MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Benny B on February 14, 2020, 01:47:19 PM
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MARCH 6, 2020
This whole thread started for one reason: Spokane. Well, actually two reasons: Gonzaga and Spokane.
Aside from the fact that it's the only first round site to which you cannot fly direct from ORD (at least not on AAL), you might end up playing Gonzaga in their own backyard. Think back to the Ja Show in Hartford, more specifically how the entire arena (save for a couple hundred MU faithful) erupted every time MU gave up a shot... now multiply that by 100 and you get the picture.
Now, I'm not that guy who turns around and starts barking at the other fans and reveling in another's misery, so the chance of knocking off a #1 in their own backyard doesn't do it for me. In other words, the upside that can only be appreciated by the true disciples of schaden fraude isn't anywhere close to justifying the potential downside of traveling 8 hours to Bumbleflock, USA just to get pummeled in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday (if MU even makes it that far). Oh yeah, there's that virus thing up there, too. Spec-freakin-tacular.
So, if you haven't already guessed where MU is slotted by today's s-curve, just look up. To make matters worse... if you look at the other 8-seeds, MU to Spokane is still the most favorable matchup distance-wise. In other words, the shortest collective distance among MU, Virginia and LSU (remember, St. Mary's can't play in Gonzaga's pod) has MU going to Spokane, regardless. So if these are your 8-seeds on Selection Sunday, my fear is that MU will slide right into Spokane, regardless, as the committee strives to minimize driving distances.
Bottom line... MU needs to get off the 8 line. At this point, it's hard to see them falling below a 9-seed, but hell, if I was the coach, I might consider sandbagging the next two in the hopes of dropping to the 10 or 11 line, even at the risk of going straight to a #1 seed (in the NIT).
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March 6 Trend
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[Moved title post]
So what is this?
I'm sure many of us have noticed by now that Spokane is a 1st round site this year, right? But did anyone notice that the host is the University of Idaho and the venue is Veterans Memorial Arena, a place where the Zags have played only once since 2012.
From the fan's perspective, if your team is anywhere near the #7-#10 seed lines, you could be matched in a pod with Gonzaga in either the 1st or 2nd round. Now in most years, no big deal... Gonzaga is usually considered the weakest X-seed of the X-seeds; however, in light of the previous paragraph and barring an epic collapse to their season:
1) The Zags are going to be playing home games on the 19th and 21st.
2) Spokane is probably the worst 1st round site as far as travel options go (access, availability and price) for 95% of the country.
3) Tickets on the secondary market will be scarce.
So with this in mind - and since everyone and their mother already has a full-blown bracketology prognostication - I decided to skip the first and last parts of the selection process and simply handicap potential tourney sites for the #1-#8 seeds, using the Bracket Matrix's consensus s-curve as the basis and then placing teams in the bracket according to the Selection Committee's top three guidelines: 1) driving distance, 2) conference opponents (both rematches and separating top three into different regionals), and 3) no BYU on Sundays (a/k/a the Chik-Fil-A rule). Actually, it's more like two guidelines, a rule and another rule... I'm also keeping Creighton out of Omaha and Houston out of Houston because, unlike Gonzaga, they are the hosts (I don't think we have to worry about the Johnnies, IUPUI or Pepperdine, but sure, them too).
That being said, THIS IS NOT BRACKETOLOGY (hence, its own thread). The experiment here is primarily to see if a pattern emerges over the remaining weeks of the season (and to check the results against the actual bracket when announced) and secondarily, should patterns emerge, I can also start handicapping potential team hotels (because if I keep making two dozen hotel reservations and canceling 23 of them every March, eventually Marriott is going to get wise to me.(See... the whole thread is self-serving!)
Finally, this is not an exact science... there are several flaws in my methodology, namely the following:
1) I am only using three four of the committee's six or seven guidelines/rules for placement.
2) It is possible that a #9-#16 seed could affect the placement of a #1-4 seed.
3) I am using a consensus s-curve, i.e. one that has not been "scrubbed" by the committee (after the s-curve is drafted, the committee reviews it again and may fine-tune anything that may not pass the "eye-test" before they move to bracketing/placement).
