2021-2022 NFL Season

[Herman Cain]

Good stuff, Dish.

One thing that only I may find interesting is how everyone is completely disregarding the Super Bowl loser's hangover when it comes to the Chiefs. And perhaps Mahomes is good enough that it ought to be disregarded.
Chiefs are solid favorites to win the Super Bowl, and huge favorites to win the AFC, but only three of the past 27 Super Bowl losers have made it back the following season. History says someone else is winning the AFC this season. But again, maybe Mahomes > history.

I am in the camp that says Chiefs win AFC and Super Bowl.

Talent like Mahomes has is hard to stop.

[Dish]

Good stuff, Dish.

One thing that only I may find interesting is how everyone is completely disregarding the Super Bowl loser's hangover when it comes to the Chiefs. And perhaps Mahomes is good enough that it ought to be disregarded.
Chiefs are solid favorites to win the Super Bowl, and huge favorites to win the AFC, but only three of the past 27 Super Bowl losers have made it back the following season. History says someone else is winning the AFC this season. But again, maybe Mahomes > history.

I 100% agree with you, I think that AFC West is the most exciting division to watch this year. The Raiders last year head to head out scored KC. Chargers & Broncos both should be good as well, I took a small flyer on LAC to win that division.

I'm with you though on the SB hangover. Also the KC offensive line...wait to see. I think they still have questions defensively and like any team, a couple injuries could cause big problems.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Good stuff, Dish.

One thing that only I may find interesting is how everyone is completely disregarding the Super Bowl loser's hangover when it comes to the Chiefs. And perhaps Mahomes is good enough that it ought to be disregarded.
Chiefs are solid favorites to win the Super Bowl, and huge favorites to win the AFC, but only three of the past 27 Super Bowl losers have made it back the following season. History says someone else is winning the AFC this season. But again, maybe Mahomes > history.

Bills

[Uncle Rico]

5 Bold NFL Predictions:

1. The Buccs miss the playoffs
2. NFC Super Bowl rep is a team no one sees coming
3. Justin Fields wins OROY
4. Chargers win the AFC West
5. Justin Herbert wins the MVP

[Dish]

5 Bold NFL Predictions:

1. The Buccs miss the playoffs
2. NFC Super Bowl rep is a team no one sees coming
3. Justin Fields wins OROY
4. Chargers win the AFC West
5. Justin Herbert wins the MVP

I certainly appreciate the boldness, but I just can't see the Bucs missing the playoffs. Even if Brady got hurt, they have the fourth easiest schedule in the league.

They get the Eagles, Bears, Giants, Jets. That's 4 wins, and even if they went 3-3 within their division, that's 7 wins right there.

That's 7 wins without including games with Dallas (at full health), Indy, WFT, Miami, NE...all of whom may be decent, but probably not stalwarts.

[Herman Cain]

I certainly appreciate the boldness, but I just can't see the Bucs missing the playoffs. Even if Brady got hurt, they have the fourth easiest schedule in the league.

They get the Eagles, Bears, Giants, Jets. That's 4 wins, and even if they went 3-3 within their division, that's 7 wins right there.

That's 7 wins without including games with Dallas (at full health), Indy, WFT, Miami, NE...all of whom may be decent, but probably not stalwarts.

Also The Bucs returned their entire starting lineup. Not something that happens often in the NFL

[The Sultan]

Who's going to beat the Bucs in the NFC South?  The Panthers and Falcons are mediocre at best, and the Saints have two not-great options at QB.

If Brady gets hurt, I can see things falling apart around them a bit, but I think the only near locks for the playoffs in the NFC are the Bucs and the Packers.

[Pakuni]

5 Bold NFL Predictions:

1. The Buccs miss the playoffs
2. NFC Super Bowl rep is a team no one sees coming
3. Justin Fields wins OROY
4. Chargers win the AFC West
5. Justin Herbert wins the MVP

These certainly are bold.
A couple of thoughts:

Playing in a division in which the second-best team is led by Jameis Winston, things would have to go off the rails in epic fashion for the Bucs to miss the playoffs. Hard to imagine them not going at least 6-2 in the division. And in the NFC, nine wins may be good enough for the playoffs.

