COVID Economy

[The Sultan]

Voodoo economics indeed.

[Jockey]

No one seriously believed that they did, least of all the trickle down proponents. But it was a nice way to con the rubes.

But as we saw the last 4 years (and continue to see), the rubes will believe it anyway.

Evidence is like science to them. Why would you believe it?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Evidence is like science to them. Why would you believe it?

Yup. They're reality-proofed.

[shoothoops]

Delta:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/01/delta-hands-out-bonuses-to-managers-whose-pay-was-cut-in-the-pandemic.html?__twitter_impression=true

Reduced staff by 18k
Lost $12 Billion last year.
Received $8.5 Billion bailout.
No extra pay for front line employees.
Managers getting $100k raises.

[GooooMarquette]

Delta:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/01/delta-hands-out-bonuses-to-managers-whose-pay-was-cut-in-the-pandemic.html?__twitter_impression=true

Reduced staff by 18k
Lost $12 Billion last year.
Received $8.5 Billion bailout.
No extra pay for front line employees.
Managers getting $100k raises.

Wow. I get that companies in the travel industry are hurting enormously, and I'm not surprised by the workforce reduction. But pay raises for management are not a good look.

[MU82]

'Murica!

[JWags85]

Wow. I get that companies in the travel industry are hurting enormously, and I'm not surprised by the workforce reduction. But pay raises for management are not a good look.

FWIW, it's not a raise as much as a make good.  It says a lot of management took large paycuts and these payouts went to making up some of their salary.

It's still bad optics and questionable use of CARES Act funds, but it's not like these were added bonuses on top of existing salaries or bumping people's normal salaries up by X%. And it's not executive pay. This is far more likely going to people making under 6 figures. Management is a BROAD term. My first role at PepsiCo was technically management and I wasn't able to move out of a place with roommates in Chicago to a 1BR until I got promoted.

[pacearrow02]

Great jobs report!!  As states begin to fully reopen in next 30-60 days the economic boom that follows could be historic.

Repurpose the 100s of billions of unused dollars already approved in the first couple Covid stimulus packages to help out those in need but I don't see the purpose of passing this 1.9 trillion dollar package. 

[The Sultan]

Great jobs report!!  As states begin to fully reopen in next 30-60 days the economic boom that follows could be historic.

Repurpose the 100s of billions of unused dollars already approved in the first couple Covid stimulus packages to help out those in need but I don't see the purpose of passing this 1.9 trillion dollar package. 

Because the trend is good but we aren't near where we were in February.  Get money in people's hands to spend.

https://twitter.com/WHCOS/status/1367845935636709385?s=20

Ronald Klain
@WHCOS
If you think today's jobs report is "good enough," then know that at this pace (+379,000 jobs/month), it would take until April 2023 to get back to where we were in February 2020.

[pacearrow02]

Because the trend is good but we aren't near where we were in February.  Get money in people's hands to spend.

https://twitter.com/WHCOS/status/1367845935636709385?s=20

Is this an acknowledgment to how wel the economy was roaring under orange bad man?  Just messing around, imo the February report is the bottom of what we'll see over the next 8-10 months of growth. 

I'd expect as things open back up monthly job gains of 500,000+ will be the norm for awhile.  If there weren't hundreds of billions of dollars unused sitting out there I'd understand the need to do more now but there's still so much sitting out there, I just don't see the need to throw more money onto the pile but if it gets passed it's also not something that I'll lose sleep over. 

Ronald Klain
@WHCOS
If you think today's jobs report is "good enough," then know that at this pace (+379,000 jobs/month), it would take until April 2023 to get back to where we were in February 2020.

[shoothoops]

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1367691857120145409?s=19

Chris Murphy takes less than ten minutes to explain it:

[The Sultan]

Yes, Trump benefitted greatly from the Obama economy.

[pacearrow02]

Yes, Trump benefitted greatly from the Obama economy.

Back handed compliment but it's a start.

[Hards Alumni]

To me, it is better to throw more money out there rather than come back in a couple of months and do this stupid song and dance all over again.  If at the end of the day there is a bunch sitting in a pot that goes unused there will be something we will need it for.  Replenish FEMA funds, VA upgrades, or.... a permanent UBI (don't drag me, it was mostly a joke). 

[pacearrow02]

To me, it is better to throw more money out there rather than come back in a couple of months and do this stupid song and dance all over again.  If at the end of the day there is a bunch sitting in a pot that goes unused there will be something we will need it for.  Replenish FEMA funds, VA upgrades, or.... a permanent UBI (don't drag me, it was mostly a joke). 

I love the idea of UBI as long as it replaces the other programs that are full of waste and abuse.  I think the Yang Gang is onto something.

