"Big Games"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I've been seeing a lot of complaints about not winning big games this season. I went to check our team sheet and after looking it over, I get the complaint.

7 of our 8 losses are Q1A losses (Home 1-15 NET, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40) with the one outlier being the Providence loss (which is a Q2B loss). We do have 2 Q1A wins, but I would argue that they are the two easiest Q1A games on our schedule (H vs. #15 Nova and Away vs #39 Xavier). Both wins are within two spots of the cutoff line for Q1A/Q1B (though if Nova continues to blow out DePaul on the road, they should move up a couple of spots).

We are 3-0 in Q1B games (Butler [H], Georgetown [A] USC [N], and 3-0 in Q2A games (Purdue [H], Xavier [H], Kansas State [A]).

What this tells me is that Wojo beats the teams he "should" and loses to the teams he "should." That can be hella frustrating as a fan because part of the fun of college basketball is the big upsets over top teams. We really haven't gotten that this season. I think this adds to the narrative that Wojo doesn't make the team more than the sum of its parts. That can work, as long as the recruiting continues to raise the talent level of the team but I hope to see some more improvement in this area.

We've played a very tough schedule. Our strength of schedule is #4 in the nation. We don't have any Q1A games remaining in the regular season so our next opportunity for the big win is going to be in the BET or NCAAs. Our remaining games are all Q1Bs except Georgetown which is a Q2A (Seton Hall is also 1 spot away from being Q1A). I would love to see MU continue their undefeated streak in these quadrants and finish the season on a hot streak.

Because of our strength of schedule and the remaining games all being Q2A or better, we are going to make the NCAAs. Barring a 4 or 5 game skid, we are going to be a favored seed in the fist round of the NCAAs. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't extra nervous because of how last season ended but I think the team pulls it together this year and Wojo gets that "can't win in March" monkey off his back.

[Shooter McGavin]

Hope your last paragraph is right. 

[We R Final Four]

Does a Q1A win in the NCAA tourney impact our preseason ranking for next year??
If we win the tourney....I don't care if our win is considered quad 1, 2, or 3.
All bets are off...we are in the tourney.

[wadesworld]

Biggest game of the season is the next one.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Also out of curiosity, I looked at the team sheets of the teams ahead of us on the bracketmatrix (where we are currently the top 6 seed). Our two Q1A wins are:

Tied with:
Michigan State (projected 5 seed)
Butler (5 seed)
Villanova (4 seed)
Florida State (2 seed)
San Diego State (1 seed)

1 more than:
Colorado (5 seed)
West Virginia (4 seed)
Louisville (3 seed)

2 more than:
Auburn (4 seed)
Dayton (2 seed)

In a shocking twist, Q1A wins are hard to come by.

[muguru]

I've been seeing a lot of complaints about not winning big games this season. I went to check our team sheet and after looking it over, I get the complaint.

7 of our 8 losses are Q1A losses (Home 1-15 NET, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40) with the one outlier being the Providence loss (which is a Q2B loss). We do have 2 Q1A wins, but I would argue that they are the two easiest Q1A games on our schedule (H vs. #15 Nova and Away vs #39 Xavier). Both wins are within two spots of the cutoff line for Q1A/Q1B (though if Nova continues to blow out DePaul on the road, they should move up a couple of spots).

We are 3-0 in Q1B games (Butler [H], Georgetown [A] USC [N], and 3-0 in Q2A games (Purdue [H], Xavier [H], Kansas State [A]).

What this tells me is that Wojo beats the teams he "should" and loses to the teams he "should." That can be hella frustrating as a fan because part of the fun of college basketball is the big upsets over top teams. We really haven't gotten that this season. I think this adds to the narrative that Wojo doesn't make the team more than the sum of its parts. That can work, as long as the recruiting continues to raise the talent level of the team but I hope to see some more improvement in this area.

