Sweden?

[jesmu84]

Really?  You think people want it to fail.  No, people think it's dangerous.  Please provide ANY proof that it has "worked" at all so far.

Not to mention that we won't know if it works until a possible 2nd wave rolls through. And if there's evidence of long term immunity after infection.

Sweden seems to be a big topic right now. Was this broadcast on any cable news outlets or websites lately?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Goes to show not all scientists agree with the characterizations, including epidemiologists. 

The chicosest of arguments.

If there is one person that disagrees, why then, there is no consensus and all arguments are equally valid, right?

[Hards Alumni]

The chicosest of arguments.

If there is one person that disagrees, why then, there is no consensus and all arguments are equally valid, right?

[Pakuni]

I would like to see that on a per capita basis, not absolute numbers.  Yes, it is more pain, but at what cost.  For instance, if Sweden pulls this off and their numbers drop while Denmark, Finland, and others continue to have deaths while also destroying their way of life that is the pain of a different kind which leads to more deaths (suicides, stress-related illnesses).

Sweden = 173.33 deaths per million
Denmark = 63.82
Norway = 34.25
Finland = 25.55

Why do you blithely refer to hundreds, if not thousands, of additional lost lives as "pain" on par with economic hardship and stress?

[StillAWarrior]

Here in Connecticut, my daughter’s tell me that one of their friends (and also the friends younger brother) believe they had Coronavirus in mid-February.  Both had a respiratory illness, hard to breath, low grade fever and no nose blowing.  Lasted about 2 weeks.  Their doctor gave a flu test which came back negative.

My daughter -- who was in DC at the time -- believes she had it in mid-February.  Pretty extreme shortness of breath that lasted a bit more than a week.  I'm skeptical, but maybe I shouldn't be -- it certainly is possible.  No testing of any sort.

[Pakuni]

The chicosest of arguments.

If there is one person that disagrees, why then, there is no consensus and all arguments are equally valid, right?

500 epidemiologists ...

[forgetful]

True, but I haven’t heard any evidence that suggests that will be the case with Covid19. Please provide if there is.

In the main coronavirus thread I provided links to the best data out there regarding SARS-like coronaviruses a while back. The bottom line is we do not know. There are some antibodies still circulating in recovered patients from SARS for up to 3-years, at what point that amount of antibodies drops below the threshold to offer protection, we do not know. So an upper bound of some protection for SARS of up to 3 years.

MERS is much different, significant drop-off of antibodies by 3-months. So you might lose any protection in 3-6 months. There is some data to suggest SARS-CoV2 may be more like MERS.

Based on other coronaviruses, we are likely looking at reasonable immunity for up to a year. Dropping of afterwards. What we have to hope is that subsequent infections will be less severe, but we do not know if that will be the case at all yet.

[Lennys Tap]

Nobody wants that.  Choose to be smarter than that.

Chico says “some”. Finds 3 people in the entire world (nothing is unanimous due to crazy people) and says “See, I was right!”. But not really.

[tower912]

We agree.  Typical passive aggressive trolling with the inevitable hurt lashing out and obscure reference that he that he thinks proves his point but that he hasn't actually read through enough to know it disproves his point.   

 The discussion in this thread has ranged from skepticism to hope.    But nobody in this thread is rooting for Sweden to fail.   


We all want the same outcomes.    We want our lives back.     We want treatment, testing, and a vaccine.   

[Pakuni]

The discussion in this thread has ranged from skepticism to hope.    But nobody in this thread is rooting for Sweden to fail.   

Right. I believe the Swedish government may be choosing a reckless course of action. I sincerely hope no one in Sweden suffers as a result of that.

[Lennys Tap]

Right. I believe the Swedish government may be choosing a reckless course of action. I sincerely hope no one in Sweden suffers as a result of that.

May prove reckless, make prove effective, especially compared to other approaches. I hope the latter and that Sweden provides a blueprint (however imperfect and in need of tweaking) to help the world get past this nightmare.

[WarriorDad]

Really?  You think people want it to fail.  No, people think it's dangerous.  Please provide ANY proof that it has "worked" at all so far.

For their option to work, it takes time.  Pain up front, less pain on the back end.  Only way to prove it is with time.  Sweden, myself, you nor anyone else can make the clock go faster to prove it works.  I don't think any of us know, but their approach is novel.

