COVID Economy

[rocky_warrior]

Weary is actually spot on, typo or not.  As for wary, probably, but unfortunately, in my industry, if I was wary of working with everyone that most businesses/industries would have big red flags with…I wouldn’t have many customers

Good to hear wetwork is back at pre-pandemic levels

 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Weary is actually spot on, typo or not.  As for wary, probably, but unfortunately, in my industry, if I was wary of working with everyone that most businesses/industries would have big red flags with…I wouldn’t have many customers

Yup. We seldom get to choose our clients.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Good to hear wetwork is back at pre-pandemic levels

 

I laughed.

[Skatastrophy]

I understood it at the time but the moratorium has gone too long

I disagree. We're going into the 2nd winter of a multi-year pandemic. Increasing homelessness in the middle of a public health crisis is bad for the population as a whole.

[JWags85]

I disagree. We're going into the 2nd winter of a multi-year pandemic. Increasing homelessness in the middle of a public health crisis is bad for the population as a whole.

It was not a moratorium based on a pandemic but the accompanying economic turbulence as a result of business shutdowns and lockdowns.  If you think we are in the same place economically as last spring, I don’t know what to tell you. Take the emotion out of it.

[Skatastrophy]

It was not a moratorium based on a pandemic but the accompanying economic turbulence as a result of business shutdowns and lockdowns.  If you think we are in the same place economically as last spring, I don’t know what to tell you. Take the emotion out of it.

There's no emotion involved for me, just the threat of lockdowns this fall/winter with the existing breakthrough variants. Really poor timing, imo, but I suppose we'll see.

[JWags85]

There's no emotion involved for me, just the threat of lockdowns this fall/winter with the existing breakthrough variants. Really poor timing, imo, but I suppose we'll see.

I struggle to see lockdowns happening again. Especially on a national level, for a variety of reasons including uproar and push back from vaccinated people.  That being said, continuing something with vast economic implications and costs in “anticipation” of issues in 2-3 months or more is just not wise or prudent to me.  I’d say the same thing about additional stimulus payments in anticipation of lockdowns or rough months ahead

[Skatastrophy]

I struggle to see lockdowns happening again. Especially on a national level, for a variety of reasons including uproar and push back from vaccinated people.  That being said, continuing something with vast economic implications and costs in “anticipation” of issues in 2-3 months or more is just not wise or prudent to me.  I’d say the same thing about additional stimulus payments in anticipation of lockdowns or rough months ahead

Do you think that there will be no COVID mitigation measures this fall/winter in the North before we get to the point that hospitals are full like they are down south? So far the covid curve has followed last year nearly exactly as far as severity, time of year, and region of the US.

With regards to the eviction moratorium: Experimenting with changes like this in the middle of a pandemic is a danger to the economy as well as public health. Through all of this, Congress should have acted instead of leaving it up to the supreme court and the CDC to set policy.
 
Additionally, there's $46B aside for landlords impacted by the eviction moratorium. The Trump admin refused to distribute those dollars, and the Biden admin made it a wild maze to try and get at the dollars you're owed as an impacted landlord.  Huge whiff.

Dunno if you're a podcast person, but a few weeks ago there was a good Odd Lots episode with the president of the Dallas Fed that touched briefly (and tangentially) on this question - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-09/dallas-fed-president-rob-kaplan-on-the-economy-and-monetary-policy-right-now

[JWags85]

Do you think that there will be no COVID mitigation measures this fall/winter in the North before we get to the point that hospitals are full like they are down south? So far the covid curve has followed last year nearly exactly as far as severity, time of year, and region of the US.

With regards to the eviction moratorium: Experimenting with changes like this in the middle of a pandemic is a danger to the economy as well as public health. Through all of this, Congress should have acted instead of leaving it up to the supreme court and the CDC to set policy.
 
Additionally, there's $46B aside for landlords impacted by the eviction moratorium. The Trump admin refused to distribute those dollars, and the Biden admin made it a wild maze to try and get at the dollars you're owed as an impacted landlord.  Huge whiff.

Dunno if you're a podcast person, but a few weeks ago there was a good Odd Lots episode with the president of the Dallas Fed that touched briefly (and tangentially) on this question - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-09/dallas-fed-president-rob-kaplan-on-the-economy-and-monetary-policy-right-now

No mitigation? No, I’m sure there will be. But mask mandates and potentially capacity limitations. I don’t think we see lockdowns and shelter in place orders that force close businesses and cut off people’s income again, for a variety of reasons.

