MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on February 19, 2020, 09:23:55 PM
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I've been seeing a lot of complaints about not winning big games this season. I went to check our team sheet and after looking it over, I get the complaint.
7 of our 8 losses are Q1A losses (Home 1-15 NET, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40) with the one outlier being the Providence loss (which is a Q2B loss). We do have 2 Q1A wins, but I would argue that they are the two easiest Q1A games on our schedule (H vs. #15 Nova and Away vs #39 Xavier). Both wins are within two spots of the cutoff line for Q1A/Q1B (though if Nova continues to blow out DePaul on the road, they should move up a couple of spots).
We are 3-0 in Q1B games (Butler [H], Georgetown [A] USC [N], and 3-0 in Q2A games (Purdue [H], Xavier [H], Kansas State [A]).
What this tells me is that Wojo beats the teams he "should" and loses to the teams he "should." That can be hella frustrating as a fan because part of the fun of college basketball is the big upsets over top teams. We really haven't gotten that this season. I think this adds to the narrative that Wojo doesn't make the team more than the sum of its parts. That can work, as long as the recruiting continues to raise the talent level of the team but I hope to see some more improvement in this area.
We've played a very tough schedule. Our strength of schedule is #4 in the nation. We don't have any Q1A games remaining in the regular season so our next opportunity for the big win is going to be in the BET or NCAAs. Our remaining games are all Q1Bs except Georgetown which is a Q2A (Seton Hall is also 1 spot away from being Q1A). I would love to see MU continue their undefeated streak in these quadrants and finish the season on a hot streak.
Because of our strength of schedule and the remaining games all being Q2A or better, we are going to make the NCAAs. Barring a 4 or 5 game skid, we are going to be a favored seed in the fist round of the NCAAs. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't extra nervous because of how last season ended but I think the team pulls it together this year and Wojo gets that "can't win in March" monkey off his back.
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Hope your last paragraph is right.
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Does a Q1A win in the NCAA tourney impact our preseason ranking for next year??
If we win the tourney....I don’t care if our win is considered quad 1, 2, or 3.
All bets are off...we are in the tourney.
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Biggest game of the season is the next one.
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Also out of curiosity, I looked at the team sheets of the teams ahead of us on the bracketmatrix (where we are currently the top 6 seed). Our two Q1A wins are:
Tied with:
Michigan State (projected 5 seed)
Butler (5 seed)
Villanova (4 seed)
Florida State (2 seed)
San Diego State (1 seed)
1 more than:
Colorado (5 seed)
West Virginia (4 seed)
Louisville (3 seed)
2 more than:
Auburn (4 seed)
Dayton (2 seed)
In a shocking twist, Q1A wins are hard to come by.
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I've been seeing a lot of complaints about not winning big games this season. I went to check our team sheet and after looking it over, I get the complaint.
7 of our 8 losses are Q1A losses (Home 1-15 NET, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40) with the one outlier being the Providence loss (which is a Q2B loss). We do have 2 Q1A wins, but I would argue that they are the two easiest Q1A games on our schedule (H vs. #15 Nova and Away vs #39 Xavier). Both wins are within two spots of the cutoff line for Q1A/Q1B (though if Nova continues to blow out DePaul on the road, they should move up a couple of spots).
We are 3-0 in Q1B games (Butler [H], Georgetown [A] USC [N], and 3-0 in Q2A games (Purdue [H], Xavier [H], Kansas State [A]).
What this tells me is that Wojo beats the teams he "should" and loses to the teams he "should." That can be hella frustrating as a fan because part of the fun of college basketball is the big upsets over top teams. We really haven't gotten that this season. I think this adds to the narrative that Wojo doesn't make the team more than the sum of its parts. That can work, as long as the recruiting continues to raise the talent level of the team but I hope to see some more improvement in this area.
We've played a very tough schedule. Our strength of schedule is #4 in the nation. We don't have any Q1A games remaining in the regular season so our next opportunity for the big win is going to be in the BET or NCAAs. Our remaining games are all Q1Bs except Georgetown which is a Q2A (Seton Hall is also 1 spot away from being Q1A). I would love to see MU continue their undefeated streak in these quadrants and finish the season on a hot streak.
