COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Skatastrophy]

It will be interesting to see what happens with cases vs hospitalizations as the vaccine is rolled out to more and more high risk groups, too.  Intuitively, it would make sense that as higher risk populations are vaccinated, we may see hospitalizations and deaths decrease even with steady case rates.  Even just nursing home vaccinations could have an impact.  Then again, if any of these new strains are more severe, that would probably be more than enough to offset any gains :/

Until we start rolling out to obese people (~50% of the United States) I would expect to see reduced deaths but same-ish hospitalizations.

[MU82]

Trump's "China travel ban" was toothless and poorly executed, which helped lead to the coronavirus being so devastating in the United States. Is Biden making a similar mistake?

From the NYT:

Australia crushed the spread of the virus in the spring partly by ending its voluntary quarantine and requiring all arrivals, including Australian citizens, to spend two weeks in a hotel. The military then helped enforce the rules. China and some other Asian countries took similar steps. In eastern Canada, tough entry rules were “one of the most successful things we’ve done,” Dr. Susan Kirkland, a Nova Scotia official, has said.

Travel bans had such a big effect, Dr. Jared Baeten, a prominent epidemiologist, told me last year, that public-health experts should re-examine their longtime skepticism of them. “Travel,” he said, “is the hallmark of the spread of this virus around the world.”

Last year, the U.S. became a case study in the ineffectiveness of limited travel rules after Trump announced a ban on entry from China. Because it didn’t apply to U.S. citizens or their immediate family members, among others, and because Trump did little to restrict entry from Europe, the measures had little effect.

The Biden administration now risks a repeat.

Infectious variants of the virus that are spreading in Brazil and South Africa could be even more dangerous than a strong new variant found in Britain, scientists say. In response, Biden is restricting entry from Europe, Brazil and South Africa, but the policy has multiple exceptions: Americans can return home from these places if they have recently tested negative, even though the test result may not be current.

The politics of travel bans are certainly thorny. Businesses worry about the economic impact (as The New Yorker’s Lawrence Wright noted in a fascinating radio interview with Terry Gross). Progressives worry about stoking anti-immigration views. And it’s already too late to keep the variants out of the U.S. entirely.

Yet travel restrictions can still save lives. The U.S. is in a race to vaccinate as many people as possible before they contract the virus, and the new variants are the biggest new challenge in doing so. “I am worried about these variants,” Dr. Vivek Murthy, the co-chair of Biden’s virus task force, said on the first episode of Ezra Klein’s Times podcast.

The U.S. travel restrictions will almost certainly have some impact by keeping out some infected people. But Biden’s policy stops short of minimizing the virus’s spread.

[Warriors4ever]

If we’re going to have travel restrictions, we should have actual restrictions. This nonsense of ‘suggesting’ people quarantine is absurd.

And I just read on TripAdvisor a report by a guy who flew from Ireland yesterday about a packed plane with people refusing to wear masks and sit down. Ridiculous.

[GooooMarquette]

If we’re going to have travel restrictions, we should have actual restrictions. This nonsense of ‘suggesting’ people quarantine is absurd.

And I just read on TripAdvisor a report by a guy who flew from Ireland yesterday about a packed plane with people refusing to wear masks and sit down. Ridiculous.

Agree. “Suggested“ quarantines are effectively useless, and mask requirements are beneficial only if they are consistently enforced. Of all people, you would think flight attendants would be comfortable enforcing requirements. They do it all the time with seatbelts and keeping people away from the cockpit, so a mask requirement should be no different.

[MU82]

If we’re going to have travel restrictions, we should have actual restrictions. This nonsense of ‘suggesting’ people quarantine is absurd.

And I just read on TripAdvisor a report by a guy who flew from Ireland yesterday about a packed plane with people refusing to wear masks and sit down. Ridiculous.