I don’t disagree that Congress handled it all poorly, but I don’t see it as experimenting, just ending something that should never have been perpetual.  And further, I don’t think it should have been broad brush across the board.  I’m not clamoring for even more government input and oversight, but I think it should have been handled through UEI or the like. But that’s just me. I’m not a fan of continuing economic protections or supplements indefinitely cause COVID is ongoing, irrespective of any number of metrics on the economy and job market

[MU82]

From the WSJ:

U.S. workers are quitting their jobs at some of the highest rates in years, the Wall Street Journal says — including many millennials. The rate of people leaving jobs reached 2.8% in April, according to the Labor Department, the highest in at least two decades. In June, some 3.9 million Americans resigned, while the number of job openings jumped to more than 10 million; a record. Some say they are so burned out from pandemic-era work they are leaving without a Plan B, living on their savings and taking online courses in new subjects or brushing up on their skills.

[Jockey]

From the WSJ:

U.S. workers are quitting their jobs at some of the highest rates in years, the Wall Street Journal says — including many millennials. The rate of people leaving jobs reached 2.8% in April, according to the Labor Department, the highest in at least two decades. In June, some 3.9 million Americans resigned, while the number of job openings jumped to more than 10 million; a record. Some say they are so burned out from pandemic-era work they are leaving without a Plan B, living on their savings and taking online courses in new subjects or brushing up on their skills.

I believe this is a good thing, Mike.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

From the WSJ:

U.S. workers are quitting their jobs at some of the highest rates in years, the Wall Street Journal says — including many millennials. The rate of people leaving jobs reached 2.8% in April, according to the Labor Department, the highest in at least two decades. In June, some 3.9 million Americans resigned, while the number of job openings jumped to more than 10 million; a record. Some say they are so burned out from pandemic-era work they are leaving without a Plan B, living on their savings and taking online courses in new subjects or brushing up on their skills.

Anecdotal, my DIL left her job in May because she was completely burnt out of the remote work.  Took the summer off and did some volunteer stuff with the local pet rescue.  Doesn't think she will have trouble re-entering the workforce this Fall because she is contacted nearly daily by people in her network / headhunters.

[JWags85]

I believe this is a good thing, Mike.

I agree. I think it speaks favorably to the job market.  If people are struggling or can’t find work, you don’t willfully leave a job.

This also goes back to what we were speaking of a few months ago.  People talking about the “end” of the traditional office and business travel.   Remote work is great for some jobs and some people, but it’s certainly not for everyone nor is it suddenly the new gold standard because of what happened out of necessity during a pandemic

[MU82]

Well, here's one way to deal with the labor shortage ...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3736251-mcdonalds-franchise-in-oregon-hiring-14-year-olds-amid-labor-shortage?app=1&mail_subject=pre-market-summary-on-your-portfolio-lojack&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=link-7&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

A McDonald's restaurant in Medford, Oregon is now hiring employees in their mid-teens as companies struggle to hire compete for workers in a tight labor market. 14- and 15-year-olds are allowed to legally work a maximum of three hours on a school day and 23 hours in a week in the state.

"There are always staffing issues, but this is unheard of," the Biddle Road restaurant operator, Heather Coleman told Business Insider. Coleman, whose family has operated McDonald's franchises for 40 years, praises the younger workers' drive and work ethic, along with their ability to grasp the technology "really quickly." She says that the restaurant received about 25 new applications in 2 weeks after opening the door to younger applicants as opposed to disappointing results she got from raising the minimum wage to $15.

[Hards Alumni]

Well, here's one way to deal with the labor shortage ...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3736251-mcdonalds-franchise-in-oregon-hiring-14-year-olds-amid-labor-shortage?app=1&mail_subject=pre-market-summary-on-your-portfolio-lojack&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=link-7&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

A McDonald's restaurant in Medford, Oregon is now hiring employees in their mid-teens as companies struggle to hire compete for workers in a tight labor market. 14- and 15-year-olds are allowed to legally work a maximum of three hours on a school day and 23 hours in a week in the state.

"There are always staffing issues, but this is unheard of," the Biddle Road restaurant operator, Heather Coleman told Business Insider. Coleman, whose family has operated McDonald's franchises for 40 years, praises the younger workers' drive and work ethic, along with their ability to grasp the technology "really quickly." She says that the restaurant received about 25 new applications in 2 weeks after opening the door to younger applicants as opposed to disappointing results she got from raising the minimum wage to $15.

I honestly don't know why this is news... I was working part time when I was 14.  Maybe these jobs weren't as available to teens in the early 2000s and 2010s? 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

14 year olds have been working at McDonald's, grocery stores, etc for years.  My 14 year old worked part-time this summer and loved it.  He wanted to get a second job, but we told him no, he needed to be a kid too (so he moped and played video games).