As for Herbert and the Chargers, he may due for a regression this year. His deep ball and under pressure numbers were unusual last year, especially the latter given his far lower success rate (relative to the rest of the league) in a clean pocket*. Maybe Herbert is just remarkably better under pressure than in a clean pocket, but more likely those numbers aren't sustainable.
On top of that possible regression, they have a new and pretty green coaching staff. Brandon Staley may prove to be a great coach, but he's just five years removed from being a D-III coordinator, has zero experience as a head coach and only one season as an NFL coordinator. Their defensive coordinator has two seasons as a primary NFL position coach under his belt and has never been a coordinator at any level.
They may all turn out great, but there's a lot of opportunity for rookie mistakes from that bunch.


* Just to add some context here, Herbert ranked 1st in the NFL under pressure last year, per Pro Football Focus, but 26th from a clean pocket. That's a massive disparity and it seems unlikely there wasn't at least a fair amount of luck involved. Not only that, but his under pressure rating was better than anything Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson has ever put up, and better than Aaron Rodgers in all but one season.
Again, hard to imagine that being sustainable.

[Uncle Rico]

These certainly are bold.
A couple of thoughts:

Playing in a division in which the second-best team is led by Jameis Winston, things would have to go off the rails in epic fashion for the Bucs to miss the playoffs. Hard to imagine them not going at least 6-2 in the division. And in the NFC, nine wins may be good enough for the playoffs.

As for Herbert and the Chargers, he may due for a regression this year. His deep ball and under pressure numbers were unusual last year, especially the latter given his far lower success rate (relative to the rest of the league) in a clean pocket*. Maybe Herbert is just remarkably better under pressure than in a clean pocket, but more likely those numbers aren't sustainable.
On top of that possible regression, they have a new and pretty green coaching staff. Brandon Staley may prove to be a great coach, but he's just five years removed from being a D-III coordinator, has zero experience as a head coach and only one season as an NFL coordinator. Their defensive coordinator has two seasons as a primary NFL position coach under his belt and has never been a coordinator at any level.
They may all turn out great, but there's a lot of opportunity for rookie mistakes from that bunch.


* Just to add some context here, Herbert ranked 1st in the NFL under pressure last year, per Pro Football Focus, but 26th from a clean pocket. That's a massive disparity and it seems unlikely there wasn't at least a fair amount of luck involved. Not only that, but his under pressure rating was better than anything Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson has ever put up, and better than Aaron Rodgers in all but one season.
Again, hard to imagine that being sustainable.

Well, they weren't lukewarm predictions

[MUBurrow]

Bills

History never says the Bills are winning.

[Jockey]

5 Bold NFL Predictions:

1. The Buccs miss the playoffs
2. NFC Super Bowl rep is a team no one sees coming
3. Justin Fields wins OROY
4. Chargers win the AFC West
5. Justin Herbert wins the MVP

I'll gladly disagree with all 5.

[GB Warrior]

History never says the Bills are winning.

Now that the Bucks have won an NBA championship, we can repurpose the #NTTB hashtag.

[Dish]

-I think Baltimore misses the playoffs (+250 to miss). There's usually one team every year coming out of the preseason that seems destined to be cursed that year, and I think it's Baltimore this year.

Just announced...Marcus Peters AND Gus Edwards now both out for the year with torn ACL's.

BTW...You can still get Ravens at +250 to miss the playoffs...just saying.

[Pakuni]

Just announced...Marcus Peters AND Gus Edwards now both out for the year with torn ACL's.

BTW...You can still get Ravens at +250 to miss the playoffs...just saying.

You can still get Raiders +4 Monday night.
Brutal for a team to lose its #1, #2, and #3 RBs before the season even starts.

[Jockey]

Just announced...Marcus Peters AND Gus Edwards now both out for the year with torn ACL's.

BTW...You can still get Ravens at +250 to miss the playoffs...just saying.

Looks like they will be the jinxed team this year.

[GB Warrior]

Because of the pandemic, 2020 never ended and thus Lamar Jackson is still the Madden cover athlete and remains subject to the curse

[hairy worthen]

Who's going to beat the Bucs in the NFC South?  The Panthers and Falcons are mediocre at best, and the Saints have two not-great options at QB.

If Brady gets hurt, I can see things falling apart around them a bit, but I think the only near locks for the playoffs in the NFC are the Bucs and the Packers.

