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Madness

Date/Time: Oct 16, 2020?
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18-12

Author Topic: College Sports Madness 144 Preview  (Read 2560 times)

Galway Eagle

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College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« on: September 22, 2020, 08:44:50 AM »
Not great. Not horrible, just another blah ranking which has been the norm the past 5 years. That being said it crazy to me they'd expect the BE to get only 5 teams in after adding another quality program.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/18738

dgies9156

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2020, 09:58:20 AM »
Well, if our freshman class is as good as advertised, it will make a mockery of this projection.

Galway Eagle

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2020, 10:03:49 AM »
Well, if our freshman class is as good as advertised, it will make a mockery of this projection.

While I agree and hope our class lives up to the billing I would play devils advocate for a moment.  going back to the 09 class of Maymon, Williams Cadougan class I've since learned to temper expectations for young men who are ranked past the top 40 or so. Really only Sam has had a massive impact his first year when ranked beyond that.

BCHoopster

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2020, 11:14:20 AM »
Well, if our freshman class is as good as advertised, it will make a mockery of this projection.

I am more interested to see if Akanno is as good as the videos we have seen all summer.  If he can play to the level on the videos MU could be very good.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2020, 02:04:23 PM »
Not great. Not horrible, just another blah ranking which has been the norm the past 5 years. That being said it crazy to me they'd expect the BE to get only 5 teams in after adding another quality program.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/18738

I took a closer look at what the Big East is bringing back next season. Crazy as it sounds, 5 teams in may be generous.

Of the 7 teams that had a prayer of making the dance last season only Villanova and Creighton look to be as good as or better than they did last season....at least on paper. The remaining 5 look remarkably similar. They were ranked between 20 (Seton Hall) and 45 (Xavier) on KenPom. All 5 lose their alpha dog (Powell, Baldwin, Howard, Diallo, Marshall). All 5 lose 2 other starters (McKnight/Gill, McDermott/Tucker, Anim/Bailey, Pipkens/White, Jones/Goodin). All 5 lose at least one key reserve (Nelson, Baddley/Battle/Smits, Johnson/Morrow, Young/Holt, Moore/Bishop/James). All 5 will rely on significant growth from returning players and adding new players if they want to make the dance again. I think Seton Hall brings back the most talent from last year's roster. I think MU brings in the most talented group of newbies. That's why I have them pegged as the top finishers in that middle group. On paper, none of those 5 are guarantees to make the tourney.

Of the three remaining BEast teams from last season, none of them look like they are going to improve enough to make the dance this season.

UConn looks like they belong towards the top of that middle group. I think at least 3 teams emerge out of that group of 5 + UConn but I could see a scenario where only two or even one of them make it depending on non-conference performances.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

BCHoopster

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2020, 03:17:57 PM »
Creighton losing one of there best players in Tyshon Alexander, thats a big loss.  They will be notch lower but they have some experience back.  I only see Villy
as the main team, and the rest is up in the air.  MU having Carton playing one year in the Big 10 really is the #1 new recruit in the league, and Akanno maybe as a red
shirt, and Garcia the #1 Frosh could be the second best team in the league.  Now can Wojo coach them, ok, middle of the pack.

Trump Loves The Big East

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2020, 04:41:27 PM »
I took a closer look at what the Big East is bringing back next season. Crazy as it sounds, 5 teams in may be generous.

Of the 7 teams that had a prayer of making the dance last season only Villanova and Creighton look to be as good as or better than they did last season....at least on paper. The remaining 5 look remarkably similar. They were ranked between 20 (Seton Hall) and 45 (Xavier) on KenPom. All 5 lose their alpha dog (Powell, Baldwin, Howard, Diallo, Marshall). All 5 lose 2 other starters (McKnight/Gill, McDermott/Tucker, Anim/Bailey, Pipkens/White, Jones/Goodin). All 5 lose at least one key reserve (Nelson, Baddley/Battle/Smits, Johnson/Morrow, Young/Holt, Moore/Bishop/James). All 5 will rely on significant growth from returning players and adding new players if they want to make the dance again. I think Seton Hall brings back the most talent from last year's roster. I think MU brings in the most talented group of newbies. That's why I have them pegged as the top finishers in that middle group. On paper, none of those 5 are guarantees to make the tourney.

Of the three remaining BEast teams from last season, none of them look like they are going to improve enough to make the dance this season.

