Updated trajectory ratings since MU joined new Big East

[Cheeks]

Some of our computer rankings at the moment are higher than last year.  The ratings capture how MU has done since joining the new Big East conference.  The lower the number, the better.








Final graph is number of NCAA wins since joining the new Big East...see below

[WhiteTrash]

Good stuff. I'd suggest you remove 2015 unless you want to piss off the Pro-Jo's. They will tell you that was a throw away season. Although, it would be interesting to see the trend line without 2015.

[Cheeks]

Good stuff. I'd suggest you remove 2015 unless you want to piss off the Pro-Jo's. They will tell you that was a throw away season. Although, it would be interesting to see the trend line without 2015.

Nah, 2015 was a rebuild year (I'd argue 2016 as well)...including them all.  The trendline directionally still slopes for improvement....even last year to this year is improvement, but it becomes flatter.

[Elonsmusk]

Can you illustrate this dating back to the year we joined Big East?

No doubt easier to improve "trajectory" when the first season turned in during Wojo's tenure was the worst at MU in perhaps 25ish years?

[muguru]

Can you illustrate this dating back to the year we joined Big East?

No doubt easier to improve "trajectory" when the first season turned in during Wojo's tenure was the worst at MU in perhaps 25ish years?

Definitely don't ask him to do it for the old Big East for Buzz, and remind him how many BE championships Buzz won in the toughest conference ever assembled, and then ask him to compare THAT to Wojo's tenure. He hates it because he knows Buzz was successful(a lot more than Wojo), so every time you bring it up, he just has to throw in off court stuff to try to deflect an argument he can't win based strictly basketball. 

[Cheeks]

Definitely don't ask him to do it for the old Big East for Buzz, and remind him how many BE championships Buzz won in the toughest conference ever assembled, and then ask him to compare THAT to Wojo's tenure. He hates it because he knows Buzz was successful(a lot more than Wojo), so every time you bring it up, he just has to throw in off court stuff to try to deflect an argument he can't win based strictly basketball. 

I'm doing apples to apples comparisons...we aren't in the old Big East, we're in the new Big East.  Wojo never coached in the old Big East.  Buzz coached in both the old and the new Big East.   

[Heisenberg]

This way we can see them

[Cheeks]

Can you illustrate this dating back to the year we joined Big East?

No doubt easier to improve "trajectory" when the first season turned in during Wojo's tenure was the worst at MU in perhaps 25ish years?

I think the bigger point is that even over last year our rating numbers are better.  I'll see what I can do, the data is very limited.  As an example, Sagarin goes back to 2000 at USA Today and that year we had a rating of 82. 

1991 (oldest RPI I can find), under KO...our RPI was 165...worse than anything Wojo has done.  Ken Pom is 2002...Sagarin was around in the 80's when I was at school, but the oldest one I can find in 2000.

[rocky_warrior]

Started a sheet using just Kenpom BE numbers.  Using the google chart trendline function.

Crean & Wojo.  Good trendline.
Buzz.  Bad trendline
Overall: Bad trendline

Playing with it - since 2012, good trendline.

[Elonsmusk]

I think the bigger point is that even over last year our rating numbers are better.  I'll see what I can do, the data is very limited.  As an example, Sagarin goes back to 2000 at USA Today and that year we had a rating of 82. 

1991 (oldest RPI I can find), under KO...our RPI was 165...worse than anything Wojo has done.  Ken Pom is 2002...Sagarin was around in the 80's when I was at school, but the oldest one I can find in 2000.

Great. Look forward to seeing what the graph looks like perhaps you can do one of these after next season too.

Wojo is doing a good job with this team, this year. I felt the fall off would be greater given the loss of Hausers.

However, we do have the leading scorer in D-1 hoops, and the best scorer to ever wear the MU Jersey. So. We should be pretty good with a player of Markus's caliber.

[Galway Eagle]

Are you using tableau for this?

[Cheeks]

This way we can see them

Thanks.  I'm using computer where they look fine, but this will help for mobile

[Cheeks]

Are you using tableau for this?

