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Author Topic: Truth about Flattening the Curve  (Read 1303 times)

Jay Bee

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #25 on: March 25, 2020, 10:09:51 PM »
You don’t flatten the curve “by getting some people infected.” You flatten the curve because some people already have the infection. If they didn’t, there would be no curve to flatten.

No. You manufacture the curve by encouraging some to get it now with a loose 'quarantine'... flattening the curve means you want a small amount to get it throughout.. that's all. And that's what Minnesota has done without saying. They WANTED some people to get ill. Not saying it's right or wrong, but that was the game plan.... to help flatten

forgetful

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #26 on: March 25, 2020, 10:13:23 PM »
Does it need to be?  Isn’t it obvious?

The information and strategy is widespread out there. The problem is, most have no desire to read it, and don't understand it. The paper guiding all the strategies nations are using right now has been widely linked on this site. It is long, and a bit technical.

It is easier to simply say "flatten the curve" and "lengthen the runway". The fact is, total number of infections are larger with these strategies, but mortality is lower.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #27 on: March 25, 2020, 10:14:19 PM »
No. You manufacture the curve by encouraging some to get it now with a loose 'quarantine'... flattening the curve means you want a small amount to get it throughout.. that's all. And that's what Minnesota has done without saying. They WANTED some people to get ill. Not saying it's right or wrong, but that was the game plan.... to help flatten

Guess we are going to have to disagree. I think the first viruses were already in US (and likely MN) before Walz had the ability to do anything. At that point a curve was inevitable, and the only questions were how much we can flatten it, and at what cost.

forgetful

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Jay Bee

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #29 on: March 25, 2020, 10:29:17 PM »
Guess we are going to have to disagree. I think the first viruses were already in US (and likely MN) before Walz had the ability to do anything. At that point a curve was inevitable, and the only questions were how much we can flatten it, and at what cost.

You're saying exactly what I'm saying. Walz believes there is no ability to change the total... he delayed the stay at home measure to flatten it.

I'm just asking for some honesty when these people are talking about it.

e.g, ' I delayed because we can help flatten if more die NOW'


MUBurrow

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #30 on: March 25, 2020, 10:29:33 PM »
I'll simplify my view: Walz could have put the order in effect long ago. It was inevitable and that was clear to any non-dumbass human.  He delayed. The questions are why. I believe the reason is he wanted to start to flatten the curve by people getting infected (and some dying). So he held off.

I do think there's a bit of semantic disconnect between holding off knowing people will get sick and holding off wanting people to get sick.  I think weeks ago Walz was operating on three "facts" (i put in quotes because these can still be argued, though I think they're generally accepted then and now): (i) that instituing a shutdown would slow, but not stop/prevent spread (ii) with eventual spread inevitable the goal became flattening the curve to give healthcare a puncher's chance at keeping up, and (iii) long term, immunity will be a part of the equation at making this less deadly.

But I don't think the shutdown delay was in service of the immunity piece, immunity is just kind of the 'solution' of last resort that comes on its own.  I think the real reason for delay is from a political-economic standpoint, if you shutdown early, what is the case for ever un-shutting down? You wait a bit to prevent people from arguing that you cost everyone an extra paycheck and a chance to prepare before things were bad.  Not saying its the right call, but I think its what happened. 

Jay Bee

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #31 on: March 25, 2020, 10:36:55 PM »
I do think there's a bit of semantic disconnect between holding off knowing people will get sick and holding off wanting people to get sick.  I think weeks ago Walz was operating on three "facts" (i put in quotes because these can still be argued, though I think they're generally accepted then and now): (i) that instituing a shutdown would slow, but not stop/prevent spread (ii) with eventual spread inevitable the goal became flattening the curve to give healthcare a puncher's chance at keeping up, and (iii) long term, immunity will be a part of the equation at making this less deadly.

But I don't think the shutdown delay was in service of the immunity piece, immunity is just kind of the 'solution' of last resort that comes on its own.  I think the real reason for delay is from a political-economic standpoint, if you shutdown early, what is the case for ever un-shutting down? You wait a bit to prevent people from arguing that you cost everyone an extra paycheck and a chance to prepare before things were bad.  Not saying its the right call, but I think its what happened.

We're probably very close in our views, but I'm struggling to understand what you think the argument was for delaying an obvious eventual shut down.

forgetful

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #32 on: March 25, 2020, 10:43:39 PM »
We're probably very close in our views, but I'm struggling to understand what you think the argument was for delaying an obvious eventual shut down.

Read the paper. There are benchmarks for when you should optimally transition to "shut down" mode. I guarantee you most states have there own custom version of this model based on their respective treatment capacities.

Jay Bee

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #33 on: March 25, 2020, 11:01:32 PM »
Read the paper. There are benchmarks for when you should optimally transition to "shut down" mode. I guarantee you most states have there own custom version of this model based on their respective treatment capacities.

