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Author Topic: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites  (Read 2967 times)

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #25 on: February 18, 2020, 11:54:32 AM »
FEBRUARY 17, 2020

Summary
Pretty uneventful today... Butler and Michigan State had to be flip-flopped on the s-curve to avoid conference re-matches, which only added 250 miles of driving between them.

BYU again ended up opposite of Gonzaga on the 1-32 curve, and that ain’t happening.  Fortunately, there's a convenient option in dropping them from the top 8-seed to the last 8-seed occupied by Rutgers, thereby putting BYU in St. Louis and Houston.  However, the question then becomes whether the committee would simply flip-flop BYU with Rutgers, or would they roll over UW-Madison, Illinois and Rutgers one spot each?  Consider the following:

    "Flip-Flop": Instead of going to St. Louis and being on a collision course with #1 overall, Rutgers now has to go cross-country to play Gonzaga in their own backyard.  BYU adds about 400 miles to their distance, but Rutgers adds 1,800 and, oh yeah, gets to play Gonzaga in their own backyard.

    "Roll Over": BYU drops from #29 on the s-curve to #32, and UW-Madsion moves up from #30 to #29, Illinois from #31 to #30 and Rutgers from #32 to #31.  Looking at each of these new matchups individually: first, UW-Madison goes to Spokane, to… hehe… play Gonzaga [muffled laugh]… in their backyard [burst of uncontrollable laughter].  You know what, forget Illinois and Rutgers, this is clearly the best choice. 

But seriously, with the Roll Over, Spokane is a slight upgrade, distance-wise, for UW-Madison; Illinois gets screwed out of Omaha, but at least they now have more of neutral court with SDSU in Sacramento (instead of Kansas in Omaha), and Rutgers is now going a few more miles to Omaha instead of facing overall #1 in St. Louis.  Bottom line is that we could argue these scenarios all day long, but all four #4 seeds are to be protected, and considering Wisconsin, Illinois and Rutgers collectively, the Roll Over scenario most complies with that guideline (without violating any other guidelines).  So that’s what I’m going with.

What Matters Most
Same as last Friday's edition: as a 6-seed, Marquette gets the benefit of WVU's preference in Cleveland and heads to NYC for it's second quarterfinal win at the Garden in two weeks. 

[Benny's opinion has already been clearly established that the 6-seed is the fourth best seed in the tournament (in order: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 14) because those are the seed lines furthest away from playing a #1 or #2 seed, which by postponing, it maximizes the chance for someone to knock out those seed(s) before you even get to them.  So Benny's loving this.]

Other Notables
Bump'd:No changes in the top 12 teams.  Penn State moving up a couple spots sent Nova from NY to Omaha.

Short 100 AAL, UAL and LUV: All of the #1-#3 seeds were naturally placed at their closest 1st Round site.  And if that wasn’t enough, all of the #1-#3 seeds (plus Oregon) were ALSO placed at their closest regional site.  (Favorable first-round placement is typically reserved for the #1 and #2 seeds, with the #3’s often being sprinkled in for good measure; however, the more geographic distribution you get on the s-curve from 1-16, the closer everyone gets to stay to home that first weekend.)

Tug-o-War:From 2/14 to 2/17, Oregon and Kentucky traded spots on the S-Curve (16 & 17)... which caused both of them to go from Omaha to Sacramento.  This could certainly get interesting...

On the Road Again: Only three 2,000+ mile road trips, and Nova and Creighton are the only two protected seeds placed more than 725 miles from campus.

#1 is the Loneliest Number: Gosh, Baylor… you really picked a good year to be good.  Even as the potential overall #1 seed, their distance to the closest 1st Round site is more than three times the average distance for the other #1-#3 seeds.

No Thanks, I'll Walk: Excluding Seton Hall, the average sum amongst the protected seeds of each team's respective 1st Rd and Regional site is 1,113 miles.  Seton's Hall sum: 170 (151 miles to Albany, 19 miles to MSG).

Bun Bun the Middle One: The largest sum of 1st Rd and Regional sites: Creighton at 2,929 (so much for being central to everything).

