COVID Economy

[Jockey]

Georgia’s early move to start easing stay-at-home restrictions nearly a month ago has done little to stem the state’s flood of unemployment claims — illustrating how hard it is to bring jobs back while consumers are still afraid to go outside.

Weekly applications for jobless benefits have remained so elevated that Georgia now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance. A staggering 40.3 percent of the state's workers — two out of every five — has filed for unemployment insurance payments since the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread shutdowns in mid-March, a POLITICO review of Labor Department data shows.


I said weeks ago that the recovery could take a couple years. I'm starting to hope that it is that short.

[GooooMarquette]

Man, the economy is so .. effed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/economy/coronavirus-unemployment-claims.html

“I hate to say it, but this is going to take longer and look grimmer than we thought,” Nicholas Bloom, an economist at Stanford University, said of the path to recovery.
Mr. Bloom is a co-author of an analysis that estimates 42 percent of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss.

“Firms intend to hire these people back,” he said, referring to a recent survey of businesses by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. “But we know from the past that these aspirations often don’t turn out to be true.”

I think the pessimism is due to employer fear that: (1) customers are going to come back slowly and cautiously; and (2) there will be a significant second wave later this summer or in the fall. If we had waited until all states met the CDC criteria for reopening, we would have seen more short-term economic pain, but I believe the rebound would have been more robust and sustainable.

[Jockey]

I think the pessimism is due to employer fear that: (1) customers are going to come back slowly and cautiously; and (2) there will be a significant second wave later this summer or in the fall. If we had waited until all states met the CDC criteria for reopening, we would have seen more short-term economic pain, but I believe the rebound would have been more robust and sustainable.

There will be some great psychological studies and papers in the years ahead. How did people react when things started to open back up? Did they make changes to their spending/savings habits? Where they willing to take on risk as restaurants began to function? Were they fearful of a 2nd wave and did they try to position themselves financially in case it came. How many bankruptcies due to people not wanting to mingle at stores? How will common folks react when the rich and powerful use the recovery as an opportunity to screw everyone else?

There will be a hundred more questions as well.

[forgetful]

There will be some great psychological studies and papers in the years ahead. How did people react when things started to open back up? Did they make changes to their spending/savings habits? Where they willing to take on risk as restaurants began to function? Were they fearful of a 2nd wave and did they try to position themselves financially in case it came. How many bankruptcies due to people not wanting to mingle at stores? How will common folks react when the rich and powerful use the recovery as an opportunity to screw everyone else?

There will be a hundred more questions as well.

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to break a habit. We had way over 21 days of shelter in place.

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to create a new habit. It will take awhile for people to get back in the habit of "being normal".

[Jockey]

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to break a habit. We had way over 21 days of shelter in place.

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to create a new habit. It will take awhile for people to get back in the habit of "being normal".

I don't know. The diet industry thrives because 21 days don't matter aren't enough. People fall back into their old habits.

For other things, it may well be the case.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I don't know. The diet industry thrives because 21 days don't matter aren't enough. People fall back into their old habits.

For other things, it may well be the case.

21 days was my magic number to quit smoking.

Diet and exercise....not so much.

[GooooMarquette]

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to break a habit. We had way over 21 days of shelter in place.

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to create a new habit. It will take awhile for people to get back in the habit of "being normal".

That might mean people will become habituated to getting out after 21 days...if numbers aren’t starting to go back up by then. But if the numbers are ramping up, we may need continual “resets.”

[#UnleashSean]

In study of the human mind...

6 months of consistency to become a routine. 12 months to become a habit.

[MU82]

Here in NC, restaurants are being allowed to reopen (with restrictions) but bars aren’t. They just announced today that breweries and taprooms will be allowed to reopen. My buddies and I are talking about reviving our traditional Thursday night get-together next week

[Lennys Tap]

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to break a habit. We had way over 21 days of shelter in place.

It takes 21 days of consistent effort to create a new habit. It will take awhile for people to get back in the habit of "being normal".

