Dean Smith idiot

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Catch 22

[fjm]

Catch 22

WHAT A FUGGIN ENDING.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Which ending? Cuz the last one was truly crazy!!!
So much for fouling up 3

[Cheeks]

Which ending? Cuz the last one was truly crazy!!!
So much for fouling up 3

And if they didn't foul up 3 and Duke hit a 3....people would scream.  Miracle outcome doesn't make it the wrong call.

[tower912]

Damned if you do/don't.   Statistically insignificant difference.   A coach chooses.  Sometimes, regardless of the choice, it fails.

[Cfollow]

That borderline senile fossil has three McDonalds all-Americans coming in next year. They must pay really well. The ROI sucks though.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Damned if you do/don't.   Statistically insignificant difference.   A coach chooses.  Sometimes, regardless of the choice, it fails.

Perfectly stated tower.  As u state statistically about the same, therefore, anyone arguing that one way is better than the other is a complete moron because piles of data say its a flip of the coin.

[Lennys Tap]

And if they didn't foul up 3 and Duke hit a 3....people would scream.  Miracle outcome doesn't make it the wrong call.

So when you don't foul up 3 and they tie it - it proves you should have fouled.

And when you do foul up 3 and they tie it - it proves nothing.

Sounds logical.

[Loose Cannon]

So when you don't foul up 3 and they tie it - it proves you should have fouled.

And when you do foul up 3 and they tie it - it proves nothing.

Sounds logical.

Yep 3rd base.

[Cheeks]

Choice One...one thing has to happen

Play defense and let a guy take a 3.   Chances are 30% to 40% for most good 3 point shooters.  You also risk fouling the player in the act.


Choice two...3 things have to happen

Foul up three

1) Player must make first free throw.  65% to 75% chance
2) team must get rebound. 20% to 30%
3) team must now make another basket 45% to 55% chance

I'll take choice two every time because it is logical.

[bilsu]

Choice One...one thing has to happen

Play defense and let a guy take a 3.   Chances are 30% to 40% for most good 3 point shooters.  You also risk fouling the player in the act.


Choice two...3 things have to happen

Foul up three

1) Player must make first free throw.  65% to 75% chance
2) team must get rebound. 20% to 30%
3) team must now make another basket 45% to 55% chance

I'll take choice two every time because it is logical.

The problem with fouling up 3 is how much time is left. In my opinion 10 seconds is too long. Assuming the team makes two free throws and is now down one. They immediately foul you, if you get the ball in. Now you have to make two free throws to get is back to three. Miss one or both and the team has a chance to beat you with maybe 8 seconds to go and you can no longer afford to foul them.

Even with four seconds a team still has to get the ball in, if the fouled team makes the last free throw. You certainly do not want to put your team in this situation, if you have no timeouts left.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Choice One...one thing has to happen

Play defense and let a guy take a 3.   Chances are 30% to 40% for most good 3 point shooters.  You also risk fouling the player in the act.


Choice two...3 things have to happen

Foul up three

1) Player must make first free throw.  65% to 75% chance
2) team must get rebound. 20% to 30%
3) team must now make another basket 45% to 55% chance

I'll take choice two every time because it is logical.

This is assuming that clock will hit zero when the possession is over. Lots of other possibilities for both situations if there is time left on the clock. Even if there will be no time left on the clock, I think there are a few more variables then you are acknowledging.

That being said, I think 9 times out of 10 the right call is to foul up three and less than 10 seconds. But I do think there are some scenarios where you should let them try to take the three.