Tennis

[shoothoops]

Rublev, yea?

Andrey Rublev is the one. 👍

[shoothoops]

Naomi Osaka over Hsieh Su-Wei.

She's 31-2 Hardcourt Grand Slam Record since 2018.

She's yet ever lose in a Grand Slam Quarterfinal, Semifinal, or Final.

Tough loss for McCoco in doubles Quarterfinals. They didn't bounce back after lbeing deflated losing a close first set tiebreaker. Decision making not quite as good as through the tourney. Credit to 4 seed Melichsr and Schuurs. They really used their experience and played well with no let downs. Served well, hit well, and they really understand the subtleties of doubles. Great experience for Gauff and McNally.

[Heisenberg]

American WTA Player Nicole Gibbs announced her retirement today. She will turn 28 in March. (Fellow American and friend Jamie Hampton retired due to injuries last year.)

She has battled multiple injuries and cancer, as a player.

She was a superstar at Stanford, and became only the third player in history to win the NCAA Title in Singles and Doubles. (Also won the team title at Stanford)

She finished her remaining year at Stanford during the Pandemic, and she is applying to Law Schools.

One of the great college players of all-time.  Ranks with Laura Granville and Danielle Collins.

[MuggsyB]

Dimitrov appears to be in control vs Karatsev. 

[MuggsyB]

Perhaps I wrote too soon.  Karatsev takes the 2nd set. 

[MuggsyB]

This is bizarre.  Dimitrov looked totally fine,.  Now he appears to be injured or checked-out. 

[MuggsyB]

Djokovic just went crazy!  Smashed and shattered his racket in the 3rd set.   I can't figure out why he is so pissed.  Anyway Zverev up a break in the 3rd after splitting sets.  Maybe he's just mad because he's not 100%?  This could go the distance.

[MuggsyB]

Zverev really blew a great chance.  Up 4-1 and 0-30 on Djoker's serve he proceeds to dump 5 straight games.  Djokovic's mental toughness is incredible.  The guy is tough as nails and a prime-time competitor.

[MuggsyB]

Djoker gets it done 7-6 (8-6) in the 4th.  Another brutal loss for Zverev, had plenty of chances. 

Good news that fans will be allowed back at Rod Laver Stadium Thurs-Sun. 

[shoothoops]

Serena Williams advances to her 40th (Navratilova 52, Evert 44) Grand Slam semifinal with a very convincing 6-3, 6-3 win over multiple Grand Slam winner and number 2 seed Simona Halep.

Big time hitting, movement, footwork, defense. And she has room to improve her serving which was just so so for her. A night match after some recent hot sun mod day matches for her.

3-3 2nd set, Halep serving, Serena wins a 20 point rally. She immediately backs it up by winning a 12 point rally for the break. Serena won the short points, medium points, and long rallies.

This has been the most relaxed, fit, fun having Serena has been in a while. But another round, another big time opponent.

She will face Naomi Osaka in the semifinals.

[MU82]

As I said, I'll believe one of these next-gen stars will beat Djokovic or Nadal on the big stage when I see it happen, preferably more than once. Every big point, Novak came up huge.

Djokovic really served well at the end, and that's one advantage he has over Rafa. It's nice to be able to get a couple of quick points in a row; Rafa so often has to grind out point after point after point. He was serving really well before the coronavirus, so hopefully he'll find that again.

Also, as predicted - not that it was that difficult a prediction - we have Serena vs. Osaka coming up. I really like Osaka's game and her consistency, but I have to say I was extremely impressed with what I saw of Serena against Halep. Looked in prime form. I'll go with Naomi in a classic.

[MuggsyB]

As I said, I'll believe one of these next-gen stars will beat Djokovic or Nadal on the big stage when I see it happen, preferably more than once. Every big point, Novak came up huge.

Djokovic really served well at the end, and that's one advantage he has over Rafa. It's nice to be able to get a couple of quick points in a row; Rafa so often has to grind out point after point after point. He was serving really well before the coronavirus, so hopefully he'll find that again.

Also, as predicted - not that it was that difficult a prediction - we have Serena vs. Osaka coming up. I really like Osaka's game and her consistency, but I have to say I was extremely impressed with what I saw of Serena against Halep. Looked in prime form. I'll go with Naomi in a classic.

