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Author Topic: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites  (Read 2906 times)

Benny B

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2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« on: February 14, 2020, 01:47:19 PM »
MARCH 6, 2020

This whole thread started for one reason: Spokane.  Well, actually two reasons: Gonzaga and Spokane.

Aside from the fact that it's the only first round site to which you cannot fly direct from ORD (at least not on AAL), you might end up playing Gonzaga in their own backyard.  Think back to the Ja Show in Hartford, more specifically how the entire arena (save for a couple hundred MU faithful) erupted every time MU gave up a shot... now multiply that by 100 and you get the picture.

Now, I'm not that guy who turns around and starts barking at the other fans and reveling in another's misery, so the chance of knocking off a #1 in their own backyard doesn't do it for me.  In other words, the upside that can only be appreciated by the true disciples of schaden fraude isn't anywhere close to justifying the potential downside of traveling 8 hours to Bumbleflock, USA just to get pummeled in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday (if MU even makes it that far).  Oh yeah, there's that virus thing up there, too.  Spec-freakin-tacular.

So, if you haven't already guessed where MU is slotted by today's s-curve, just look up.  To make matters worse... if you look at the other 8-seeds, MU to Spokane is still the most favorable matchup distance-wise.  In other words, the shortest collective distance among MU, Virginia and LSU (remember, St. Mary's can't play in Gonzaga's pod) has MU going to Spokane, regardless.  So if these are your 8-seeds on Selection Sunday, my fear is that MU will slide right into Spokane, regardless, as the committee strives to minimize driving distances.

Bottom line... MU needs to get off the 8 line.  At this point, it's hard to see them falling below a 9-seed, but hell, if I was the coach, I might consider sandbagging the next two in the hopes of dropping to the 10 or 11 line, even at the risk of going straight to a #1 seed (in the NIT).
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 12:48:39 PM by Benny B »
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2020, 01:47:45 PM »
March 6 Trend
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 12:42:39 PM by Benny B »
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2020, 01:48:04 PM »
[Moved title post]

So what is this?

I'm sure many of us have noticed by now that Spokane is a 1st round site this year, right?  But did anyone notice that the host is the University of Idaho and the venue is Veterans Memorial Arena, a place where the Zags have played only once since 2012.

From the fan's perspective, if your team is anywhere near the #7-#10 seed lines, you could be matched in a pod with Gonzaga in either the 1st or 2nd round.  Now in most years, no big deal... Gonzaga is usually considered the weakest X-seed of the X-seeds; however, in light of the previous paragraph and barring an epic collapse to their season:

1) The Zags are going to be playing home games on the 19th and 21st.
2) Spokane is probably the worst 1st round site as far as travel options go (access, availability and price) for 95% of the country.
3) Tickets on the secondary market will be scarce.


So with this in mind - and since everyone and their mother already has a full-blown bracketology prognostication - I decided to skip the first and last parts of the selection process and simply handicap potential tourney sites for the #1-#8 seeds, using the Bracket Matrix's consensus s-curve as the basis and then placing teams in the bracket according to the Selection Committee's top three guidelines: 1) driving distance, 2) conference opponents (both rematches and separating top three into different regionals), and 3) no BYU on Sundays (a/k/a the Chik-Fil-A rule).  Actually, it's more like two guidelines, a rule and another rule... I'm also keeping Creighton out of Omaha and Houston out of Houston because, unlike Gonzaga, they are the hosts (I don't think we have to worry about the Johnnies, IUPUI or Pepperdine, but sure, them too).

That being said, THIS IS NOT BRACKETOLOGY (hence, its own thread).  The experiment here is primarily to see if a pattern emerges over the remaining weeks of the season (and to check the results against the actual bracket when announced) and secondarily, should patterns emerge, I can also start handicapping potential team hotels (because if I keep making two dozen hotel reservations and canceling 23 of them every March, eventually Marriott is going to get wise to me.(See... the whole thread is self-serving!)

Finally, this is not an exact science... there are several flaws in my methodology, namely the following:

1) I am only using three four of the committee's six or seven guidelines/rules for placement.
2) It is possible that a #9-#16 seed could affect the placement of a #1-4 seed.
3) I am using a consensus s-curve, i.e. one that has not been "scrubbed" by the committee (after the s-curve is drafted, the committee reviews it again and may fine-tune anything that may not pass the "eye-test" before they move to bracketing/placement).
4) The three four guidelines/rules I'm using are not entirely objective... sometimes there's more than one applicable guideline/rule and choosing which to enforce (or which order to enforce) will be a judgement call (e.g. if BYU naturally falls into a pod at a Sunday site, with whom do they swap, do you swap up or down, do you move their opponents instead, etc.)
5) Another one that I thought of as I was editing the daily post below but now I've forgotten.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 01:07:11 PM by Benny B »
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

WellsstreetWanderer

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2020, 02:23:02 PM »
Nowhere is a destination from Spokane.
Terrible location for the Tournament

MU82

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2020, 02:56:13 PM »
But if we go to Spokane, the good news is ...