Because of our strength of schedule and the remaining games all being Q2A or better, we are going to make the NCAAs. Barring a 4 or 5 game skid, we are going to be a favored seed in the fist round of the NCAAs. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't extra nervous because of how last season ended but I think the team pulls it together this year and Wojo gets that "can't win in March" monkey off his back.
Finally! Someone acknowledges this! Thanks TAMU...you said it perfectly..They do about what you would expect them to, and no more. And I bet if you look back over Wojo's tenure, you will find similar results.
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Finally! Someone acknowledges this! Thanks TAMU...you said it perfectly..They do about what you would expect them to, and no more. And I bet if you look back over Wojo's tenure, you will find similar results.
Obviously, we have won some games we "shouldn't have" the last few years, but certainly not many.
If you saw TAMU's following post, you realize that few teams do.
Also out of curiosity, I looked at the team sheets of the teams ahead of us on the bracketmatrix (where we are currently the top 6 seed). Our two Q1A wins are:
Tied with:
Michigan State (projected 5 seed)
Butler (5 seed)
Villanova (4 seed)
Florida State (2 seed)
San Diego State (1 seed)
1 more than:
Colorado (5 seed)
West Virginia (4 seed)
Louisville (3 seed)
2 more than:
Auburn (4 seed)
Dayton (2 seed)
In a shocking twist, Q1A wins are hard to come by.
I certainly wish we had more Q1A wins. I wish Wojo's teams outperformed more often. But I'm also glad that we at least win the vast majority of games we're "supposed to win," and that we didn't totally suck in our coach's 5th season like, say, Texas has.
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Fantastic work TAMU!!! Does historical data exist to run the same analysis on previous seasons?
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We've played a very tough schedule. Our strength of schedule is #4 in the nation.
One nit. The SOS of #4 you're referring to doesn't measure difficulty or 'toughness' of schedule. It's complete nonsense.
We have had a relatively difficult schedule, but not top 5 by any reasonable measurement.
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Win the next 5 and I'm happy.
7 and I'm very happy.
9 or 10 would be great.
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One nit. The SOS of #4 you're referring to doesn't measure difficulty or 'toughness' of schedule. It's complete nonsense.
We have had a relatively difficult schedule, but not top 5 by any reasonable measurement.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/schedule/Marquette
On here it shows we have the 4th toughest schedule
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Here's the thing...
Certain posters like to complain that MU doesn't win "big games".
They define "big games" as games against the teams at the top of the rankings or standings.
If those teams lose (to Marquette or other opponents) they fall from the top of the rankings or standings.
Once they fall from the top of the rankings or standings, those posters no longer consider it a "big game" win.
Put another way, teams don't beat Q1A opponents. Why? Because if a team loses enough games, they aren't a Q1A opponent - someone who lost less games replaces them.
(I am aware that NET, AP poll, Kenpom, etc. do not strictly rely on win-loss)
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I posted this in another thread but it’s more appropriate here and sums up my thoughts on Wojo’s tenure and “big games”:
I think this is what people mean when they say we don’t win big games. Of course we’ve won some big games when we’ve been desperate for a win i.e. at home vs Nova this year. But we don’t win pivotal games often enough. The kind of games that allow us to take the next step. @ Nova and vs CU are perfect examples.
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http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/schedule/Marquette
On here it shows we have the 4th toughest schedule
No, it doesn’t. It shows our SOS is #4 in the nation. SOS isn’t a measure of toughness or difficulty.
Pretend Marquette and Providence had each played one game this season and it was against Duke.
Marquette traveled to Duke to play them. Providence hosted Duke. The SOS measurement you are referring to you would tell you that Marquette and Providence have an identical “SOS”.
That’s nonsense.
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No, it doesn’t. It shows our SOS is #4 in the nation. SOS isn’t a measure of toughness or difficulty.
Pretend Marquette and Providence had each played one game this season and it was against Duke.
Marquette traveled to Duke to play them. Providence hosted Duke. The SOS measurement you are referring to you would tell you that Marquette and Providence have an identical “SOS”.
That’s nonsense.
I see KenPom has us at #18 for schedule. Does his Adjusted Efficiency consider home/away?