We've played a very tough schedule. Our strength of schedule is #4 in the nation. We don't have any Q1A games remaining in the regular season so our next opportunity for the big win is going to be in the BET or NCAAs. Our remaining games are all Q1Bs except Georgetown which is a Q2A (Seton Hall is also 1 spot away from being Q1A). I would love to see MU continue their undefeated streak in these quadrants and finish the season on a hot streak.

Because of our strength of schedule and the remaining games all being Q2A or better, we are going to make the NCAAs. Barring a 4 or 5 game skid, we are going to be a favored seed in the fist round of the NCAAs. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't extra nervous because of how last season ended but I think the team pulls it together this year and Wojo gets that "can't win in March" monkey off his back.

Finally! Someone acknowledges this! Thanks TAMU...you said it perfectly..They do about what you would expect them to, and no more. And I bet if you look back over Wojo's tenure, you will find similar results.

[MU82]

Finally! Someone acknowledges this! Thanks TAMU...you said it perfectly..They do about what you would expect them to, and no more. And I bet if you look back over Wojo's tenure, you will find similar results.

Obviously, we have won some games we "shouldn't have" the last few years, but certainly not many.

If you saw TAMU's following post, you realize that few teams do.

Also out of curiosity, I looked at the team sheets of the teams ahead of us on the bracketmatrix (where we are currently the top 6 seed). Our two Q1A wins are:

Tied with:
Michigan State (projected 5 seed)
Butler (5 seed)
Villanova (4 seed)
Florida State (2 seed)
San Diego State (1 seed)

1 more than:
Colorado (5 seed)
West Virginia (4 seed)
Louisville (3 seed)

2 more than:
Auburn (4 seed)
Dayton (2 seed)

In a shocking twist, Q1A wins are hard to come by.

I certainly wish we had more Q1A wins. I wish Wojo's teams outperformed more often. But I'm also glad that we at least win the vast majority of games we're "supposed to win," and that we didn't totally suck in our coach's 5th season like, say, Texas has.

[lurch91]

Fantastic work TAMU!!!  Does historical data exist to run the same analysis on previous seasons?

[Jay Bee]

We've played a very tough schedule. Our strength of schedule is #4 in the nation.

One nit. The SOS of #4 you're referring to doesn't measure difficulty or 'toughness' of schedule. It's complete nonsense.

We have had a relatively difficult schedule, but not top 5 by any reasonable measurement.

[WarriorFan]

Win the next 5 and I'm happy.
7 and I'm very happy.
9 or 10 would be great.

[GoldenDieners32]

One nit. The SOS of #4 you're referring to doesn't measure difficulty or 'toughness' of schedule. It's complete nonsense.

We have had a relatively difficult schedule, but not top 5 by any reasonable measurement.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/schedule/Marquette

On here it shows we have the 4th toughest schedule

[IL Warrior]

Here's the thing...

Certain posters like to complain that MU doesn't win "big games".
They define "big games" as games against the teams at the top of the rankings or standings.
If those teams lose (to Marquette or other opponents) they fall from the top of the rankings or standings.
Once they fall from the top of the rankings or standings, those posters no longer consider it a "big game" win.

Put another way, teams don't beat Q1A opponents. Why? Because if a team loses enough games, they aren't a Q1A opponent - someone who lost less games replaces them.

(I am aware that NET, AP poll, Kenpom, etc. do not strictly rely on win-loss)

[NickelDimer]

I posted this in another thread but it's more appropriate here and sums up my thoughts on Wojo's tenure and "big games":

I think this is what people mean when they say we don't win big games. Of course we've won some big games when we've been desperate for a win i.e. at home vs Nova this year. But we don't win pivotal games often enough. The kind of games that allow us to take the next step. @ Nova and vs CU are perfect examples.

[Jay Bee]

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/schedule/Marquette

On here it shows we have the 4th toughest schedule

No, it doesn't. It shows our SOS is #4 in the nation. SOS isn't a measure of toughness or difficulty.

Pretend Marquette and Providence had each played one game this season and it was against Duke.