UConn looks like they belong towards the top of that middle group. I think at least 3 teams emerge out of that group of 5 + UConn but I could see a scenario where only two or even one of them make it depending on non-conference performances.
Every team in the country loses players every year and most are also relying on freshman and transfers as well. So looking at our league in a vacuum only gives a partially accurate picture.

I do agree that  our league is in what I would call its younger mode, than its upperclassman mode. Also generally there is a team in our league that surprises everyone. Last year I think it was Butler which was highly ranked all year. This year a team like The Johnnies could surprise people.

So the question   is,  how do the teams  in the Big East this year stack up versus teams in other leagues? I think the jury is still out on that part of the analysis. Take a look at this pre season Top 25 (These are not worth much but this one gives some good roster breakdowns) As you can see there are question marks everywhere just as there are every year .

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball-preseason-top-25-120004695.html


TAMU Eagle

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2020, 09:56:10 PM »
Every team in the country loses players every year and most are also relying on freshman and transfers as well. So looking at our league in a vacuum only gives a partially accurate picture.

Oh Hermie, you should know me well enough to know that I wasn't looking at our league in a vacuum. Allow me to present a preview of a research report I'm working on for Paint Touches.

Let's compare those 5 teams to the other teams in the KenPom range I mention (20-45).

First let's look at what teams are bringing back. This is hard to quantify accurately but at very least a starting point would be looking at % of production lost. This is a very basic statistic that looks at the % of a team's scoring, rebounding, assists, etc. that they are losing to graduation/transfer/going pro etc. Not pinpoint accurate because it doesn't take into account the efficiency of the production lost but gives you a general idea if a team is losing a little, an average amount, or a metric crapton.

The average % of production lost for the 5 Big East teams I mentioned (HALL/BUT/MU/PROV/X) is 60.2% (D1 average most years is between 40-48%).

The average % of production lost for the other 20 teams in that range is  46.4%. Almost 15% lower than the 5 Big East teams. In fact, only 3 teams in the group of 20 had %s higher than the 5 Big East teams' average (Kentucky, Auburn, Saint Mary's).

So the 5 Big East teams in that middle are losing significantly more production compared to their peers from last season. That of course can be made up for by bringing in top recruiting classes. Here's the recruiting class rankings for those 25 (per 247):

Kentucky: #1
LSU: #6
Auburn: #9
Texas Tech: #10
Stanford:#11
Indiana: #16
Illinois: #17
Virginia:#18
Marquette: #21
Xavier: #24

Wisconsin: #30
Purdue: #34
Florida: #38
Rutgers: #40
Colorado: #41
Butler: #43
Cincinnati: #44
Minnesota: #49
Saint Mary's: #52
Iowa: #55
Wichita State: #72
Penn State: #76
Oklahoma: #85
Seton Hall: #87
Providence: #89

Utah State: #111

So Marquette and Xavier barely sneak into the top 10/25 at #9 and #10 respectively. Butler comes in at 16/25 in middle but closer to the back. Seton Hall and Providence stumble to #23 and #24 only beating out mid-major darling Utah State.

Of course, recruiting rankings aren't everything. There are always 4-star busts and 3-star gems. But it is a neutral tool for evaluating the quality of incoming freshmen.

The one area where these 5 shine is with transfers. DJ Carton is the top transfer among them IMHO and Aiken/Molson, Bynum/Horchler, Johnson/Griffin, and Jair Bolden aren't bad transfer classes either. If Ben Stanley gets a waiver than X will get a huge boost. But there are some other impressive transfer classes in this tweener group, Texas Tech, Minnesota, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, and Cincy all arguably have equally good transfer classes.

I like what you said about "younger mode" and "upperclassmen mode." Its a good way to think about it. The data suggests the Big East is going into younger mode and most of the other high major conferences are trending towards upperclassmen mode.

But basketball isn't played on paper. As much as I love to nerd out over this stuff, there are always teams that defy the odds. Maybe SJU will be that team this season. Of the bottom three, they are certainly the most likely.

TLDR: Arby's
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

WhiteTrash

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2020, 09:57:08 PM »
NIT seems about right with our talent and  our coach.

Wojo and his players have been nothing but  first class. But on the court not so great.


TAMU Eagle

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2020, 10:30:18 AM »
UConn looks like they belong towards the top of that middle group.