4) The three four guidelines/rules I'm using are not entirely objective... sometimes there's more than one applicable guideline/rule and choosing which to enforce (or which order to enforce) will be a judgement call (e.g. if BYU naturally falls into a pod at a Sunday site, with whom do they swap, do you swap up or down, do you move their opponents instead, etc.)
5) Another one that I thought of as I was editing the daily post below but now I've forgotten.
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Nowhere is a destination from Spokane.
Terrible location for the Tournament
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But if we go to Spokane, the good news is ...
... wait, there is no good news to that scenario.
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Nowhere is a destination from Spokane.
Terrible location for the Tournament
As we say in New England, "You can't there from here."
More likely, "You can't get there from anywhere."
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Pushing really hard for Tampa for our beloved Warriors.
Short drive from the Treasure Coast, easy back and forth and as long as we don't see the Seminoles, OK
Being selfish here.. LOL
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BYU is going to be almost impossible to place at this rate. They can't play in the South or East because they can't play on Sundays. They likely can't play in the West because Gonzaga will be there and the Selection Committee won't put what will be 67% of the WCC entrants (or possibly 100%) in the same region. That leaves just the Midwest.
In the first round, they can't play in Greensboro, Omaha, Sacramento, or Cleveland because all have Sunday games. Spokane seems unlikely as it will be Gonzaga as one protected seed and likely the last 4-seed as the other; BYU is unlikely to be on the 5, 12, or 13 lines. So that leaves a Midwest site in Albany, St. Louis, or Tampa. Their seed will make it very interesting. Don't be surprised to see BYU as one of the rare teams moved up or down 2 seed lines to accommodate their schedule difficulties.
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Thanks for taking in depth shot at this. Boy can we get a 3 seed? Even the 4s appear geographically dicey. Of course the dream scenario is St. Louis to Indy.
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BYU is going to be almost impossible to place at this rate. They can't play in the South or East because they can't play on Sundays. They likely can't play in the West because Gonzaga will be there and the Selection Committee won't put what will be 67% of the WCC entrants (or possibly 100%) in the same region. That leaves just the Midwest.
In the first round, they can't play in Greensboro, Omaha, Sacramento, or Cleveland because all have Sunday games. Spokane seems unlikely as it will be Gonzaga as one protected seed and likely the last 4-seed as the other; BYU is unlikely to be on the 5, 12, or 13 lines. So that leaves a Midwest site in Albany, St. Louis, or Tampa. Their seed will make it very interesting. Don't be surprised to see BYU as one of the rare teams moved up or down 2 seed lines to accommodate their schedule difficulties.
Silly question ...
Let's say BYU gets put in Albany and advances to Saturday, when they're slotted for the late game. Game starts at 9:55 p.m. NCAA games take longer anyway, and it's a close game. At the stroke of midnight, there is 3:41 to play in a 65-65 game. Does the game go on even though it's technically Sunday and BYU can't play on Sundays? Or does the NCAA avoid even the possibility of this happening by non letting BYU get assigned the late Sat slot?
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I remember the Utah Jazz playing after sundown on a Sunday in the NBA playoffs. I believe the sabbath is sun up til sun down. Not 100% on this, but I believe in your scenario it’s “not Sunday yet”, even though it’s 12:01 on Sunday am.
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As we say in New England, "You can't there from here."
More likely, "You can't get there from anywhere."
Non stop flights from Los Angeles daily.
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Silly question ...
Let's say BYU gets put in Albany and advances to Saturday, when they're slotted for the late game. Game starts at 9:55 p.m. NCAA games take longer anyway, and it's a close game. At the stroke of midnight, there is 3:41 to play in a 65-65 game. Does the game go on even though it's technically Sunday and BYU can't play on Sundays? Or does the NCAA avoid even the possibility of this happening by non letting BYU get assigned the late Sat slot?
I think We R Final Four is probably right, but the Sunday predicament could've happened in 2003. The realized it after the bracket reveal and their new plan was that if BYU made the Sweet 16, they would swap them into the Midwest (which would've been the Wisconsin spot against Kentucky, before we played UK).
