Markus (usually) does not shoot too much

[auburnmarquette]

Rather than throw this into the jokes about Markus shooting too much (which was cleverly worded) I want to try to explain why this is not the case.

Markus hits 40 percent of his 3-pointers - which has the same impact as a player hitting 60 percent of his 2-pointers and is well above the 33% of 3-pointers going in nationally this year. So when he gets a 3-pointer off he is averaging 1.2 points per attempt which is amazing in light of the number of shots because even studies on the great Kobe - rest in peace - show that the more shots a given player has to create the lower his percentages (because if you only need to take a couple of shots you are just taking the easy open shots and a higher percentage go in but you have less impact.

Second, he is in the top 4% or assist players in the country if you look at kenpom - meaning a very high percent of the baskets by other Marquette players come off his assists and when you add that to the space he creates just because someone needs to stay with him 20 plus feet from the basket he does create opportunities.

Again looking at kenpom he is the best guard in the country at drawing fouls, so while the 2 pt percentage is not as good when you add a guy constantly at the line hitting 86% once he gets there you want him driving a ton with because the expected points between him either hitting a 2 pointer or being fouled and hitting free throws is also very high. The only 2 players to draw fouls at a higher percentage than him are a 6-10 center at wvu and a guard in the swac.

I said usually because there are certainly occasions where he should have passed - running past Sam Hauser for the last second shot against Seton Hall in the big east tourney last year and putting up a 3-pointer with 15 seconds left at Butler when we needed a 2-pointer with 3 seconds left - both those were at the end of bad games and the latter dropped him to 19th in my national ratings (though that is mainly because as a small guy his defensive rating hurts him) but overall the last thing Marquette needs is Markus to be self conscious about trying to shoot less like I believe happened down the stretch last year with the season falling apart. I actually emailed Ken Pomeroy tonlet him know I'd accept his ranking of Markus as the 4th best player in the nation over my value add ranking.

That being said, I do believe the win at Xavier was not the first time one if the others stepped up - and with 3 other players who are athletic and can hit 3s I believe as I wrote earlier in the week that this is the most balanced team since 2013.

We can win this year when Markus is off or even out of the game - but most of the time his ability to create shots and trips to the foul line makes him one of the biggest impact players in the country and opens things up for other players - giving them more open shots though fewer shots

With the two great rim protectors this year and all the players who can do so many things I live the way this team is put together - but some days it will take Markus scoring 30 or 40 and other days we have great options to step up.

[Johnny B]

He definitely should the most. I dont have a problem with him shooting tough shots usually

[Newsdreams]

Where are the Markus haters??

[tower912]

Waiting for him to miss a forced shot or get double teamed by a couple of 6'6 guys and turn it over.

[fjm]

Where are the Markus haters??

You will not find the MarKus haters you are looking for in this thread.

They will be in a negative thread about a game. Because Facts and Analysis are BS to them.

[Dr. Blackheart]

No hater, the guy is an all-timer. The best opposing teams, though, double, triple and as we saw with Xavier at times, quadruple team him. The physicality against him picks up as the opponents get tougher, yet his free throw rate is actually lower (42.3 versus 35.8%) versus Pomeroy A opponents.

While his usage remains high versus Pomeroy A teams, his efficiency does not. His Orating for the season is 112 but is only 93 versus A opponents. While he does shoot 40% from outside the arc for the season, he is 29% versus A teams. His assist and turnover rates are similar, yet his eFG% drops to 41.6% from 51.8%. It's pretty obvious why (and it's because of and not on Markus).

End of the day, offensive diversification against MU opponents is critical for MU's high powered offense driven by a one of a kind player and driving force. Sacar, Bailey and Cain all have better Oratings against A teams as a result. As the yoga master says, "balance  leads to harmony".

