[Paint Touches] 2021 minute projections

[PaintTouches]

I like to put a marker down before the season starts to be able to look back and laugh at in a few months. Bookmark this and feel free to do so as well.

https://painttouches.com/2020/11/23/marquette-minute-projections-for-2021/

I did try to go pretty heavy on my rationale, so interested to hear what you all are feeling as well. More on that later today.

[Galway Eagle]

Koby better have drastically improved or returned to his freshman self if he's playing that much

[Its DJOver]

Don't think the rotation will be that deep.  Wojo has yet to have a team with 10 guys (who play the entire season) average double digit mpg.  Not sure who will end up drawing the short straw though.  It'll depend on how ready the Freshman/Jose and Dex are.

[wadesworld]

DJ 30
Koby 26
Dawson 26
Theo 24
Dexter 21
Jose 18
Jamal 16
Greg 15
Symir 14
Justin 10

A little worried about what this long period of time not practicing will do with Dexter, though.  You can probably take about 3 from him and 2 from Jose and give those 5 to Oso, mostly in garbage time for him.

[BCHoopster]

DJ 30
Koby 26
Dawson 26
Theo 24
Dexter 21
Jose 18
Jamal 16
Greg 15
Symir 14
Justin 10

A little worried about what this long period of time not practicing will do with Dexter, though.  You can probably take about 3 from him and 2 from Jose and give those 5 to Oso, mostly in garbage time for him.

Dexter will be lucky to get 10 minutes a game the first month, Torrence might start so I think he might be closer to 22 minutes, and you are way
off on Justin, he is a 20 minute player from what I can see.  Probably they will play offense, defense last 5 minutes with Theo and Justin.

[PaintTouches]

Don't think the rotation will be that deep.  Wojo has yet to have a team with 10 guys (who play the entire season) average double digit mpg.  Not sure who will end up drawing the short straw though.  It'll depend on how ready the Freshman/Jose and Dex are.

Yea, I agree that it's not sustainable to have 10 players at double digit minutes, particularly under Wojo. I do think someone like Jose plays more early on (while Greg and Dex get up to full health/speed) but then his minutes will diminish later in the season. So not all averages are always equal.

If anyone is interested, I built a Google Sheet to crowdsource some projections. Feel free to put your best guesses there. (And make sure to input 0s in all the empty cells, as it messes with the crowdsourced average.)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-nvfGS7aaq-oZnsunRv5O7fjkDFaK5q3lrDAjkpCeMw/edit?usp=sharing

[1318WWells]

Dexter will be lucky to get 10 minutes a game the first month, Torrence might start so I think he might be closer to 22 minutes, and you are way
off on Justin, he is a 20 minute player from what I can see.  Probably they will play offense, defense last 5 minutes with Theo and Justin.

Agreed on Justin. I think 2 of Dawson, Theo and Justin will be on floor at all times. Jose is still back of rotation player. He will have flashes, but we'll be a better team if Justin, Dex and Cain are playing at least twice a much as him.

[PGsHeroes32]

DJ is gonna get more than 30 per game by the time the season is done I think.

Obviously a huge factor in these projections will be Theo's foul trouble. If hes routinely in good shape fouls wise I think he will consistently nail the 25 minute mark. But if he gets two quickies most of his first halfs those minutes will drop big and he will be closer to what he was the last two years.

Koby is gonna get good minutes, so lets just pray no Markus really does mean no trashy Koby.

Dawson will consistently get a lot barring foul trouble

I think for most everyone else it will be a lot of riding the hot hand. Symir will get some minutes every game by default just spelling DJ. But otherwise I think minutes for him, Cain, Greg, Perez, Lewis and Dex will be up for seizing the minutes.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Carton 32
McEwen 30
Garcia 29
Torrence 24
John 23

Cain 20
Elliott 18
Lewis 14
Perez 10

Spot minutes
Dexter
Oso

[brewcity77]

Carton 30
McEwen 25
Garcia 25
John 24
Torrence 24

Cain 20
Elliot 18
Lewis 12
Perez 10
Ighodaro 7
Akanno 5

[PaintTouches]

I'll put this up here once more, take like 4 minutes and give me your minute projections directly into the Google Sheet so we can come to an official crowdsourced consensus:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-nvfGS7aaq-oZnsunRv5O7fjkDFaK5q3lrDAjkpCeMw/edit?usp=sharing

[DoctorV]

Well written Andrei. I haven't read your piece on Jose Perez yet but I'll do that next, that was our main disagreement on this.

From what I've seen/read/heard so far Jose is very interesting in that he doesn't look that impressive at first glance, but he's got a skill that will really need to be on the court a lot this season if we aren't as efficient offensively as in years past (which we likely won't be)- his ability to score in many versatile ways.

Carton 29 (Same)
Koby 26 (-1)
Theo 25 (Same)
Garcia 24 (+3)
Lewis 19 (-1)
Perez 18 (+7)
Torrence 17 (-3)
Cain 16 (-1)
Elliott 14 (-4)
Akanno 6 (-4)
Oso 6 (+4)

As for Justin Lewis, I'm also a huge believer. I can see him getting even more run but he seems very active and aggressive defensively by nature so I fear foul trouble limiting his minutes this season.

I generally think Cain and Elliott will get less minutes than most expect but their experience and heart will still give them plenty of run with the ability to earn more if the newcomers struggle.

As for Oso and Akanno I would've given Dex more but he's now behind and I think Oso might take some of those minutes. If I had to bet I'd say I gave them too many minutes as opposed to too few but they are both the ultimate wildcards for this season

Can't wait for tip-off