... wait, there is no good news to that scenario.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

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MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2020, 03:59:50 PM »
Nowhere is a destination from Spokane.
Terrible location for the Tournament

As we say in New England, "You can't there from here."
More likely, "You can't get there from anywhere."

dgies9156

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2020, 04:40:32 PM »
Pushing really hard for Tampa for our beloved Warriors.

Short drive from the Treasure Coast, easy back and forth and as long as we don't see the Seminoles, OK

Being selfish here.. LOL

brewcity77

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2020, 04:56:20 PM »
BYU is going to be almost impossible to place at this rate. They can't play in the South or East because they can't play on Sundays. They likely can't play in the West because Gonzaga will be there and the Selection Committee won't put what will be 67% of the WCC entrants (or possibly 100%) in the same region. That leaves just the Midwest.

In the first round, they can't play in Greensboro, Omaha, Sacramento, or Cleveland because all have Sunday games. Spokane seems unlikely as it will be Gonzaga as one protected seed and likely the last 4-seed as the other; BYU is unlikely to be on the 5, 12, or 13 lines. So that leaves a Midwest site in Albany, St. Louis, or Tampa. Their seed will make it very interesting. Don't be surprised to see BYU as one of the rare teams moved up or down 2 seed lines to accommodate their schedule difficulties.

geps

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2020, 08:46:22 AM »
Thanks for taking in depth shot at this. Boy can we get a 3 seed? Even the 4s appear geographically dicey. Of course the dream scenario is St. Louis to Indy.
 

MU82

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2020, 08:56:33 AM »
BYU is going to be almost impossible to place at this rate. They can't play in the South or East because they can't play on Sundays. They likely can't play in the West because Gonzaga will be there and the Selection Committee won't put what will be 67% of the WCC entrants (or possibly 100%) in the same region. That leaves just the Midwest.

In the first round, they can't play in Greensboro, Omaha, Sacramento, or Cleveland because all have Sunday games. Spokane seems unlikely as it will be Gonzaga as one protected seed and likely the last 4-seed as the other; BYU is unlikely to be on the 5, 12, or 13 lines. So that leaves a Midwest site in Albany, St. Louis, or Tampa. Their seed will make it very interesting. Don't be surprised to see BYU as one of the rare teams moved up or down 2 seed lines to accommodate their schedule difficulties.

Silly question ...

Let's say BYU gets put in Albany and advances to Saturday, when they're slotted for the late game. Game starts at 9:55 p.m. NCAA games take longer anyway, and it's a close game. At the stroke of midnight, there is 3:41 to play in a 65-65 game. Does the game go on even though it's technically Sunday and BYU can't play on Sundays? Or does the NCAA avoid even the possibility of this happening by non letting BYU get assigned the late Sat slot?
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We R Final Four

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2020, 09:08:42 AM »
I remember the Utah Jazz playing after sundown on a Sunday in the NBA playoffs. I believe the sabbath is sun up til sun down. Not 100% on this, but I believe in your scenario it’s “not Sunday yet”, even though it’s 12:01 on Sunday am.

Cheeks

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2020, 09:35:41 AM »
As we say in New England, "You can't there from here."
More likely, "You can't get there from anywhere."

Non stop flights from Los Angeles daily.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

brewcity77

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2020, 11:36:39 AM »
Silly question ...

Let's say BYU gets put in Albany and advances to Saturday, when they're slotted for the late game. Game starts at 9:55 p.m. NCAA games take longer anyway, and it's a close game. At the stroke of midnight, there is 3:41 to play in a 65-65 game. Does the game go on even though it's technically Sunday and BYU can't play on Sundays? Or does the NCAA avoid even the possibility of this happening by non letting BYU get assigned the late Sat slot?

I think We R Final Four is probably right, but the Sunday predicament could've happened in 2003. The realized it after the bracket reveal and their new plan was that if BYU made the Sweet 16, they would swap them into the Midwest (which would've been the Wisconsin spot against Kentucky, before we played UK).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/ncaatourney03/story?id=1524804

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #13 on: February 17, 2020, 03:10:22 PM »
Archiving
-------------
FEBRUARY 14, 2020

Summary
With exception of BYU falling into a Sunday pod & regional (and the next closest non-Sunday pod being Gonzaga in Spokane), this was a pretty easy placement.  Nobody moved up or down more than one seed, Ohio State was originally slated for St. Louis (so ending up in Greensboro is comparable), and Sacramento is much closer for Texas Tech than Greensboro... so it was a pretty easy justification all around.

What Matters Most
As a 6-seed, Marquette gets the benefit of WVU's preference in Cleveland and heads to NYC for it's second quarterfinal win at the Garden in two weeks.  I'll take that all day.

Other Notables
The House Divided: Together Again: Michigan (vs. Gonzaga) and MSU (vs. Butler) both in Spokane (although separate pods)

On the Road Again: Aside from the Michi-Twins in Spokane, the only other 2,000+ mile road trips belong to Penn State and Arizona.

Survival of the Fattest: OSU vs. Duke in Greensboro, Illinois vs. Dayton in Cleveland, Iowa vs. FSU in Tampa, UW-Ma vs. Kansas in Omaha, and Rutgers vs. Baylor in St. Louis... Penn State & Maryland might be the only ones reppin' the Big ? in the Sweet 16.