In my opinion based on some comments here around states opening up, Sweden and mostly the Hydro drug there is a degree of glee expressed at times.  Almost to prove they were right and how stupid others are.  I understand the Trump hatred and wanting to prove him wrong on the drugs he recommended, but even then one would think as humans we want these things to work not score points when they do not.   

If the argument is that Sweden's approach is dangerous or Iowa's or North Dakota, that is a legitimate argument.  It also doesn't make it a correct or incorrect argument at this time because the clock is running and this whole thing is far from done.
Time will ultimately tell.  Maybe Sweden has it wrong, but maybe they don't.  In my opinion there are people that gleefully hoping it fails so they can do an I told you so, in the same way they do on other topics. 

Others here are allowed to copy articles as examples of how someone nailed it or backs their belief and that is ok.  In my opinion this reporter nails it.  "Herd immunity vs Herd Mentality".  We should all want whomever comes up with a winning idea to have it succeed, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

[WarriorDad]

Deaths per M:

Sweden 192
Denmark 66
Norway 34
Finland 27

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Sweden has the equivalent of ~64,000 deaths vs. the U.S. ~47,000 and appears to be accelerating sharply based on the "Death per Day" chart for every country.

Or is Sweden front loading their deaths and ultimately will have fewer?  Your extrapolation is linear and none of us know if herd immunity will be the benefit of their approach meaning not a flattening of the curve, but a seismic drop off in the outer months.  None of us know.  They are doing better than some nations in Europe and worse than others.  I'm glad another nation as at least trying this.  It is risky, and they are taking the heat for their call, but someone needed to do this at a large scale.  If everyone tried the same approach, then we don't learn anything from it.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

In my opinion there are people that gleefully hoping it fails so they can do an I told you so, in the same way they do on other topics.

No.  No one thinks that.

When 99% of the countries handle it one way, and Sweden and a few others handle things differently, of course the 99% are going to think that Sweden is doing it wrong.  You are correct.  Time may tell.

But no one wants them to be wrong, killing thousands needlessly in the process, just so they can be right.

[Jockey]

For their option to work, it takes time.  Pain up front, less pain on the back end.  Only way to prove it is with time.  Sweden, myself, you nor anyone else can make the clock go faster to prove it works.  I don't think any of us know, but their approach is novel.

In my opinion based on some comments here around states opening up, Sweden and mostly the Hydro drug there is a degree of glee expressed at times.  Almost to prove they were right and how stupid others are.  I understand the Trump hatred and wanting to prove him wrong on the drugs he recommended, but even then one would think as humans we want these things to work not score points when they do not.   

If the argument is that Sweden's approach is dangerous or Iowa's or North Dakota, that is a legitimate argument.  It also doesn't make it a correct or incorrect argument at this time because the clock is running and this whole thing is far from done.
Time will ultimately tell.  Maybe Sweden has it wrong, but maybe they don't.  In my opinion there are people that gleefully hoping it fails so they can do an I told you so, in the same way they do on other topics. 

Others here are allowed to copy articles as examples of how someone nailed it or backs their belief and that is ok.  In my opinion this reporter nails it.  "Herd immunity vs Herd Mentality".  We should all want whomever comes up with a winning idea to have it succeed, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

Is it hard to remember whether you are posting as chico or as WD? A lot of chico posts end up coming from Warrior Dad..

[Hards Alumni]

No.  No one thinks that.

When 99% of the countries handle it one way, and Sweden and a few others handle things differently, of course the 99% are going to think that Sweden is doing it wrong.  You are correct.  Time may tell.

But no one wants them to be wrong, killing thousands needlessly in the process, just so they can be right.

Oh, don't worry, I know at least one person who is keeping score.  As if this were some sort of sick sport.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I'd have to say any analysis of strategy is premature until we know how broad the infection & immunity is. 

This summation of the interview declared 20% infection rates based on anti-body.  So they need to at least triple this right? 

It wouldnt shock me if NY is at 20% and the hospital system was pushed to the brink. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

New York Times reporting today that NYC is in fact at 21% based on an antibody survey.  Shows the equivalency not necessarily there and if we go for faster herd immunity the deaths would be pretty staggering.

[cheebs09]

It’s not like Sweden’s way is without risk. They are still relying on good luck it works out. If herd immunity never happens then it’s going to look really bad. If their death toll is so high early, that even as others slowly increase, the vaccine or treatment is implemented in time to minimize more deaths, Sweden could be on the high side.