What airline? I think Delta and United are threatening to ban those kinds of a-holes for life.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

My 32 person shop skidded through 8+ months with no one infected.
In December we had two brothers on 2nd shift out with COVID.
This month the factory floor has been whacked.  We have more than 1/2 of the machine operators out right know and a few on contact quarantine.  Seems the bunch that came back positive had a hour+ long hangout together, without masks.   
I'm spending much more time in my office more than usual this week.

[Warriors4ever]

Aer Lingus flight to Chicago.

[GooooMarquette]

My 32 person shop skidded through 8+ months with no one infected.
In December we had two brothers on 2nd shift out with COVID.
This month the factory floor has been whacked.  We have more than 1/2 of the machine operators out right know and a few on contact quarantine.  Seems the bunch that came back positive had a hour+ long hangout together, without masks.   
I'm spending much more time in my office more than usual this week.

People get lazy and stupid, and let their guard down.

Viruses don't.

[rocky_warrior]

Viruses don't.

I now expect some scientific proof that viruses don't get/aren't lazy! 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Positive trends...From the NYT Morning Brief (no link)

"A 35 percent decline

The United States has never experienced a sharp and sustained decline in new coronavirus cases — until, perhaps, now.

Last year, new cases in the U.S. went through cycles of rising rapidly and then leveling off or falling only modestly. That was different from the situation in many other countries, where sharp drops sometimes occurred. Look at how much bigger the declines were in Western Europe.

New cases in the U.S. have fallen 35 percent over the past three weeks. Hospitalizations have dropped, as well. Deaths have not, but they have stabilized — and the death trend typically lags the cases trend by a few weeks.

“I like the trends we are seeing, and I am personally hopeful that things are going to get better,” Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “But there are a number of things that could also wrong.”

The good news
Let’s start with two possible explanations for the recent improvement:

1. We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.

Put those two groups together, and you realize that about one-third of all Americans have at least some degree of immunity from the virus. That may be enough to begin — begin — slowing the spread, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. explained on “The Daily.”

2. More Americans may be wearing masks and staying socially distant. Many still are not, as I saw on my recent 1,600-mile road trip. But any increase in safe behavior matters.

And there are signs of change. Multiple states tightened restrictions late last year. The country just elected a president who echoes scientific advice rather than flouting it. Some Americans may also be inspired by light at the end of the tunnel.

“I’m hearing from a lot of people that one of the reasons why they’re really hunkering down now is that it would be a shame to get a severe Covid case while waiting to get the vaccine,” Dr. Lee Harrison, the chairman of a local health board, told The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette this week.

Dr. Mark Escott, who runs the a local health agency around Austin, Texas, told the CBS affiliate there: “Folks are changing behavior. Folks are wearing masks, folks are staying home, and that is resulting in these decreasing cases.”

Dr. Alex Garza, a member of a pandemic task force in St. Louis, told The Associated Press: “The fact that this is happening in the winter when respiratory viruses typically spread the most shows us just how effective all the preventative measures actually are when we use them.”

[shoothoops]

COVID-19 response ranked by country/territory, using six criteria:

https://twitter.com/dadourado/status/1354805475255050240?s=19

[4everwarriors]

I now expect some scientific proof that viruses don't get/aren't lazy! 

Follow da science, kin, hey?

[GooooMarquette]

COVID-19 response ranked by country/territory, using six criteria:

https://twitter.com/dadourado/status/1354805475255050240?s=19

Not big surprise to see the US at 94th of the 98 countries ranked.

At least we 'beat' Iran, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil....

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ny-nursing-home-virus-deaths-155409236.html

Important article.  American's should have the full story.  New Yorkers most importantly.

[tower912]

There will be more.  Hence the assumption that there is a significant undercount of deaths from COVID.   Doesn't make it right or excuse it.   

[GooooMarquette]

Two cases of the new South African variant has been detected in the US. It is troubling that the cases are unrelated and neither seems to be related to recent travel. That seems to indicate that the variant is already spreading throughout the community. And existing vaccines seem to be less effective against it.

This comes after the Brazilian variant has been detected in Minnesota.

Ugh....