That's exactly right.  And Zverev had him 4-1, 0-30 (on Djoker's serve) in the 3rd and was up a break in the 4th as well.  They played high quality tennis in the 3rd and 4th but at critical junctures Zverev made errors and tactical mistakes while Novak came up with the goods. 

That stab crosscourt backhand winner from the baseline was absolutely sick.  Djoker is the best returner in history with his ability to cover the box.   And make no mistake about it:  this dude is crazy tough mentally.  As strong as Rafa and stronger than Roger. 

The man has won 8 Aussie Opens for a reason.  It's tough to bet against him now when he's playing a qualifier in the SF.  The road for the other 4 players is pretty grueling.   I will be rooting strongly for Rafa but he's going to have to serve big and find a way to get more free points.  I just think the speed of this court makes it really tough for Nadal...although at night there the court may be slower? 

[MU82]

That's exactly right.  And Zverev had him 4-1, 0-30 (on Djoker's serve) in the 3rd and was up a break in the 4th as well.  They played high quality tennis in the 3rd and 4th but at critical junctures Zverev made errors and tactical mistakes while Novak came up with the goods. 

That stab crosscourt backhand winner from the baseline was absolutely sick.  Djoker is the best returner in history with his ability to cover the box.   And make no mistake about it:  this dude is crazy tough mentally.  As strong as Rafa and stronger than Roger. 

The man has won 8 Aussie Opens for a reason.  It's tough to bet against him now when he's playing a qualifier in the SF.  The road for the other 4 players is pretty grueling.   I will be rooting strongly for Rafa but he's going to have to serve big and find a way to get more free points.  I just think the speed of this court makes it really tough for Nadal...although at night there the court may be slower?

I'll be pulling for Rafa, and I of course think he has a chance. But if I had to place a bet, I'd join you in wagering on Djokovic. So tough Down Under.

[Heisenberg]

The man has won 8 Aussie Opens for a reason.  It's tough to bet against him now when he's playing a qualifier in the SF.  The road for the other 4 players is pretty grueling.   I will be rooting strongly for Rafa but he's going to have to serve big and find a way to get more free points.  I just think the speed of this court makes it really tough for Nadal...although at night there the court may be slower?

You are correct it is hard to bet against Novak playing a qualifier in the SF, and I would not.

However, a quick word about the qualifier ... 27-year old Aslan Karatsev from Russia.

As a junior he was a very good player, regularly beating Thiem and Medvedev.  In 2011 he was named the best junior in Russia.

So he has the skill set to play at this level, and when he was a junior he played at this level.  He has been grinding for years at the lower levels and it seems the "lightbulb went on."  He is now in the top 50 (after starting at 114) and should be an automatic qualifier for the rest of the majors this year.

And his resume this AO has been very impressive.  In the last week he has beaten:

[8] Diego Schwartzman
[20] Félix Auger-Aliassime
[18] Grigor Dimitrov

He did not get a lucky draw to make it this far.

Don't sleep on him and if he beats Novak it is an upset, but maybe not as big as one might think.

[shoothoops]

As I said, I'll believe one of these next-gen stars will beat Djokovic or Nadal on the big stage when I see it happen, preferably more than once. Every big point, Novak came up huge.

Djokovic really served well at the end, and that's one advantage he has over Rafa. It's nice to be able to get a couple of quick points in a row; Rafa so often has to grind out point after point after point. He was serving really well before the coronavirus, so hopefully he'll find that again.

Also, as predicted - not that it was that difficult a prediction - we have Serena vs. Osaka coming up. I really like Osaka's game and her consistency, but I have to say I was extremely impressed with what I saw of Serena against Halep. Looked in prime form. I'll go with Naomi in a classic.

Osaka v Muguruza was a toss uo, and Osaka had to survive match points to advance. She was expected to win over Hsieh Su-Wei.

Serena v Sabalenka and Serena v Halep were toss uo match ups. Serena won both. Against Halep, most of their recent Hard Court matchups had been 3 set matches. And Halep of course won over Serena at Wimbledon.

If either played Barty it would be a toss up. Both would be a slight favorite over Brady and Pegula. But both are capable, especially Brady. Muchova would be a similar level to Brady.

Rublev, Medvedev, and Tsitsipas are all capable of winning the Australian Open. Longer shot for Karatsev who is having a dream run, but he's playing very well.

Djokovic and Nadal will be tough to beat but they will need to play well to win.

[MuggsyB]

You are correct it is hard to bet against Novak playing a qualifier in the SF, and I would not.

