Rebuild Assumptions

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Recurring rankings don’t matter. Top 100 recruits don’t matter. At least they didn’t matter when Wojo took over the program from Buzz. Wojo’s also had a fair amount of Top 100 recruits here. Unfortunately most transferred out..other than Markus and Bailey.

Top 100 recruiting rankings from two+ years ago don't matter when we have a year or more's worth of them actually playing high major basketball to judge them by.

Top 100 rankings matter before a recruit gets to campus because other than the few HS basketball gurus who go to and watch a lot of high level high school basketball, it is the only metric we have to judge the recruits by. It is notoriously inaccurate and while its okay to get excited about a highly ranked class, it should be understood that player may not live up to their ranking...and others may play way above theirs.

This really isn't a hard concept to understand.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On paper the recruiting has been good. Just a lot of guys not lviing up to the hype

Has it been good on paper?

Ellenson was obviously a huge land but other than that? The rest of that class was a low top 100 in Haanif and three three stars. 2016 was solid with three players ranked between 50-100 (yes I know MH was higher before the reclass. 2017 was 4 three stars. 2018 was a class of 1 player that was ranked just outside the top 50. 2019 was a top 75 player and a guy ranked in the 300-400s.

2015 and 2016 were impressive to me. The next three classes were fine but lacked the big fish I was hoping Wojo would continue to land. He was close on several but couldn't land them. The Garcia signing gives me hope, adding Mane would really solidify it for me.

[brewcity77]

Splitting hairs, but Heldt was RSCI top-100 in 2015 & top-75 according to two services.

I think Wojo can diagram plays, but he struggles when games have multiple adjustments. His Plan A & Plan B are generally good, but if it gets to Plan C, he's screwed. I'm also concerned about his lineup choices, because as Rob Lowe (not the actor) has noted on Twitter our most efficient lineups are the ones he uses the least.

Where I really worry is the development of the guys he recruits. Markus has made leaps and bounds, but where are the same strides and consistency from Cain, Bailey, and John? Is everything the fault of injuries and transfers? Why don't our players seem to be adding bulk at this level? Cain, Bailey, & Elliott look about the same as when they got there. Todd Smith did it with Crean's & Buzz's players, why not Wojo's? Is there less of a focus on physicality in the weight room from the staff, and if so do they not see how that allows guys like Mamu to kill us?

Next year's class looks great, but if you don't have a guy to coach them up, why would anyone expect results from that talent?

[WarriorDad]

Splitting hairs, but Heldt was RSCI top-100 in 2015 & top-75 according to two services.

I think Wojo can diagram plays, but he struggles when games have multiple adjustments. His Plan A & Plan B are generally good, but if it gets to Plan C, he's screwed. I'm also concerned about his lineup choices, because as Rob Lowe (not the actor) has noted on Twitter our most efficient lineups are the ones he uses the least.

Where I really worry is the development of the guys he recruits. Markus has made leaps and bounds, but where are the same strides and consistency from Cain, Bailey, and John? Is everything the fault of injuries and transfers? Why don't our players seem to be adding bulk at this level? Cain, Bailey, & Elliott look about the same as when they got there. Todd Smith did it with Crean's & Buzz's players, why not Wojo's? Is there less of a focus on physicality in the weight room from the staff, and if so do they not see how that allows guys like Mamu to kill us?

Next year's class looks great, but if you don't have a guy to coach them up, why would anyone expect results from that talent?

Bailey and John have gained weight and muscle if you look at their player specs.  Cain to a lesser degree.   Before someone says these stats are inflated, MU has Howard and Cain only gaining 5 lbs over three years, but Bailey, John and others 10 to 25 lbs over time period depending who they are.

[WarriorDad]

Recurring rankings don’t matter. Top 100 recruits don’t matter. At least they didn’t matter when Wojo took over the program from Buzz. Wojo’s also had a fair amount of Top 100 recruits here. Unfortunately most transferred out..other than Markus and Bailey.

Recruiting rankings don’t matter after the players arrive and play for awhile.  This is how we know if players are truly worth their rating and see where they transferred down in level of play.  It is true the incoming class may be overhyped, but we do not know yet.  We do know the last class of Coach Williams was overhyped by where those players ended up finishing their careers and their output at MU.

[Dr. Blackheart]

“They are who they thought they are”.  Rankings matter...stars have broad ranges. Are there misses? Sure, but more often than not, it is because of off the court stuff.