[Hards Alumni]

14 year olds have been working at McDonald's, grocery stores, etc for years.  My 14 year old worked part-time this summer and loved it.  He wanted to get a second job, but we told him no, he needed to be a kid too (so he moped and played video games).

Good training for adulthood. 

[MU82]

I honestly don't know why this is news... I was working part time when I was 14.  Maybe these jobs weren't as available to teens in the early 2000s and 2010s?

I worked "off the books" when I was 14 but I'm pretty sure you couldn't get hired at a "real job" in Connecticut at that age in the 1970s.

I think the news angle in this particular article is the lengths companies are going to mitigate the labor shortage. Apparently, it's not all that common for companies to go out of their way to reach out to 14-year-olds.

[tower912]

GM preparing to halt most North American production.  COVID and the chip shortage.

[MU82]

U.S. employers add only 235K jobs in August, far fewer than expected

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/03/business/economy/august-2021-jobs-report.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20210903&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=67998&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa

The American economy slowed abruptly last month, adding 235,000 jobs, a sharp drop from the huge gains recorded earlier in the summer and an indication that the Delta variant of the coronavirus is putting a damper on hiring.

The Labor Department report on Friday follows a sharp increase in coronavirus cases and deaths that has undermined hopes that restrictions on daily activities were nearing an end.

The unemployment rate was 5.2 percent, compared with 5.4 percent in July. Economists polled by Bloomberg has been looking for gain of 725,000 jobs.

The August showing would have been respectable in prepandemic times. But after gains of 962,000 in June and 1.05 million in July — and with more than eight million people unemployed — it was a sharp deceleration.

[MU82]

Two anchors of COVID safety net ending, affecting millions

https://apnews.com/article/covid-19-safety-net-ending-unemployment-evictions-bca43d873a61a9059c72fe15b88b9a9a?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sept.%206%20AP%20Morning%20Wire&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers

Mary Taboniar went 15 months without a paycheck, thanks to the COVID pandemic. A housekeeper at the Hilton Hawaiian Village resort in Honolulu, the single mother of two saw her income completely vanish as the virus devastated the hospitality industry.

For more than a year, Taboniar depended entirely on boosted unemployment benefits and a network of local foodbanks to feed her family. Even this summer as the vaccine rollout took hold and tourists began to travel again, her work was slow to return, peaking at 11 days in August — about half her pre-pandemic workload.

Taboniar is one of millions of Americans for whom Labor Day 2021 represents a perilous crossroads. Two primary anchors of the government’s COVID protection package are ending or have recently ended. Starting Monday, an estimated 8.9 million people will lose all unemployment benefits. A federal eviction moratorium already has expired.

While other aspects of pandemic assistance including rental aid and the expanded Child Tax Credit are still widely available, untold millions of Americans will face Labor Day with a suddenly shrunken social safety net.

“This will be a double whammy of hardship,” said Jamie Contreras, secretary-treasurer of the SEIU, a union that represents custodians in office buildings and food service workers in airports. “We’re not anywhere near done. People still need help. ... For millions of people nothing has changed from a year and a half ago.”

For Taboniar, 43, that means her unemployment benefits will completely disappear — even as her work hours vanish again. A fresh virus surge prompted Hawaii’s governor to recommend that vacationers delay their plans.

“It’s really scaring me,” she said. “How can I pay rent if I don’t have unemployment and my job isn’t back?”

Sectors like hotel housekeepers and office janitorial staffs have been the slowest to recover.

“Our industry is the tip of the spear when it comes to COVID,” said D. Taylor, president of UNITE HERE, a union that represents hotel housekeepers — a field that is “primarily staffed by women and people of color.”

Many of those housekeepers never returned to full employment even as Americans resumed traveling and hotel occupancy rates swelled over the summer.

Taylor said several major hotel chains have moved to permanently cut down on labor costs by reducing levels of service under the guise of COVID. Taboniar’s hotel in Hawaii for example has shifted to cleaning rooms every five days unless the guest specifically requests otherwise in advance. Even as the hotel was at more than 90% occupancy in August, she was only employed for half her usual pre-pandemic number of days.

[jesmu84]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/05/unemployment-benefits-economy/

[tower912]

Holy predictable, batman.

[jesmu84]

Holy predictable, batman.

Sure. But that's gonna have big consequences for a consumer-based economy.

[tower912]

So is the lack of computer chips.   So is the lack of child care.    So are the lack of builders and contractors in Ida flood areas.