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/ncaatourney03/story?id=1524804
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Archiving
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FEBRUARY 14, 2020
Summary
With exception of BYU falling into a Sunday pod & regional (and the next closest non-Sunday pod being Gonzaga in Spokane), this was a pretty easy placement. Nobody moved up or down more than one seed, Ohio State was originally slated for St. Louis (so ending up in Greensboro is comparable), and Sacramento is much closer for Texas Tech than Greensboro... so it was a pretty easy justification all around.
What Matters Most
As a 6-seed, Marquette gets the benefit of WVU's preference in Cleveland and heads to NYC for it's second quarterfinal win at the Garden in two weeks. I'll take that all day.
Other Notables
The House Divided: Together Again: Michigan (vs. Gonzaga) and MSU (vs. Butler) both in Spokane (although separate pods)
On the Road Again: Aside from the Michi-Twins in Spokane, the only other 2,000+ mile road trips belong to Penn State and Arizona.
Survival of the Fattest: OSU vs. Duke in Greensboro, Illinois vs. Dayton in Cleveland, Iowa vs. FSU in Tampa, UW-Ma vs. Kansas in Omaha, and Rutgers vs. Baylor in St. Louis... Penn State & Maryland might be the only ones reppin' the Big ? in the Sweet 16.
I'll Scratch Your Back: Nova and Seton Hall are the only two conference mates with top billing in their respective pods sharing the same 1st round site. Saturday afternoon should be rockin' in Albany.
Racking up the Miles: Butler's potential reward for surviving a weekend in Spokane... a trip to LA the following weekend.
A Weekend Cruise: Of the #1-4 seeds, eleven are within a 6-hour drive of their 1st round site.
Wacky Races: Despite being 225 miles further away, Baylor's fans can drive to their 1st round site (St. Louis) faster than San Diego State's (Sacramento).
Where Can I See Dozens of Broken-Down Cavaliers Along the Highway This Week?: On I-71 starting just north of Columbus and continuing up to Mansfield. Although you may see an outlier closer to Strongsville (hahaha, you almost made it, Flyer42!!!).
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Silly question ...
Let's say BYU gets put in Albany and advances to Saturday, when they're slotted for the late game. Game starts at 9:55 p.m. NCAA games take longer anyway, and it's a close game. At the stroke of midnight, there is 3:41 to play in a 65-65 game. Does the game go on even though it's technically Sunday and BYU can't play on Sundays? Or does the NCAA avoid even the possibility of this happening by non letting BYU get assigned the late Sat slot?
I believe game times are set by CBS, not the NCAA... so all the NCAA can do is put BYU at the Thurs/Sat sites and then it would be up to CBS to ensure they aren't the late game on Saturday night.
As to whether something could fall through the cracks in scheduling, my guess is that ViacomCBS has a full-time staff dedicated to scrubbing anything unnecessarily offensive to LDS, if only to balance out everything that Matt and Trey have done for the LDS church.
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In the late '70s the Brewers had a player, Danny Thomas, who was known as "the Sundown Kid". He was a member of the Worldwide Church of God, and his sabbath went from sundown Friday to sundown Saturday. He would not play during that time.
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In the late '70s the Brewers had a player, Danny Thomas, who was known as "the Sundown Kid". He was a member of the Worldwide Church of God, and his sabbath went from sundown Friday to sundown Saturday. He would not play during that time.
And that was the least of his issues.
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Another silly question ...
Why can Bailey play on Sundays?
I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?
I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
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Another silly question ...
Why can Bailey play on Sundays?
I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?
I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
Steve Young
https://www.quora.com/What-do-Mormon-athletes-do-on-Sundays
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Another silly question ...
Why can Bailey play on Sundays?
I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?