Wonder how many recovering alcoholics and drug addicts (for whom in person 12 step meetings are deemed non essential) will fall off the wagon and ruin their own lives and the lives of those close to them as they revert to old habits. Meanwhile, liquor stores and pot shops are deemed essential.

[4everwarriors]

Here in NC, restaurants are being allowed to reopen (with restrictions) but bars aren’t. They just announced today that breweries and taprooms will be allowed to reopen. My buddies and I are talking about reviving our traditional Thursday night get-together next week

Ewe got buds, hey?

[forgetful]

Wonder how many recovering alcoholics and drug addicts (for whom in person 12 step meetings are deemed non essential) will fall off the wagon and ruin their own lives and the lives of those close to them as they revert to old habits. Meanwhile, liquor stores and pot shops are deemed essential.

As someone who has a couple close friends that fall into that camp. I hope they are all getting the help they need. They should absolutely be considered essential. Maybe have more meetings, and keep them smaller, but they should have been ongoing this entire time.

[#UnleashSean]

, liquor stores and pot shops are deemed essential.

Alcohol withdrawal is legit one of the deadliest. Pot is a very good drug alternative to tons of liver killing legal ones.

[MU82]

Ewe got buds, hey?

Nah ... 2 expennsuv. Eye still ewez hedfonez.

[Elonsmusk]

Pressure cooker starting to get turned up on Govs who are still enforcing strict stay at home orders, business restrictions.  The wake up call for those Govs and public sector will happen in next few months.  States just now starting to feel the affects of what happens when sales tax revenue doesn't come in.  Keep in mind heavy local taxes on hotels, rental cars, not coming in. etc.  Layoffs = no  State Income Tax Revenue.  State Fairs getting cancelled.

Massive layoffs and paycuts will soon play out in the public sector/universities, just as has been taking place in private sector since April 1.  Will be interesting to see how the tune changes as state aid programs need to get cut and taxes raised further in the states with some of the highest taxes already - New York, Connecticut, Minnesota, New Jersey, Illinois, California.  All but MN will probably see their Bond Ratings return to Junk and will see further underfunding of pension funds, with additional raises in taxes.


Easy to argue for continued shelter in place if still employed.  For the 40 million Americans out of work and 100,000s of small business owners out of business - they probably feel differently.

[forgetful]

Pressure cooker starting to get turned up on Govs who are still enforcing strict stay at home orders, business restrictions.  The wake up call for those Govs and public sector will happen in next few months.  States just now starting to feel the affects of what happens when sales tax revenue doesn't come in.  Keep in mind heavy local taxes on hotels, rental cars, not coming in. etc.  Layoffs = no  State Income Tax Revenue.  State Fairs getting cancelled.

Massive layoffs and paycuts will soon play out in the public sector/universities, just as has been taking place in private sector since April 1.  Will be interesting to see how the tune changes as state aid programs need to get cut and taxes raised further in the states with some of the highest taxes already - New York, Connecticut, Minnesota, New Jersey, Illinois, California.  All but MN will probably see their Bond Ratings return to Junk and will see further underfunding of pension funds, with additional raises in taxes.


Easy to argue for continued shelter in place if still employed.  For the 40 million Americans out of work and 100,000s of small business owners out of business - they probably feel differently.

I've argued for reasonable compromises between health and economy on here. What we are doing now in some locations, and is not a reasonable compromise it places the economy as the priority.

There are things we can do to offset economic losses. We can support specific industries, do basic universal incomes, temporarily to make sure businesses and people are not adversely affected by partial shutdowns.

We cannot bring people back from the dead.

[Jockey]

21 days was my magic number to quit smoking.

Diet and exercise....not so much.

I read your comments - and you may have quit smoking but did you really quit “smoking”?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I read your comments - and you may have quit smoking but did you really quit “smoking”?

No more Marlboros but still smoking the libs with my keyboard, yah?

Or do you mean the weed?

[4everwarriors]

Pretty sure some here have got what Uncle Joe has, without the national stage to pee themselves.