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Also out of curiosity, I looked at the team sheets of the teams ahead of us on the bracketmatrix (where we are currently the top 6 seed). Our two Q1A wins are:
Tied with:
Michigan State (projected 5 seed)
Butler (5 seed)
Villanova (4 seed)
Florida State (2 seed)
San Diego State (1 seed)
1 more than:
Colorado (5 seed)
West Virginia (4 seed)
Louisville (3 seed)
2 more than:
Auburn (4 seed)
Dayton (2 seed)
In a shocking twist, Q1A wins are hard to come by.
I'd rather be the top 6th or any 6th seed than a 5 seed.
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What was the stat -wojo’s record against KenPom top 25 teams. Something woeful like 1-22? Prior to this year
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What was the stat -wojo’s record against KenPom top 25 teams. Something woeful like 1-22? Prior to this year
It was an incorrect stat. Last year alone Marquette beat top 25 KenPom teams Wisconsin, Buffalo, Kansas State, and Louisville.
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What was the stat -wojo’s record against KenPom top 25 teams. Something woeful like 1-22? Prior to this year
Making stuff up?
We had like 4 last year alone.
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It was my stat. I incorrectly stated that he had two wins against teams that finished the year KenPom "top 25," but it was top 20...and he had three prior to this year.
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What was the stat -wojo’s record against KenPom top 25 teams. Something woeful like 1-22? Prior to this year
Here are the numbers for KenPom Final top 25...overall I count 5-35 through last year.
15 - 0-12
16 - 0-6
17 - 1-6
18 - 0-10
19 - 4-1
To-date we are 2-5 with Purdue counting (#25) and our butler split not counting (#27)...
5 losses above are BEast tourney or NCAA tourney outs
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I'd rather be the top 6th or any 6th seed than a 5 seed.
Eh, probably not, though it’s close
Since 2010, here are how the 5 seeds have fared:
Round of 64: 16
Round of 32: 14
Sweet 16: 6
Elite 8: 1
Final 4: 2
Title Game: 1
Here are how the 6 seeds have fared:
Round of 64: 21
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 5
Elite 8: 2
No Final 4’s
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Here are the numbers for Final top 25...overall I count 5-35 through last year.
15 - 0-12
16 - 0-6
17 - 1-6
18 - 0-10
19 - 4-1
To-date we are 2-5 with Purdue counting (#25) and our butler split not counting (#27)...
Did providence not finish top 25 in 16? Damn they must've tanked.
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Did providence not finish top 25 in 16? Damn they must've tanked.
44th
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I posted this in another thread but it’s more appropriate here and sums up my thoughts on Wojo’s tenure and “big games”:
I think this is what people mean when they say we don’t win big games. Of course we’ve won some big games when we’ve been desperate for a win i.e. at home vs Nova this year. But we don’t win pivotal games often enough. The kind of games that allow us to take the next step. @ Nova and vs CU are perfect examples.
BINGfreakingO...You hit the nail on the head right there. Winning games like that are obviously not the ONLY thing, but they do matter in regards to whether or not a program can/will take the next step. This year alone, they lost @ Hall, Creighton, Nova(so the three biggest road games), then lost at home to Creighton. Just can't get it done when it could be a "statement" game so to speak.
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Finally! Someone acknowledges this! Thanks TAMU...you said it perfectly..They do about what you would expect them to, and no more. And I bet if you look back over Wojo's tenure, you will find similar results.
There is definitely something to be said for not losing to lessor teams. Don't underrate it.
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Here are the numbers for KenPom Final top 25...overall I count 5-35 through last year.
15 - 0-12
16 - 0-6
17 - 1-6
18 - 0-10
19 - 4-1
To-date we are 2-5 with Purdue counting (#25) and our butler split not counting (#27)...
Wow. Didn't think it was this bad. So, to present with this year added into the above, we are 6-40 against legitimate caliber Top 25 teams.
And we are 6-22 during Markus's time here. He'll be a two time All-American. But...the "trajectory" is good. So. There's that.
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Wow. Didn't think it was this bad. So, to present with this year added into the above, we are 6-40 against legitimate caliber Top 25 teams.
And we are 6-22 during Markus's time here. He'll be a two time All-American. But...the "trajectory" is good. So. There's that.
