KenPom Update

[Heisenberg]

Ranked 29 ahead of the DePaul game (game #22)

Currently 15-6 (5-4)

Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.
* 32% of winning at Nova is the one loss
* 51% MU wins against Seton Hall at home is the tightest game
* 54% change MU wins at Depaul and against Butler at home are the next tightest games. 
* The rest of the games are higher than 54%

If this happens, MU finishes 23-7 (13-5)


Here is the updated Kenpom game-by-game ranking this season versus last year.

[Johnny B]

Say my name..

[1SE]

Ranked 29 ahead of the DePaul game (game #22)

Currently 15-6 (5-4)

Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.
* 32% of winning at Nova is the one loss
* 51% MU wins against Seton Hall at home is the tightest game
* 54% change MU wins at Depaul and against Butler at home are the next tightest games. 
* The rest of the games are higher than 54%

If this happens, MU finishes 23-7 (13-5)


Here is the updated Kenpom game-by-game ranking this season versus last year.

You know that's not how probability works right? Having MU favoured in 8 isn't the same having MU going 8-1

[Heisenberg]

You know that's not how probability works right? Having MU favoured in 8 isn't the same having MU going 8-1

yes ... and that is why I started my comment with "if this happens."

I trust you now know what that means.

[Johnny B]

You ain't no heisenberg 2.0. You ain't even heisenberg  -2.0

[willie warrior]

Ranked 29 ahead of the DePaul game (game #22)

Currently 15-6 (5-4)

Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.
* 32% of winning at Nova is the one loss
* 51% MU wins against Seton Hall at home is the tightest game
* 54% change MU wins at Depaul and against Butler at home are the next tightest games. 
* The rest of the games are higher than 54%

If this happens, MU finishes 23-7 (13-5)


Here is the updated Kenpom game-by-game ranking this season versus last year.

Holy cow. Who wouldn't take 8-1 the test of the way. Is that number correct?

[1SE]

I feel like we have to go through this every year.

"KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way." is not the same as "KenPom has MU favored in 8 of 9 games the rest of the way"

This is a cumulative probability problem. I don't have access to the game-by-game probabilities, but making the simplifying assumption that each game is a coin flip to use a binomial probability calculator, the probability of MU winning 8 of 9 is 0.0195 - about 2%.

To get to a probability of MU winning 8 of 9 that is greater than 50% (What I might say is more in line with "KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way) they would need to be better than 82% favorites in EVERY game the rest of the way.

With all the game-by-game probabilities we could calculate the probability of MU going 8-1 using the the sum of independent binomial trials.


Using probabilities of .32, .51, .54, .54, .6, .6, .6, .6, .6 you get a ~ 3.4% probability of winning 8 of 9 games. If you can post the probabilities of other games I can calculate it more exactly.  The full probability table of (with Scoop poll results along side):

games   p(=)               p(>=)       poll exact      poll cumulative 9      0.00370053   0.00370053   0.019   0.019 8      0.03005874   0.03375927   0.012   0.031 7      0.1052208   0.13898007   0.086   0.117 6      0.2098784   0.34885847   0.358   0.475 5      0.2641576   0.61301607   0.389   0.864 4      0.2182891   0.83130517   0.123   0.987 3      0.1187199   0.95002507   0.006   0.993 2      0.04105179   0.99107686   0           0.993 1      0.008201051   0.999277911   0           0.993 0   0.000721972   0.999999883   0.006   0.999

Incidentally - the scoop poll is far more optimistic than these numbers with 47.5% expectation 11-7 or better compared to 35.8% from these numbers

[1SE]

Holy cow. Who wouldn't take 8-1 the test of the way. Is that number correct?

No - that's a misleading way for Heisi to put it - see my post just now.

[1SE]

Another fun aside - all these kinds of calculations rest on assumption of independence of events - i.e. you put each game behind you. If you think streaks matter (winning begets more winning, losing begets more losing) then we need to enter the realm of Bayesian statistics - but I've spent enough time on this already... 

[Shooter McGavin]

Thats where Tower had us even during Armageddon.  Hope it works out. It would be one hell of a regular season.

[1SE]

Thats where Tower had us even during Armageddon.  Hope it works out. It would be one hell of a regular season.

AAAHHH please read my posts - the probability of that (8-1) happening is about 3.4%!!!!

[🏀]

AAAHHH please read my posts - the probability of that (8-1) happening is about 3.4%!!!!

Hush up. Why don't you and your fellow nerds retire to the nerdery with your calculators.

[tower912]

I don't have time to go back and check right now, but I don't know if I ever said 13-5.    I said good team, similar record, and predicted 22-24 wins.   When many were saying the sky was falling.

Right now, I am feeling 21 regular season wins.   Going to need some post season success, both in MSG and the dance.

[Windyplayer]

AAAHHH please read my posts - the probability of that (8-1) happening is about 3.4%!!!!

Ok, I get it, so 9-0 is like 99% likely, right?

[1SE]

Hush up. Why don't you and your fellow nerds retire to the nerdery with your calculators.

[1SE]

Ok, I get it, so 9-0 is like 99% likely, right?

[TallTitan34]

For what it's worth his predicted game scores shows us going 13-5 but he still predicts we finish 10-8.

[Heisenberg]

For what it's worth his predicted game scores shows us going 13-5 but he still predicts we finish 10-8.

That does not update

[JakeBarnes]

Ok, I get it, so 9-0 is like 99% likely, right?

Sixty percent of the time it works every time

[brewcity77]

That does not update

Projected record? Yes it does. It updates constantly. It's just an aggregate of the sum of the percentages left in the season added to the current win total.

For instance, we are 5-4 in league. If you add all the percentages in our remaining 9 games, they total 5.17. So that gets us to 10 wins. If we lose to DePaul, that would drop us not only to 5-5, but to an aggregate win percentage below 4.4 (removing the 0.77 for DePaul and our ranking would drop so all of our future percentages would also decline) which would almost certainly give us a 9-9 predicted finish.

EDIT: For instance, Butler is currently listed at a 12-6 projected record in league. Their 5 current wins plus the 6.59 sum of the win percentages for their remaining 10 Big East games. To start the season, Butler was ranked 33rd, behind Villanova, Marquette, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Providence. Yet now they are projected to win more league games than three of those teams. That was certainly not the projection in November.

[dgies9156]

If we go 23-7 based on what's left for the year and win a couple of games in the NCAA, Coach Wojo should be Big East COY and possibly National COY.

I mean, think about it. We lose two key starters off last year's team, have a significant piece of our bench leave us, lose a key reserve (GE) for six games and still go 23-7.

Whoa! If Mane doesn't show up after that, well, then I'll become a bigger baseball fan, LOL!

We'll see what happens but I'm all in on 23-7 or better!

[brewcity77]

Right now it would be really difficult for Wojo to pass up Willard, much less guys like Brian Dutcher or Scott Drew. If we did finish 23-7 and 13-5 was good enough to win the league outright (seems unlikely) then I could see BECOY, but at this point those awards look pretty far out of reach.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Right now it would be really difficult for Wojo to pass up Willard, much less guys like Brian Dutcher or Scott Drew. If we did finish 23-7 and 13-5 was good enough to win the league outright (seems unlikely) then I could see BECOY, but at this point those awards look pretty far out of reach.

I said preseason I expected MU in the top 4. I thought MU had a better chance to win the BET as the team develops. I am still there pending health.

[WhoaJoe2020]

8-1??

BECOY???

National COY????

[Jay Bee]

Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.

If by "8-1", you mean "5-4", then yes, you are stating facts.