COVID Economy

[Pakuni]

Yes Paul was the only one back in March of 2020 who made incredibly bad predictions.

Sorry, I don't make the rules. When someone makes an incredibly bad prediction, that person is stupid and should not be taken seriously.
Source: Lenny

[Lennys Tap]

Paul Tudor Jones must be the stupidest man in the world.*

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones on Thursday said that America will beat the deadly coronavirus pandemic, while sharing his own personal narrative, noting that his daughter contracted the illness recently and has since recovered.
“I don’t think we need to panic,” he said.
By his own estimates, Jones speculated that the disease could infect one million people in the U.S. in a worst-case scenario and applying a 4% mortality rate—far greater than most epidemiologist are assigning to the disease—roughly 40,000 people would die due to the deadly pathogen. He said that although he believes such losses would be tragic, he compared that to lives lost during a bad influenza season

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/man-who-called-1987-crash-says-be-careful-not-to-mythologize-coronavirus-into-a-pandemic-godzilla-predicts-stocks-will-rebound-in-a-few-months-2020-03-26


As of yesterday, we've seen more than 45 million COVID infections in the U.S. and about 728,000 deaths. Paul was off just a little.

*According to the Lenny Scale of Human Stupidity

He’s certainly not an expert in pandemics.

If you and jesmu think inflation is transitory and no big thing, fine.

I disagree. Time will tell.

[Pakuni]

Florida man applied for jobs at 60 companies that publicly complained they couldn't find enough workers.
The result:
16 email responses, four follow-up phone calls, and one interview.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/worker-florida-applied-60-entry-193423909.html

[Uncle Rico]

Florida man applied for jobs at 60 companies that publicly complained they couldn't find enough workers.
The result:
16 email responses, four follow-up phone calls, and one interview.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/worker-florida-applied-60-entry-193423909.html

I read that yesterday.  Very interesting stuff.

[Lennys Tap]

Paul Tudor Jones must be the stupidest man in the world.*

G

Someone said Paul Krugman had been consistently predicting recessions and depressions wrongly for 21 consecutive years.

To which I replied: I don’t know if Paul Krugman is the stupidest man in the world.

So I say I don’t know if a guy who hasn’t been right in his own field of expertise in 21 years is the stupidest man in the world. This morphs in your mind to Lenny says anyone who has ever been wrong on any prediction is the stupidest man in the world. Don’t know if you were being intentionally dishonest but you hit the jackpot.

[Pakuni]

He’s certainly not an expert in pandemics.

If you and jesmu think inflation is transitory and no big thing, fine.

I disagree. Time will tell.

Lenny,

I have no forecast on inflation or its long-term effects. I'm far from expert in that area. I suppose I could, like some people, seek out the opinions that reflect my preferences and political biases - and there are plenty - and post those here, but what would be the point?

[Pakuni]

G

Someone said Paul Krugman had been consistently predicting recessions and depressions wrongly for 21 consecutive years.

To which I replied: I don’t know if Paul Krugman is the stupidest man in the world.

So I say I don’t know if a guy who hasn’t been right in his own field of expertise in 21 years is the stupidest man in the world. This morphs in your mind to Lenny says anyone who has ever been wrong on any prediction is the stupidest man in the world. Don’t know if you were being intentionally dishonest but you hit the jackpot.

You also called him a "special kind of stupid," but yeah, I'm the dishonest one here.

[rocky_warrior]

I read that yesterday.  Very interesting stuff.

A quick sleuthing of the dude says he has a felony marijuana sales verdict in his name - so maybe it would have been good to include that, as potential employers would get the same info.

We could debate all day whether marijuana sales should ever be a felony, but a lot of employers don't want to hire felons.

[Goose]

We have a ton of issue that are causing inflation and several are here to stay, namely higher wages. I have been saying for months that we are importing inflation from China and that is my biggest concern. Prices of goods from China are up a great deal this year and I believe the Chinese government loves it. Shipping costs will eventually go down, but I think higher prices from China are here for the long haul.

We get countless calls a day with companies wanting out of China and that is much easier said than done. The biggest companies in the world struggle doing business outside of China and 99.9% of other companies do not understand how hard it is to move production to Vietnam, Cambodia, etc. and will struggle big time.

I think we are in a perfect storm for rough sledding ahead. I happen to agree with PTJ and all of his comments today. The Fed is a dangerous crew and I have been saying for months they do not have their eye on the inflationary ball.

