COVID Economy

[jficke13]

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055

Paul Krugman has been saying one thing for at least 21 years: "The world is on the verge of recession/depression and nobody will do what I say to avert this looming crisis." That he said such a thing in 2016 is as surprising as the Packers special teams sucking again each October. As dependable as the tides.

[MU82]

Now, this is a dishonest post, Lenny.

Especially given that I totally sat out the Krugman discussion. But whatevs.

[Uncle Rico]

Paul Krugman has been saying one thing for at least 21 years: "The world is on the verge of recession/depression and nobody will do what I say to avert this looming crisis." That he said such a thing in 2016 is as surprising as the Packers special teams sucking again each October. As dependable as the tides.

Don't disagree.  Someone just asked for a link. 

[Jockey]

Paul Krugman has been saying one thing for at least 21 years: "The world is on the verge of recession/depression and nobody will do what I say to avert this looming crisis." That he said such a thing in 2016 is as surprising as the Packers special teams sucking again each October. As dependable as the tides.

Now this is an honest post. He has been claiming a looming recession for a long time. He is a "the sky is falling" guy.

To go back to the fake depression argument; if I say that the Houston Texans are losers and there is "no end in sight" to their losing, that does NOT mean I am saying that they will be losers to the end of time. It means than under the current situation, there is no end in sight. In other words, until there is change.

Lenny knows this. Wags knows this. But as much as these two decry politics on the board, they go after Krugman because of his politics.

My point still stands. He did not talk about a depression. These two guys (who poured over his quotes so intently) also intentionally left one specific word that Krugman said out of their posts. That is pushing an agenda - not an attempt at honesty.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Now this is an honest post. He has been claiming a looming recession for a long time. He is a "the sky is falling" guy.

To go back to the fake depression argument; if I say that the Houston Texans are losers and there is "no end in sight" to their losing, that does NOT mean I am saying that they will be losers to the end of time. It means than under the current situation, there is no end in sight. In other words, until there is change.

Lenny knows this. Wags knows this. But as much as these two decry politics on the board, they go after Krugman because of his politics.

My point still stands. He did not talk about a depression. These two guys (who poured over his quotes so intently) also intentionally left one specific word that Krugman said out of their posts. That is pushing an agenda - not an attempt at honesty.

Most people go after Krugman, Ds and Rs, because he's an idiot.

[jficke13]

Most people go after Krugman, Ds and Rs, because he's an idiot.

I'm not sure whether he's an idiot, but he's the platonic form of a hammer, and the whole world is a nail to him. He has only one solution to every economic problem and that's been the case for years. But then again, I'm not sure he's been in the business of economics in years either. He's in the business of providing predictable copy to outlets like the NYT. He sells association with his Nobel and that's about it. But hey, that's not worth nothing... having a Nobel Laureate on staff is a pretty nice reputational buff, so I see what the people who employ him get out of the bargin.

[JWags85]

Now this is an honest post. He has been claiming a looming recession for a long time. He is a "the sky is falling" guy.

To go back to the fake depression argument; if I say that the Houston Texans are losers and there is "no end in sight" to their losing, that does NOT mean I am saying that they will be losers to the end of time. It means than under the current situation, there is no end in sight. In other words, until there is change.

Lenny knows this. Wags knows this. But as much as these two decry politics on the board, they go after Krugman because of his politics.

My point still stands. He did not talk about a depression. These two guys (who poured over his quotes so intently) also intentionally left one specific word that Krugman said out of their posts. That is pushing an agenda - not an attempt at honesty.

Thats rich coming from you.  Not everything has to be some political axe to grind, I'm sure that is very hard for you to process.  Everything has to be blue and red, good vs evil in your world.

And I didn't even bring up Krugman, nor did I "pour" over his quotes.  It was a couple paragraph opinion piece in the NYT.  Krugman could have said it about Obama or about Biden and it still would have been castigated and moronic.  Dude is hysterical and a constant Chicken Little who makes bombastic statements to stay relevant.  He made a magnificently terrible prediction about the internet and its effects on the economy 15 years ago, and then claimed he was just "having fun" when proven to be a clown.  I couldn't care less if he was a bleeding heart liberal or a conservative stalwart, much less making dire predictions about a President I never voted for and constantly was annoyed by economically/market wise.

And in your Texans example, if you made that claim and someone said you proclaimed them to be "perennial losers", you would surely say that's incorrect.  But anyone with a brain could see that is what is inferred.  Hiding behind "thats not literally what he said" is a great way to always have an out and label others as dishonest. 