However, a quick word about the qualifier ... 27-year old Aslan Karatsev from Russia.

As a junior he was a very good player, regularly beating Thiem and Medvedev.  In 2011 he was named the best junior in Russia.

So he has the skill set to play at this level, and when he was a junior he played at this level.  He has been grinding for years at the lower levels and it seems the "lightbulb went on."  He is now in the top 50 (after starting at 114) and should be an automatic qualifier for the rest of the majors this year.

And his resume this AO has been very impressive.  In the last week he has beaten:

[8] Diego Schwartzman
[20] Félix Auger-Aliassime
[18] Grigor Dimitrov

He did not get a lucky draw to make it this far.

Don't sleep on him and if he beats Novak it is an upset, but maybe not as big as one might think.

Interesting player and I agree he wasn't lucky.   I am confused if he was #250 or #114 before the tournament because I believe I heard #250.  Regardless it's an amazing story and he has a punchers chance.  He generates a lot of pace on his shots but they are flat with less topspin.  If he can dictate play against Djoker and limit his errors ua never know.  I just think Novalk is too consistent. 

[MU82]

I mostly agree with Smuggles, shoot and Muggsy about all of the above.

However ...

If a qualifier beats the No. 1 seed and 8-time Australian Open champion, it will be one of the biggest upsets in recent tennis history. Period.

One guy is some qualifier nobody but serious tennis followers has every heard of. The other guy is the best tennis player in the world, and one of the 5 greatest in history. Please.

[MuggsyB]

I mostly agree with Smuggles, shoot and Muggsy about all of the above.

However ...

If a qualifier beats the No. 1 seed and 8-time Australian Open champion, it will be one of the biggest upsets in recent tennis history. Period.

One guy is some qualifier nobody but serious tennis followers has every heard of. The other guy is the best tennis player in the world, and one of the 5 greatest in history. Please.

No doubt.  But Karatsev blew my guy Diego Schwartzman off the court.  DS is 5'6 on a good day. 

If Rafa can pull this off, with the speed of the court and the land mines awaiting, it would just solidify his greatness.  The GOAT conversation is still fluid and Djoker is the youngest. 

[shoothoops]

Karolina Muchova takes out World Number One Ash Barty in three sets in a strange match.

At one point Barty was up a set and a break. Muchova had 18 unforced errors and one winner. Then Muchova takes a long injury timeout (she wasn't injured, just trying to change momentum) and the match changed dramatically.

Barty's level dropped, out of rythm, plethora if unforced errors, poor 2nd serve and poor 2nd serve return. Muchova played much better. But stunning from Barty.

Muchova had a big comeback against Mertens and Pliskova as well.

This now means Jen Brady is the only player left in the Women's Singles Draw to not have lost a set. This also means it is guaranteed that there will ve a first time Finalist on that side of thr bracket.

[JWags85]

Holy crap what a 3rd set from Brady.  Granted Pegula totally collapsed mentally after the opening break, but Brady was beyond steady and just hit strong crisp shots and put all the pressure and stress on Pegula.

[shoothoops]

Jen Brady advances to her 2nd straight Hard Court Grand Slam Semifinal with a 3 set win over Jessie Pegula.

Standing inside the baseline, taking the ball early, using some of her doubles experience, all helped Pegula take the first set. Brady sprayed lots of unforced errors with little margin. But she made the adjustments, added more spin, angle, and margin to push Pegula back and to the corners, while improving her serve. Pegula started to fatigue later in the blazing mid day sun.

[MuggsyB]

Holy crap what a 3rd set from Brady.  Granted Pegula totally collapsed mentally after the opening break, but Brady was beyond steady and just hit strong crisp shots and put all the pressure and stress on Pegula.

Who ya got between the Russians? 

[JWags85]

Who ya got between the Russians?

I promise this isn't revisionist, but I would have said Medvedev hands down. He seems so locked in and his game is so crafty and smooth. Rublev has been very good in majors recently, but I thought Med would just have his number

[MuggsyB]

Ughhh.  Rafa dumps the 3rd set with a loose breaker.  Three unforced errors???  I guess he is human.  Anyhow things just got a lot more difficult.  And yes, Medvedev is looking sharp.  Vamos Rafa!!  Time to get it together.

[MuggsyB]

Tsitsipas has really elevated his game.  Rafa in serious danger.  This looks like it's going 5.