[MUBurrow]

Does anyone have any articles or resources they recommend for a guy trying to get smart on the inflation issue?  I understand that all resources will have some degree of political bias in them, and I trust that I can sort through that. 

I'm not the sharpest macroeconomic crayon in the box, but it seems that we have been promised and waiting for these wage increases for the average folks since 2008.  So it strikes me as odd that now that those seem in the wings, we're shifting into decrying the corresponding inflation. I understand that inflation is a natural consequence of rising wages, but I need to learn more about what is to be done about that, short of telling the middle class to pick their poison - low wages or inflation.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Does anyone have any articles or resources they recommend for a guy trying to get smart on the inflation issue?  I understand that all resources will have some degree of political bias in them, and I trust that I can sort through that. 

I'm not the sharpest macroeconomic crayon in the box, but it seems that we have been promised and waiting for these wage increases for the average folks since 2008.  So it strikes me as odd that now that those seem in the wings, we're shifting into decrying the corresponding inflation. I understand that inflation is a natural consequence of rising wages, but I need to learn more about what is to be done about that, short of telling the middle class to pick their poison - low wages or inflation.

Jockey would suggest the works of Paul Krugman.

[Hards Alumni]

Does anyone have any articles or resources they recommend for a guy trying to get smart on the inflation issue?  I understand that all resources will have some degree of political bias in them, and I trust that I can sort through that. 

I'm not the sharpest macroeconomic crayon in the box, but it seems that we have been promised and waiting for these wage increases for the average folks since 2008.  So it strikes me as odd that now that those seem in the wings, we're shifting into decrying the corresponding inflation. I understand that inflation is a natural consequence of rising wages, but I need to learn more about what is to be done about that, short of telling the middle class to pick their poison - low wages or inflation.

Slow inflation is fine.  Run away inflation is bad.

Your investments need to beat inflation to be worthwhile.

[Uncle Rico]

A quick sleuthing of the dude says he has a felony marijuana sales verdict in his name - so maybe it would have been good to include that, as potential employers would get the same info.

We could debate all day whether marijuana sales should ever be a felony, but a lot of employers don't want to hire felons.

I’d think that would be a plus on a Florida job application

[tower912]

What is his mullet status?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Q3 earnings are outpacing estimates by a very robust 15%+. I'd hazard to guess that while Q4 upside will not be of that magnitude (there has to be reversion to the mean at some point), we'll still see good upside. The amount of cash sloshing around, and the fact that the Great Resignation continues apace, tells me demand will continue to drive the economy in Q4, and will incidentally keep inflation turned up. Right now, demand from the American consumer is insatiable.

The supply chain issue will temper Q4, without a doubt, but there are the first hints that it is slowly (too slowly) being corrected. China, with their port closures, has caused a big chunk of the mess, but we are working on easing the backlogs in the LA and NY ports.

The change in rate of earnings increases is what typically drive the market, and personally I think the aggregate estimates for Q4 are too low. There is more volatility on the market than has been typical in recent history, but my money is on a Santa Clause really, albeit a moderate one.

I will take my Paul Krugman Award now.

[JWags85]

Does anyone have any articles or resources they recommend for a guy trying to get smart on the inflation issue?  I understand that all resources will have some degree of political bias in them, and I trust that I can sort through that. 

I'm not the sharpest macroeconomic crayon in the box, but it seems that we have been promised and waiting for these wage increases for the average folks since 2008.  So it strikes me as odd that now that those seem in the wings, we're shifting into decrying the corresponding inflation. I understand that inflation is a natural consequence of rising wages, but I need to learn more about what is to be done about that, short of telling the middle class to pick their poison - low wages or inflation.

Inflation like everything is a balance.  Wages can rise, while inflation rises, and that isn't an issue, provided its in check and manageable.

The issue now isn't really the wages as much as it is everything else.  There was a LOT of spending to cope with the pandemic, and more on the way, and that coupled with some significant shocks to the global supply chain has costs rising everywhere.  Spending trillions, justified/needed or not, is going to cause significant inflation, regardless of what wages and the job market is doing.

There is nothing to be gained by pointing fingers, but I do have my concerns about the current Fed's ability to properly handle the danger of runaway inflation looming.  Thats far more critical and worrisome to me than any policies or plans a politician or party is trying to enact.

[tower912]

The basics of supply and demand.

Right now, there is a lot of demand for goods.   The supply chain is fouled up for a number of reasons.   When demand outpaces supply, inflation spikes.


