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Author Topic: Updated projections  (Read 3872 times)

Cheeks

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Updated projections
« on: January 18, 2020, 04:18:51 PM »
MU back to 10-8 projection....two weeks ago it was 7-11 with one ranking.

Go Warriors.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Lennys Tap

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2020, 04:27:21 PM »
I would take 10-8. Would mean we were safely in, somewhere between a 6 and 10 seed.

Still hoping for better.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2020, 04:33:48 PM »
I would take 10-8. Would mean we were safely in, somewhere between a 6 and 10 seed.

Still hoping for better.

A 4 seed range?? Lol

We would be much better than a 10 at 10-8
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

Lennys Tap

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2020, 04:44:48 PM »
A 4 seed range?? Lol

We would be much better than a 10 at 10-8

7 and 10 seeds are interchangeable - the games are usually toss ups. They’re preferred over 8 and 9 seeds. If 10-8 put us tied for 4th or in 5th and we lose our first BEast tournament game I could see us as a 7 or 10. Sorry you find that possibility so outrageously remote.LOL.

BM1090

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2020, 04:46:11 PM »
7 and 10 seeds are interchangeable - the games are usually toss ups. They’re preferred over 8 and 9 seeds. If 10-8 put us tied for 4th or in 5th and we lose our first BEast tournament game I could see us as a 7 or 10. Sorry you find that possibility so outrageously remote.LOL.

Seems reasonable. I'd expect a 7 seed at 10-8.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2020, 05:01:43 PM »
7 and 10 seeds are interchangeable - the games are usually toss ups. They’re preferred over 8 and 9 seeds. If 10-8 put us tied for 4th or in 5th and we lose our first BEast tournament game I could see us as a 7 or 10. Sorry you find that possibility so outrageously remote.LOL.

HUH? the teams are usually interchangeable. But thats still 4 seed lines. Thats like me predicting a guy will be drafted 2nd-4th rounds. Bold.

And no, 10-8 would not be close to a 10.

We are not close to a 10 now. And that would mean 7-6 finish at worst.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

WhiteTrash

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2020, 05:52:41 PM »
A 4 seed range?? Lol

I hope you were not a math major. LOL.

fjm

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2020, 07:45:49 PM »
5 more wins gets us in.

6 more wins is solidly in.

Give me 7 more wins please.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2020, 09:27:52 PM »
HUH? the teams are usually interchangeable. But thats still 4 seed lines. Thats like me predicting a guy will be drafted 2nd-4th rounds. Bold.

And no, 10-8 would not be close to a 10.

We are not close to a 10 now. And that would mean 7-6 finish at worst.

A 7th seed is theoretically rated between 25 and 28 on the S curve. 10s are theoretically rated between 37 and 40, though often they are higher than 8s and 9s because a 10 is a more desirable seed (doesn’t face a #1 in round 2).

But “we’re not CLOSE to a 10 now”. LOL what do you think we’re rated, genius?




WithoutBias

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2020, 09:31:04 PM »
A 7th seed is theoretically rated between 25 and 28 on the S curve. 10s are theoretically rated between 37 and 40, though often they are higher than 8s and 9s because a 10 is a more desirable seed (doesn’t face a #1 in round 2).

But “we’re not CLOSE to a 10 now”. LOL what do you think we’re rated, genius?

Uh, what? Teams aren’t ranked 1-68 and called in order, being asked what seeding they’d like based on what’s available. If you’re ranked 29, you don’t get to pick to be a 10 seed because it makes for a more favorable draw. You’re seeded where you deserve to be, unless potential conference matchups or potential higher seeds getting bad locations based on matchups change those.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2020, 09:41:13 PM »
Uh, what? Teams aren’t ranked 1-68 and called in order, being asked what seeding they’d like based on what’s available. If you’re ranked 29, you don’t get to pick to be a 10 seed because it makes for a more favorable draw. You’re seeded where you deserve to be, unless potential conference matchups or potential higher seeds getting bad locations based on matchups change those.

All I know is that frequently #10 seeds are higher rated than 9s (and sometimes 8s).

We are currently #33 in Pomeroy and #35 in Sagerin - so “fair value” says a #9 seed. If things end that way I hope we get a 10 instead - it’s usually (IMO) an easier path.

Some additional information:

Average final Pomeroy ranking of 9 and 10 seeds over the last 3 seasons - 9 seeds = 41, 10 seeds = 38.

Every year the highest rated #10 seed was rated higher than any #9. In 2017 3 #10 seeds were rated higher than all the #9 seeds.

8 seed numbers are about the same as the 9s.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2020, 10:09:34 PM by Lennys Tap »

WhoaJoe2020

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2020, 11:06:07 PM »
All I know is that frequently #10 seeds are higher rated than 9s (and sometimes 8s).

We are currently #33 in Pomeroy and #35 in Sagerin - so “fair value” says a #9 seed. If things end that way I hope we get a 10 instead - it’s usually (IMO) an easier path.

