2021-2022 NFL Season

[Dish]

CMC's last year as a Panther will be next year, they have a reasonable out on his contract after next year. There's no way they can count on him to stay healthy and carry a cap hit of $17 million (even with the cap likely head up by 2023/2024.

[StillAWarrior]

McCaffrey ... ankle injury ... done for the season.

Ugh. Can this season get any worse?

I love McCaffrey (and his dad was one of my favorite players ever...I'll always associate 911 with Ed because I learned about the first airplane when I got online to check on McCaffrey's injury from the night before).

But, this is why NFL teams are reluctant to break the bank on long-term deals for running backs. The shelf life is extremely short these days.

[Jockey]

Still trying to figure out why, when the Colts were up 10 in the second half, the Colts went 18 straight plays without handing the ball off to Jonathon Taylor.

Most coaches aren't as smart as they want us to think they are. Once they started giving it to Taylor, it was like a hot knife through butter.

[Jockey]

If someone had told me at the beginning of the season that GB's defensive success was going to depend on Rasul Douglas & Eric Stokes, I would have thought 3-9 instead of 9-3.

[Uncle Rico]

Allegedly, Aranda is signing an extension at Baylor.

[StillAWarrior]

But, this is why NFL teams are reluctant to break the bank on long-term deals for running backs. The shelf life is extremely short these days.

Responding to my own post...love it when people do that.

But this got me curious and I was looking at some stuff.

On just averages, I found a site that broke it down by position. I can't vouch for the site, but I'll assume it's accurate. In order, by position, it lists the averages as:

• QB - $5.6 million
• LT - $3.7
• RT - $3.4
• FS - $3.3
• DE - $2.8
• OLB - $2.7
• DL - $2.7
• SS - $2.6
• DT - $2.6
• ILB - $2.4
• G - $2.4
• WR - $2.4
• C - $2.3
• CB - $2.2
• TE - $1.9
• K - $1.8
• RB - $1.7
• Special Teams - $1.4
• P - $1.4
• FB - $1.3

It's kind of surprising when you realize the impact that top RBs have on the game. Of course there are plenty out there with good contracts...but the average is surprisingly low.


Another very interesting thing to me was a Bleacher Report page I came across that had averages from 2012. Especially interesting was comparing the top salaries for QBs for that year (in the $20 million range) with top salaries for QBs this year (in the $30 million dollar range). Then compare the top salaries for RBs in 2012 (AP at $13.7 million and then the rest at $10 million or below) with the top salaries for RBs in 2021 (Henry at $13.5 and the rest at $10 million or below). It's an interesting illustration on how the relative perceived value of RBs has stagnated in the last decade.

[jficke13]

Responding to my own post...love it when people do that.

But this got me curious and I was looking at some stuff.

On just averages, I found a site that broke it down by position. I can't vouch for the site, but I'll assume it's accurate. In order, by position, it lists the averages as:

• QB - $5.6 million
• LT - $3.7
• RT - $3.4
• FS - $3.3
• DE - $2.8
• OLB - $2.7
• DL - $2.7
• SS - $2.6
• DT - $2.6
• ILB - $2.4
• G - $2.4
• WR - $2.4
• C - $2.3
• CB - $2.2
• TE - $1.9
• K - $1.8
• RB - $1.7
• Special Teams - $1.4
• P - $1.4
• FB - $1.3

It's kind of surprising when you realize the impact that top RBs have on the game. Of course there are plenty out there with good contracts...but the average is surprisingly low.


Another very interesting thing to me was a Bleacher Report page I came across that had averages from 2012. Especially interesting was comparing the top salaries for QBs for that year (in the $20 million range) with top salaries for QBs this year (in the $30 million dollar range). Then compare the top salaries for RBs in 2012 (AP at $13.7 million and then the rest at $10 million or below) with the top salaries for RBs in 2021 (Henry at $13.5 and the rest at $10 million or below). It's an interesting illustration on how the relative perceived value of RBs has stagnated in the last decade.