I don't know what the records are but shouldn't you wait to see Crean and Buzz's before making judgements?
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Crean (starting 2002) -- first year available
02 - 3-2 (both losses to #2 Cincy)
03 - 5-3 (losses to 10, 18 and 2 - beat #1 in the best game i have personally witnessed)
04 - 2-3
05 - 1-4
06 - 4-4
07 - 5-6
08 - 5-8
25-30
Note six were outs in the conference tourney or NCAA tourney
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I don't know what the records are but shouldn't you wait to see Crean and Buzz's before making judgements?
Well, you should go ahead and do the research and post it here. Though I suspect you already have. Then, if you would, post the records of Crean, Buzz and Wojo in the NCAA tournament.
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Buzz
09 - 2-7
10 - 3-6
11 - 6-9
12 - 3-5
13 - 6-4 (actually lost to 1 & 2 that year)
14 - 0-7
20-31
Note 8 of the top-25 losses were outs in the BEast tourney or NCAA tourney
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Wow. Didn't think it was this bad. So, to present with this year added into the above, we are 6-40 against legitimate caliber Top 25 teams.
And we are 6-22 during Markus's time here. He'll be a two time All-American. But...the "trajectory" is good. So. There's that.
2-5 this year, so 8-31. Not much better.
However, 6-6 the past two years is totally fine. Need to maintain where we are now. Can't regress back to the year 1-4 performance.
6-6 after a 2-25 start. That in itself is a good trajectory. Though I'll concede there was really nowhere to go but up from 2-25.
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There is definitely something to be said for not losing to lessor teams. Don't underrate it.
Well that's just it...They always also have at least one or two "how the F did they lose to them" games every year as well. As much as there is something to be said for MOSTLY not losing to teams you should beat..it's also not good when that's all you typically do. I mean, is that the definition pretty much of average?? Doing what you are supposed to do, almost never more than that. This is why I have said this program is spinning it's wheels. Almost every time they have a chance to rise up, get some major traction going on the national level consistently...they didn't answer the bell. And it hasn't been just this year either.
I mean it gets beaten to death here, but the slide at the end of the year last year when they had to win ONE game to be BE champions...ONE. Something that could have potentially changed the trajectory of the program. And no matter what the reasons were for the slide..you should have been able to at least back into one win down the stretch..Georgetown at home last year is a good example of losing to someone they had no business losing to(regardless of circumstances).
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2-5 this year, so 8-31. Not much better.
However, 6-6 the past two years is totally fine. Need to maintain where we are now. Can't regress back to the year 1-4 performance.
6-6 after a 2-25 start. That in itself is a good trajectory. Though I'll concede there was really nowhere to go but up from 2-25.
Think your calculations may be wrong (mine were too). During the last three years, plus this year (Markus's last), we are 7-23 against Top 25.
And sure, you can say we are 6-6 these last two years, yet 4-1 to present 2-5 this year, doesn't trend well. Additionally, I suspect we take a step back next year with Markus gone too.
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Well, you should go ahead and do the research and post it here. Though I suspect you already have. Then, if you would, post the records of Crean, Buzz and Wojo in the NCAA tournament.
You would be wrong as I don't have a Kenpom subscription hence the "I don't know" portion of my statement. How arrogant can you be?
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Think your calculations may be wrong (mine were too). During the last three years, plus this year (Markus's last), we are 7-23 against Top 25.
And sure, you can say we are 6-6 these last two years, yet 4-1 to present 2-5 this year, doesn't trend well. Additionally, I suspect we take a step back next year with Markus gone too.
It's possible. I'll double check later, but was just using the numbers in the above post.
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You would be wrong as I don't have a Kenpom subscription hence the "I don't know" portion of my statement. How arrogant can you be?
You don’t need a subscription. Google Pomeroy final rankings and you can get any year.
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One nit. The SOS of #4 you're referring to doesn't measure difficulty or 'toughness' of schedule. It's complete nonsense.
We have had a relatively difficult schedule, but not top 5 by any reasonable measurement.
You are correct, I phrased that poorly.
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You would be wrong as I don't have a Kenpom subscription hence the "I don't know" portion of my statement. How arrogant can you be?