I'll Scratch Your Back: Nova and Seton Hall are the only two conference mates with top billing in their respective pods sharing the same 1st round site.  Saturday afternoon should be rockin' in Albany.

Racking up the Miles: Butler's potential reward for surviving a weekend in Spokane... a trip to LA the following weekend.

A Weekend Cruise: Of the #1-4 seeds, eleven are within a 6-hour drive of their 1st round site.

Wacky Races: Despite being 225 miles further away, Baylor's fans can drive to their 1st round site (St. Louis) faster than San Diego State's (Sacramento).

Where Can I See Dozens of Broken-Down Cavaliers Along the Highway This Week?: On I-71 starting just north of Columbus and continuing up to Mansfield.  Although you may see an outlier closer to Strongsville (hahaha, you almost made it, Flyer42!!!).
« Last Edit: February 17, 2020, 03:12:22 PM by Benny B »
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #14 on: February 17, 2020, 03:22:17 PM »
Silly question ...

Let's say BYU gets put in Albany and advances to Saturday, when they're slotted for the late game. Game starts at 9:55 p.m. NCAA games take longer anyway, and it's a close game. At the stroke of midnight, there is 3:41 to play in a 65-65 game. Does the game go on even though it's technically Sunday and BYU can't play on Sundays? Or does the NCAA avoid even the possibility of this happening by non letting BYU get assigned the late Sat slot?

I believe game times are set by CBS, not the NCAA... so all the NCAA can do is put BYU at the Thurs/Sat sites and then it would be up to CBS to ensure they aren't the late game on Saturday night.


As to whether something could fall through the cracks in scheduling, my guess is that ViacomCBS has a full-time staff dedicated to scrubbing anything unnecessarily offensive to LDS, if only to balance out everything that Matt and Trey have done for the LDS church.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

ManeCity83

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #15 on: February 17, 2020, 03:41:38 PM »
In the late '70s the Brewers had a player, Danny Thomas, who was known as "the Sundown Kid".  He was a member of the Worldwide Church of God, and his sabbath went from sundown Friday to sundown Saturday.  He would not play during that time.
Mr. Wojo Risin'

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #16 on: February 17, 2020, 03:46:00 PM »
In the late '70s the Brewers had a player, Danny Thomas, who was known as "the Sundown Kid".  He was a member of the Worldwide Church of God, and his sabbath went from sundown Friday to sundown Saturday.  He would not play during that time.

And that was the least of his issues.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”  -Clarence Darrow

MU82

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #17 on: February 17, 2020, 11:05:05 PM »
Another silly question ...

Why can Bailey play on Sundays?

I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?

I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

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Cheeks

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #18 on: February 17, 2020, 11:25:51 PM »
Another silly question ...

Why can Bailey play on Sundays?

I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?

I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.

Steve Young

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« Last Edit: February 17, 2020, 11:27:56 PM by Cheeks »
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

TAMU Garcia

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #19 on: February 18, 2020, 12:41:44 AM »
Another silly question ...

Why can Bailey play on Sundays?

I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?

I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.

I obviously don't know Bailey's reasoning, but it may be as simple as it's not his personal practice. I worked for the University of Utah for a bit and got to know a lot of LDS students. Despite their reputation for being conservative rule followers, most were like young people in other religions, they had more liberal interpretations of many of the rules and practices. Most I personally knew drank coffee, danced, some even had facial hair, despite being practicing members or at least believers of the LDS church. I didn't have any specific conversations with them about the Sabbath rules but I wouldn't have been surprised to learn that most were open to working on the Sabbath.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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The Thing

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #20 on: February 18, 2020, 12:51:13 AM »
Another silly question ...

Why can Bailey play on Sundays?

I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?

I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.

Benny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #21 on: February 18, 2020, 01:03:44 AM »
Another silly question ...

Why can Bailey play on Sundays?

I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?

I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.

Simple: There’s nothing in Mormon doctrine that bars an individual from playing sports on Sunday.  It’s a personal decision.

Moreover, if an individual feels playing basketball is a calling, then is there anything holier than playing hoops on the sabbath?
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Johnny B

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #22 on: February 18, 2020, 01:09:33 AM »
Another silly question ...

Why can Bailey play on Sundays?

I guess he was religious enough to go on a mission for 2 years, but not so religious that he needs to follow the sabbath rules ... um ... religiously?

I am not being obtuse. Genuinely curious. Maybe he (or Thurl) has discussed this.
No one in a religion really practices the same way. Things are interpreted differently. Different rules. Idk whatever
« Last Edit: February 18, 2020, 01:17:48 AM by Johnny B »

Retire0

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #23 on: February 18, 2020, 05:19:05 AM »
Broken down Cavaliers, scoff.
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

MU82

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Re: 2020 NCAA Bracket Placement/Tourney Sites
« Reply #24 on: February 18, 2020, 08:18:24 AM »
Thanks TAMU and Benny. What you say makes sense.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

 

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