[Hards Alumni]

I love the idea of UBI as long as it replaces the other programs that are full of waste and abuse.  I think the Yang Gang is onto something.

The idea that those programs are 'full' of waste and abuse is a fallacy pushed by those with an agenda to remove them.  But I can agree that a UBI could be used to reduce those services.

[jesmu84]

I love the idea of UBI as long as it replaces the other programs that are full of waste and abuse.  I think the Yang Gang is onto something.

Waste and abuse?

I thought you believed 99% of people follow the rules?

[jesmu84]

The economic fallout right now is the worst in the country's history. If the Fed hadn't backstopped wall street, God knows where we'd be. But good for the wealthy for that, at least.

We don't need more? Horsecrap. We aren't doing enough for the majority of Americans. That includes those who lost jobs or had hours/pay cut or had businesses forced to close. I don't care what side of the aisle any individual is on, they all deserve help. And significantly more help.

If you're gonna start complaining about debt/deficit, then please stop before you start. Educate yourselves on economics first. Start with modern monetary theory then continue with the true economics/finance behind the 2009 bailout (hint: $29 trillion) and go from there.

[pacearrow02]

Waste and abuse?

I thought you believed 99% of people follow the rules?

Which I admitted to being a bit of wishful thinking and in context of the vaccine card stuff we were talking about.  If the conversation would have been about following traffic rules, etc I would have not had that same 99% response but good one.

[pacearrow02]

The economic fallout right now is the worst in the country's history. If the Fed hadn't backstopped wall street, God knows where we'd be. But good for the wealthy for that, at least.

We don't need more? Horsecrap. We aren't doing enough for the majority of Americans. That includes those who lost jobs or had hours/pay cut or had businesses forced to close. I don't care what side of the aisle any individual is on, they all deserve help. And significantly more help.

If you're gonna start complaining about debt/deficit, then please stop before you start. Educate yourselves on economics first. Start with modern monetary theory then continue with the true economics/finance behind the 2009 bailout (hint: $29 trillion) and go from there.

Yikes

[pacearrow02]

Forecasted 2021 gdp is set to return to prepandemic levels in a couple months, January was a record month for construction, avg American household savings at all time highs.  Are there segments of America struggling and businesses just skirting by, absolutely.

PPP loans are still widely available for small business to access and an increase in UI with federal help on back rent etc is hopefully enough to get through this.  I'm not suggesting there is zero opportunity for govt to step in and offer a hand.  From what I've read the vast majority of this latest package has little to do with helping those in need out though.

I never once mentioned debt or deficit, couldn't give a sh*t less about it honestly.

[jesmu84]

Forecasted 2021 gdp is set to return to prepandemic levels in a couple months, January was a record month for construction, avg American household savings at all time highs.  Are there segments of America struggling and businesses just skirting by, absolutely.

PPP loans are still widely available for small business to access and an increase in UI with federal help on back rent etc is hopefully enough to get through this.  I'm not suggesting there is zero opportunity for govt to step in and offer a hand.  From what I've read the vast majority of this latest package has little to do with helping those in need out though.

I never once mentioned debt or deficit, couldn't give a sh*t less about it honestly.

Educate yourself on GDP. And the flaws of the metric. There's a good video on youtube under "economics explained" to start.

If you don't care about debt/deficit, then why do you care if the government pumps out more support money?

Lastly, were you supportive of the first stimulus bill?

[pacearrow02]

Educate yourself on GDP. And the flaws of the metric. There's a good video on youtube under "economics explained" to start.

If you don't care about debt/deficit, then why do you care if the government pumps out more support money?

Lastly, were you supportive of the first stimulus bill?

So what should I be looking at when trying to figure out the health of the economy? 

Yes I was in favor of the first and second.  Not entirely against a third, just think it can be a little more focused and pared down a bit.

[jesmu84]

So what should I be looking at when trying to figure out the health of the economy? 

Yes I was in favor of the first and second.  Not entirely against a third, just think it can be a little more focused and pared down a bit.

It's a good question. I am not an economist. But I don't believe looking at any single one metric is good.

What do you think should be more focused? What should be removed?

[pacearrow02]

It's a good question. I am not an economist. But I don't believe looking at any single one metric is good.

What do you think should be more focused? What should be removed?

$923 billion in the bill is for direct relief to people to include the $1400 one time check, $400 bump up in weekly, unemployment checks, increase in child tax credit, earned income tax credit, expansion of affordable care act subsidies for two years, extended paid sick leave and employee retention credit, subsidize cobra coverage for laid off workers, and a few other things.

That all makes sense.  Which leaves about 1 trillion dollars worth of things that while important and deserve govt support, I believe they should be separated out and voted on as individual policy topics.