Not very. I'm sorry if I offended you. I assumed you had done the research - which ultimately shows the pretty stark contrast in "big games" between Wojo and our last two coaches.
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Not very. I'm sorry if I offended you. I assumed you had done the research - which ultimately shows the pretty stark contrast in "big games" between Wojo and our last two coaches.
To be fair, we just haven’t been as good. Unless you believe heavily in the future, wojo will not win any analytical analysis. The past results are not his friend.
I was actually surprised how well crean did. He performed quite well despite some tough years in there post FF and starting out in CUSA. Made me think more highly of his tenure.
Conversely 15 of Buzz’s losses were final outs or the stinker year. Wow if you take those out.
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8-31 against top 25 kenpom teams. Enough said, not even sure that qualifies for mediocrity status.
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8-31 against top 25 kenpom teams. Enough said, not even sure that qualifies for mediocrity status.
what does it qualify for?
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8-31 against top 25 kenpom teams. Enough said, not even sure that qualifies for mediocrity status.
Yes, but 18 of those losses and 0 of the wins came in the first two years. I'm not hear to rehash the great empty cupboard debate, just pointing out that when I evaluate an employee, I tend to focus more on the work in recent years then when the employee was first starting out. Personally, I have yet to fire someone for something s/he did 5+ years ago that was public knowledge.
No one is going to win a debate saying that Wojo had a better first 5 years than either Crean or Buzz. Anyone who tries is not a smart person. What matters though is where you think the current coach is going. 7-22 in the last 4 years, still not great. 6-6 in the last 2? I can get behind that. 2-5 this year? Not good but not fireable either. We'll see if the past two seasons are blips, the high water mark for Wojo's career, or just the next step in his development.
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TAMU
I think your post in fair in judgement for the most part. My only issue is that at some point we need to know the high water point. It keeps getting kicked down the can. When is enough time for you to judge if he hit the high water mark or not? It appears that next year will be another step backwards and then hoping the following year is an improvement. I have said all along I have no problem with things taking time if the end game looks much better than the previous six years.
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TAMU
I think your post in fair in judgement for the most part. My only issue is that at some point we need to know the high water point. It keeps getting kicked down the can. When is enough time for you to judge if he hit the high water mark or not? It appears that next year will be another step backwards and then hoping the following year is an improvement. I have said all along I have no problem with things taking time if the end game looks much better than the previous six years.
I mean, we will never "know" the high water point. There are coaches whose careers start off terribly and end up being HOFers (Majerus) and coaches whose careers start with a bang who end up being busts (Ollie). You make decisions based on what you think is best for the program moving forward. Personally, I think the likelihood of Wojo being a success long term is greater than the likelihood of hiring the right replacement and them being successful. Maybe the end of this season will change my opinion on that, but I don't think so.
You are right that next season will most likely be a step backwards. I think anyone expecting improvement after graduating a NPOY candidate, arguably our second best player, and a key reserve is likely to be disappointed. It'll be the first year of Wojo's third recruiting cycle so in order to improve, he needs to do better than his NIT 2 seed from 2018. If he makes the tournament, I think he ends up being safe for another three years as I would only expect the 2020 class to improve and continue to make the tournament. If he misses the tournament, that may be the year the Nojos get their wish.
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8-31 against top 25 kenpom teams. Enough said, not even sure that qualifies for mediocrity status.
If it's such a mediocre program why dont you just make a like a tree and leaf for another team
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MU's Record by Current Seeds on Bracket Matrix:
2 Seed: 0-1 (vs. Maryland)
3 Seed: 1-4 (Creighton x2, Nova x2, @Hall)
6 Seed: 1-1 (Butler x2)
7 Seed: 0-1 (@Bucky)
10 Seed: 2-0 (Xavier x2)
11 Seed: 1-2 (USC, Providence x2)
Next 4 Out: 3-0 (Purdue, Georgetown x2)
Everyone Else: 10-0
Wins the games he should (-Provence at home), loses the games he should (- maybe Nova or @X). Definitely get the big game frustration. If this pattern holds, should win the opening game of NCAA this season but will need to put together a previously unseen performance to get to the Sweet 16.