Some additional information:

Average final Pomeroy ranking of 9 and 10 seeds over the last 3 seasons - 9 seeds = 41, 10 seeds = 38.

Every year the highest rated #10 seed was rated higher than any #9. In 2017 3 #10 seeds were rated higher than all the #9 seeds.

8 seed numbers are about the same as the 9s.

That's deep.

WithoutBias

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2020, 09:01:14 AM »
All I know is that frequently #10 seeds are higher rated than 9s (and sometimes 8s).

We are currently #33 in Pomeroy and #35 in Sagerin - so “fair value” says a #9 seed. If things end that way I hope we get a 10 instead - it’s usually (IMO) an easier path.

Some additional information:

Average final Pomeroy ranking of 9 and 10 seeds over the last 3 seasons - 9 seeds = 41, 10 seeds = 38.

Every year the highest rated #10 seed was rated higher than any #9. In 2017 3 #10 seeds were rated higher than all the #9 seeds.

8 seed numbers are about the same as the 9s.

What did the NET rankings show? And were the higher ranked 10 seeds in the same conference as the 1 seed in their bracket, or the lower ranked 8/9 seeds in the same conference as the 2 seeds in their bracket? And were the higher ranked 10 seeds closer to home than the 1 seed in their bracket for a second round matchup, or the lower ranked 8/9 seeds closer to home than the 2 seeds in their bracket?
« Last Edit: January 19, 2020, 09:04:00 AM by WithoutBias »

willie warrior

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2020, 09:03:42 AM »
MU back to 10-8 projection....two weeks ago it was 7-11 with one ranking.

Go Warriors.
10-8 is about middle of the pack. Prefer 14-4. After all, we have the Duke Wunderkind as our coach.

brewcity77

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2020, 09:05:52 AM »
What did the NET rankings show?

I'd look at NET & RPI. If I get a chance I'll try to dig into this later in the week, but I disagree wholeheartedly that the Selection Committee gives 10 seeds preference over 8/9 seeds. Three years is also a small sample. I'd look at 7-10 to make sure it wasn't a coincidence.

The Lens

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2020, 11:47:01 AM »
10-8 is about middle of the pack. Prefer 14-4. After all, we have the Duke Wunderkind as our coach.

Lol.  No kidding.  Wojo absolutely Tom Crean’d this.  Start out 1-3 so a 10-8 season feels great. 

We are elite

Elite at managing expectations.
The Teal Train has left the station and Lens is day drinking in the bar car    ---- Dr. Blackheart

Cheeks

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2020, 11:54:38 AM »
Lol.  No kidding.  Wojo absolutely Tom Crean’d this.  Start out 1-3 so a 10-8 season feels great. 

We are elite

Elite at managing expectations.

Second best conference in the country....no one said we were elite....elite unicorns went away in 1977
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Elonsmusk

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2020, 12:45:20 PM »
Second best conference in the country....no one said we were elite....elite unicorns went away in 1977

Interesting conference this year compared to last. League ranks 3rd in Pomeroy trailing Big 12 by minuscule amount. However league quality is much better compared to last based on EM of ~15.25% compared to 10.5% last year.

No top 10 teams at this stage for BE, with Butler and Seton Hall checking in at 10,11. Next is Nova at 26, then MU at 33.
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

muguru

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2020, 01:17:11 PM »
Second best conference in the country....no one said we were elite....elite unicorns went away in 1977

2nd best conference in the country, sure...but then tell me why a program like MU with the resources they invest can't reasonably be the best(or top 3 for sure) in the conference year after year?? Answer...they should be in comparison to other schools in the conference.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

tower912

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2020, 01:28:04 PM »
One year removed from a second place finish.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Cheeks

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2020, 01:49:50 PM »
Interesting conference this year compared to last. League ranks 3rd in Pomeroy trailing Big 12 by minuscule amount. However league quality is much better compared to last based on EM of ~15.25% compared to 10.5% last year.

No top 10 teams at this stage for BE, with Butler and Seton Hall checking in at 10,11. Next is Nova at 26, then MU at 33.

League was ranked second by Sagarin until a few days ago, still ranked second in some services.  Very tight with Big 12 for 2nd and 3rd based on which rating is used.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

willie warrior

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #21 on: January 19, 2020, 02:09:44 PM »
2nd best conference in the country, sure...but then tell me why a program like MU with the resources they invest can't reasonably be the best(or top 3 for sure) in the conference year after year?? Answer...they should be in comparison to other schools in the conference.
They should be, but are not. Coaching?????

Jay Bee

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #22 on: January 19, 2020, 02:10:31 PM »
No top 10 teams at this stage for BE, with Butler and Seton Hall checking in at 10,11.

wat

wadesworld

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2020, 02:18:55 PM »

Cheeks

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Re: Updated projections
« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2020, 02:22:37 PM »
They should be, but are not. Coaching?????

Here I thought we were in the top 3 last year.  This year isn't over yet...right?
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

 

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