I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
I obviously don't know Bailey's reasoning, but it may be as simple as it's not his personal practice. I worked for the University of Utah for a bit and got to know a lot of LDS students. Despite their reputation for being conservative rule followers, most were like young people in other religions, they had more liberal interpretations of many of the rules and practices. Most I personally knew drank coffee, danced, some even had facial hair, despite being practicing members or at least believers of the LDS church. I didn't have any specific conversations with them about the Sabbath rules but I wouldn't have been surprised to learn that most were open to working on the Sabbath.
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Another silly question ...
Why can Bailey play on Sundays?
I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?
I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
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Another silly question ...
Why can Bailey play on Sundays?
I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?
I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
Simple: There’s nothing in Mormon doctrine that bars an individual from playing sports on Sunday. It’s a personal decision.
Moreover, if an individual feels playing basketball is a calling, then is there anything holier than playing hoops on the sabbath?
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Another silly question ...
Why can Bailey play on Sundays?
I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?
I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
No one in a religion really practices the same way. Things are interpreted differently. Different rules. Idk whatever
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Broken down Cavaliers, scoff.
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Thanks TAMU and Benny. What you say makes sense.
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FEBRUARY 17, 2020
Summary
Pretty uneventful today... Butler and Michigan State had to be flip-flopped on the s-curve to avoid conference re-matches, which only added 250 miles of driving between them.
BYU again ended up opposite of Gonzaga on the 1-32 curve, and that ain’t happening. Fortunately, there's a convenient option in dropping them from the top 8-seed to the last 8-seed occupied by Rutgers, thereby putting BYU in St. Louis and Houston. However, the question then becomes whether the committee would simply flip-flop BYU with Rutgers, or would they roll over UW-Madison, Illinois and Rutgers one spot each? Consider the following:
"Flip-Flop": Instead of going to St. Louis and being on a collision course with #1 overall, Rutgers now has to go cross-country to play Gonzaga in their own backyard. BYU adds about 400 miles to their distance, but Rutgers adds 1,800 and, oh yeah, gets to play Gonzaga in their own backyard.
"Roll Over": BYU drops from #29 on the s-curve to #32, and UW-Madsion moves up from #30 to #29, Illinois from #31 to #30 and Rutgers from #32 to #31. Looking at each of these new matchups individually: first, UW-Madison goes to Spokane, to… hehe… play Gonzaga [muffled laugh]… in their backyard [burst of uncontrollable laughter]. You know what, forget Illinois and Rutgers, this is clearly the best choice.
But seriously, with the Roll Over, Spokane is a slight upgrade, distance-wise, for UW-Madison; Illinois gets screwed out of Omaha, but at least they now have more of neutral court with SDSU in Sacramento (instead of Kansas in Omaha), and Rutgers is now going a few more miles to Omaha instead of facing overall #1 in St. Louis. Bottom line is that we could argue these scenarios all day long, but all four #4 seeds are to be protected, and considering Wisconsin, Illinois and Rutgers collectively, the Roll Over scenario most complies with that guideline (without violating any other guidelines). So that’s what I’m going with.
What Matters Most
Same as last Friday's edition: as a 6-seed, Marquette gets the benefit of WVU's preference in Cleveland and heads to NYC for it's second quarterfinal win at the Garden in two weeks.
[Benny's opinion has already been clearly established that the 6-seed is the fourth best seed in the tournament (in order: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 14) because those are the seed lines furthest away from playing a #1 or #2 seed, which by postponing, it maximizes the chance for someone to knock out those seed(s) before you even get to them. So Benny's loving this.]
Other Notables
Bump'd:No changes in the top 12 teams. Penn State moving up a couple spots sent Nova from NY to Omaha.
Short 100 AAL, UAL and LUV: All of the #1-#3 seeds were naturally placed at their closest 1st Round site. And if that wasn’t enough, all of the #1-#3 seeds (plus Oregon) were ALSO placed at their closest regional site. (Favorable first-round placement is typically reserved for the #1 and #2 seeds, with the #3’s often being sprinkled in for good measure; however, the more geographic distribution you get on the s-curve from 1-16, the closer everyone gets to stay to home that first weekend.)
Tug-o-War:From 2/14 to 2/17, Oregon and Kentucky traded spots on the S-Curve (16 & 17)... which caused both of them to go from Omaha to Sacramento. This could certainly get interesting...