Upon further review, I think UConn is the clear 3rd best team and may even pass Creighton if they don't overcome the loss of Ty-Shon. Tyrese Martin getting a waiver is a huge addition. He could be an All-Big East level player.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

panda

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2020, 11:43:04 AM »
Upon further review, I think UConn is the clear 3rd best team and may even pass Creighton if they don't overcome the loss of Ty-Shon. Tyrese Martin getting a waiver is a huge addition. He could be an All-Big East level player.

UConn > Creighton

dgies9156

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2020, 12:23:18 PM »
NIT seems about right with our talent and  our coach.

Wojo and his players have been nothing but  first class. But on the court not so great.

Yuck.

NIT = Not Invited Tournament. A real negative for our team and our growth as a budding basketball power. If the world really believes that, I'd treat the belief as motivation and I'd be pushing my team harder and harder to prove the world wrong.

In past years, I've argued that we should turn down an NIT bid. It's not what it used to be and it's a sign of failure.

I'm of the belief we have a winner and we're going to surprise many, many people with the talent we have.

bilsu

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2020, 01:21:13 PM »
My goal is not the NIT, but I would never turn down an NIT bid.

Shooter McGavin

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2020, 01:43:40 PM »
Yuck.

NIT = Not Invited Tournament. A real negative for our team and our growth as a budding basketball power. If the world really believes that, I'd treat the belief as motivation and I'd be pushing my team harder and harder to prove the world wrong.

In past years, I've argued that we should turn down an NIT bid. It's not what it used to be and it's a sign of failure.

I'm of the belief we have a winner and we're going to surprise many, many people with the talent we have.

Again,  hope you are right dgies.  I also agree that in year seven of Wojos tenure the NIT would be a failure.  At some point winning games in the NCAA tournament has to be a priority.  Losing Carton next year will set us back again.  At some point the program needs to move forward.  Wojo would agree with that I am sure.

Galway Eagle

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2020, 02:00:05 PM »
Again,  hope you are right dgies.  I also agree that in year seven of Wojos tenure the NIT would be a failure.  At some point winning games in the NCAA tournament has to be a priority.  Losing Carton next year will set us back again.  At some point the program needs to move forward.  Wojo would agree with that I am sure.

Agreed. It'd be a different story if we were graduating Sam Markus and Sacar etc and had a great year but coming off of another meh year NIT doesn't cut it

dgies9156

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2020, 03:24:02 PM »
Again,  hope you are right dgies.  I also agree that in year seven of Wojos tenure the NIT would be a failure.  At some point winning games in the NCAA tournament has to be a priority.  Losing Carton next year will set us back again.  At some point the program needs to move forward.  Wojo would agree with that I am sure.

I'll be really harsh. While I have high hopes for this year, if the downside risk is a loser's tournament or no tournament at all, it's time to get out the whacking ax and do some Paul Bunyon-style whacking around the basketball program.

Seven years in and we not only better be an NCAA team, we better win at least one game!

WE ARE MARQUETTE!!! We are not Murray State!

Hards_Alumni

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2020, 04:11:00 PM »
I'll be really harsh. While I have high hopes for this year, if the downside risk is a loser's tournament or no tournament at all, it's time to get out the whacking ax and do some Paul Bunyon-style whacking around the basketball program.

Seven years in and we not only better be an NCAA team, we better win at least one game!

WE ARE MARQUETTE!!! We are not Murray State!

Stop, you're setting off my PTSD.

Shooter McGavin

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2020, 08:30:21 PM »
Dgies,  right again.  Meat eaters will be prescient at that point.

Galway Eagle

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2020, 09:48:44 PM »
I'll be really harsh. While I have high hopes for this year, if the downside risk is a loser's tournament or no tournament at all, it's time to get out the whacking ax and do some Paul Bunyon-style whacking around the basketball program.

Seven years in and we not only better be an NCAA team, we better win at least one game!

WE ARE MARQUETTE!!! We are not Murray State!

Hope we'd play just to gain experience for those who'd stay but agreed if it's NIT then he's gotta go.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2020, 09:59:25 PM »
To be clear, making the NIT in year 7 is not a reason to fire a coach. All programs have up years and down years and for most programs a down year includes a trip to the NIT or worse.

What could be a reason to fire a coach is a 7 year body of work that only includes 3 NCAA appearances, 1 top 8 seed, and 0 NCAA wins. But that's a different measurement than just "making the NIT in year 7."