You thinking its "pushing an agenda" to deduce "there is no end in sight" to a recession is the same as forecasting depression, specifically when speaking to a 4 year presidential term which would be well within the bounds of a depression.  Well, that reeks of you trying to prove a point in your constant battle of black and white, political good vs evil.

[Lennys Tap]

Especially given that I totally sat out the Krugman discussion. But whatevs.

My mistake, Mike. I thought it was you saying that I wasn't a liar, but that I misspoke. It wasn't you, it was Jockey. Humble apologies.

[Lennys Tap]

Paul Krugman has been saying one thing for at least 21 years: "The world is on the verge of recession/depression and nobody will do what I say to avert this looming crisis." That he said such a thing in 2016 is as surprising as the Packers special teams sucking again each October. As dependable as the tides.

Source(s)?

Look, I don't know if Paul Krugman is the stupidest man in the world. Maybe he does routinely predict recessions that will never end (i.e.,depressions) or markets that will never recover (i.e., depressions) for all sort of reasons. If so, it kind of makes you wonder how he got a Nobel Prize and how he keeps a job writing for the NYT.

But that's what he said the day Trump was elected and he was spectacularly wrong on that occasion. And that's a fact no matter what Jockey says.

[The Sultan]

Paul Krugman got his Nobel Prize because he is a gifted academic who wrote a paper on a key concept of international trade, breaking ground on new knowledge in the field of economics.

Paul Krugman is a pretty bad macroeconomic forecaster whose column in the NYT could be written by anyone with a keyboard.

These can both be true.

[Pakuni]

Look, I don't know if Paul Krugman is the stupidest man in the world.

If getting a prediction wrong makes one "the stupidest man in the world," there are a lot of stupidest men in the world on Scoop. Both of us included.

[tower912]

Source(s)?

Look, I don't know if Paul Krugman is the stupidest man in the world.

If he is also anti-vax/pro-Ivermectin, then maybe.

[Lennys Tap]

If getting a prediction wrong makes one "the stupidest man in the world," there are a lot of stupidest men in the world on Scoop. Both of us included.

The guy's an economist who (according to another poster, not me) has routinely and incorrectly predicted recessions and depressions throughout the greatest bull market in history. That's a special kind of stupid.

[JWags85]

Paul Krugman got his Nobel Prize because he is a gifted academic who wrote a paper on a key concept of international trade, breaking ground on new knowledge in the field of economics.

Paul Krugman is a pretty bad macroeconomic forecaster whose column in the NYT could be written by anyone with a keyboard.

These can both be true.

I actually agree with this.  Paul Krugman the academic and professor is intelligent and respected and with legitimate bona fides.  However in practice and in real time, he's an awful prognosticator, which is hardly unique among economic academics cause markets and economies don't operate in perfect vacuums.

His Nobel Prize and accompanying ego and repeated brashness with terrible predictions are what makes him a joke situationally like this, in the eyes of many.

[Jockey]

Thats rich coming from you.  Not everything has to be some political axe to grind, I'm sure that is very hard for you to process.  Everything has to be blue and red, good vs evil in your world.

And I didn't even bring up Krugman, nor did I "pour" over his quotes.  It was a couple paragraph opinion piece in the NYT.  Krugman could have said it about Obama or about Biden and it still would have been castigated and moronic.  Dude is hysterical and a constant Chicken Little who makes bombastic statements to stay relevant.  He made a magnificently terrible prediction about the internet and its effects on the economy 15 years ago, and then claimed he was just "having fun" when proven to be a clown.  I couldn't care less if he was a bleeding heart liberal or a conservative stalwart, much less making dire predictions about a President I never voted for and constantly was annoyed by economically/market wise.

And in your Texans example, if you made that claim and someone said you proclaimed them to be "perennial losers", you would surely say that's incorrect.  But anyone with a brain could see that is what is inferred.  Hiding behind "thats not literally what he said" is a great way to always have an out and label others as dishonest. 

You thinking its "pushing an agenda" to deduce "there is no end in sight" to a recession is the same as forecasting depression, specifically when speaking to a 4 year presidential term which would be well within the bounds of a depression.  Well, that reeks of you trying to prove a point in your constant battle of black and white, political good vs evil.

Your post is waaaay to much effort to prove somebody said something he didn't.

You could have just disagreed with what Krugman said without saying he said something else.