On the Road Again: Only three 2,000+ mile road trips, and Nova and Creighton are the only two protected seeds placed more than 725 miles from campus.
#1 is the Loneliest Number: Gosh, Baylor… you really picked a good year to be good. Even as the potential overall #1 seed, their distance to the closest 1st Round site is more than three times the average distance for the other #1-#3 seeds.
No Thanks, I'll Walk: Excluding Seton Hall, the average sum amongst the protected seeds of each team's respective 1st Rd and Regional site is 1,113 miles. Seton's Hall sum: 170 (151 miles to Albany, 19 miles to MSG).
Bun Bun the Middle One: The largest sum of 1st Rd and Regional sites: Creighton at 2,929 (so much for being central to everything).
Where Can I See Dozens of Broken-Down Cavaliers Along the Highway the week of March 16th?: I-71.
Where Can I See Dozens of Broken-Down Cavaliers Along the Highway the following week?: Still on I-71. They would otherwise be on I-70 between Richmond and Greenfield, IN the following week, but there's an extreme shortage of junkyard parts available in and around Ohio these days.
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Thanks TAMU and Benny. What you say makes sense.
You are welcome Mike
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Thanks TAMU and Benny. What you say makes sense.
You are welcome Mike
Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?
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Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?
Maybe he's a mix of both of us... kind of like how Carbon and Oxygen - otherwise two of the most important elements to life on Earth - can combine into something that will literally suffocate you.
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Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?
He is weirdly obsessed with me.
I have not communicated with hoopaloop in a Scoop thread since Dec. 23, and have not discussed anything with him even by PM for 6 weeks now, but he keeps trying to draw me back in with his lies and insanity.
Interestingly, he has proven he doesn't need discourse with any one particular Scooper to keep ruining thread after thread. It's hoopaloopin' at its finest, his special talent.
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Wait, you are TAMU and Benny too?
I think you know the why...
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He is weirdly obsessed with me.
I have not communicated with hoopaloop in a Scoop thread since Dec. 23, and have not discussed anything with him even by PM for 6 weeks now, but he keeps trying to draw me back in with his lies and insanity.
Interestingly, he has proven he doesn't need discourse with any one particular Scooper to keep ruining thread after thread. It's hoopaloopin' at its finest, his special talent.
LOL. I have never been more permanently in someone’s head then yours. I think the non direct answers acknowledging what I said but passive aggressively showing how you aren’t paying attention are my favorites....like this current one I am responding to.
Those 18 emails you sent me over 2 weeks....thank God you aren’t communicating any longer....should have put out a restraining order on you.
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BYU again ended up opposite of Gonzaga on the 1-32 curve, and that ain’t happening. Fortunately, there's a convenient option in dropping them from the top 8-seed to the last 8-seed occupied by Rutgers, thereby putting BYU in St. Louis and Houston. However, the question then becomes whether the committee would simply flip-flop BYU with Rutgers, or would they roll over UW-Madison, Illinois and Rutgers one spot each?
I think St Louis and Indianapolis is the only option for BYU. They can't play in Houston due to the Sunday game. Kansas, if they maintain a 1-seed, seems locked into one of the SLU spots and the likely top seed in the Midwest. If not there, how far might they flex BYU to put them into Indianapolis, because that's their obit viable regional.
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I think St Louis and Indianapolis is the only option for BYU. They can't play in Houston due to the Sunday game. Kansas, if they maintain a 1-seed, seems locked into one of the SLU spots and the likely top seed in the Midwest. If not there, how far might they flex BYU to put them into Indianapolis, because that's their obit viable regional.
You're right... I mistakenly had Indy and NYC as the Sunday regionals (it is NY and Houston). As soon as I correct my spreadsheet, I'll go back and see what changes would be necessary, but generally, the #1-#6 seeds should be unaffected.