You mean their vs. there?  What paper? Happy to tear it apart


GooooMarquette

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #35 on: March 25, 2020, 11:16:07 PM »
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


I found this passage near the end of the paper especially alarming:

However, we emphasise that is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.

In other words: Once this cat got out of the bag, we were dealing with a new type of animal, so even the experts aren't sure exactly how well we can contain it, and at what cost....

forgetful

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #36 on: March 25, 2020, 11:39:28 PM »

I found this passage near the end of the paper especially alarming:

However, we emphasise that is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.

In other words: Once this cat got out of the bag, we were dealing with a new type of animal, so even the experts aren't sure exactly how well we can contain it, and at what cost....

Agreed, and it is even further complicated by the lack of testing, so we really do not know any of the actual numbers, which are essential to planning/modelling.

Jockey

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #37 on: March 25, 2020, 11:51:59 PM »
We're probably very close in our views, but I'm struggling to understand what you think the argument was for delaying an obvious eventual shut down.

This is the first time I've ever seen you talk honestly about something other than B-Ball (unless maybe when you were insulting me). Quite refreshing, actually and I don't completely disagree with you for a change.

But many governors ARE trying to save lives - both Dems and Republicans. Many more don't care (Florida, Mississippi, Missouri).

But the reason shutdowns didn't come earlier is crystal clear. Because the country was told the whole thing was a hoax, fake news, and that the virus would disappear in a matter of days.

It is important for good people - everyone in this thread - to speak truth and to do whatever little part we can. People need help both physically and emotionally and we all can do little things to help. The country can go two very different ways when there is a true crisis as we have now. We have to try to tilt it the right way. We have to stand up and scream as loud as we can when people openly advocate letting others die just to get through this a bit quicker.

I am surprised but very happy that you are doing that "screaming" in this thread. We need to follow your lead and make our voices heard.

rocky_warrior

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #38 on: March 26, 2020, 12:02:41 AM »
People need help both physically and emotionally and we all can do little things to help.

Thought about starting another thread for this - and probably to Coleman's mental health thread on the superbar. But I'm noticing almost everyone has extra stress now.  Whether it's because there's more to do at work, or boredom, or not enough money coming in, or savings disappearing, or worries about a loved one. Plenty of reasons that everyone is carrying more stress than normal - and we all need to remember to breathe, and help each other out.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #39 on: March 26, 2020, 12:08:36 AM »
Thought about starting another thread for this - and probably to Coleman's mental health thread on the superbar. But I'm noticing almost everyone has extra stress now.  Whether it's because there's more to do at work, or boredom, or not enough money coming in, or savings disappearing, or worries about a loved one. Plenty of reasons that everyone is carrying more stress than normal - and we all need to remember to breathe, and help each other out.


+Infinity

MUBurrow

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #40 on: March 26, 2020, 12:14:28 AM »
We're probably very close in our views, but I'm struggling to understand what you think the argument was for delaying an obvious eventual shut down.

We probably are. I think the main reason was a lack of political will to wear the economic consequences of a shutdown before covid was being felt on the ground at home.  Of course, by then you've waited too long to meaningful stymie spread.  But the uncertainty of when a shutdown would end factors in too.  I think there is a fear to set a precedent for when you shut it down, because its hard to push the message to open it back up until you've gotten to the same point on the other side of the curve.  So if you're super proactive and shut down after 10 cases, I think there's this fear that you have to keep it shut down until you ride the curve up and then get back down to only 10 cases.  Of course that's not how the science behind all this necessarily works, but I think that thought process dictated a lot of the initial delay.

skianth16

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #41 on: March 26, 2020, 12:23:10 AM »

But the reason shutdowns didn't come earlier is crystal clear. Because the country was told the whole thing was a hoax, fake news, and that the virus would disappear in a matter of days.


Maybe that could be the reason why some of the earlier hard hit areas were slow to shut down. I doubt a couple press conferences from Trump were really impacting Cuomo's and Newsom's policy decisions. But maybe.

I think the reality of why cities and states are slow to lockdown is a combination of factors

1- there is a calculable economic cost that is very hard to commit to, even when it's the right thing to do. And the impact is not just for a few weeks.
2 - I doubt any of our local leaders had a playbook or had prepared for this situation. That's sure to cause delays in action
3- Optimism. I'm sure every governor is hoping their situation will be less severe than everyone else's. And until there's real data to show that your state or city is on one of those bad trend charts, it would be hard to accept that you're stuck in the same mess as everyone else. 

Jockey

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #42 on: March 26, 2020, 12:27:28 AM »
Maybe that could be the reason why some of the earlier hard hit areas were slow to shut down. I doubt a couple press conferences from Trump were really impacting Cuomo's and Newsom's policy decisions. But maybe.