Right now, for a myriad of reasons, there are more openings than there are workers.  The demand for workers is driving up demand.   Which is oupacing the supply of workers.   Inflationary spike.

When no one was driving in the spring of 2020, gasoline prices plummeted.   Supply outpaced demand.    When there are more applicants than jobs, wages go down.

Economics 101.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

We have a ton of issue that are causing inflation and several are here to stay, namely higher wages. I have been saying for months that we are importing inflation from China and that is my biggest concern. Prices of goods from China are up a great deal this year and I believe the Chinese government loves it. Shipping costs will eventually go down, but I think higher prices from China are here for the long haul.

We get countless calls a day with companies wanting out of China and that is much easier said than done. The biggest companies in the world struggle doing business outside of China and 99.9% of other companies do not understand how hard it is to move production to Vietnam, Cambodia, etc. and will struggle big time.

I think we are in a perfect storm for rough sledding ahead. I happen to agree with PTJ and all of his comments today. The Fed is a dangerous crew and I have been saying for months they do not have their eye on the inflationary ball.

Very interesting perspective.  Thank you.

[Lennys Tap]

You also called him a "special kind of stupid," but yeah, I'm the dishonest one here.

Pulling quotes out of context to alter the meaning. I honestly would have expected better from you. Here’s what I really said:

“The guy’s an economist who (ACCORDING TO ANOTHER POSTER, NOT ME) has routinely and incorrectly predicted recessions and depressions throughout the greatest bull market in history. That’s a special kind of stupid.

I don’t know (and I said as much) whether the poster (from your side of the political fence) is correct in asserting that Krugman has been that consistently and spectacularly wrong on the economy. But IF the other poster is correct, that’s a special kind of stupid.

Like what you wrote was a special kind of dishonest.

[rocket surgeon]

Pulling quotes out of context to alter the meaning. I honestly would have expected better from you. Here’s what I really said:

“The guy’s an economist who (ACCORDING TO ANOTHER POSTER, NOT ME) has routinely and incorrectly predicted recessions and depressions throughout the greatest bull market in history. That’s a special kind of stupid.

I don’t know (and I said as much) whether the poster (from your side of the political fence) is correct in asserting that Krugman has been that consistently and spectacularly wrong on the economy. But IF the other poster is correct, that’s a special kind of stupid.

Like what you wrote was a special kind of dishonest.

in other words, krugman should be up for their highest honors, pulitzers, emmy's, honorary degrees, and last but not least...a ride on the lolita express

[Uncle Rico]

in other words, krugman should be up for their highest honors, pulitzers, emmy's, honorary degrees, and last but not least...a ride on the lolita express

So much going on here.  Random apostrophes and ellipses are solid work. The Lolita Express line is classic. 

8 of 10

[Pakuni]

Pulling quotes out of context to alter the meaning. I honestly would have expected better from you.

Thanks for your sincere words, Lenny.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Pulling quotes out of context to alter the meaning. I honestly would have expected better from you. Here’s what I really said:

“The guy’s an economist who (ACCORDING TO ANOTHER POSTER, NOT ME) has routinely and incorrectly predicted recessions and depressions throughout the greatest bull market in history. That’s a special kind of stupid.

I don’t know (and I said as much) whether the poster (from your side of the political fence) is correct in asserting that Krugman has been that consistently and spectacularly wrong on the economy. But IF the other poster is correct, that’s a special kind of stupid.

Like what you wrote was a special kind of dishonest.

Between mis-quoting and misogyny, I'm starting to worry about MU's journalism program, aina.

[Pakuni]

Between mis-quoting and misogyny, I'm starting to worry about MU's journalism program, aina.

Is the jizz mopping program still solid?

[Billy Hoyle]

NY Times asking “where are the workers?” It turns out the enhanced unemployment and stimulus checks allowed people to not go back to work. Though what will happen when the cushion runs out?

Thanks to pandemic stimulus programs during both the Trump and Biden administrations, many families have received multiple checks from the federal government over the past 18 months. Those stimulus programs also increased the size of unemployment benefits. Over the same period, home values and stock prices have risen, too.

As a result, many households have more of a financial cushion than they used to. If anything, the recent increases in savings have been larger at the bottom of the economic spectrum than at the top:

With this cushion, some workers — especially those in service industries disrupted by Covid-19 — have decided that they did not like their old jobs enough to return. Others have simply quit their jobs.