Brady didnt get them to the super bowl last year, their defense did. TB near locks for playoffs Brady or no Brady.

[Dish]

I've always kinda hated interceptions as a true QB stat. As an example, Brady has technically thrown 2 interceptions tonight. But neither was close to his fault. Hail Mary picks...no big deal at all. The other pick was clearly a juggle drop by Fournette.

I'm not trying to be a Brady apologist here, but that stat has always needed a modifier in my book.

[forgetful]

Brady didnt get them to the super bowl last year, their defense did. TB near locks for playoffs Brady or no Brady.

This, they have a top 5 defense. A top 5 offensive line, and arguably the best receiving corp in the entire NFL.

It would take a colossal failure to not make the playoffs. And they should win the championship.

[JWags85]

I've always kinda hated interceptions as a true QB stat. As an example, Brady has technically thrown 2 interceptions tonight. But neither was close to his fault. Hail Mary picks...no big deal at all. The other pick was clearly a juggle drop by Fournette.

I'm not trying to be a Brady apologist here, but that stat has always needed a modifier in my book.

I don't disagree.  Tipped picks have always been a point of annoyance for me.  You have a QB buried for 3 INTs in a game and all 3 of them hit the WR in the hands.  When something like a WR breaking the wrong way happens, that's bad luck but it's an INT.  Tips and juggles leading to INTs sucks for stat reasons

[forgetful]

Officials gift one to TB. Miss a blatant offensive pass interference.

Wouldn't have mattered though if the Dallas Kicker could have made some easy ones.

[MU82]

I've always kinda hated interceptions as a true QB stat. As an example, Brady has technically thrown 2 interceptions tonight. But neither was close to his fault. Hail Mary picks...no big deal at all. The other pick was clearly a juggle drop by Fournette.

I'm not trying to be a Brady apologist here, but that stat has always needed a modifier in my book.

I don't disagree, but ...

When a QB dumps a 1-yard pass to a RB, who then weaves 90 yards for a TD, the QB gets credit for a 91-yard TD pass. Or when a bad pass goes through the hands of a DB and into the arms of a WR, who then goes for a TD, the QB gets credit for a TD pass. So I think it all evens out in the wash.

RELATED: The Bucs look like a very good team, clearly the class of an OK-at-best division, but I think the 17-0 talk is just dopey. They showed tonight that they are hardly invincible. They lost 6 games last season, and they'll lose a few this season. It will be interesting to see if other good offensive teams can take advantage of their weak pass defense the way Dak and the Cowboys did.

[Herman Cain]

Bucs weak pass defense takes away their advantage in rushing the passer . Maybe they should look into Richard Sherman.

Two big positives for the Bucs were Gronk and Antonio Brown. Who appear to be in peak form .

Brady just keeps rolling down the river .

Bucs had no running attack . Which was surprising .

Dak look very good out there for the Cowboys.

[MU82]

The Athletic did it's "NFL 100" -- its attempt to pick the greatest 100 NFL players ever, in order. They released their list a few at a time, and counted down the top 10 one at a time each of the last several days, finally ending with No. 1.

https://theathletic.com/2685622/2021/09/08/the-nfl-100-from-derrick-brooks-to-tom-brady-the-athletic-finds-the-best-players-in-football-history/

For those who don't subscribe, here's their top 10:

1. Tom Brady

2. Jim Brown

3. Jerry Rice

4. Lawrence Taylor

5. Reggie White

6. Joe Montana

7. Peyton Manning

8. Walter Payton

9. Johnny Unitas

10. Dick Butkus

These kinds of things are always subjective, and the whole idea is to be conversation starters. I definitely could quibble with a couple of those, and maybe the order, but those are 10 important, tremendously productive, all-time superstars. And I think I'd have the exact same first 4 in the exact same order.

The three guys I remember thinking, at the time, were the greatest I ever saw -- guys who made me say, "Damn, he's the best ever!" -- were O.J. Simpson, Lawrence Taylor and Dan Marino. But as time passes, we get perspective, and also more players come aboard who are better. Marino, for example ... there never had been a guy like him. But as productive as he was, he couldn't elevate his team to the promised land, and he often contributed to the big-game losses with poor play. So despite his talent, he's been passed by numerous players. The Athletic has him at 18.

[The Sultan]

Dick Butkus?  😂😂😂

Wasn't even best at his position.