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(Previous dates archived in later posts)
FEBRUARY 18, 2020
Summary
BYU hasn't been that difficult to shift around so far; however, today is the first day where it actually made more sense to move them up the s-curve instead of down. Even though they jumped three spots, they really only jumped two; originally, Michigan was matched up with Maryland in Round 2, and even though this rule might get relaxed with the Big? (potentially) having 10-11 teams in the tournament, I'm abiding for purposes of this exercise. In other words, before the Chik-Fil-A rule was applied, BYU and Michigan had already swapped, and BYU was then swapped with LSU for Tampa/Houston placement. I had considered shifting LSU and Houston down a spot, but LSU in Greensboro and Houston in Cleveland is marginally more favorable than the other way around (Michigan, incidentally, stayed in Greensboro but simply swapped pods).
Rutgers and Illinois originally occupied #31 and #32 on the s-curve. So why did I flip those two around? Despite Champaign being a couple hours from St. Louis, it stands to reason that there are a lot of U o fI alums in/around St. Louis, and whether this rises to a level of "home-court" advantage, I believe the committee would give an extra amount of deference to the #1 overall, thus moving Illinois elsewhere.
What Matters Most
Despite not moving on the s-curve for the third straight day, Marquette is now heading to sunny Tampa. Penn State's move up the S-Curve dropped Auburn to #12 (which was formerly occupied by West Virginia), which is opposite Marquette's #21 spot.
Other Notables
Get These Guys a Gulfstream: Creighton's sum of driving distances for the first two weekends eclipsed 3,000 today.
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FEBRUARY 21, 2020
Data only. No observations.
FEBRUARY 20, 2020
Yesterday got away from me, so don't worry... there is no data for the 19th.
Summary
BYU hasn't really tested my patience yet, but today they pushed a little bit more. Originally, they were the last 7-seed (#28), and there were no 8-seeds with a Chik-Fil-A opening, so I moved them to the last 6-seed and bumped OSU, LSU, Michigan and Houston down one spot each. Overall, the collective mileage is slightly less than it was originally, but while OSU's travel increased the most, they're now going to sunny Tampa instead of St. Louis.
What Matters Most
Even with the loss to Creighton fully factored in, MU hasn't moved off #21 on the s-curve. Nevertheless, today they're slotted back into Cleveland opposite Penn State.
Benny highly recommends the Metropolitan at the 9 in Downtown Cleveland... it is technically a Marriott property and just a couple blocks' walk from Quicken Loans Arena in the heart of downtown. In fact, the upper floors are condos, and many professional athletes also make their home there during the season; who knows, you might even see someone from the Browns throwing his girlfriend around an elevator lobby during your stay.
Other Notables
Don't Burn the Couch While I'm Gone: We have a new leader in the road warrior category... Should West Virginia advance past Tampa, they'll be on their way to LA. Not to worry however as it's only a little longer than their average conference road trip.
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Will be in LA and going to the West Regional. Hoping MU gets placed out west so I have 4-6 days of false hope.
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Updated for March 3rd. Things are shaking out...
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ARCHIVED
MARCH 3, 2020
It occurs to me that I've been doing the placements out of order... I've been going "pods first, regionals next" instead of the other way around. As far as the trend chart goes, it's still 95% accurate... pods are mostly selected independent of regionals; the only exception is that BYU's pod is dependent on the regional. So BYU's placement (and anyone with whom they were swapped) may bit a bit off prior to today, but generally speaking, everything else is substantially accurate.
Although MU still appears in 108/108 brackets, they have fallen to the last 7-seed on the S-Curve... fortunately, they have decent pod placement (Cleveland); however, this means a 2nd rd. match up with Dayton, who is currently the top 2-seed. Neverthless, as bad as that is, if MU falls any further, the odds of having to face Gonzaga - in Spokane - in the 2nd rd. increase drastically (especially because one of the 8-seeds is St. Mary's, who can't be matched up with Gonzaga in the 2nd rd.)
Otherwise, I feel pretty confident about today's placement... there is nearly perfect balance in the regionals, long-distance trips are minimal, everyone is placed on their natural seed-line, and other than having to move BYU up two spots on the S-Curve (swapped with OSU), there were no adjustments to the S-Curve.