I think the issue is that the distribution of RB-quality is so non-linear. On one hand you have game breakers who "impact a game" so highly. But these are few and far between. Maybe only 1-3 backs in the league are on this level. Then you have a massive pool of "replacement level" quality backs. With the blocking systems that teams are using, I think the analytics are saying essentially, there's no difference between random mid-round-pick Rookie A, random mid-round-pick Rookie B, and veteran on second contract C, except the Vet has a perceived higher risk of injury and definitely a higher salary. So why not just plug and play dudes at RB, hope to catch lightning in a bottle, and limit your dead money risk?

[StillAWarrior]

I think the issue is that the distribution of RB-quality is so non-linear. On one hand you have game breakers who "impact a game" so highly. But these are few and far between. Maybe only 1-3 backs in the league are on this level. Then you have a massive pool of "replacement level" quality backs. With the blocking systems that teams are using, I think the analytics are saying essentially, there's no difference between random mid-round-pick Rookie A, random mid-round-pick Rookie B, and veteran on second contract C, except the Vet has a perceived higher risk of injury and definitely a higher salary. So why not just plug and play dudes at RB, hope to catch lightning in a bottle, and limit your dead money risk?

I think you're absolutely correct. If you can get a Christian McCaffrey, he's a game changer and you should get him. If not, any old back will do (obvious hyperbole). But, even if you get a McCaffrey, he may only be at that elite level for a year or two.

[MU82]

CMC's last year as a Panther will be next year, they have a reasonable out on his contract after next year. There's no way they can count on him to stay healthy and carry a cap hit of $17 million (even with the cap likely head up by 2023/2024.

The contract really becomes easy to get out of after the 2023 season, but we'll see. He's pretty much become the face of the franchise, as well as the team's best player. But it's hard to say you can depend on him, that's for sure.

403 touches in 2019.
10 games played combined in 2020 and 2021.
Not a coincidence.

And the worst part of it is that they gave him 111 of those touches in the last four games of the season, when it was clear the Panthers weren't going to the playoffs

Yeah, they were (and he was) consumed with the 1000-1000 thing in 2019. It was stoopid ... but he was young and he had never been hurt in his entire career, so there probably was a feeling of invincibility.

Only a couple of the injuries were wear-and-tear kind of things. The shoulder injury he suffered last year came on the kind of hit any player at any position can get. And his first injury this season was a non-contact thing. But it's hard to make a case that his usage hasn't contributed to the accumulation of injuries, so I sure won't make it.

But, this is why NFL teams are reluctant to break the bank on long-term deals for running backs. The shelf life is extremely short these days.

I hear ya.

I've been around for awhile and seen a lot of football (because I'm old), so I try not to throw around superlatives that aren't justified. McCaffrey has the best hands I've ever seen on a running back. Some of the catches he makes are ridiculous.

So I do think there is a way for McCaffrey to contribute to an NFL team for a long time without taking the pounding that a starting tailback takes. He could be more of a WR hybrid -- line up in the slot, on the outside or in the backfield, kind of the way the Panthers used Curtis Samuel or the 49ers sometimes use Deebo Samuel. (I guess he'd have to change his name to Christian Samuel!) Could prolong his career perhaps?

Something to think about. He's too good a football player to not play.

[The Sultan]

I think you're absolutely correct. If you can get a Christian McCaffrey, he's a game changer and you should get him. If not, any old back will do (obvious hyperbole). But, even if you get a McCaffrey, he may only be at that elite level for a year or two.

But is he really a game changer?  They have a losing record in the games in which he has played.  They made the playoffs once with zero playoff wins.

Sure he is an "elite running back," but I'm not sure what that actually gets you these days.

So I do think there is a way for McCaffrey to contribute to an NFL team for a long time without taking the pounding that a starting tailback takes. He could be more of a WR hybrid -- line up in the slot, on the outside or in the backfield, kind of the way the Panthers used Curtis Samuel or the 49ers sometimes use Deebo Samuel. (I guess he'd have to change his name to Christian Samuel!) Could prolong his career perhaps?

