Sweden?

[mu_hilltopper]

Any thoughts on how Sweden is dealing with COVID?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000



https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/can-you-beat-covid-19-without-a-lockdown-sweden-is-trying

[Jay Bee]

Any thoughts on how Sweden is dealing with COVID?

If their goal is for people to die quicker, it's good

[tower912]

Nanny state health care.    Many single person households.   Relatively healthy populous.    A gamble, to be sure.    But if you have a population lacking co-morbitities as well as a well funded, staffed, and efficient health care system, maybe.     But that model does not exist in America.   

[The Sultan]

It's strange that they mention overall population density.  The only reason they have less density is because it is a big country with a lot of wilderness.  Where most of the people live is just as dense as most other European cities.

[jesmu84]

Nanny state health care.    Many single person households.   Relatively healthy populous.    A gamble, to be sure.    But if you have a population lacking co-morbitities as well as a well funded, staffed, and efficient health care system, maybe.     But that model does not exist in America.

Which model?

[Jockey]

It's strange that they mention overall population density.  The only reason they have less density is because it is a big country with a lot of wilderness.  Where most of the people live is just as dense as most other European cities.

No it's not. There are only 3 or 4 cities in Sweden that are larger than the greater Racine area.

[The Sultan]

No it's not. There are only 3 or 4 cities in Sweden that are larger than the greater Racine area.

I said "dense." 

[tower912]

Which model?

Any of it. 

[MarquetteDano]

In term of per capita deaths, they are not exactly killing it (no pun intended):

Sweden deaths per 100,000 in population: 14
Norway deaths per 100,000 in population:  3  (a lot of similarities between Norway & Sweden, but not in COVID deaths)

[forgetful]

In term of per capita deaths, they are not exactly killing it (no pun intended):

Sweden deaths per 100,000 in population: 14
Norway deaths per 100,000 in population:  3  (a lot of similarities between Norway & Sweden, but not in COVID deaths)

Norway has also ran 4x as many tests per capita as Sweden. Sweden's numbers are then likely under-reported.

[MU82]

Which model?

Elin Nordegren? Great 9-iron, sources say.

[jesmu84]

Any of it.

I thought our healthcare system was the best in the world? And universal healthcare was a terrible idea?

[WarriorDad]

Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

[The Sultan]

Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

"But Sweden's 1,937 deaths is far higher in number and proportionally to Denmark's 370 and Finland's 141."

That's a lot of "pain."

[WarriorDad]

An interview with another Swedish epidemiologist who believes stay home orders do not work and not evidence-based. It will be fascinating when all is said and done as the world reviews the approaches taken, what worked, what did not, why an action worked in one place but not another (democracy, geography, discipline).  I don't know if what Sweden is doing is right, but they have been criticized for their approach.  Maybe they have it right?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

[Pakuni]

Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

So, on the same day Tengell gave this interview (praising his own policy), 545 new cases were reported in Sweden. That's up 39 percent from the previous day's 392. 185 additional deaths were reported as well. the largest number since the outbreak began.
Could be a one-day anomaly, could be him spiking the ball on the 5 yard line.

But given that no one has any idea whether herd immunity is a sure thing with this virus, or how long it lasts, let's hope for Sweden's sake this isn't a "Mission Accomplished" moment.

[Pakuni]

An interview with another Swedish epidemiologist who believes stay home orders do not work and not evidence-based. It will be fascinating when all is said and done as the world reviews the approaches taken, what worked, what did not, why an action worked in one place but not another (democracy, geography, discipline).  I don't know if what Sweden is doing is right, but they have been criticized for their approach.  Maybe they have it right?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

"Covid-19 is a "mild disease" and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people."

Provably false.

[buckchuckler]

I thought our healthcare system was the best in the world? And universal healthcare was a terrible idea?

Yeah, the universal healthcare systems in the UK, Italy and Spain are certainly the envy of the world.

[rocky_warrior]

Sweden expected to reach herd immunity within weeks.  Maybe they got it right all along.  More pain upfront, but less long term pain financially and health? 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


They have scientists, too, and their scientists chose a different path.

Well, I'm not sure I trust Tegnell's "science" - in the article you linked,

Tegnell said he was "fairly confident" in the strategy his agency had pursued but said it would be too early for the Swedish government to lift restrictions imposed to delay the spread of the virus. "A big part of the country has not been affected at all yet."

But on March 5th - he also thought they had reached their maximum.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden's top epidemiologist, has been under increasing pressure. On March 5, he said that the spread of the epidemic had probably reached its maximum. At the time, only 94 people were infected in the country, a figure that has since shot into the thousands.

To the utter consternation of many Swedes — including former Prime Minister Carl Bildt — Tegnell said in a TV interview on March 18 that it was safe for people who live in the same household as an infected person to continue going to work or to school.

It's still a dangerous experiment - we'll see.  Also note, they do have some restrictions....

Sweden's government has advocated working from home if at all possible and to avoid nonessential travel and social contact with the elderly. Meanwhile, restaurants, bars, cafes and nightclubs have been offering seated table service only, and gatherings of more than 50 people have been banned.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I'd have to say any analysis of strategy is premature until we know how broad the infection & immunity is. 

This summation of the interview declared 20% infection rates based on anti-body.  So they need to at least triple this right? 

It wouldnt shock me if NY is at 20% and the hospital system was pushed to the brink. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

[The Sultan]

Yeah, the universal healthcare systems in the UK, Italy and Spain are certainly the envy of the world.

Actually Italy's is considered pretty good. The problem they had was it hit them early. Germany's is real good too. 

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I would also point out that Stockholm (metro) is only about 25% of the country.  So this really seems like a thin conclusion as of yet (20% of Stockholm has Covid and therefore best path)

[Hards Alumni]

Couple of things.

It's way too early to judge Sweden's policy.  Give it a month and we will know if they had a good plan.

It would be foolish to compare Sweden to the US, density, comorbidities, etc.

[MarquetteDano]

I wonder if we will not even know whether Sweden's technique is better in a few months?  We might need a full year, assuming a second wave hits.  Maybe they get clobbered now and then are better prepared for the second wave?

Compared to their neighbors (which is the best comparison given locale, wealth, culture, similar health care, etc.) they are not doing well.  Compared to the US,  they are doing about the same.

[Lennys Tap]

Stockholm is as dense (or denser) than much of the USA. Their plan (protect the most vulnerable, get to herd immunity ASAP) will save their economy and likely save lives. In areas where our health care providers aren't in danger of being overwhelmed it is the 'least bad" plan I've seen. My guess is other countries will follow.