[AZMarqfan]

Not a Markus hater here.  He's been an amazingly impactful player.  However, the team tends to play better when he occasionally looks to create for others.  Torrence and McEwen have handled the ball far less, but have contributed some fantastic assists (especially to our bigs).  Markus can single-handedly carry the team in a way few can, but he doesn't have that level going EVERY game (nobody does or can).  He is what he is—a shoot-first SG in a diminutive PG's body.  I thought Rowsey was a better primary ball-handler, and 2-years ago I hoped Elliott would take over that role.  Last year I hoped JC was that guy, but he wasn't up to it.  This year I hoped McEwen would be that guy.  While I like the power and speed of his dribble, and I like that he's been looking to his teammates as a primary responsibility, his shooting/slashing results have been less than I'd hoped.  I worry that when we get to the NCAA tourney, some team will stifle Howard, and our team will struggle to make plays that create for others. 

It's okay to have concerns.  The nature of the internet is that people like to form opposing associations in their minds—such as Howard-haters and Howard-lovers.  The reality is it's more of a spectrum.  People bashing him at times (myself included) are grateful to witness his talent and performance, but also view him a a flawed player.  People exclusively heaping praise on him sometimes fail to recognize those flaws, and how at various moments or in certain games, they can negatively affect the team, stifling offensive creativity and performance.  But I honestly think every poster in this board will be talking about Howard's career like my dad talked about players from Al's era. 

[MU82]

Great post by auburn, and great comments by Dr. B and AZMarq.

Having Markus on the floor is always a great thing for our Warriors. He is an elite scorer who can take advantage of even the slightest opening, and his mere presence on the floor creates opportunities for others. The number of wide-open 3s that Sacar, BB, Koby, Jamal and Greg get is largely because Markus is on the floor - and quite often because he is passing the ball to them. Given that we have absolutely no post presence that requires any opponent to double-down, it's amazing how many wide-open 3-point shooters we have every game (aside from Markus, who is rarely wide open).

If Markus is "feelin' it" - either from 3 or seeing an opportunity to drive -- I almost always prefer him shooting to any other option for all the fact-based reasons auburn states.

However, there are times he takes high-difficulty, low-probability shots even when he isn't hot and when he has teammates open. It makes the offense stagnate, and it reduces the chances that we'll score on those possessions. It understandably might displease some of his teammates, too.

Those are the ones that I think most of us - even the biggest Markus fans - wish he would not take. Thankfully, there aren't many of those kinds of shots most games.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Well said by the last few posters. It doesn't make you a Markus hater to not want him trying to dribble through triple teams.  Like any college player ever, there are dimensions he has to add to his game and I assume one day he will at the next level.
For the time being it's just fun to watch an all-timer go at it.

[Eldon]

Great post by auburn, and great comments by Dr. B and AZMarq.

Having Markus on the floor is always a great thing for our Warriors. He is an elite scorer who can take advantage of even the slightest opening, and his mere presence on the floor creates opportunities for others. The number of wide-open 3s that Sacar, BB, Koby, Jamal and Greg get is largely because Markus is on the floor - and quite often because he is passing the ball to them. Given that we have absolutely no post presence that requires any opponent to double-down, it's amazing how many wide-open 3-point shooters we have every game (aside from Markus, who is rarely wide open).

If Markus is "feelin' it" - either from 3 or seeing an opportunity to drive -- I almost always prefer him shooting to any other option for all the fact-based reasons auburn states.

However, there are times he takes high-difficulty, low-probability shots even when he isn't hot and when he has teammates open. It makes the offense stagnate, and it reduces the chances that we'll score on those possessions. It understandably might displease some of his teammates, too.


Those are the ones that I think most of us - even the biggest Markus fans - wish he would not take. Thankfully, there aren't many of those kinds of shots most games.

It's 100% on Wojo to coach this out of him.  Buck stops with the coach.

In fairness to Wojo, getting such a skilled shooter to discern between great shots and great passes is a tough task.

[MU82]

It's 100% on Wojo to coach this out of him.  Buck stops with the coach.

In fairness to Wojo, getting such a skilled shooter to discern between great shots and great passes is a tough task.

Your second paragraph contradicts your first. It obviously isn't "100% on Wojo" if it's such a tough task to get any skilled shooter to do that. Glad you realized it wasn't "in fairness" to claim it was.

But I will agree with what I think you meant: a large percentage of responsibility falls on the head coach and his assistants to work with players on developing this skill. And decision-making is a skill. I remember a couple of games down the stretch last season in which Sam forced numerous shots, all of which he missed, and I think most Scoopers would agree that Sam generally made very good decisions during his time as a Warrior. It happens.