FWIW, I think Wojo is safe with an NIT berth. Not saying that's the right decision but I do think that would be what would happen. Making the NCAA this season, even as a double digit seed, should be considered a positive testament to the coaching staff given the roster they've put together this season. Either they coach these guys up to be more than what they appear, or they identified talent that was overlooked by rankings and other coaches.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Shooter McGavin

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2020, 10:52:27 PM »
TAMU,

I and most posters here are taking the entire body of work into account.  That goes unsaid by year seven.  There are no qualifiers from here on out.  Even the most patient (projos) of us are getting tired of mediocrity.  Wojo, I’m sure is getting tired of mediocrity.  There are no excuses that will make this better.  Unless the team performs well this year there really is no reason to think it will ever get better.  Year seven is not the issue. Seven years of no tournament wins are the issue.

dgies9156

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2020, 10:59:27 PM »
TAMU,

I and most posters here are taking the entire body of work into account.  That goes unsaid by year seven.  There are no qualifiers from here on out.  Even the most patient (projos) of us are getting tired of mediocrity.  Wojo, I’m sure is getting tired of mediocrity.  There are no excuses that will make this better.  Unless the team performs well this year there really is no reason to think it will ever get better.  Year seven is not the issue. Seven years of no tournament wins are the issue.

Brother Shooter:

Right on. We're in Year 7 and we lost the momentum we had before the Redneck's last year. NCAA wins are the baseline standard of excellence for our program and we've been dry far too long. It has to be NCAA or we have real problems.

C'mon, Garcia and Carton were ranked talent. Oso was well regarded. Akanno is showing real potential. It's time!!!!!


Shooter McGavin

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2020, 11:12:10 PM »
For what it’s worth, I am a projo.  I’ve met him a couple times and like him.  I want him to succeed as much as anyone but it’s time to exceed expectations.  I will be counting the days until he is fired if we do not have a good year.  I have a feeling there will be plenty of people with me.  There are too many positives for this program to sink into the abyss. Literally any qualified coach could have this team losing first round NCAA games  3 out of six years. Time to raise the bar.  I really believe Wojo feels the same way.

Scoop Snoop

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2020, 08:31:54 AM »
To be clear, making the NIT in year 7 is not a reason to fire a coach. All programs have up years and down years and for most programs a down year includes a trip to the NIT or worse.

What could be a reason to fire a coach is a 7 year body of work that only includes 3 NCAA appearances, 1 top 8 seed, and 0 NCAA wins. But that's a different measurement than just "making the NIT in year 7."

FWIW, I think Wojo is safe with an NIT berth. Not saying that's the right decision but I do think that would be what would happen. Making the NCAA this season, even as a double digit seed, should be considered a positive testament to the coaching staff given the roster they've put together this season. Either they coach these guys up to be more than what they appear, or they identified talent that was overlooked by rankings and other coaches.

As long as Lovell is president, an NIT invite is probably all Wojo needs to keep his job. I do not see him leaving for another position. Who would give him a deal even close to the one he has at Marquette? And where would the money come from to buy him out?

OK, now that I have vented: I am really looking forward to seeing our guys- new and returning players- on the court. Nothing would make me happier than to be proven completely wrong about Wojo. Can he make the team greater than the sum of its parts? I really hope so, but his track record is simply not good. 
"Your words don't mean anything to me. Argument doesn't have any effect on me."
Doc Burton: "I wasn't arguing. I was asking for information. All of you people get angry when you're asked a question."
                                           
                Excerpt from a Steinbeck novel.

BM1090

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Re: College Sports Madness 144 Preview
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2020, 09:03:37 AM »
For what it’s worth, I am a projo.  I’ve met him a couple times and like him.  I want him to succeed as much as anyone but it’s time to exceed expectations.  I will be counting the days until he is fired if we do not have a good year.  I have a feeling there will be plenty of people with me.  There are too many positives for this program to sink into the abyss. Literally any qualified coach could have this team losing first round NCAA games  3 out of six years. Time to raise the bar.  I really believe Wojo feels the same way.

I'm willing to give him this year and next. I'd like to see this freshman class in year two before firing him. If there are no NCAA tournament wins by April 2022 then he has to go, in my opinion.

Wojo will be a head coach for a long time whether it's here or somewhere else. He has demonstrated he can run a clean, competitive program. There's value to that. But I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a middling power conference coach.