Using 247, I would say these have been pretty accurate. The Top 100 have been the impact guys. The next tier have played hard but are inconsistent. And the next tier are flyers who washed out (Ike injury). To say rankings don’t matter is simply not true.

Jayce was a four star (87)
Ed was a four star (111)
Markus was a four star after reclassification (68) but a five originally
Koby was a three star (175)
Sacar was a three star (191)
Theo was a three star (204)
Greg was a three star (224)
Jamal was a three star (145)
Ike was a a three star (377)
Sam was a four star (83)
Joey was a four star (52)
Brendan was a four star (92)

[Elonsmusk]

Top 100 recruiting rankings from two+ years ago don't matter when we have a year or more's worth of them actually playing high major basketball to judge them by.

Top 100 rankings matter before a recruit gets to campus because other than the few HS basketball gurus who go to and watch a lot of high level high school basketball, it is the only metric we have to judge the recruits by. It is notoriously inaccurate and while its okay to get excited about a highly ranked class, it should be understood that player may not live up to their ranking...and others may play way above theirs.

This really isn't a hard concept to understand.

You know what is a hard concept to understand?  Why Wojo played the returning All Big East freshman, Deonte Burton an average of 15 minutes per game on a horse crap team.

Duane has a pretty good first year. JJJ was all over the place under Wojo. Luke was also inconsistent. And Dawson was a capable player.

Much like we’ve seen since that first year..guys have been highly inconsistent and all over the place in their production under Wojo.

It is NO surprise to me Wojo has been a bust. Was evident just watching his first year. And second. Completely clueless as it relates to roster combinations, rotations, and locker room management.   Sometimes it takes more than just trying harder to be successful - you have to have some intellect, nuance, and smarts.

Not sure why this is such a hard concept for you to understand.

[jesmu84]

You know what is a hard concept to understand?  Why Wojo played the returning All Big East freshman, Deonte Burton an average of 15 minutes per game on a horse crap team.

Duane has a pretty good first year. JJJ was all over the place under Wojo. Luke was also inconsistent. And Dawson was a capable player.

Much like we’ve seen since that first year..guys have been highly inconsistent and all over the place in their production under Wojo.

It is NO surprise to me Wojo has been a bust. Was evident just watching his first year. And second. Completely clueless as it relates to roster combinations, rotations, and locker room management.   Sometimes it takes more than just trying harder to be successful - you have to have some intellect, nuance, and smarts.

Not sure why this is such a hard concept for you to understand.

Goalposts moved

[Elonsmusk]

Goalposts moved

Not at all Jesu. Only ones guilty of that are the die hard ProJos who have to dig deep into the package of pretzel logic to rationalize the underwhelming performance. Truly. It’s to the point of absolutely bizzaro. But doesn’t surprise me the level of pride and ego some of the ProJos have.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You know what is a hard concept to understand?  Why Wojo played the returning All Big East freshman, Deonte Burton an average of 15 minutes per game on a horse crap team.

Duane has a pretty good first year. JJJ was all over the place under Wojo. Luke was also inconsistent. And Dawson was a capable player.

Much like we’ve seen since that first year..guys have been highly inconsistent and all over the place in their production under Wojo.

It is NO surprise to me Wojo has been a bust. Was evident just watching his first year. And second. Completely clueless as it relates to roster combinations, rotations, and locker room management.   Sometimes it takes more than just trying harder to be successful - you have to have some intellect, nuance, and smarts.

Not sure why this is such a hard concept for you to understand.

This is a massively different argument than "Wojo had former top 100 players so the roster was great." Roster management, player development, consistency, etc, those are actual legiitimate arguments. I don't agree with all of them  but they are at least legitimate arguments.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

“They are who they thought they are”.  Rankings matter...stars have broad ranges. Are there misses? Sure, but more often than not, it is because of off the court stuff.

Using 247, I would say these have been pretty accurate. The Top 100 have been the impact guys. The next tier have played hard but are inconsistent. And the next tier are flyers who washed out (Ike injury). To say rankings don’t matter is simply not true.

Jayce was a four star (87)
Ed was a four star (111)
Markus was a four star after reclassification (68) but a five originally
Koby was a three star (175)
Sacar was a three star (191)
Theo was a three star (204)
Greg was a three star (224)
Jamal was a three star (145)
Ike was a a three star (377)
Sam was a four star (83)
Joey was a four star (52)
Brendan was a four star (92)

Yes, rankings are good tools for giving broad projections on what to expect from an incoming freshman.