[jficke13]

Paul Krugman got his Nobel Prize because he is a gifted academic who wrote a paper on a key concept of international trade, breaking ground on new knowledge in the field of economics.

Paul Krugman is a pretty bad macroeconomic forecaster whose column in the NYT could be written by anyone with a keyboard.

These can both be true.

Precisely this.

[MU82]

My mistake, Mike. I thought it was you saying that I wasn't a liar, but that I misspoke. It wasn't you, it was Jockey. Humble apologies.

I appreciate this, Tony. Take care.

[JWags85]

Your post is waaaay to much effort to prove somebody said something he didn't.

You could have just disagreed with what Krugman said without saying he said something else.

Of course you have no rebuttal for a explanatory post, just sticking to your pithy crap so you can continue to call others dishonest and playing sides.

You disagreed with me and Lenny, made BS accusations, justifications, and digs and tried to hide behind politics again.  I don't even know why I'm surprised.  Can't wait for your hypocrisy when someone with an (R) next to their name implies something without directly saying it and you have a hysterical post frothing at the mouth about whatever your keyword of the week is.

[4everwarriors]

Owned, hey?

[Lennys Tap]

Larry's been predicting apocalyptic inflation since January, and nothing close to what he forecast has materialized.
The problem with an appeal to authority argument is that it only works when the authority is right.

Paul Tudor Jones: Inflation not transitory...biggest threat to society.

[pacearrow02]

4th quarter GDP expectations have gone from 6% growth now revised down to 0.5% but the administration will somehow lead us to believe that's a good thing somehow and expected.

But hey, no mean tweets.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1450625098185117696

[MU82]

There was a huge water main break in Charlotte this week, and hundreds of thousands of residents are under a boil-water advisory.

It's an old water system that hasn't been updated in decades, even as Charlotte has grown to be the nation's 15th-largest city.

When most people think of "infrastructure," they think of roads, but U.S. water systems have been neglected for years. I hope like heck that what happened in Charlotte doesn't start happening in NY, Houston, DC, Miami, etc, on an even larger scale.

(Disclosure: I live just outside Charlotte, and thankfully our area wasn't affected.)

[The Sultan]

Paul Tudor Jones: Inflation not transitory...biggest threat to society.

I mean..maybe?  I tend to think that investors like Jones view things from the world of investment more than the world of reality.  Even his comments about inflation were more about bad bond investments.

[Pakuni]

Paul Tudor Jones: Inflation not transitory...biggest threat to society.

Paul Tudor Jones must be the stupidest man in the world.*

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones on Thursday said that America will beat the deadly coronavirus pandemic, while sharing his own personal narrative, noting that his daughter contracted the illness recently and has since recovered.
"I don't think we need to panic," he said.
By his own estimates, Jones speculated that the disease could infect one million people in the U.S. in a worst-case scenario and applying a 4% mortality rate—far greater than most epidemiologist are assigning to the disease—roughly 40,000 people would die due to the deadly pathogen. He said that although he believes such losses would be tragic, he compared that to lives lost during a bad influenza season

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/man-who-called-1987-crash-says-be-careful-not-to-mythologize-coronavirus-into-a-pandemic-godzilla-predicts-stocks-will-rebound-in-a-few-months-2020-03-26


As of yesterday, we've seen more than 45 million COVID infections in the U.S. and about 728,000 deaths. Paul was off just a little.

*According to the Lenny Scale of Human Stupidity

[pacearrow02]

Paul Tudor Jones must be the stupidest man in the world.*

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones on Thursday said that America will beat the deadly coronavirus pandemic, while sharing his own personal narrative, noting that his daughter contracted the illness recently and has since recovered.
"I don't think we need to panic," he said.
By his own estimates, Jones speculated that the disease could infect one million people in the U.S. in a worst-case scenario and applying a 4% mortality rate—far greater than most epidemiologist are assigning to the disease—roughly 40,000 people would die due to the deadly pathogen. He said that although he believes such losses would be tragic, he compared that to lives lost during a bad influenza season

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/man-who-called-1987-crash-says-be-careful-not-to-mythologize-coronavirus-into-a-pandemic-godzilla-predicts-stocks-will-rebound-in-a-few-months-2020-03-26


As of yesterday, we've seen more than 45 million COVID infections in the U.S. and about 728,000 deaths. Paul was off just a little.

*According to the Lenny Scale of Human Stupidity

Yes Paul was the only one back in March of 2020 who made incredibly bad predictions.