#driedupbrainmatter

[Mutaman]

Pretty sure some here have got what Uncle Joe has, without the national stage to pee themselves.

#driedupbrainmatter

Whatever we  and/or Joe has, I doubt we're  so unnatural carnal knowledgeed up that  you'll hear any of us running around accusing some morning show tv host of murder. On the weekend the country closes in on 100K coronavirus deaths.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

No more Marlboros but still smoking the libs with my keyboard, yah?

Or do you mean the weed?

Keyboard Warrior, Action Pose

[Elonsmusk]

I've argued for reasonable compromises between health and economy on here. What we are doing now in some locations, and is not a reasonable compromise it places the economy as the priority.

There are things we can do to offset economic losses. We can support specific industries, do basic universal incomes, temporarily to make sure businesses and people are not adversely affected by partial shutdowns.

We cannot bring people back from the dead.

You could argue mandating small business owners to close and exponentially increase their likelihood of losing their business (and employees) that they've invested personal capital, sweat, energy, and effort into for years isn't a reasonable compromise.

I supported the lock down measures.  However, at this stage with 40 million unemployed, companies failing on the regular, it cannot continue.  The CARES act tried to help small business,
but didn't stop thousands if not hundreds of thousands from calling it quits.  Companies and businesses don't just get made overnight - they take years to grow and sustain.  Re-creating jobs after this passes is NOT going to happen quickly.

Everyone has a date with death.  Those elderly and with underlying risk factors should absolutely be quarantined and stay home.  But for the rest of the world who have minuscule risk of death?  Policy that has left 40 million Americans unemployed in a matter of 7 weeks, cannot continue. 

The rest of us can do our part by wearing masks, social distancing publicly, not bring risk to those older loved ones by visiting.

[Pakuni]

Everyone has a date with death.  Those elderly and with underlying risk factors should absolutely be quarantined and stay home.  But for the rest of the world who have minuscule risk of death?  Policy that has left 40 million Americans unemployed in a matter of 7 weeks, cannot continue. 

The rest of us can do our part by wearing masks, social distancing publicly, not bring risk to those older loved ones by visiting.

Gross cavalier attitude notwithstanding, which states aren't in the process of reopening?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

You could argue mandating small business owners to close and exponentially increase their likelihood of losing their business (and employees) that they've invested personal capital, sweat, energy, and effort into for years isn't a reasonable compromise.

I supported the lock down measures.  However, at this stage with 40 million unemployed, companies failing on the regular, it cannot continue.  The CARES act tried to help small business,
but didn't stop thousands if not hundreds of thousands from calling it quits.  Companies and businesses don't just get made overnight - they take years to grow and sustain.  Re-creating jobs after this passes is NOT going to happen quickly.

Everyone has a date with death.  Those elderly and with underlying risk factors should absolutely be quarantined and stay home.  But for the rest of the world who have minuscule risk of death?  Policy that has left 40 million Americans unemployed in a matter of 7 weeks, cannot continue. 

The rest of us can do our part by wearing masks, social distancing publicly, not bring risk to those older loved ones by visiting.

We know it can’t continue. That’s why states are reopening.

[forgetful]

You could argue mandating small business owners to close and exponentially increase their likelihood of losing their business (and employees) that they've invested personal capital, sweat, energy, and effort into for years isn't a reasonable compromise.

Well I wouldn't mandate small businesses to close right now. So not sure what you are getting at. Seems like its way off base an trying to put words into peoples mouth.

And regarding small business owners. PPP failed. It never took into consideration the lost revenue for the small business owner, and his responsibilities. That lost revenue is never coming back (although I've seen prices at some local places now double what they used to be).

That doesn't mean that there aren't better alternatives to protect the small business owner and their investments.

I just hope when this is all said and done, we all get on board and recognize health emergencies shouldn't ruin peoples lives. And that those that invested their hard work, and energy to save a nest egg, only to have to declare bankruptcy for a health emergency are treated the way they should. That it is not their fault, and they shouldn't have to pay for it.