But when you are trying to project what you are going to get from a rising sophomore (or junior or senior), they mean nothing next to what that player's actual projection was the previous year.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yes, rankings are good tools for giving broad projections on what to expect from an incoming freshman.

But when you are trying to project what you are going to get from a rising sophomore (or junior or senior), they mean nothing next to what that player's actual projection was the previous year.

When does MU typically sign recruits, though? Senior year. It's like any other risk/reward situation. The probabilities improve with more history (sample size).

[jesmu84]

Not at all Jesu. Only ones guilty of that are the die hard ProJos who have to dig deep into the package of pretzel logic to rationalize the underwhelming performance. Truly. It’s to the point of absolutely bizzaro. But doesn’t surprise me the level of pride and ego some of the ProJos have.

You absolutely moved from talking about rankings to talking about playing time. See TAMU post directly below yours

[Elonsmusk]

This is a massively different argument than "Wojo had former top 100 players so the roster was great." Roster management, player development, consistency, etc, those are actual legiitimate arguments. I don't agree with all of them  but they are at least legitimate arguments.

TF you gonna do when you first year head coach won’t hardly play you as a sophomore and former Top 50 recruit - Deonte/JJJ.

A coach with just a shred of common sense, upon taking the MU job, would have maxed out that sophomore class’s playing time. Ride or die with them.  Why you’d bring in a one-year rental and max time of Derrick Wilson was beyond me.

Nothing simulated game experience and nothing builds confidence better than a coach who has your back. Wojo should have taken the potential lumps Year 1 maxing all of Duane, JJJ, Dawson, Deonte, Luke. I have zero doubt the team would  have been any worse than the 4-14 effort turned in by Derrick and Carlino.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

I’d be all for Stan replacing Wojo. Stan clearly has great relationships with players and is a fantastic recruiter. He’s the reason some of our best players like Markus chose to come here. He’s even started to take over some of the game plan from Wojo in timeouts it seems. He clearly is able motivate and maybe even strategize with the players better in timeouts than Wojo. He’d be able to salvage most if not all of the incoming recruiting class assuming he was the lead recruiter on a lot of them. Garcia is the one I’m most concerned about where I’m not sure if he stays or leaves if Wojo is gone. I’d rather have Wojo stay and keep him for a year and see what he’s made of rather than Stan takeover and Garcia decommits.

[HutchwasClutch]

I’d be all for Stan replacing Wojo. Stan clearly has great relationships with players and is a fantastic recruiter. He’s the reason some of our best players like Markus chose to come here. He’s even started to take over some of the game plan from Wojo in timeouts it seems. He clearly is able motivate and maybe even strategize with the players better in timeouts than Wojo. He’d be able to salvage most if not all of the incoming recruiting class assuming he was the lead recruiter on a lot of them. Garcia is the one I’m most concerned about where I’m not sure if he stays or leaves if Wojo is gone. I’d rather have Wojo stay and keep him for a year and see what he’s made of rather than Stan takeover and Garcia decommits.

Utterly ridiculous

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

I’d be all for Stan replacing Wojo. Stan clearly has great relationships with players and is a fantastic recruiter. He’s the reason some of our best players like Markus chose to come here. He’s even started to take over some of the game plan from Wojo in timeouts it seems. He clearly is able motivate and maybe even strategize with the players better in timeouts than Wojo. He’d be able to salvage most if not all of the incoming recruiting class assuming he was the lead recruiter on a lot of them. Garcia is the one I’m most concerned about where I’m not sure if he stays or leaves if Wojo is gone. I’d rather have Wojo stay and keep him for a year and see what he’s made of rather than Stan takeover and Garcia decommits.

Apparently you watch the games with Otule's glass eye. 

[brewcity77]

Part of the reason Stan has those great relationships is because that's his role. He's the good cop. Doesn't mean he would succeed in the big chair or be able to translate those skills in a promoted seat. It's a different job.

[auburnmarquette]

Why do we all have to assume that a new coach means a complete rebuild and several horrible years?  It might?  But it's certainly not guaranteed.  Look at Buzz, looks at Gard, look at Jordan (Butler)...it's not that it always works that way but it's not impossible either.  I still believe that MARQUETTE has a lot to offer and Wojo is one variable in that.  Regardless of coach, there are a lot of reasons to play here.

