do with McEwen) but that Marquette team spent most of the year in the top-15 as opposed to this UCLA team that spent most of the year outside the top-30.

I said how much it means EARLY in the season. And if UCLA ends up with similar results that puts them around 13 then apparently which is still far better than fringe 25.

Yes that Marquette team did spend most of the year in the top-15 I literally said that they had the overall better regular season. That MU team also ended in a complete disaster and people still loved us for the next year.

Which blatantly proves the point

[MU82]

You are vastly under estimating how returning literally every single player(plus adding huge pieces) means early season.

Actually, that's not usually true. It's an often believed fallacy. Teams that return everyone usually end up with similar results to the team before.

I'd be interested in evidence supporting what each of you is claiming, given that you take opposing viewpoints.

[MU82]

Maybe the UCLA that went 5-1 in the tourney with wins over Michigan and Alabama is who's coming back. Maybe it's the team that got lucky to escape Michigan State & play Abilene Christian.

Yeah. What luck to play Abilene Christian in the NCAA tournament! Any coach would want to play them. An easy victory every single time!

[brewcity77]

Yeah. What luck to play Abilene Christian in the NCAA tournament! Any coach would want to play them. An easy victory every single time!

14-seeds have beat 3-seeds 22 times in the history of the tournament. Those 14 seeds are 2-20 in the second round. I'd say being given 91% odds of winning a second round NCAA game is pretty lucky.

[MU82]

14-seeds have beat 3-seeds 22 times in the history of the tournament. Those 14 seeds are 2-20 in the second round. I'd say being given 91% odds of winning a second round NCAA game is pretty lucky.

Yeah, I was just havin' a little fun.

Because nobody would ever lose to a team of midgets that couldn't shoot.