I think the reality of why cities and states are slow to lockdown is a combination of factors

1- there is a calculable economic cost that is very hard to commit to, even when it's the right thing to do. And the impact is not just for a few weeks.
2 - I doubt any of our local leaders had a playbook or had prepared for this situation. That's sure to cause delays in action
3- Optimism. I'm sure every governor is hoping their situation will be less severe than everyone else's. And until there's real data to show that your state or city is on one of those bad trend charts, it would be hard to accept that you're stuck in the same mess as everyone else.

You make excellent points here and I don't disagree with any of the three.

I think a 4th would be that no one wanted to be the first to shut things down.

ZiggysFryBoy

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #43 on: March 26, 2020, 12:53:37 AM »
People wont really listen to governors, mayors, CEOs, anyone unless people are dying. Dead ass neighbors are the only thing that really gets attention of the masses. 
Unless Sultan says differently that is, then we’d obviously have to go with that....

--Lighthouse 84, 9/16/18

Eldon

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #44 on: March 26, 2020, 05:49:36 AM »
You're saying exactly what I'm saying. Walz believes there is no ability to change the total... he delayed the stay at home measure to flatten it.

I'm just asking for some honesty when these people are talking about it.

e.g, ' I delayed because we can help flatten if more die NOW'

With some stuff, the government simply needs to lie about it, e.g., bringing down Flight 93.  (The government isn't outright lying so much as it is agreeing to go along with the public's denial).

Regarding a delay of a mass quarantine, I think the reason it was delayed was the timing.  "Social fatigue" sets in after two weeks or so.  After two weeks people become restless and say "f*ck this quarantine, I'm going out and living my life." 

Hence, the government only has a two week window where it can impose the maximum lockdown period.  For the sake of saving as many lives as possible, you want to time the "max lockdown" right before you hit the resource constraint, i.e., right before your hospitals reach capacity.

Hards_Alumni

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #45 on: March 26, 2020, 06:21:22 AM »
People wont really listen to governors, mayors, CEOs, anyone unless people are dying. Dead ass neighbors are the only thing that really gets attention of the masses.

Sad but true

muguru

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #46 on: March 26, 2020, 07:14:17 AM »
This is the first time I've ever seen you talk honestly about something other than B-Ball (unless maybe when you were insulting me). Quite refreshing, actually and I don't completely disagree with you for a change.

But many governors ARE trying to save lives - both Dems and Republicans. Many more don't care (Florida, Mississippi, Missouri).

But the reason shutdowns didn't come earlier is crystal clear. Because the country was told the whole thing was a hoax, fake news, and that the virus would disappear in a matter of days.

It is important for good people - everyone in this thread - to speak truth and to do whatever little part we can. People need help both physically and emotionally and we all can do little things to help. The country can go two very different ways when there is a true crisis as we have now. We have to try to tilt it the right way. We have to stand up and scream as loud as we can when people openly advocate letting others die just to get through this a bit quicker.

I am surprised but very happy that you are doing that "screaming" in this thread. We need to follow your lead and make our voices heard.

It's sh*t like this that pisses me off about society...they hear something on CNN or MSNBC and consider it factual, it becomes a firestorm and then everyone(well everyone who just believes everything they hear) runs with it. NO one checks facts anymore..the American public is so sadly jaded by the media(particularly from a certain side). That's the biggest problem we face with this thing..the media. No one cares about facts anymore..agendas..that's what they care about.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

Hards_Alumni

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #47 on: March 26, 2020, 07:41:35 AM »
It's sh*t like this that pisses me off about society...they hear something on CNN or MSNBC and consider it factual, it becomes a firestorm and then everyone(well everyone who just believes everything they hear) runs with it. NO one checks facts anymore..the American public is so sadly jaded by the media(particularly from a certain side). That's the biggest problem we face with this thing..the media. No one cares about facts anymore..agendas..that's what they care about.

The definition of irony.

Retire0

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #48 on: March 26, 2020, 07:46:17 AM »
It's sh*t like this that pisses me off about society...they hear something on CNN or MSNBC and consider it factual, it becomes a firestorm and then everyone(well everyone who just believes everything they hear) runs with it. NO one checks facts anymore..the American public is so sadly jaded by the media(particularly from a certain side). That's the biggest problem we face with this thing..the media. No one cares about facts anymore..agendas..that's what they care about.

« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 09:54:32 AM by rocky_warrior »
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

Galway Eagle

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Re: Truth about Flattening the Curve
« Reply #49 on: March 26, 2020, 09:54:41 AM »


He definitely won't get the irony but this cracked me up.
“More the knowledge, lesser the ego. Lesser the knowledge, more the ego.” Albert Einstein a note for some posters

 

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