Marquette traveled to Duke to play them. Providence hosted Duke. The SOS measurement you are referring to you would tell you that Marquette and Providence have an identical "SOS".

That's nonsense.

[MarquetteDano]

No, it doesn't. It shows our SOS is #4 in the nation. SOS isn't a measure of toughness or difficulty.

Pretend Marquette and Providence had each played one game this season and it was against Duke.

Marquette traveled to Duke to play them. Providence hosted Duke. The SOS measurement you are referring to you would tell you that Marquette and Providence have an identical "SOS".

That's nonsense.

I see KenPom has us at #18 for schedule. Does his Adjusted Efficiency consider home/away?

[muwarrior69]

Also out of curiosity, I looked at the team sheets of the teams ahead of us on the bracketmatrix (where we are currently the top 6 seed). Our two Q1A wins are:

Tied with:
Michigan State (projected 5 seed)
Butler (5 seed)
Villanova (4 seed)
Florida State (2 seed)
San Diego State (1 seed)

1 more than:
Colorado (5 seed)
West Virginia (4 seed)
Louisville (3 seed)

2 more than:
Auburn (4 seed)
Dayton (2 seed)

In a shocking twist, Q1A wins are hard to come by.

I'd rather be the top 6th or any 6th seed than a 5 seed.

[PointWarrior]

What was the stat -wojo's record against KenPom top 25 teams.   Something woeful like 1-22?  Prior to this year

[wadesworld]

What was the stat -wojo's record against KenPom top 25 teams.   Something woeful like 1-22?  Prior to this year

It was an incorrect stat.  Last year alone Marquette beat top 25 KenPom teams Wisconsin, Buffalo, Kansas State, and Louisville.

[fjm]

What was the stat -wojo's record against KenPom top 25 teams.   Something woeful like 1-22?  Prior to this year

Making stuff up?

We had like 4 last year alone.

[The Sultan]

It was my stat.  I incorrectly stated that he had two wins against teams that finished the year KenPom "top 25," but it was top 20...and he had three prior to this year.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

What was the stat -wojo's record against KenPom top 25 teams.   Something woeful like 1-22?  Prior to this year

Here are the numbers for KenPom Final top 25...overall I count 5-35 through last year.

15 - 0-12
16 - 0-6
17 - 1-6
18 - 0-10
19 - 4-1

To-date we are 2-5 with Purdue counting (#25) and our butler split not counting (#27)...

5 losses above are BEast tourney or NCAA tourney outs

[Uncle Rico]

I'd rather be the top 6th or any 6th seed than a 5 seed.

Eh, probably not, though it's close

Since 2010, here are how the 5 seeds have fared:

Round of 64: 16
Round of 32: 14
Sweet 16: 6
Elite 8: 1
Final 4: 2
Title Game: 1

Here are how the 6 seeds have fared:

Round of 64: 21
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 5
Elite 8: 2
No Final 4's

[Galway Eagle]

Here are the numbers for Final top 25...overall I count 5-35 through last year.

15 - 0-12
16 - 0-6
17 - 1-6
18 - 0-10
19 - 4-1

To-date we are 2-5 with Purdue counting (#25) and our butler split not counting (#27)...

Did providence not finish top 25 in 16? Damn they must've tanked.

[GoldenDieners32]

Did providence not finish top 25 in 16? Damn they must've tanked.

44th

[muguru]

I posted this in another thread but it's more appropriate here and sums up my thoughts on Wojo's tenure and "big games":

I think this is what people mean when they say we don't win big games. Of course we've won some big games when we've been desperate for a win i.e. at home vs Nova this year. But we don't win pivotal games often enough. The kind of games that allow us to take the next step. @ Nova and vs CU are perfect examples.

BINGfreakingO...You hit the nail on the head right there. Winning games like that are obviously not the ONLY thing, but they do matter in regards to whether or not a program can/will take the next step. This year alone, they lost @ Hall, Creighton, Nova(so the three biggest road games), then lost at home to Creighton. Just can't get it done when it could be a "statement" game so to speak.