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/28/south-carolina-first-cases-of-south-africa-variant/

[Lennys Tap]

There will be more.  Hence the assumption that there is a significant undercount of deaths from COVID.   Doesn't make it right or excuse it.

??? This story has nothing to do with undercounting Covid deaths. It’s about the Emmy winning New York governor covering up how many nursing home folks his policies sentenced to death. Evidently, if you died at a hospital after being transported there from a nursing home, Cuomo’s minions didn’t count the dead as nursing home fatalities. We knew his “protection” of nursing home folks was abysmal (9000 dead). Now it looks more like 14000.

.

[tower912]

Under reporting deaths is exactly what this is about.   And NY was wrong.   Just like it was wrong to tell people to slow down testing.    There is plenty of wrong to go around.

[mu_hilltopper]

ok, so .. we're totally doomed: 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1354995265426616321.html

Global masking and vaccination is never gonna happen.   

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

ok, so .. we're totally doomed: 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1354995265426616321.html

Global masking and vaccination is never gonna happen.   

I mean yeah OK.

Look, you get most people vaccinated with something that is 85-95% effective and things will be pretty much back to normal.  Yes, people will get Covid varients and some will die from them, but the vast majority of society will be able to go on.

[forgetful]

ok, so .. we're totally doomed: 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1354995265426616321.html

Global masking and vaccination is never gonna happen.

I'm confident that we will have global leaders who believe in and follow science, and will invest on vaccinating countries that can't afford to vaccinate themselves.

Now, the problem is the more immediate one of stopping the spread so we don't get even worse variants.

[MUBurrow]

Let’s start with two possible explanations for the recent improvement:

1. We may be in the very early stages of herd immunity. Roughly 100 million Americans seem to have had the virus. (For every person who tests positive, three more have had it without being diagnosed, studies suggest.) Another 24 million people have received a vaccine shot.

Put those two groups together, and you realize that about one-third of all Americans have at least some degree of immunity from the virus. That may be enough to begin — begin — slowing the spread, as my colleague Donald G. McNeil Jr. explained on “The Daily.”

2. More Americans may be wearing masks and staying socially distant. Many still are not, as I saw on my recent 1,600-mile road trip. But any increase in safe behavior matters.

I'm late to the party, but I also think these two things play together in the way social groups self-select.  If for simplicity we say that 1 out of every 3 Americans has had it, what proportion of Americans who do not distance or mask have had it? Got to be higher right? So maybe there's legitimiate herd immunity building among those "high contraction risk" groups that is applying downward pressure on new infections, while the masked and distanced are continuing to keep their rates low by taking those measures. 

[rocky_warrior]

I'm late to the party, but I also think these two things play together in the way social groups self-select.  If for simplicity we say that 1 out of every 3 Americans has had it, what proportion of Americans who do not distance or mask have had it? Got to be higher right? So maybe there's legitimiate herd immunity building among those "high contraction risk" groups that is applying downward pressure on new infections, while the masked and distanced are continuing to keep their rates low by taking those measures.

I think the simple answer is too many Americans chose to gather & spread germs for the holidays, and numbers are rapidly falling from those events.  I don't think there's anything near herd immunity.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I think the simple answer is too many Americans chose to gather & spread germs for the holidays, and numbers are rapidly falling from those events.  I don't think there's anything near herd immunity.

This certainly happened in CT.  Measures are working to control spread but you see three distinct spikes.  Onset of cold weather-then more restrictions and downward trend- thanksgiving-Christmas.  After each spike it falls. 

Also if you subscribe to natural herd immunity you should check out Manaus.  We are no where near their first spike’s level of prevalence and they still got slammed again.

[rocky_warrior]

Also if you subscribe to natural herd immunity you should check out Manaus.  We are no where near their first spike’s level of prevalence and they still got slammed again.

Hearing the Manaus situation is becoming a HUGE concern in the US.  To those that have had it and think they may be "immune", please be careful.  To those that haven't had it yet - please continue to be careful.  These variants are kicking ass and don't even care what your name is.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/variant-covid-among-triggers-grim-surge-manaus-brazil