Something to think about. He's too good a football player to not play.

And this is a good take.  More of a receiver who can occasionally run the ball than a running back who catches.  Makes perfect sense to me.

[Billy Hoyle]

Allegedly, Aranda is signing an extension at Baylor.

considering they encourage him to cheat it staying make sense.

[Uncle Rico]

considering they encourage him to cheat it staying make sense.

Nobody cares

[Billy Hoyle]

403 touches in 2019.
10 games played combined in 2020 and 2021.
Not a coincidence.

And the worst part of it is that they gave him 111 of those touches in the last four games of the season, when it was clear the Panthers weren't going to the playoffs

Saw an archived interview with Marshall Faulk on Dan Patrick this morning and he told the story of how the Colts told him he was going to get fewer carries but more screen passes and it would prolong his career. Instead of getting hit by multiple 300 pound defensive linemen on screens it would be by LB's and secondary players. Considering 1/3 of his touches are receptions his body shouldn't be breaking down so soon (though he did have 590 carries in two years at Stanford).

[Billy Hoyle]

Nobody cares

no, Baylor doesn't (considering the AD enables him). They don't care about must at Baylor.

[Uncle Rico]

no, Baylor doesn't (considering the AD enables him). They don't care about must at Baylor.

Nobody cares

[Pakuni]

considering they encourage him to cheat it staying make sense.

Source?

[Herman Cain]

The end of the Bucs-Colts game illustrates why guys just stop running at the 1 instead of scoring a TD like Fournette did.

Fournette stopped at the 1, the Bucs would have won on a chip-shot FG as time expired. The only chance the Colts had was if Fournette scored. The only chance.

So Indy actually was lucky Fournette scored ... and then the Colts almost made the Bucs pay when their return guy just about took the ensuing kickoff to the house.

Fortunately for TB, one of their guys made the tackle at the TB 30, and then Wentz made a bad decision on his first pass, necessitating a Hail Mary attempt that failed. Had Wentz just taken a 10-15 yard pass over the middle, Indy still had a TO and it would have set up a realistic 15-20 yard pass into the end zone.

In todays Bucs  Press Conference , Bruce  Arians said that in hindsight he wished Fournette stopped at the 1 yesterday against The Colts[/b]

[MU82]

In todays Bucs  Press Conference , Bruce  Arians said that in hindsight he wished Fournette stopped at the 1 yesterday against The Colts[/b]

Of course. But it's easier to prepare your guy to do that if he's running from the 4 than from the 30. But he should have!

[Dr. Blackheart]

no, Baylor doesn't (considering the AD enables him). They don't care about must at Baylor.

Hey, that's Cheeks best man you are talking about.

[Dish]

We'll find out on Tuesday if Bears/Packers gets flexed to Niners/Bengals. It's an interesting broadcast schedule that week. CBS has a loaded schedule that day, and Fox gets both NYC teams.

You can bet Packers/Ravens gets a later time slot the following week. I'd be very surprised if that game stays a noon kick.

Bears/Packers stays as the Sunday night game. Niners/Bengals gets flexed to the late afternoon, and CBS picks up Saints/Jets to break up the Fox NYC monopoly that week.

Packers/Ravens does indeed shift to the late afternoon slot the following week.

[tower912]

Lions not in prime time ?!?!?!

[Hards Alumni]

The number of unvaccinated Packers players is really making it hard for me to root for this team.

[BM1090]

The number of unvaccinated Packers players is really making it hard for me to root for this team.

Who now? Campbell?

[Hards Alumni]

Who now? Campbell?

yeah

[hairy worthen]

The number of unvaccinated Packers players is really making it hard for me to root for this team.

Do you know that he has not been vaccinated?  I haven't seen that reported. Adams was out with covid and he was vaccinated.