Markus has a ton of room for improvement in the decision-making department. Given that his college career is about 90% complete, it's not likely that he'll improve upon it much during his time remaining as a Warrior. So, most games, we're gonna have to live with the No. 1 scorer in college basketball taking a few ill-advised shots and making a couple ill-advised drives.

It's a trade-off I'm willing to make - not that I (or any of us) have a choice.

[auburnmarquette]

No hater, the guy is an all-timer. The best opposing teams, though, double, triple and as we saw with Xavier at times, quadruple team him. The physicality against him picks up as the opponents get tougher, yet his free throw rate is actually lower (42.3 versus 35.8%) versus Pomeroy A opponents.

While his usage remains high versus Pomeroy A teams, his efficiency does not. His Orating for the season is 112 but is only 93 versus A opponents. While he does shoot 40% from outside the arc for the season, he is 29% versus A teams. His assist and turnover rates are similar, yet his eFG% drops to 41.6% from 51.8%. It's pretty obvious why (and it's because of and not on Markus).

End of the day, offensive diversification against MU opponents is critical for MU's high powered offense driven by a one of a kind player and driving force. Sacar, Bailey and Cain all have better Oratings against A teams as a result. As the yoga master says, "balance  leads to harmony".

Those are all fair points and a good further breakdown. I did include the "usually" because there are stretches where he is a little off or the defensive scheme is really good against him and a few more trips of standing in the corner as a decoy is the best role. Good stuff in the vs A competition breakdown.

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

It's 100% on Wojo to coach this out of him.  Buck stops with the coach.

In fairness to Wojo, getting such a skilled shooter to discern between great shots and great passes is a tough task.

.....and this is why player development is a big question mark with Wojo. 

[bilsu]

Does anybody else think Markus does not get the respect from the refs he deserves? Maybe he just falls down a lot, but there are a lot of drives where it appears he got hit and there is no call made.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Does anybody else think Markus does not get the respect from the refs he deserves? Maybe he just falls down a lot, but there are a lot of drives where it appears he got hit and there is no call made.

Markus draws 7.8 fouls per every 40 minutes, fifth best in the country (among those with minutes). This is tops in the Big East...by a lot.

[warriorchick]

Markus draws 7.8 fouls per every 40 minutes, fifth best in the country (among those with minutes). This is tops in the Big East...by a lot.

That doesn't mean that he doesn't get the appropriate number of fouls called on him. Maybe it should be more.

[Dr. Blackheart]

That doesn't mean that he doesn't get the appropriate number of fouls called on him. Maybe it should be more.

I think he likely gets technically fouled on every offensive play he is in possession. I do think it is objectively wrong to say "Markus does not get respect" from officials, however, which is what I responded to.

To put Koby and Markus fouls drawn into perspective (Koby is 7th in the BE in FD/40), opponents draw 12.8 fouls per 40 combined trying to guard our starting guards. With their high minutes, that's two players+ fouling out per game.

Opponents are throwing two, three and four players at trying to stop a guy whose % of shots is 42.5%. No different from what the Bad Boy Pistons did going after Jordon.

For a player who shoots a lot of threes like Markus, that is a high fouls drawn rate. Teams are trying to slow him down even before he gets the ball, as once he gets it, you have often already lost the battle.

Where many of the non-whistled calls occur are on his drives. The baseline official is looking at two primary things there in their line of sight: Feet in the semi circle and the shooting arm. What's missed (and are more of a grey area) with Markus are the high body fouls/bumps. For instance, the Badgers are notorious for teaching this where they go straight up with their hands to not hit the shooting arm/hand but totally bump the body or slide under it (Providence a year ago, Floppy always). That call should come from the outside official frankly as they can see that three dimensionally but they too often defer that play to the official closest (baseline) and they are focused on the rebounders there getting into position.

Point being, while we are complaining about the lack of calls against Markus, the opposing coaches are complaining all their players are getting fouled out. As an official, you trying to balance over-officiating versus letting the players play which often leads to inconsistent refereeing which is a legit gripe. Btw, I think Sacar gets hosed more than Markus.