Where Can I See Dozens of Broken-Down Cavaliers Along the Highway the week of March 16th?: I-71. 

Where Can I See Dozens of Broken-Down Cavaliers Along the Highway the following week?: Still on I-71.  They would otherwise be on I-70 between Richmond and Greenfield, IN the following week, but there's an extreme shortage of junkyard parts available in and around Ohio these days.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Cheeks

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #26 on: February 18, 2020, 12:16:15 PM »
Thanks TAMU and Benny. What you say makes sense.

You are welcome Mike
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #27 on: February 18, 2020, 12:25:35 PM »
Thanks TAMU and Benny. What you say makes sense.

You are welcome Mike

Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #28 on: February 18, 2020, 12:49:06 PM »
Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?

Maybe he's a mix of both of us... kind of like how Carbon and Oxygen - otherwise two of the most important elements to life on Earth - can combine into something that will literally suffocate you.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

MU82

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #29 on: February 18, 2020, 01:47:38 PM »
Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?

He is weirdly obsessed with me.

I have not communicated with hoopaloop in a Scoop thread since Dec. 23, and have not discussed anything with him even by PM for 6 weeks now, but he keeps trying to draw me back in with his lies and insanity.

Interestingly, he has proven he doesn't need discourse with any one particular Scooper to keep ruining thread after thread. It's hoopaloopin' at its finest, his special talent.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

Cheeks

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #30 on: February 18, 2020, 02:17:33 PM »
Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?

I think you know the why...
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Cheeks

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #31 on: February 18, 2020, 02:20:06 PM »
He is weirdly obsessed with me.

I have not communicated with hoopaloop in a Scoop thread since Dec. 23, and have not discussed anything with him even by PM for 6 weeks now, but he keeps trying to draw me back in with his lies and insanity.

Interestingly, he has proven he doesn't need discourse with any one particular Scooper to keep ruining thread after thread. It's hoopaloopin' at its finest, his special talent.

LOL.  I have never been more permanently in someone’s head then yours.  I think the non direct answers acknowledging what I said but passive aggressively showing how you aren’t paying attention are my favorites....like this current one I am responding to.

Those 18 emails you sent me over 2 weeks....thank God you aren’t communicating any longer....should have put out a restraining order on you.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

brewcity77

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #32 on: February 19, 2020, 08:26:21 AM »
BYU again ended up opposite of Gonzaga on the 1-32 curve, and that ain’t happening.  Fortunately, there's a convenient option in dropping them from the top 8-seed to the last 8-seed occupied by Rutgers, thereby putting BYU in St. Louis and Houston.  However, the question then becomes whether the committee would simply flip-flop BYU with Rutgers, or would they roll over UW-Madison, Illinois and Rutgers one spot each?

I think St Louis and Indianapolis is the only option for BYU. They can't play in Houston due to the Sunday game. Kansas, if they maintain a 1-seed, seems locked into one of the SLU spots and the likely top seed in the Midwest. If not there, how far might they flex BYU to put them into Indianapolis, because that's their obit viable regional.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #33 on: February 19, 2020, 10:34:59 AM »
I think St Louis and Indianapolis is the only option for BYU. They can't play in Houston due to the Sunday game. Kansas, if they maintain a 1-seed, seems locked into one of the SLU spots and the likely top seed in the Midwest. If not there, how far might they flex BYU to put them into Indianapolis, because that's their obit viable regional.

You're right... I mistakenly had Indy and NYC as the Sunday regionals (it is NY and Houston).  As soon as I correct my spreadsheet, I'll go back and see what changes would be necessary, but generally, the #1-#6 seeds should be unaffected.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2020, 04:01:23 PM »
(Previous dates archived in later posts)

FEBRUARY 18, 2020

Summary
BYU hasn't been that difficult to shift around so far; however, today is the first day where it actually made more sense to move them up the s-curve instead of down.  Even though they jumped three spots, they really only jumped two; originally, Michigan was matched up with Maryland in Round 2, and even though this rule might get relaxed with the Big? (potentially) having 10-11 teams in the tournament, I'm abiding for purposes of this exercise.  In other words, before the Chik-Fil-A rule was applied, BYU and Michigan had already swapped, and BYU was then swapped with LSU for Tampa/Houston placement.  I had considered shifting LSU and Houston down a spot, but LSU in Greensboro and Houston in Cleveland is marginally more favorable than the other way around (Michigan, incidentally, stayed in Greensboro but simply swapped pods).