Who here is not FAR more impressed by Coach Duffy and the women's team this year than the men's?  Picked to finish 9th, gets the team to buy-in and scrap all season to a 2nd place finish.  Give me that team, that attitude, that heart.

Wojo never exceeds expectations and I can't stand listening to him anymore.  The timeout debacle at Butler was bad and today was bad and it's mostly been hard to cheer for.  I am super excited about Justin, Oso, & Dawson.  I would love to see them here with a new coach but I don't see all 4 of those things happening.

Far enough points but buzz had the 3 amigos and Lazar carrying over and saying they would stay if buzz stayed, and the coach was lured away by Indiana. If Marquette had fired crean I'm sure buzz would have left too as would those big 4. Plus, buzz worked the juco circuit to instantly refuel and my impression is Marquette wanted to get out of the juco circuit.

I happened to leave another game on the other night when they were running through each big east teams history, and the players recounting the 3 straight home losses for Marquette and booing them on senior night and even throwing things at the players and the coach crying in the locker room - and that was of course the Marquette fan reaction in 1977 with a team that would win the national championship.

With the big east so competitive right now I believe we could have a 2-20 season if wojonand the commits are gone. But who knows, no way to truly read the future so admit I could be wrong and you could be right.

[vogue65]

When does MU typically sign recruits, though? Senior year. It's like any other risk/reward situation. The probabilities improve with more history (sample size).

Not so, sample size increases precision not probability.   Most people crave large sample size, I'm for small sample size.  The large sample size crowd never have enough data to make a decision. 

You don't have to watch a player for hours to see if he is slow or fast, can jump or not, can move laterally, has technique or not, is a hard worker or not, can concentrate or not. 

The most underutilized tool that coach Wojciechowski has is the bench.  It does not take a large sample size to recognise who has it on any given night.

Intuition may be the missing and necessary trate around here.  Too much data not enough action.

[WarriorDad]

Well this is the first time I've ever heard a claim that Wojo and his staff are great coaches that are superior at player development. Never from ProJo's or any independent press articles of MU or Wojo.

I guess if enough posts are written on MUScoop, we will hear everything.

Can you also enlighten us on Deane's superior recruiting?

I said they were great coaches? 

One one hand the complaints are the coaches stink.  On the other hand the complaints are the talent isn’t good enough.  But those weakly talent players are likely to go to the NCAA tournament next week.  Are the weakly talented players doing it despite the coaching? That sounds like something great players might do, not players lacking in talent.

[WarriorDad]

“They are who they thought they are”.  Rankings matter...stars have broad ranges. Are there misses? Sure, but more often than not, it is because of off the court stuff.

Using 247, I would say these have been pretty accurate. The Top 100 have been the impact guys. The next tier have played hard but are inconsistent. And the next tier are flyers who washed out (Ike injury). To say rankings don’t matter is simply not true.

Jayce was a four star (87)
Ed was a four star (111)
Markus was a four star after reclassification (68) but a five originally
Koby was a three star (175)
Sacar was a three star (191)
Theo was a three star (204)
Greg was a three star (224)
Jamal was a three star (145)
Ike was a a three star (377)
Sam was a four star (83)
Joey was a four star (52)
Brendan was a four star (92)

Based on this, surprised we are even sniffing a winning record in a conference this strong.  Here we are doing exactly that.

[willie warrior]

Based on this, surprised we are even sniffing a winning record in a conference this strong.  Here we are doing exactly that.

Yep, 8-10 is sure sniffing. We should be winning/competing for conference titles not sniffing at the plane of .500

[jesmu84]

I said they were great coaches? 

One one hand the complaints are the coaches stink.  On the other hand the complaints are the talent isn’t good enough.  But those weakly talent players are likely to go to the NCAA tournament next week.  Are the weakly talented players doing it despite the coaching? That sounds like something great players might do, not players lacking in talent.

It's an interesting discussion. If the players are poor, it must be good coaching. If the coaching is bad, the players must be more talented

[WarriorDad]

Yep, 8-10 is sure sniffing. We should be winning/competing for conference titles not sniffing at the plane of .500

Some years we will be middle of the pack (this year) and some years competing for conference championships (last year).