[MU82]

.....and this is why player development is a big question mark with Wojo.

Yeah, if only Markus had developed into an All-American.

And if only Sam had developed into a standout college basketball player.

And if only Sacar had developed into a guy who far surpassed just about any Marquette fan's wildest expectations for him

And if only Bailey and Theo had developed into legit Big East starters.

But yeah, I know, they all did that stuff DESPITE the horrible coaching they've received.

[Elonsmusk]

Yeah, if I not Markus had developed into an All-American

And if only Sam had developed into a standout college basketball player.

And if onky Sacar had developed into a guy who far surpassed just about any Marquette Fan's wildest expectations for him

And if only Bailey and Theo had developed into legit Big East starters.

But yeah, I know, they all did that stuff DESPITE the horrible coaching they've received.

In my opinion Markus and Sam came to MU with very polished games for freshman. There was some improvement, yet numbers increased primarily through an increase in usage.

Brendan is rounding into a nice player, yet he is the son of an NBA player, was Top 100 kid and is 22.6 years old, with relatively modest usage.

Theo has improved some and is what we thought we were getting - a physical, skilled defender with limited offensive skills.

Sacar has made great improvements and IMO the best example for this coaching staff to sell/model.

Think Wojo and staff's best attribute has been the ability to identify skilled high school players - often times earlier than other schools, and subsequently beginning recruitment sooner.

[Nukem2]

Yeah, if I not Markus had developed into an All-American

And if only Sam had developed into a standout college basketball player.

And if onky Sacar had developed into a guy who far surpassed just about any Marquette Fan's wildest expectations for him

And if only Bailey and Theo had developed into legit Big East starters.

But yeah, I know, they all did that stuff DESPITE the horrible coaching they've received.

Yup.

[jesmu84]

Yeah, if I not Markus had developed into an All-American

And if only Sam had developed into a standout college basketball player.

And if onky Sacar had developed into a guy who far surpassed just about any Marquette Fan's wildest expectations for him

And if only Bailey and Theo had developed into legit Big East starters.

But yeah, I know, they all did that stuff DESPITE the horrible coaching they've received.

If nothing else, what about drastically improving players' ability to shoot? Cain and JJJ come to mind.

[Elonsmusk]

If nothing else, what about drastically improving players' ability to shoot? Cain and JJJ come to mind.

Cain's best year shooting was as a freshman.

Actually JJJ was better shooter as freshman than he was as sophomore (Wojo's first year.). Brett Nelson did do a whole rebuild on his shot, though and he finished out his career better.

[MU82]

In my opinion Markus and Sam came to MU with very polished games for freshman. There was some improvement, yet numbers increased primarily through an increase in usage.

Brendan is rounding into a nice player, yet he is the son of an NBA player, was Top 100 kid and is 22.6 years old, with relatively modest usage.

Theo has improved some and is what we thought we were getting - a physical, skilled defender with limited offensive skills.

Sacar has made great improvements and IMO the best example for this coaching staff to sell/model.

Think Wojo and staff's best attribute has been the ability to identify skilled high school players - often times earlier than other schools, and subsequently beginning recruitment sooner.

You're entitled to your opinion, as wrong as it often is.

[Lennys Tap]

You're entitled to your opinion, as wrong as it often is.

LOL, Mike - but which of the opinions expressed in the post you quoted do you disagree with and why? IMH(and perhaps also wrong)O Nets pretty much nailed it.

[MU82]

LOL, Mike - but which of the opinions expressed in the post you quoted do you disagree with and why? IMH(and perhaps also wrong)O Nets pretty much nailed it.

I don't agree with the general opinion that anything good that has happened at Marquette since 2014 has been despite us having the worst coach in history, and everything bad that has happened for Marquette basketball since 2014 has been the fault of the worst coach in history.

Specifics? For example ... Sure, Markus indeed might arrived at Marquette with "a very polished game for a freshman," as Ners stated. But a lot of very good players have arrived at Marquette over the decades without developing to the point of becoming an All-American as a junior and the nation's leading scorer as a senior. Obviously, poor Markus had to overcome Wojo's infamous de-motivation tactics to achieve it.

That kind of thing, Lenny.