I hope both ways work and mitigate as many deaths as possible. However, I have some skepticism that we can point to Sweden as doing it the best way at this point in time.

[GooooMarquette]

New York Times reporting today that NYC is in fact at 21% based on an antibody survey.  Shows the equivalency not necessarily there and if we go for faster herd immunity the deaths would be pretty staggering.

Yep. Most estimates are that a 70-90% infection rate is required to have a chance at herd immunity. But if we want to be optimistic, let's say it would happen. Still, if you cut it in the middle and assume we'd get there with an 80% infection rate, NYC would still only be a quarter of the way there.

Regardless of any long-term benefit, I don't think anyone would want to see three more replays of what NYC just went through.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Or is Sweden front loading their deaths and ultimately will have fewer?  Your extrapolation is linear and none of us know if herd immunity will be the benefit of their approach meaning not a flattening of the curve, but a seismic drop off in the outer months.  None of us know.  They are doing better than some nations in Europe and worse than others.  I'm glad another nation as at least trying this.  It is risky, and they are taking the heat for their call, but someone needed to do this at a large scale.  If everyone tried the same approach, then we don't learn anything from it.

https://www.northsidesun.com/breaking-news-columns/herd-immunity-versus-herd-mentality

You asked for the numbers by population and I gave them to you. When that proves you wrong you change the argument. So, so chicos.

In the last two days, Sweden has had the U.S. equivalent of 11,700 deaths. If you are interested in participating in that sort of experiment you can leave the Beer Summit in Idaho and check out Georgia.

[WarriorDad]

Frederick Erixon is a Swedish economist, writer and head of ECIPE and wrote this a few days ago in a UK periodical regarding the Swedish experiment.  A few excerpts.

“ a journalist from French television that I talked to on Sunday admitted, somewhat sheepishly, that ‘it’s almost as if we want Sweden to fail because then we would know it is you and not us that there is something wrong with’.”


 “Sweden hasn’t declared victory — far from it.  It’s still early days on this pandemic and no one really knows yet how the virus will spread once restrictions are lifted and what excess mortality it will have caused when it’s all over.  Sweden doesn’t know the size of the iceberg and will remain unclear for weeks if parts of Sweden has developed some degree of herd immunity”

“Swedish economic situation looks sensationally positive when compared to the ghastly reports and scenarios elsewhere.  Cash turnover indicators, for instance, suggest that personal consumption in Denmark and Finland has dropped to 66 and 70 percent respectively — compared to less than 30 percent here in Sweden.  Unemployment benefit claims in Norway have shot through the roof and grown four times as fast as Sweden.”

“The economy has to be factored into a balanced pandemic response if it is going to last longer than a few weeks more.  No country can sustain suppression policies if they have catastrophic consequences for the economy”

[tower912]

Epic goalpost shift.   How in the hell could I have forgotten about the inevitable goalpost shift? 

[Pakuni]

Whoops.

The Swedish Public Health Agency made international headlines yesterday by estimating that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1. Less than 24 hours later, the Agency has taken a dramatic u-turn and withdrawn the report.
The decision was announced via Twitter: "We have discovered an error in the report and so the authors are currently going through the material again. We will republish the report as soon as it is ready."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#2fa916d64349

In the three days since Sweden declared it had reached its plateau:
April 20 = 392 new cases, 40 new deaths
April 21 = 545 new cases, 185 new deaths
April 22 = 682 new cases, 172 new deaths

[tower912]

Not 'whoops'.   They have gambled this is the path.  If they are proven right in two years, kudos.

[WarriorDad]

You asked for the numbers by population and I gave them to you. When that proves you wrong you change the argument. So, so chicos.

In the last two days, Sweden has had the U.S. equivalent of 11,700 deaths. If you are interested in participating in that sort of experiment you can leave the Beer Summit in Idaho and check out Georgia.

I think your numbers are correct in terms of cases and deaths, at least how they count them.  With the benefit of seeing the future, none of us know if your extrapolations are accurate.  Thus far the predictions for Sweden of cases and deaths have been wrong and overstated.  Erixon ticks through the gloomy predictions and the outcomes thus far in his article.  Will that hold, only time will tell.  My desire is someone figures out the path here and having Sweden choose a different one is important for humanity in the event their approach works.  Why some are hoping it doesn’t work (they have admitted it) is an odd thing to come to grips with.