Rutgers and Illinois originally occupied #31 and #32 on the s-curve.  So why did I flip those two around?  Despite Champaign being a couple hours from St. Louis, it stands to reason that there are a lot of U o fI alums in/around St. Louis, and whether this rises to a level of "home-court" advantage, I believe the committee would give an extra amount of deference to the #1 overall, thus moving Illinois elsewhere.


What Matters Most
Despite not moving on the s-curve for the third straight day, Marquette is now heading to sunny Tampa.  Penn State's move up the S-Curve dropped Auburn to #12 (which was formerly occupied by West Virginia), which is opposite Marquette's #21 spot.

Other Notables
Get These Guys a Gulfstream: Creighton's sum of driving distances for the first two weekends eclipsed 3,000 today.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2020, 01:03:23 PM »
FEBRUARY 21, 2020
Data only.  No observations.


FEBRUARY 20, 2020

Yesterday got away from me, so don't worry... there is no data for the 19th.

Summary
BYU hasn't really tested my patience yet, but today they pushed a little bit more.  Originally, they were the last 7-seed (#28), and there were no 8-seeds with a Chik-Fil-A opening, so I moved them to the last 6-seed and bumped OSU, LSU, Michigan and Houston down one spot each.  Overall, the collective mileage is slightly less than it was originally, but while OSU's travel increased the most, they're now going to sunny Tampa instead of St. Louis.

What Matters Most
Even with the loss to Creighton fully factored in, MU hasn't moved off #21 on the s-curve.  Nevertheless, today they're slotted back into Cleveland opposite Penn State. 

Benny highly recommends the Metropolitan at the 9 in Downtown Cleveland... it is technically a Marriott property and just a couple blocks' walk from Quicken Loans Arena in the heart of downtown.  In fact, the upper floors are condos, and many professional athletes also make their home there during the season; who knows, you might even see someone from the Browns throwing his girlfriend around an elevator lobby during your stay.

Other Notables
Don't Burn the Couch While I'm Gone: We have a new leader in the road warrior category... Should West Virginia advance past Tampa, they'll be on their way to LA.  Not to worry however as it's only a little longer than their average conference road trip.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

BM1090

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #36 on: March 02, 2020, 03:38:41 PM »
Will be in LA and going to the West Regional. Hoping MU gets placed out west so I have 4-6 days of false hope.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #37 on: March 03, 2020, 12:53:51 PM »
Updated for March 3rd.  Things are shaking out...
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2020, 12:39:30 PM »
ARCHIVED

MARCH 3, 2020

It occurs to me that I've been doing the placements out of order... I've been going "pods first, regionals next" instead of the other way around.  As far as the trend chart goes, it's still 95% accurate... pods are mostly selected independent of regionals; the only exception is that BYU's pod is dependent on the regional.  So BYU's placement (and anyone with whom they were swapped) may bit a bit off prior to today, but generally speaking, everything else is substantially accurate.

Although MU still appears in 108/108 brackets, they have fallen to the last 7-seed on the S-Curve... fortunately, they have decent pod placement (Cleveland); however, this means a 2nd rd. match up with Dayton, who is currently the top 2-seed.  Neverthless, as bad as that is, if MU falls any further, the odds of having to face Gonzaga - in Spokane - in the 2nd rd. increase drastically (especially because one of the 8-seeds is St. Mary's, who can't be matched up with Gonzaga in the 2nd rd.)

Otherwise, I feel pretty confident about today's placement... there is nearly perfect balance in the regionals, long-distance trips are minimal, everyone is placed on their natural seed-line, and other than having to move BYU up two spots on the S-Curve (swapped with OSU), there were no adjustments to the S-Curve.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.