Old fashioned excel

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Started a sheet using just Kenpom BE numbers.  Using the google chart trendline function.

Crean & Wojo.  Good trendline.
Buzz.  Bad trendline
Overall: Bad trendline

Playing with it - since 2012, good trendline.

I love how one bad year in a decade run becomes the anchor point for all trend lines

[Cheeks]

I love how one bad year in a decade run becomes the anchor point for all trend lines

Again, doesn't have to.  Even last year to this year numbers have improved.  Look at the last 5 years if you wish, or 4 years.  The myth here has been Wojo hasn't improved....that is statistically absolute RUBBISH.

[rocky_warrior]

I love how one bad year in a decade run becomes the anchor point for all trend lines

Sigh.  Ok.  I removed Buzz's last year, and Wojo's first two.  Doesn't change the trendlines much...eh?

[tower912]

Great. Look forward to seeing what the graph looks like perhaps you can do one of these after next season too.

Wojo is doing a good job with this team, this year. I felt the fall off would be greater given the loss of Hausers.

However, we do have the leading scorer in D-1 hoops, and the best scorer to ever wear the MU Jersey. So. We should be pretty good with a player of Markus's caliber.

It is possible next year is a step back.   It is possible that with a Duke-like class we get Duke-like results.    Not worth worrying about yet.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Sigh.  Ok.  I removed Buzz's last year, and Wojo's first two.  Doesn't change the trendlines much...eh?

I'm not trying to be antagonistic. My point is that post big East arrival we had a great run that is fairly consistent.  As demonstrated by the fairly flat buzz line.  Post  NBE we took a step back (trend line or not).  Not really sure that the trend line is as meaningful as what appears to be a plateau at about 30. 

[panda]

It is possible next year is a step back.   It is possible that with a Duke-like class we get Duke-like results.    Not worth worrying about yet.

LOL

[Elonsmusk]

Sigh.  Ok.  I removed Buzz's last year, and Wojo's first two.  Doesn't change the trendlines much...eh?

Is "trendline" more important than where final season rankings finished and how the seasons ended?

Buzz went S16, S16, E8 in those last three years. Wojo?  Taking out his first two years?  NCAA 64, NIT, NCAA 64.

Wojo is doing okay. But it is pretty weak of Cheeks to try to make this comparison.

[panda]

Is "trendline" more important than where final season rankings finished and how the seasons ended?

Buzz went S16, S16, E8 in those last three years. Wojo?  Taking out his first two years?  NCAA 64, NIT, NCAA 64.

Wojo is doing okay. But it is pretty weak of Cheeks to try to make this comparison.

It takes a significant amount of mental gymnastics to spin the fact that Wojo is doing better than Buzz at this point.

[Elonsmusk]

It takes a significant amount of mental gymnastics to spin the fact that Wojo is doing better than Buzz at this point.

Well, mental gymnastics are par for the course for Cheeks.

[panda]

Well, mental gymnastics are par for the course for Cheeks.

That is the understatement of the century!

[tower912]

I think Buzz is a better coach than Wojo.   But that ship has sailed.   At the end of this season Wojo will have won between 105 and 110 games in years 2-6.   With a top 10 recruiting class coming in.  And no scandals.   Firing him now would be beyond stupid.

[rocky_warrior]

I can't speak for Chicos, I was curious about the trendline for a longer range (BE) as suggested earlier in the thread.

It's pretty clear the Amigos were a game changer, and greatly helped Creans 3 BE years.

Buzz greatly benefited the from the Amigos his first year, and then caught some lightning in a bottle cobbling together existing players and Jucos to level off around the mid 20s.  His last year was a disaster, and at that point he was trending the wrong direction (though we all would have given him a few more years to get his mojo back)

Wojo had a rough first couple years, but has settled in nicely, and appears to be trending in the correct direction.

As for NCAA success - I think we all want that.  I'm not arguing that Wojo is better than Buzz.  But he's also no doing as awful as some would like to believe.  I will point out, the "final" Kenpom numbers do include the results from Buzz's NCAA tourney runs.